yoda

Upgrades maybe? Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 326 PM EST Mon Jan 15 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure sliding to our south will bring widespread light to moderate snow to the region. The low pressure system will slide off the Delmarva coast Tuesday morning with arctic high pressure building in. Dry and cold conditions are expected midweek before another wave of low pressure and front approach Friday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... Snow will continue to pick up in intensity while overspreading the area from the south and west this afternoon. This is in response to a strong wave of low pressure ejecting out of the Tennessee River Valley and into the central Appalachians later this evening and into the overnight hours. The strongest lift with this system looks to arrive between 6pm-2am. This is when most of the area could see a period of moderate snow. Current 12z HREF guidance continues to hold on a general 3 to 5 inches of snow across much of northern/central MD and northern VA with even a few members hinting at amounts of 6"+ across northern portions of Frederick, Baltimore, Carroll, Harford, and Cecil counties (in the favored climo/Parrs Ridge zone). Elsewhere, a general 2-4 inches of snow is likely across much of the Shenandoah Valley, central VA, and southern MD. Some freezing rain may mix in on the tail end of the system across central VA and southern MD with warmer air trying to work in as it departs Tuesday. Winter Weather Advisories remain in effect for the aforementioned threats above. These advisories may need to be re- evaluated especially with forecast snow to liquid ratios running as high as 20:1 during the period of strongest upward motion this evening into the front half of the overnight hours. Mountain locations will see a touch more snow with accumulations ranging between 4 to 8 inches along and west of the Allegheny Front. This is due to the added lift from the terrain plus upslope component that looks to keep snow going through early Tuesday afternoon. Highest snow amounts look to be from Keysers Ridge south along Backbone Mountain and down toward Spruce Knob, WV where Winter Storm Warnings remain in effect. High temperatures will range from the teens over the mountains to upper 20s across most of the region. Lows will be quite similar overnight in the mid to upper 20s areawide outside the mountains. Low pressure will continue to lift north and east of the Delmarva coast Tuesday morning. Some light snow may linger over northern MD through mid-morning with upslope snow showers set to continue in northwest flow over the mountains through Tuesday afternoon. Highs Tuesday will range between the teens over the mountains to mid to upper 30s south/east of I-95.

Well shit... guess we're all fucked (no I didn't edit it at all... go read the afternoon AFD from LWX just issued and you'll see it yourself) Precipitation chances overspread the area overnight Thursday into Friday as model guidance indicates an area of low pressure developing and travelling up the east coast. With high temperatures forecast in the low to mid 300s for most (teens and 20s at higher elevations), any precipitation will be snow. We will continue to monitor this event as it gets closer in time. As the aforementioned upper level trough pivots out of the area, upper level ridging and high pressure at the surface build over the area. Upslope snow showers continue through Saturday afternoon along and west of the Alleghenies with dry conditions expected elsewhere through Sunday. Saturday will be the coolest day of the long term period with highs staying in the 20s for most. Those in metro areas or located near the Chesapeake Bay will get into the low 30s while higher elevations dip into the low teens.

Is the trashcan lid okay?

Visibility is at 0.75 miles at DCA and 0.5 miles at IAD on 3pm obs https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=lwx&issuedby=LWX&product=RWR

2-3

Almost there... Preliminary Local Storm Report National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 241 PM EST Mon Jan 15 2024 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0100 PM Snow Reagan National Apt 38.85N 77.03W 01/15/2024 M0.7 inch Arlington VA Official NWS Obs 0100 PM Snow Dulles International Ai 38.98N 77.49W 01/15/2024 M0.9 inch Loudoun VA Official NWS Obs

Oh URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 227 PM EST Mon Jan 15 2024 DCZ001-MDZ013-014-016-018-503>506-VAZ053>057-501-502-505-506-526- 527-160330- /O.CON.KLWX.WW.Y.0007.000000T0000Z-240116T1200Z/ District of Columbia-Prince Georges-Anne Arundel-Charles-Calvert- Northwest Montgomery-Central and Southeast Montgomery- Northwest Howard-Central and Southeast Howard-Fairfax- Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria-Stafford-Spotsylvania- King George-Northern Fauquier-Southern Fauquier-Western Loudoun- Eastern Loudoun-Northwest Prince William- Central and Southeast Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park- 227 PM EST Mon Jan 15 2024 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY... * WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 5 inches. * WHERE...Portions of central and southern Maryland, The District of Columbia and central and northern Virginia. * WHEN...Until 7 AM EST Tuesday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the afternoon and Tuesday morning commute.

Field is fine https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/39314436/sun-crews-busy-digging-snow-covered-stadium-bills-playoff-game-vs-steelers

Garrett/Western Highland/Western Grant/Western Pendleton upgraded to WSW

Thank you for your son's service and I pray your son stays safe

What about Fauquier?

4-6 DC to BWI metro on 12z NAM

Too late for us... its gone by 27

Still a bit of wraparound snow/ice at 12z TUES in the region per 12z NAM

Yup... 12z 3km NAM hits DC metro hard between 00z and 04z

Looks like 12z 3km NAM has the same idea as the parent NAM at 01z TUES

Thats's a NICE look at 03z TUES on 12z NAM radar

Both 12z NAM and the 12z 3km NAM bring mod snow back in by 17/18z looks like

Nearly an inch around DC and BWI metro

06z Euro QPF vs 00z Euro QPF

06z on top... 00z bottom image. Kuchera snow map

06z EURO slight increase in QPF and snow amounts compared to 00z

3 to 5

WWA up for Philly... 2-4

WWAs up