yoda

And an okay MCD... no watch likely here but maybe just to our north or NW in PA/W MD https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1744.html

No

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 858 PM EDT Tue Aug 13 2019 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... The City of Fairfax in northern Virginia... Central Fairfax County in northern Virginia... The City of Manassas Park in northern Virginia... Central Prince William County in northern Virginia... The City of Manassas in northern Virginia... * Until 930 PM EDT. * At 858 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Bull Run, or near Centreville, moving east at 25 mph. HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by downed trees. Localized power outages are possible. Unsecured light objects may become projectiles. * Locations impacted include... Centreville, Reston, Fairfax, Vienna, Mantua, Burke, Linton Hall, Oakton, Chantilly, Wolf Trap, Merrifield, Bull Run, Newington, Manassas, West Springfield, Sudley, Manassas Park, Fairfax Station, Ravensworth and Clifton.

What's that? Its a STW for us heading toward DC LOL https://mobile.twitter.com/NWS_BaltWash/status/1161441971140829184?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^embeddedtimeline|twterm^profile%3ANWS_BaltWash|twcon^timelinechrome&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.weather.gov%2Flwx%2F

Radarscope suggests that we see a quick storm shortly lol

@mattie g Getting thunder here

Maybe DC? BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 744 PM EDT Tue Aug 13 2019 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Eastern Shenandoah County in northwestern Virginia... Central Warren County in northwestern Virginia... Northwestern Fauquier County in northern Virginia... North central Rappahannock County in northwestern Virginia... * Until 830 PM EDT. * At 743 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 7 miles south of Strasburg, moving east at 25 mph. HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and half dollar size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by downed trees. Localized power outages are possible. Unsecured light objects may become projectiles. * Locations impacted include... Front Royal, Hume, Linden, Chester Gap, Huntly, Arco, Howellsville, Seven Fountains, Dilbeck, Riverton, Karo, Glen Echo, Blue Mountain, Markham and Riverside.

Yet there is more rain incoming for you

You have mentioned the Storm That Must Not Be Named

I'm going to use a D20 for a saving roll for severe weather this afternoon

Its a light to maybe moderate rain for right now to be honest here, but its been raining for the past 15-20 minutes ETA: Def moderate rain right now here

Raining here... @mattie g is probably angry lol

Lol have to Quote this for posterity for the winter when you change your mind and call the Euro OP the best

I see the sun lol

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1719.html Mesoscale Discussion 1719 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1000 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2019 Areas affected...central and southern Illinois...southern Indiana...and into parts of western Kentucky Concerning...Tornado Watch 575... Valid 130300Z - 130500Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 575 continues. SUMMARY...Strong/severe storms have become well-established across central Illinois and vicinity. Damaging winds will likely become the primary severe risk, though tornado risk continues across central Illinois. DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows a band of convection in a roughly west-to-east band across central Illinois, that continues to shows signs of gradual upscale growth. However, updrafts still remain sufficiently separated spatially to reveal pronounced supercell characteristics in radar imagery, including a few strongly rotating cells. One such cell -- which appears likely to have been producing a tornado over the past half hour -- has now moved into northern Shelby County Illinois. With time, expect upscale growth to continue, with storms likely evolving into an east-southeastward-moving storm complex, where damaging winds would likely become the primary severe risk. This could require southeastward watch issuance later this evening. In the mean time, risk for damaging winds and a tornado or two will continue in the short term. ..Goss.. 08/13/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX...

Well the new TW says radar indicated but nothing on the ground apparently BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Tornado Warning National Weather Service Lincoln IL 949 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2019 The National Weather Service in Lincoln has issued a * Tornado Warning for... Central Shelby County in central Illinois... * Until 1015 PM CDT. * At 949 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located east of Assumption, or 11 miles northwest of Shelbyville, moving east at 35 mph. This storm has a history of producing a confirmed tornado. HAZARD...Tornado and quarter size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. * This dangerous storm will be near... Westervelt around 1000 PM CDT. Shelbyville and Findlay around 1005 PM CDT. Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include Eagle Creek State Park and Wolf Creek State Park.

Well then... looks like someone at CWG thinks tomorrow could be interesting severe weatherwise

And there is the Tornado Watch issuance

ENH risk kept... tor probs dropped to 5 percent... wind still 30 but hatching removed

Which is delayed a few minutes...

Um, Presidents Day Blizzard? 18.7" at DCA? Caught the region off guard?

The 0100z SPC OTLK also should be out shortly - in the next 30 minutes or so - that should be an interesting read as well

@high risk How does the apparent lack of convection so far in the ENH day 1 affect us? Also, seems that there is a lessening of the risk for a convective complex developing reading the latest AFD from Chicago NWS

Might just be me... but kind of surprised no MCDs are out yet for the area

I do like the talk of the cold pool though tbh