Jump to content

yoda

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    60,268

  • Joined

 Content Type 

Everything posted by yoda

  1. yoda
    They were as far south as the 1st row of counties in N VA (Fairfax/Loudoun/Clarke)
  2. yoda
    1630 SPC OTLK a bit more robust for us this afternoon re disco
  3. yoda
    Too late, you said TOR... so you just guaranteed a TOR day
  4. yoda
    Also looks decent for this afternoon around 21z-23z
  5. yoda
    Morning update from LWX AFD:
  6. yoda
    I thought Eskimo Joe would be more complaining about the Flood Watch in effect for him
  7. yoda
    From the 0100 OTLK from SPC:
  8. yoda
    Doubt they will even get here... but might want to watch the storms in W PA moving SE... have had occasional TW's with them
  9. yoda
    Interesting Day 1 and 2 updates from SPC... day 1 - today - is 2/15/5 with talk of cellular activity producing hail and supercell possible Tomorrow (Monday) talks about a potential bow complex coming through in the afternoon
  10. yoda
    00z GFS sim radar likes Monday night, Tuesday night, and Thursday night
  11. yoda
    https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1085.html Mesoscale Discussion 1085 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0948 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2019 Areas affected...Northern Missouri...eastern Kansas...and western Illinois Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 362... Valid 160248Z - 160345Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 362 continues. SUMMARY...The severe threat continues for WW 362. Additional watches are being considered. DISCUSSION...Regional radar shows a line of storms has developed a weak cold front extending from portions of western Illinois into northern Missouri and far eastern Kansas. In addition, a fairly well developed MCV is now associated with the northern end of this activity, now tracking into northern Illinois, and storms here are beginning to bow out. A few reports of large hail (1-1.5 inches in diameter) and strong wind gusts (60 mph) have occurred this evening. Given the ample supply of low-level moisture (high 60s to low 70s F dew point temperatures), instability (1500-3000+ J/kg MLCAPE), and deep-layer shear (40-45 kt effective bulk shear), the ongoing storms should continue to pose a severe threat, particularly across portions of north-central Illinois where a damaging wind threat may be emerging and thus, a new watch may be needed. Additional storms may develop farther west along the front extending into southeast Kansas, and thus may require an additional watch here. ..Karstens.. 06/16/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT...
  12. yoda
    00z NAM NEST lights up DC metro between 22z and 01z
  13. yoda
  14. yoda
    Well then, the 03z MON sounding at KIAD is certainly fun to look at from the 00z NAM
  15. yoda
    SPC even did a special MOD risk upgrade at 0146 UTC due to the damaging wind threat... 0100 OTLK was ENH
  16. yoda
    Mesoscale Discussion 1082 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0911 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2019 Areas affected...Western Oklahoma Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 364... Valid 160211Z - 160315Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 364 continues. SUMMARY...Significant damaging wind threat emerging in western Oklahoma. DISCUSSION...Storms that had developed earlier across the Texas Panhandle have grown upscale into a mesoscale convective system/bow echo that is now entering the western tier of counties in Oklahoma. This system has a history of producing significant damaging wind gusts of 80+ mph. Forecast soundings support the maintenance in the short-term, with steep low- and mid-level lapse rates, rich boundary-layer moisture (70F surface dew point temperatures), ample instability (4000+ J/kg MLCAPE), and a developing low-level jet. Outflow along the leading edge of the system has thus far kept pace with the convection, suggesting the threat for significant damaging wind gusts will continue for the next couple of hours across southwest Oklahoma and affect central Oklahoma by 04-05 UTC.
  17. yoda
    Nope, it's a real PDS STWatch
  18. yoda
    Waiting on the new 00z NAM... but 18z NAM soundings were pretty nice for 21z and 00z tomorrow
  19. yoda
    Does Dr. Dews change his avatar every day?
  20. yoda
    18z NAM soundings look tasty from 21z SUN to 09z MON
  21. yoda
    12z GFS soundings for KIAD and KDCA and KBWI at 00z MON (8pm Sunday) are pretty impressive considering its 60 hours out
  22. yoda
    00z GFS sim radar looks intriguing at 72 hours on 00z MON (8pm SUN) and then again at hours 93 and 96 as you go from 21z MON into 00z TUES and as you go on Wednesday into Thursday
  23. yoda
    Radarscope claiming rotation with the storm near Middleburg just a lil while ago
  24. yoda
    Looks pretty nice for Monday? Or is that Tuesday?
  25. yoda
    Pretty decent rain right now outside
×
×
  • Create New...