yoda

So... Wiz played Adebayo tonight pretty much

Sources claim Crosby failed physical

Wow... LWX went all out with a long, detailed, and excellent afternoon discussion for tomorrow KEY MESSAGES... - 1) Severe Thunderstorms are possible Wednesday afternoon and evening. - 2) Well above normal temperatures through Wednesday afternoon. - 3) A series of cold fronts crossing the area into early next week will lead to multiple temperature swings. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Severe Thunderstorms are possible Wednesday afternoon and evening. Tomorrow`s forecast is an extremely challenging one. At this point, there`s a wide range of potential solutions on the table, with very low confidence in which solution will ultimately verify. Forecast details follow below... A potent northern stream trough will continue to amplify as it tracks eastward from the Northern Plains toward the Great Lakes during the day tomorrow. A corresponding surface low will deepen as it tracks northeastward from Lower Michigan across the Lower Great Lakes and into the St. Lawrence Valley. The low-level mass response to the deepening cyclone will lead to strengthening low-mid level winds, as a 700 mb jet of 50-70 knots develops over the Ohio Valley tomorrow morning, and then spreads northeastward over our forecast area by peak heating tomorrow afternoon. Southerly flow at low- levels will draw deeper moisture (low 60s dewpoints) northward into the area, which when combined with daytime heating (surface temps climbing into the upper 70s and lower 80s) will lead to surface- based destabilization (MLCAPE values around 500-1500 J/kg). Assuming that storms occur, the environment in place with MLCAPE values of 500-1500 J/kg and effective bulk shear values of around 50 knots (with nearly all of it below 700 mb) will be very favorable for the development of severe thunderstorms. However, many questions remain with respect to the coverage of storms, the storm mode, hodograph shape, and resultant storm impacts locally. 00z/12z CAM guidance is in good agreement that there will be plenty of ongoing convection tonight upstream in the Ohio Valley. Some of this activity will likely impact the West Virginia Panhandle, western Maryland, and potentially north-central Maryland tomorrow morning. Much of this activity will likely be elevated in nature, but some heavier downpours, lightning, and maybe even a little small hail may be possible during the morning hours as this activity moves through. Further south and east, conditions will likely remain dry through the morning, with daytime heating occurring through a broken cloud deck. Forecast uncertainty increases moving into the afternoon hours, with various sources of model guidance advertising a wide array of potential solutions. On one extreme lies the 3km NAM, which fails to produce any additional storms after the elevated activity moves through during the morning. Inspection of 3km NAM forecast soundings shows strong capping, which in turn inhibits the development of new storms. A tendency toward under-mixing and overcapping is a well known forecast bias of the 3km NAM. In this type of scenario, there would be no severe weather threat across the bulk of the forecast area tomorrow. A potential exception would be with any remnant squall line moving into the Alleghenies from the Ohio Valley tomorrow evening. On the other end of the spectrum lies the HRRR, which produces numerous additional storms during the afternoon and evening hours. Most of these storms actually form upstream in the Ohio Valley during the morning and persist into the forecast area during the mid afternoon to evening hours. Inspection of HRRR forecast soundings shows much deeper mixing, which is unsurprising, since overmixing/undercapping is a known bias of the HRRR. In terms of storm mode, the HRRR solution shows both supercells and smaller bowing segments. Other sources of guidance lie somewhere between these scenarios. The Hi-Res Canadian falls into the 3km NAM camp, keeping things capped and producing no additional storms locally. The FV3 is the next lowest in terms of storm coverage, only producing a few isolated cells, primarily across northern Maryland and northern portions of the West Virginia Panhandle. The RRFS also keeps activity predominantly confined to northern WV/MD, but more in the form of an organized squall line. The WRF-ARW develops a much larger QLCS/squall line with embedded bowing segments out of pre-exisiting convection that emanates out of southern WV. In that scenario, the QLCS could would impact most of the forecast area. The WRF-NSSL is much different that any of the above solutions, tracking a strong, elevated QLCS across northern MD during the morning hours, which lays out an east-west oriented outflow boundary. Then in the afternoon, it has a string of intense, isolated supercells developing along the differential heating boundary produced by the outflow, which then track eastward across northern Maryland. Beyond the differences in convective evolution/mode, there are also significant hodograph shape differences between the models. More overmixed models like the HRRR show close to straight hodographs, while undermixed models like the 3km NAM show much more hodograph curvature. The WRF-NSSL shows the greatest hodograph curvature of all, as a result of the remnant outflow boundary. The uncertainty with respect to convective mode and hodograph curvature cascades into uncertainty with regard to the potential hazards as well. The environment in place will make damaging winds possible with any storms that form. However, that threat would likely be maximized in scenarios that produce a more linear convective mode, with a QLCS or smaller bowing segments. A more cellular mode would likely lead to supercells, a greater threat for both severe hail and tornadoes, and lesser areal coverage of damaging winds compared to a linear mode. At the moment SPC has most of the area outlooked in a Slight Risk, driven by damaging wind potential. They also have a 5 percent hail contour, and 2/5 percent tornado contours, along with a CIG 1 hatching (suggesting that a reasonable max tornado intensity of EF-2, if a tornado were to occur). The CIG1 hatching hints at the higher end potential of the severe threat tomorrow. There is no CIG 1 hatching for wind tomorrow, but hurricane force gusts (74+ mph) are needed to justify wind hatching. It wouldn`t be a shock to see some 60-70 mph gusts in any bowing segments, if storms do occur. With the high level of forecast uncertainty, following observations will be critical over the next 24 hours. The level of mid-level capping, along with how upstream convection over the Ohio Valley evolves will be critical factors in determining what ultimately occurs here tomorrow. A brief summary of the main takeaways follows below: -Forecast uncertainty is very high tomorrow. Plausible scenarios range from no severe thunderstorms at all, to a very impactful severe thunderstorm event. -Confidence in elevated storms impacting the WV Panhandle/western MD tomorrow morning is high, but those storms likely won`t pose much of a severe threat. -Any storms that do form tomorrow afternoon will likely turn severe, posing at least a threat for damaging winds, and potentially large hail and tornadoes too (if the storm mode is supercellular). -The timing of the most intense storms is expected to be in the afternoon and evening hours, with the strongest storms (if they occur at all) expected to move through the I-95 corridor between roughly 3 and 8 PM. -A squall line will likely approach from the Ohio Valley and track toward the Alleghenies tomorrow evening, but will likely be weakening as it does so. Any severe threat with this line will likely stay confined to along/west of the Allegheny Front.

True. Interesting to note LWX in the morning AFD noted that they thought the CIG 1 would come further east due to the potential

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/conditional-intensity-information/ For those that missed it re the CIG

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are expected on Wednesday from the ArkLaTex and Lower Mississippi Valley northeastward through the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic. ...Synopsis... Another day of scattered severe weather is anticipated for Wednesday. Two upper waves - evident in early-afternoon water-vapor imagery over the northern Rockies and northern Mexico - will traverse eastward over the next 24 hours. Substantial amplification of the northern wave is expected as it migrates into the upper OH Valley through the day. Strong broad-scale ascent ahead of the wave and within the left-exit region of a strengthening upper jet will promote steady intensification of a surface cyclone as it progresses from the Great Lakes into southeastern Quebec by Thursday morning. A broad fetch of southerly flow will support poleward moisture return as far north as the upper OH Valley by Wednesday afternoon. A trailing cold front attendant to the surface low will push east/southeast through the day, reaching the Mid-Atlantic and northern Gulf Coast by 12 UTC Thursday. Strong to severe thunderstorm chances will be focused along and ahead of this front through the day as it pushes east/southeast. ...Upper OH Valley... A corridor of higher severe wind, and perhaps tornado, potential may emerge across OH into parts of WV and western PA Wednesday morning into the afternoon hours. Latest guidance shows reasonably good agreement in a swath of pre-frontal 40-50 knot flow within the lowest kilometer overspreading the upper OH Valley. Within this strong flow field, guidance also depicts a pronounced plume of higher theta-e values advecting northward along the western Appalachians. The intersection of the strong flow with subtle low-level warm advection will likely support a corridor of regionally higher buoyancy and enhanced effective SRH (on the order of 200-300 m2/s2) favorable for well-organized convection, including supercells. The primary uncertainty pertains to antecedent storm coverage across the region during the morning hours. Residual convection from late Tuesday night will likely linger over the mid/upper OH Valley, though guidance shows some uncertainty regarding coverage and intensity of this activity. Sparse storm coverage should help maximize diurnal destabilization and will support a more robust severe threat. Greater coverage of morning convection will act to modulate the thermodynamic environment by muting the influence of daytime heating and the northward extent of richer moisture. Regardless, updraft/UH signals in CAM ensembles and recent calibrated guidance depict a corridor of stronger convection across far eastern IN into OH, WV, and southwest PA. Increased wind probabilities (30%) have been introduced across this corridor where one or more rounds of storms within a strong flow field will pose a threat for damaging/severe winds. Higher risk categories may be needed if morning storm coverage is minimal and a more potent thermodynamic environment emerges.

Oh @high risk @Kmlwx @Eskimo Joe

SLGT risk pushed further south and eastward all the way to the coast on the 1730z

Tor driven moderate on the day 1 1630z OTLK

Oh ok (morning AFD from LWX) KEY MESSAGE 2...Severe thunderstorms are possible Wednesday afternoon and evening as a strong cold front pushes through; a significant drop in temperatures and gusty winds will accompany the front Thursday. A deep, digging, positively northern stream trough and its associated strong cold front dive out of the Great Lakes Wednesday. The cold front crosses the area late Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Meanwhile, southern stream energy will be lifting northward ahead of the boundary Wednesday afternoon and evening. All of this creates a very complex severe weather setup across the region. The latest update from the Storm Prediction Center expanded the Slight Risk (level 2 out of 5) to include most of the area. However, it does come with some caveats, which I`ll reiterate here. Primary among them is the question of ongoing morning showers/convection, and the potential impact that could have no destabilization during the afternoon. As is typical, model guidance is very split on how much instability is able to recover ahead of the pre-frontal trough that will be the primary severe threat on the day. I do think that seeing the latest CAM guidance in favor of 750-1250 J/kg of CAPE being able to develop has me a bit more concerned. Assuming that we do get adequate CAPE, storms will fire along a pre-frontal trough during the early afternoon hours across eastern WV before moving east towards the metros during the evening. The environment where storms may develop will be impressive from a shear standpoint, with 40-50 kts of deep-layer shear, and substantial amounts of Storm Relative Helicity (150+ m2/s2 0-1km, and 400+ m2/s2 in the 0-3 km layer). This is more than favorable for supercell structures to develop, with damaging winds, large hail, and even a tornado or two not out of the question. Looking at the combination of shear and instability, the STP is actually pretty impressive in model guidance. For this reason, there is actually a CIG1 hatched area in our 2-5% tornado probabilities across western MD and into the Potomac Highlands. I wouldn`t even argue having with having that threat even extended a bit further east along the MD/PA border in a future update, but will let the 12z CAMs and machine learning guidance come in for evaluation. Additionally, damaging winds, large hail, and heavy rainfall will all be threats with any storms that develop on Wednesday afternoon. At any rate, Wednesday afternoon/evening is a day to watch closely. Have your severe weather plans ready, in case you find yourself needing to act on them. Continue to monitor the latest forecasts from our office, as well as the Storm Prediction Center, for the latest updates. Confidence drops off significantly with the severe threat along the immediate cold front given the projected timing late evening into the overnight period. Even with that said, a gusty line of showers could exist Wednesday night into Thursday as the front pushes through. Would expect this to be more along the lines of a gusty surge along the front (30-40 mph), followed by increased synoptic winds shortly thereafter.

Day 2 SLGT for all

Interesting... SPC AC 091925 Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 PM CDT Mon Mar 09 2026 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST TEXAS AND THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are expected on Wednesday from the ArkLaTex and Lower Mississippi Valley northeastward through the Ohio Valley vicinity. ...Synopsis... Strong to severe thunderstorms are probable across an expansive warm sector stretching from the Gulf Coast northward into the upper Ohio Valley region. The amplification of an upper wave over the northern CONUS will support steady intensification of a surface cyclone as it migrates from the Great Lakes region into southeast Quebec by 12 UTC Thursday. An attendant cold front will push across the MS Valley into the upper OH Valley and Southeast states during the forecast period, and will act as the primary foci for thunderstorm development. ...East Texas into the Lower MS Valley... Thunderstorm clusters and/or convective bands will likely be ongoing, albeit weakening, across the eastern TX/OK at the start of the forecast period. A combination of daytime heating, ascent ahead of a southern-stream upper trough, and forcing along the approaching cold front should promote an uptick in convective intensity and coverage by late morning/early afternoon across LA and MS. Storm-motion vectors largely along the front will maintain a linear storm mode and support primarily a severe wind threat. The severe threat may be maximized during the late morning/early afternoon hours as buoyancy increases but before low to mid-level flow decreases as the synoptic low accelerates away to the northeast. ...OH Valley... Low-level moisture and a remnant EML will continue to spread north/northeast in tandem with the translation of the surface low. This should support adequate buoyancy within a narrow, but migratory, warm sector for surface-based convection. Strong flow in proximity to the surface low/upper jet will promote organized convection along the front, most likely organized clusters and lines capable of severe gusts and perhaps embedded circulations. Recent extended-range RRFS solutions hint at the development of pre-frontal supercells within a diffuse plume of low-level theta-e advection across the upper OH Valley. Forecast soundings from this region suggest that tornadic supercells are possible. Other guidance also depicts this plume of theta-e advection, which lends some credence to this scenario. However, the RRFS is typically overly aggressive with convective intensity, and recent MPAS solutions are less bullish on deep convection ahead of the front where mostly cloudy skies should limit diurnal insolation to some degree. This uncertainty precludes the introduction of higher risk probabilities, but trends will be monitored for a more robust severe threat within this regime. ..Moore.. 03/09/2026

Good afternoon discussion from LWX KEY MESSAGE 2... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible west of I-95 Wednesday afternoon and evening as a strong cold front pushes through. A significant drop in temperatures and gusty winds will accompany the front Thursday. Still monitoring the progression of a deep digging positively northern stream trough out of the Great Lakes and it`s associated strong cold front which looks to cross the area during the late Wednesday into Thursday timeframe. Meanwhile, southern stream energy will be lifting northward ahead of the boundary Wednesday afternoon and evening. SPC currently has a Slight Risk (Level 2 out 5) west of a line from from Frederick/Hagerstown, MD southwest toward Strasburg/Harrisonburg/Monterey, VA. There is a Marginal Risk (Level 1 out of 5) east of these areas (including both the DC/Baltimore metros) with a focus mainly west of I-95. The primary threat with storms would be wind and locally heavy rainfall. Secondary threats would include an isolated tornado given the increased shear/helicity and large hail with dry air aloft. CSU probabilities remain between 15 to 30 percent for all severe hazards areawide while NSSL/NCAR probs generally focus on areas, mainly west of US-15 and in particularly west of the Blue Ridge. CIPS probabilities remain less than 10 percent for this event. Plenty of uncertainty remain in regards to the severe weather threat Wednesday into Thursday. Timing will be important along with cloud cover. 6z/12z model soundings from KCHO, KIAD, and KHGR all have hints of a capping inversion which could squander convective development. The question is to if the cap breaks and to when it happens with a focus west of Frederick, MD down toward the I-66/US- 50 corridor and points west per the latest CAM guidance. One or two strong storms could fire within the warm sector Wednesday afternoon along a lead shortwave trough out ahead of the cold frontal boundary. Any of these storms could become severe (i.e either multicellular clusters or supercells) given the added shear and instability to work with. Confidence drops off with the severe threat along the immediate cold front given the projected timing late evening into the overnight period. Even with that said, a gusty line of shower could exist Wednesday night into Thursday as the front pushes through. The severe threat diminishes Thursday as the front pushes through. Expect any residual moisture over the mountains to change to snow with coating to 1" expected on grassy/elevated surfaces.

SPC opens Day 3 severe bidding with SLGT risk i81 corridor west and MRGL for the rest of us

12z NAM looked a lil intriguing with its soundings at hrs 78 to 84 across the region. Granted it can change next run of course and its at range... but looks like our first real chance of severe

LWX AFD from this afternoon on Wednesday into Thursday KEY MESSAGE 2.. A strong cold front brings gusty winds, colder temperatures, and widespread shower/thunderstorm chances starting Wednesday. Not too much change in regards to timing or hazards for the midweek period. Still monitoring the deep digging upper level trough dropping down out the Great Lakes region as well as a piece of southern stream energy ejecting out of the southern Plains region. At the surface, will lay a strong cold frontal boundary which will flip the script when it comes to late Winter and early Spring. 6/12z guidance still has this front progged to move through the area some time late Wednesday into Thursday. As for severe weather, it will be highly dependent on timing with a focus remaining west of the Blue Ridge. This is the area where better instability and shear may be maximized given a lead shortwave that should touch off some convection over the mountains Wednesday afternoon as the northern stream trough tries to take a negative tilt. CSU learning machine probabilities remain around 15 to 30 percent for all severe hazards for the entirety of the area Wednesday afternoon into Thursday. NSSL probabilities are quite similar with a focus more on areas west of US-15 and out across the Allegheny Mountains. Meanwhile, SPC continues to highlight a 15 percent probability zone for portions of Garrett Co. MD during the Day 4 (Wednesday into Thursday). Storms will have plenty of fuel to work with as temperatures surge into the 70s and low 80s with dewpoint factors getting into the upper 50s and low 60s. Shear is a bit more uncertain with strong southwesterly flow at the surface ahead of the front and gusty northwesterly flow likely behind the front heading into the Thursday timeframe. Also, any early convection over the mountains combined with a later timing of the front (i.e Wednesday night into Thursday) could hamper convective output. Wind and heavy rainfall would be the primary threats for storms if they can develop Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night. The bigger story with the front will be the notable drop in temperatures heading into late week. Temperatures will take a 15 to 25 degree dive Thursday with highs ranging from the 30s over the mountains to low 60s east of I-95 and across southern MD/central VA Piedmont. Some anafrontal snow is even possible in the Alleghenies as the front departs Thursday afternoon into Thursday evening. Temperatures do level out Friday with highs in the upper 40s over northeast MD/the Alleghenies and mid to upper 50s elsewhere across the region. Similar values are expected this weekend despite another front passing through the region.

The 70 degree temperatures have captured me

Yuck at the 12z CMC at the end of its run... do not want

Learned from the best - Wilson

Seems could be interesting out west tomorrow afternoon into night? Afternoon discussion from LWX We`re expecting two rounds of storms tomorrow. The first round is expected to form within a surface trough just to the east of the Alleghenies during the mid-late afternoon hours. Model soundings show a fair amount of dry air in place aloft, and large scale forcing for ascent won`t be overly strong, so areal coverage with this first round of storms is only expected to be isolated to scattered in nature. If storms do become well established, the background environment will have enough instability (around 1000 J/kg of MLCAPE) and shear (around 40 knots in the 0-6 km layer) to promote updraft rotation. Isolated instances of damaging winds or hail may be possible with these storms as they move eastward from the Potomac Highlands toward the I-81 corridor and then the Blue Ridge/Catoctins during the mid-late afternoon hours. Conditions will likely remain dry to the east of US-15 during the daylight hours. A second round of pre-existing storms will approach from the Ohio Valley, reaching the Allegheny Front around sunset. This round of storms could be well organized into a squall line, and may potentially be quite intense. With the loss of daytime heating, the trend will likely be downward with the strength of this activity as it moves into our area, but damaging winds may still be possible, especially along and west of the Allegheny Front. Large scale forcing for ascent may enable these storms to hold together in a weakened form as they move eastward across the forecast area during the first half of the night. As of now, SPC has Garrett County in Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms, with locations further east to about US-15 in a Marginal Risk.

Interesting... I did not know you could do that. I will definitely look into this website more

Sounds like the Capitals are waving the white flag on this season... Dowd moved yesterday... Carlson this morning

Impossible. It precipitated in the desert?

Hmmm... sneaky severe this evening?