yoda
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Everything posted by yoda
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Small STW box for RNK CWA counties until 8pm
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LWX AFD about evening and tonight
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Weren't the models more suggesting evening time for us potentially? Like 6 to 10pm?
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The 17z PIT sounding upstream looked fine to me... waiting for the 18z KIAD one
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Where's the quickest to see the 18z RAOB? SPC sounding page?
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Where's our MD? Should be interesting to see what the 18z SPEC sounding from KIAD shows in about 20 minutes
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Oh I know... just it's a lil laughable that the same places have been SLGT or ENH for 3 days in a row now. We dont see that very often in our parts
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Lol 1730 SPC disco sounds good for tomorrow... then you look at where the slight risk is and then you have to laugh
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Pretty impressive looking sim radar
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Tornado watch coming for PA and NJ and extreme NE MD and northern DE
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I believe Eskimo Joe posted earlier that 12z IAD RAOB had convT of 89 degrees... so that's probably why the cap is breaking
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Blue box went up for Ohio into W PA and stopped there... maybe a red box for central and eastern PA in a lil bit? Just guessing as only PBZ counties are in the watch... no CTP counties
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Thank you for the clarification regarding the color
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1630 SPC probs and risk areas pretty much remained same... 30 wind and 30 hail for N VA into PA including DC/BALT metro areas... only real change was the 5% TOR was moved north slightly from N VA into N MD
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https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/2019/md0881.html Mesoscale Discussion 0881 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1106 AM CDT Wed May 29 2019 Areas affected...Portions of eastern OH...the northern WV Panhandle...much of PA...and NJ Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 291606Z - 291730Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon. Large hail and damaging winds should be the main threats, but isolated tornadoes will also be possible. Watch issuance is likely by 17Z (1 PM EDT). DISCUSSION...A shortwave trough over central OH and Lake Erie at 16Z will move eastward today across PA and vicinity. Isolated thunderstorms have recently initiated across central OH and northwestern PA in association with this feature. A belt of strong 50-65 kt mid-level westerly winds will be present across eastern OH, much of PA, and NJ today. Long, nearly straight hodographs through mid levels and related 40-50 kt of effective bulk shear should favor scattered splitting supercells early this afternoon. Large hail will probably be the initial concern with this convection, with some increase in the damaging wind threat with time as storms potentially congeal into one or more bowing line segments as they move east-southeastward across PA into NJ. A marine front located over the NYC metro area and adjacent northern NJ will likely limit the northeastern extent of the substantial severe threat this afternoon. In addition to the large hail and damaging wind risk, isolated tornadoes could also occur over mainly parts of central/eastern PA into portions of NJ to the east of a weak surface low where low-level southwesterly winds are forecast to be somewhat stronger. Watch issuance will likely be needed across this region by 17Z (1 PM EDT). ..Gleason/Thompson.. 05/29/2019
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Looks like it will be a red box too
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Well that was fast after the MCD was issued -https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0290.html URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 290 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 AM EDT Wed May 29 2019 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Extreme northeastern Kentucky Far western Maryland Panhandle Extreme southeastern Ohio Much of West Virginia * Effective this Wednesday morning and evening from 1150 AM until 700 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...A line of storms approaching the Ohio River will likely maintain or increase in intensity this afternoon, and other more isolated storm development will be possible across West Virginia. The storm environment favors organized clusters and perhaps some supercell structures capable of producing damaging winds and large hail.
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Off to our west in W VA -- https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0880.html
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tomorrow
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Might be our first day of HX around 100... the AFD mentioned that as well
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That makes sense... thanks
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Also decent SRH(near 200)... so maybe some embedded sups or mesovorticies?
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You sort of win... but its 5/30/30 for N VA and DC and MD into S PA
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May 2019 General Discussions & Observations Thread
yoda replied to Rtd208's topic in New York City Metro
That's for tonight... note the 0100 OTLK... that's from 9pm. The 0600 OTLK is the first new Day 1... around 2am -
Both 01z and 02z HRRR at the very end of their runs have storms exploding across the region around 19z