yoda

TW for Southern Kanabec County and SE Morrison county

Because trained spotters reported a funnel cloud

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 305 PM EDT Fri Jul 19 2019 DCZ001-MDZ004>006-011-013-014-503>508-VAZ052>054-505-506-200315- /O.UPG.KLWX.EH.A.0003.190720T1500Z-190721T0100Z/ /O.NEW.KLWX.EH.W.0002.190720T1500Z-190721T0100Z/ /O.CON.KLWX.EH.W.0001.000000T0000Z-190720T0100Z/ /O.CON.KLWX.EH.A.0004.190721T1500Z-190722T0100Z/ District of Columbia-Frederick MD-Carroll-Northern Baltimore- Southern Baltimore-Prince Georges-Anne Arundel- Northwest Montgomery-Central and Southeast Montgomery- Northwest Howard-Central and Southeast Howard-Northwest Harford- Southeast Harford-Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park-Fairfax- Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria-Western Loudoun-Eastern Loudoun- Including the cities of Washington, Frederick, Ballenger Creek, Eldersburg, Westminster, Reisterstown, Cockeysville, Baltimore, Bowie, Suitland-Silver Hill, Clinton, College Park, Greenbelt, Laurel, Camp Springs, Glen Burnie, Annapolis, Severn, South Gate, Severna Park, Arnold, Odenton, Germantown, Damascus, Bethesda, Rockville, Gaithersburg, Silver Spring, Lisbon, Columbia, Ellicott City, Jarrettsville, Aberdeen, Dale City, Manassas, Woodbridge, Lake Ridge, Montclair, Reston, Herndon, Annandale, Centreville, Chantilly, McLean, Franconia, Arlington, Alexandria, Falls Church, Purcellville, Leesburg, Ashburn, and Sterling 305 PM EDT Fri Jul 19 2019 ...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING... ...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 9 PM EDT SATURDAY... ...EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING... The National Weather Service in Baltimore MD/Washington has issued an Excessive Heat Warning, which is in effect from 11 AM to 9 PM EDT Saturday. The Excessive Heat Watch is no longer in effect on Saturday. * HEAT INDEX VALUES...Up to 114 due to temperatures around 101, and dewpoints in the mid 70s. * IMPACTS...Dangerously high temperatures and humidity could quickly cause heat stress or heat stroke if precautions are not taken.

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 305 PM EDT Fri Jul 19 2019 VAZ029-030-200315- /O.UPG.KLWX.EH.A.0003.190720T1500Z-190721T0100Z/ /O.NEW.KLWX.EH.W.0002.190720T1500Z-190721T0100Z/ /O.CON.KLWX.HT.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-190720T0100Z/ /O.CON.KLWX.EH.A.0004.190721T1500Z-190722T0100Z/ Page-Warren- Including the cities of Luray, Shenandoah, Stanley, and Front Royal 305 PM EDT Fri Jul 19 2019 ...HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING... ...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 9 PM EDT SATURDAY... ...EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING... The National Weather Service in Baltimore MD/Washington has issued an Excessive Heat Warning, which is in effect from 11 AM to 9 PM EDT Saturday. The Excessive Heat Watch is no longer in effect on Saturday. * HEAT INDEX VALUES...Up to 108 due to temperatures in the upper 90s, and dewpoints in the lower 70s. * IMPACTS...The heat and humidity may cause heat stress during outdoor exertion or extended exposure.

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 305 PM EDT Fri Jul 19 2019 MDZ003-VAZ028-031-WVZ051>053-200315- /O.UPG.KLWX.EH.A.0003.190720T1500Z-190721T0100Z/ /O.NEW.KLWX.EH.W.0002.190720T1500Z-190721T0100Z/ /O.CON.KLWX.EH.W.0001.000000T0000Z-190720T0100Z/ /O.CON.KLWX.EH.A.0004.190721T1500Z-190722T0100Z/ Washington-Frederick VA-Clarke-Morgan-Berkeley-Jefferson- Including the cities of Hagerstown, Winchester, Berryville, Paw Paw, Martinsburg, Charles Town, and Shepherdstown 305 PM EDT Fri Jul 19 2019 ...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING... ...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 9 PM EDT SATURDAY... ...EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING... The National Weather Service in Baltimore MD/Washington has issued an Excessive Heat Warning, which is in effect from 11 AM to 9 PM EDT Saturday. The Excessive Heat Watch is no longer in effect on Saturday. * HEAT INDEX VALUES...Up to 111 due to temperatures in the upper 90s, and dewpoints in the lower 70s. * IMPACTS...Dangerously high temperatures and humidity could quickly cause heat stress or heat stroke if precautions are not taken.

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 305 PM EDT Fri Jul 19 2019 MDZ016>018-VAZ036>040-050-051-055>057-501-502-200315- /O.UPG.KLWX.EH.A.0003.190720T1500Z-190721T0100Z/ /O.NEW.KLWX.EH.W.0002.190720T1500Z-190721T0100Z/ /O.CON.KLWX.HT.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-190720T0100Z/ /O.CON.KLWX.EH.A.0004.190721T1500Z-190722T0100Z/ Charles-St. Marys-Calvert-Nelson-Albemarle-Greene-Madison- Rappahannock-Orange-Culpeper-Stafford-Spotsylvania-King George- Northern Fauquier-Southern Fauquier- Including the cities of St. Charles, Waldorf, Lexington Park, California, Chesapeake Beach, Huntingtown, Dunkirk, North Beach, Lusby, Prince Frederick, Lovingston, Charlottesville, Stanardsville, Madison, Washington, Orange, Gordonsville, Culpeper, Falmouth, Fredericksburg, Dahlgren, Warrenton, and Turnbull 305 PM EDT Fri Jul 19 2019 ...HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING... ...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 9 PM EDT SATURDAY... ...EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING... The National Weather Service in Baltimore MD/Washington has issued an Excessive Heat Warning, which is in effect from 11 AM to 9 PM EDT Saturday. The Excessive Heat Watch is no longer in effect on Saturday. * HEAT INDEX VALUES...Up to 114 due to temperatures around 100, and dewpoints in the lower 70s. * IMPACTS...Dangerously high temperatures and humidity could quickly cause heat stress or heat stroke if precautions are not taken.

Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Buffalo NY 244 PM EDT Fri Jul 19 2019 NYC029-063-191915- /O.CON.KBUF.SV.W.0050.000000T0000Z-190719T1915Z/ Erie NY-Niagara NY- 244 PM EDT Fri Jul 19 2019 ...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 315 PM EDT FOR NORTHEASTERN ERIE AND SOUTHWESTERN NIAGARA COUNTIES... At 243 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Grand Island, or near Tonawanda, moving southeast at 30 mph. HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Expect considerable tree damage. Damage is likely to mobile homes, roofs, and outbuildings. Locations impacted include... Buffalo, Cheektowaga, Niagara Falls, West Seneca, North Tonawanda, Clarence, Kenmore, Depew, Amherst and Tonawanda. This includes Interstate 90 between exits 53 and 49.

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Buffalo NY 157 PM EDT Fri Jul 19 2019 The National Weather Service in Buffalo has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... East central Niagara County in western New York... Orleans County in western New York... West central Monroe County in western New York... Northern Genesee County in western New York... * Until 230 PM EDT.. * At 156 PM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line extending from near Albion to near Lockport, moving east at 35 mph. HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts and ping pong ball size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect hail damage to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles. Expect considerable tree damage. Wind damage is also likely to mobile homes, roofs, and outbuildings. * Locations impacted include... Rochester, Greece, Brockport, Medina, Albion, Gates-North Gates, Spencerport, Byron, Middleport and Oakfield.

Mesoscale Discussion 1524 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2019 Areas affected...Portions of northern Pennsylvannia...western/central New York Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 191738Z - 191945Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...A WW will be possible this afternoon as storms move into western NY/PA out of southern Ontario. Marginally organized storms will be capable of damaging wind gusts. DISCUSSION...Ongoing storms in southern portions of Ontario related to an MCV have begun to organize into a linear complex over the past hour. Updrafts have continued to deepen with an increase of 50 dBZ areal extent noted on the MRMS 5 and 9 km CAPPI. The downstream environment continues to destabilize with dewpoints broadly in the mid/upper-70s F and temperatures rising into the 80s F. By afternoon, temperatures rising into the upper 80s to low 90s F will support 2500-3000 J/kg MLCAPE. Modest shear profiles (25-30 kts 0-6 km) will support marginal storm organization. The main threat with this activity will be damaging wind gusts as objective mesoanalysis depicts 1000-1300 J/kg DCAPE. Downdraft potential will likely increase as low-level lapse rates steepen as surface heating continues this afternoon. Weak low-level rotation may occur with storms interacting with the lake breeze front. Overall tornado potential will be low, however. A WW is possible later this afternoon. ..Wendt/Guyer.. 07/19/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE...

No 1630 SPC OTLK yet

http://weather.uwyo.edu/cgi-bin/sounding?region=naconf&TYPE=TEXT%3ALIST&YEAR=2019&MONTH=07&FROM=1912&TO=1912&STNM=72403 925 was 24.2C and 850 was 18.4C... 978 was 27.0C FWIW as well

65% is the humidity, not the DP

Correct. But he wrote it went from MRGL to MOD... which it did not. 0600 was ENH and then went to MOD at 1300

Uh no... Day 1 0600 OTLK was ENH

In order to get a high risk for wind it has to be 60 percent hatched... 30 percent hatched or anything higher gets you the high risk for tornadoes

Of course I was also trying to remember how to do what @stormtracker did to me during the late winter months -- which was hilarious to be honest.

Its not even 11am yet

Interesting little tidbit (which I bolded below) in the update morning AFD from LWX... note the DP portion part though:

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0736 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2019 Valid 191300Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EAST-CENTRAL MN AND NORTHERN WI... ...SUMMARY... A regional outbreak of severe thunderstorms with strong tornadoes and potentially widespread significant wind damage may occur from central Minnesota across northern Wisconsin during the mid-afternoon to evening. ...Upper Midwest/Great Lakes... Upgrading to Moderate Risk this outlook for the potential threats of multiple strong tornadoes and a derecho later this afternoon and evening. CAPE/shear/SRH parameter space in this region is forecast to be exceptionally rare for mid July amid a predominately zonal flow regime across the northern states. A convective cluster is ongoing across north-central SD aided by warm/moist advection around 700 mb along a pronounced baroclinic zone. 00Z CAM guidance had a decent handle on this activity earlier this morning and are consistent with a decaying trend through late morning as advection shifts east amid pronounced MLCIN as sampled by the 12Z Aberdeen sounding. There is a low confidence scenario that a strong enough cold pool is becoming established with this early-day cluster such that total decay does not occur. If this occurs, robust boundary-layer heating downstream may be sufficient for an increasing threat during the afternoon of strong to severe wind gusts. This could still yield a scattered to widespread damaging wind scenario, albeit in an earlier time frame than progged by guidance. The more probable scenario is for an extremely unstable air mass (MLCAPE > 4000 J/kg) to become established to from southeast SD through central/southern WI as the elevated mixed-layer overspreads surface dew points rising into the mid to upper 70s. A surface cyclone over central SD should track towards the Twin Cities through early evening. Strong low-level convergence near/northeast of this cyclone along the warm front should sustain surface-based storm development across central into east-central MN. Once initiation occurs, intense supercells will develop rapidly, with an attendant threat for all severe hazards including strong tornadoes amid 50-60 kt effective shear and 0-3 km SRH > 300 m2/s2. The very warm/moist thermodynamic profiles will also support generation of strong cold pools which should eventually yield a bowing, forward-propagating MCS across northern WI into parts of northern Lower and Upper MI. Strength of the vertical shear suggests the potential for intense bowing segments capable of yielding a derecho with significant severe wind gusts.

Maybe this will mean we won't have to hear Ji complain in every winter thread... well, one can hope

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 322 AM EDT Thu Jul 18 2019 VAZ028-030-181530- /O.EXB.KLWX.EH.A.0002.190719T1400Z-190722T0200Z/ Frederick VA-Warren- Including the cities of Winchester and Front Royal 322 AM EDT Thu Jul 18 2019 ...EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING... The National Weather Service in Baltimore MD/Washington has issued an Excessive Heat Watch, which is in effect from Friday morning through Sunday evening. * HEAT INDEX VALUES...Potentially 105 to 110 degrees each afternoon. Heat indices will likely remain around 80 each night, greatly increasing the risk for heat related illnesses. * IMPACTS...Dangerously high temperatures and humidity could quickly cause heat stress or heat stroke to those outside or without access to air conditioning.

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 322 AM EDT Thu Jul 18 2019 MDZ003-VAZ031-WVZ051>053-181530- /O.CAN.KLWX.EH.A.0001.190719T1500Z-190720T0100Z/ /O.EXT.KLWX.EH.A.0002.190719T1400Z-190722T0200Z/ Washington-Clarke-Morgan-Berkeley-Jefferson- Including the cities of Hagerstown, Berryville, Paw Paw, Martinsburg, Charles Town, and Shepherdstown 322 AM EDT Thu Jul 18 2019 ...EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING... * HEAT INDEX VALUES...Potentially 105 to 110 degrees each afternoon. Heat indices will likely remain around 80 each night, greatly increasing the risk for heat related illnesses. * IMPACTS...Dangerously high temperatures and humidity could quickly cause heat stress or heat stroke to those outside or without access to air conditioning.

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 322 AM EDT Thu Jul 18 2019 DCZ001-MDZ004>006-011-013-014-016>018-503>508-VAZ052>057-501-502- 505-506-181530- /O.CAN.KLWX.EH.A.0001.190719T1500Z-190720T0100Z/ /O.EXT.KLWX.EH.A.0002.190719T1400Z-190722T0200Z/ District of Columbia-Frederick MD-Carroll-Northern Baltimore- Southern Baltimore-Prince Georges-Anne Arundel-Charles-St. Marys- Calvert-Northwest Montgomery-Central and Southeast Montgomery- Northwest Howard-Central and Southeast Howard-Northwest Harford- Southeast Harford-Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park-Fairfax- Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria-Stafford-Spotsylvania- King George-Northern Fauquier-Southern Fauquier-Western Loudoun- Eastern Loudoun- Including the cities of Washington, Frederick, Ballenger Creek, Eldersburg, Westminster, Reisterstown, Cockeysville, Baltimore, Bowie, Suitland-Silver Hill, Clinton, College Park, Greenbelt, Laurel, Camp Springs, Glen Burnie, Annapolis, Severn, South Gate, Severna Park, Arnold, Odenton, St. Charles, Waldorf, Lexington Park, California, Chesapeake Beach, Huntingtown, Dunkirk, North Beach, Lusby, Prince Frederick, Germantown, Damascus, Bethesda, Rockville, Gaithersburg, Silver Spring, Lisbon, Columbia, Ellicott City, Jarrettsville, Aberdeen, Dale City, Manassas, Woodbridge, Lake Ridge, Montclair, Reston, Herndon, Annandale, Centreville, Chantilly, McLean, Franconia, Arlington, Alexandria, Falls Church, Falmouth, Fredericksburg, Dahlgren, Warrenton, Turnbull, Purcellville, Leesburg, Ashburn, and Sterling 322 AM EDT Thu Jul 18 2019 ...EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING... * HEAT INDEX VALUES...Potentially 110 to 115 degrees each afternoon. Heat indices will likely remain between 80 and 90 each night, greatly increasing the potential for heat related illnesses. * IMPACTS...Dangerously high temperatures and humidity could quickly cause heat stress or heat stroke to those outside or without access to air conditioning.

A magical STWatch has been issued for us until midnight

Storms should improve in strength as they near the i95 corridor