yoda

Looks like more coming to your west... maybe some training for you?

And yet you will say you received less than 0.10"

Some pretty nice soundings showing up on the 00z NAM tonight from 21z MON to 06z TUES Pretty much last chance saloon for storms for next 7 to 10 days

Pouring rain here again

It's quite sunny now

Probably don't count for very much at all, but both the 00z RGEM and 00z HRDPS rock DC metro at around 00z-01z FRI 00z 3km NAM looks like it has a tiny intense storm in DC at 00z too

Looks like a mature bow echo will be coming through overnight URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 406 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1020 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2019 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northern and central Alabama Northeastern Arkansas Central and northern Mississippi Southern middle and southwestern Tennessee * Effective this Wednesday night and Thursday morning from 1020 PM until 600 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... Widespread damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 80 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...A well-organized cluster and separate bow echo initially over eastern Arkansas, each with a well-developed wind signature and history of severe gusts, will proceed into and across the watch area. These systems could merge as well. Severe thunderstorm wind will remain the main threat, though an embedded tornado or two also is possible.

Looks like DFW lucked out

So your garden is now flooded lol

Looks like things are starting to get going west of DFW

Its boring... don't really have one per se... just complains about missing rain and how dry it is... nothing like the threads up here

Are you new to the SNE threads?

Mesoscale Discussion 1136 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0314 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2019 Areas affected...Northern Texas...far southern Oklahoma...southwest Arkansas...and far northwest Louisiana Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 192014Z - 192245Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...Storm development is expected by late afternoon/early evening. A watch is likely. DISCUSSION...Low-level southerly flow around 10 to 15 knots continues to advect high theta-e air northward across central and northern Texas in the wake of last night's MCS. A cumulus field has expanded and advected northward on the northern extent of this moisture rich air mass. The 19Z FWD RAOB suggests the air mass has mostly recovered from earlier convective overturning with deep boundary layer moisture and very steep mid-level lapse rates (~8.5-9 C/km) with dewpoints in the mid 70s and temperatures in the low 90s. This combination of a high theta-e air mass beneath very steep mid-level lapse rates has led to an extremely unstable air mass with MLCAPE around 4000 to 4500 J/kg. CINH has been mostly eroded now across this area with less than 50 J/kg on the 19Z FWD sounding. Surface streamline analysis shows the strongest low-level confluence just north of Abilene in the vicinity of an analyzed 1004hPa surface low as of 19Z. Initial convective development may occur in this area as early as 21Z where both buoyancy and mesoscale forcing will be most supportive. Additional storms may form eastward along the instability gradient as surface temperatures approach the convective temperature. In fact, recent 1-min GOES16 imagery shows some deeper towering cumulus development along what appears to be the remnant outflow boundary from the overnight MCS which is now lifting north. Any storms which develop should quickly take on supercell structures given the extreme instability and effective shear around 50 to 60 knots (57 kts FWD 19Z RAOB). Initial storms will pose the greatest threat for very large hail and a few tornadoes while storm mode remains discrete. Weak low-to-mid tropospheric flow will be a limiting factor to a greater tornado threat with the strengthening and elongating low-level hodograph not materializing until after 00Z once storm mode becomes less discrete. However, there is enough low-level cyclonic curvature in the lowest 1 to 2 km to support the potential for a few tornadoes. The environmental variables are very supportive for very large hail, including the potential for giant hail given the extreme instability, very steep mid-level lapse rates, and >50 kts effective shear. The only negative factor to a more widespread threat for giant hail will be the limited duration of a more discrete storm mode. Widespread storm coverage is expected between 00Z and 03Z due to the arrival of the mid-level shortwave trough and a strengthening low-level jet. A very large hail threat will remain for a few hours before the primary threat becomes damaging wind as storms congeal. There is significant wind gust potential given the extreme instability and the the steep mid-level lapse rates with the potential for wind-driven large hail, especially in the 01-04Z timeframe. ..Bentley/Guyer.. 06/19/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT...

Better view of it (h/t @radarman )

Just a little bit unstable on that 19z FWD sounding

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2019 Valid 192000Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL TX TO THE ARKLATEX... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEST-CENTRAL TX TO SOUTHERN IN... ...SUMMARY... Numerous severe thunderstorms are expected to develop by late afternoon across north-central/northeast Texas. Very large hail and severe wind gusts are expected. Other isolated severe storms are expected from western Tennessee into southern Indiana. ...North-central TX/Arklatex... Note: Some consideration was given to raising severe probs (MDT) across north-central TX. Very large hail and severe wind gusts are expected with convection into the late evening. Strong boundary-layer heating has developed across west TX into the DFW Metroplex where surface temperatures have risen into the mid 90s. This has resulted in a very unstable air mass along southern fringe of influential short-wave trough that will eject into AR this evening. 19z sounding from FWD is quite impressive with PW values >1.6", 40kt surface-6km shear, and steep lapse rates. Latest satellite imagery suggests a festering cumulus field just south of the Red River and thermals are expected to gradually deepen over the next few hours. Scattered supercells will develop and propagate east-southeast this evening through the Metroplex and northeast TX. Very large hail and damaging winds are expected. One or two tornadoes could be noted with discrete activity before clustering leads to a potential MCS this evening. ..Darrow.. 06/19/2019

MOD risk was discussed for 2000 OTLK... but SPC kept the ENH

LWX does mention ML Lapse Rates around 7.0 C/KM and fat cape... with sig amount in the hail growth zone on the soundings in their AFD:

This storm sounds like fun BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Amarillo TX 842 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2019 The National Weather Service in Amarillo has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Eastern Carson County in the Panhandle of Texas... Southeastern Hutchinson County in the Panhandle of Texas... Northwestern Gray County in the Panhandle of Texas... Southwestern Roberts County in the Panhandle of Texas... * Until 930 PM CDT. * At 842 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 4 miles southeast of Borger, moving southeast at 30 mph. This is a very dangerous storm. HAZARD...80 mph wind gusts and baseball size hail. SOURCE...Emergency management. At 837 PM CDT, emergency management reported an 86 mph gust on the southeast side of Borger. IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be severely injured. Expect shattered windows, extensive damage to roofs, siding, and vehicles. * Locations impacted include... Pampa, Borger, Panhandle, White Deer, Skellytown, Kingsmill and Codman. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... This storm is producing destructive winds and large damaging hail. SEEK SHELTER NOW inside a sturdy structure and stay away from windows!

Don't worry, another stalling front arrives Sunday into Monday

Good call... now SVR warned

Big time VIL just north of Mineral... near 80 kg/m2 with def hail core

STW Spotsylvania county

Louisa county cell looking intriguing