yoda

I missed this... any link to it?

Looks like growing season ends tomorrow night for the rest of the region

Sad, but expected I guess

Channel 5 (FOX) winter outlook released last night

It's lala land of the GFS... but 00z run sure was fun to look at

Welp, guess we're going to be freezing next week Zone Forecast Product National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 212 PM EDT Sat Oct 19 2024 DCZ001-192200- District of Columbia- Including the city of Washington 212 PM EDT Sat Oct 19 2024 .THIS AFTERNOON...Sunny. Highs in the lower 70s. Northeast winds around 5 mph. .TONIGHT...Clear. Lows in the upper 40s. South winds around 5 mph in the evening, becoming light and variable. .SUNDAY...Sunny. Highs in the mid 70s. Northwest winds around 5 mph. .SUNDAY NIGHT...Clear. Lows in the upper 40s. West winds around 5 mph. .MONDAY...Sunny. Highs in the upper 70s. Northwest winds around 5 mph. .MONDAY NIGHT...Clear. Lows in the lower 50s. .TUESDAY...Sunny. Highs around 80. .TUESDAY NIGHT...Clear. Lows in the lower 50s. .WEDNESDAY...Sunny. Highs in the upper 70s. .WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 50s. .THURSDAY...Sunny. Highs in the upper 60s. Wind chill values as low as 120 below. .THURSDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 40s. Wind chill values as low as 120 below. .FRIDAY...Sunny. Highs in the mid 60s.

Tropical Storm Oscar Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162024 1100 AM EDT Sat Oct 19 2024 Things have been quickly evolving with a small area of low pressure located just to the east of the Turks and Caicos Islands. Earlier this morning, there was a 0556 UTC AMSR2 passive microwave image that suggested the system's structure had become quite a bit better organized compared to prior images, with prominent curved bands on the 37 GHz low-level channel that suggest a well-defined circulation was developing. While the overnight C-band scatterometer imagery missed the small circulation just to the west, there was a KU-band scatterometer that suggested a closed circulation had formed. First light GOES-16 meso-sector imagery also suggests a tight circulation has formed, with bubbling hot towers within a small central dense overcast taking shape. All these data suggest a tropical cyclone has formed, and based on the earlier 12 UTC TAFB T2.5/35 kt Dvorak estimate, advisories are being started on Tropical Storm Oscar with a 35 kt initial intensity. Oscar is estimated to be moving due westward at 270/11 kt. This motion should continue for the remainder of the day as the system is initially steered by a narrow mid-level ridge positioned to the north. However, a digging east-to-west longwave trough is soon expected to erode the eastward side of this ridge, causing Oscar to slowdown and potentially stall near the northeastern coast of Cuba in 36-48 hours. Thereafter, that same trough is expected to continue amplifying or even retrograde westward, and if Oscar is vertically deep enough, this should induce steering that brings the tropical cyclone northeastward. The track forecast lies close to the simple TCVA consensus aid, which is quite close to the most recent ECMWF forecast. Its worth mentioning, there is quite a bit of southwest-to-northeast spread in the ensemble guidance, with weaker members slower and further west and stronger members being captured by the trough. Intensity-wise, Oscar only appears to have a 24 h window for strengthening as shear remains low enough. The first NHC intensity forecast shows the system peaking as a 45-kt storm as it nears the eastern coast of Cuba. Shear out of the northwest increases quite rapidly after that time, due to the aforementioned trough to its north, with the intensity likely leveling off around then. There could also be some land interaction with Cuba that could disrupt the circulation. However Oscar is a very small tropical cyclone, and could be prone to rapid changes in intensity, both up and down. After 72 h, the much larger trough is likely to absorb the small Oscar, with this occurring by the end of the forecast period by the middle of next week. Key Messages: 1. Oscar is expected to bring tropical storm conditions to portions of the southeastern Bahamas, Turks and Caicos Islands, and eastern Cuba during the next day or so. A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for those locations. 2. Locally heavy rainfall is possible across the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas later today and tonight. These rains are expected to spread to eastern Cuba on Sunday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/1500Z 21.3N 70.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 20/0000Z 21.4N 71.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 20/1200Z 21.2N 73.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 21/0000Z 20.9N 74.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 21/1200Z 21.0N 75.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 22/0000Z 21.6N 75.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 22/1200Z 22.5N 75.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 23/1200Z 25.1N 72.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 24/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Papin

BULLETIN Tropical Storm Oscar Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162024 1100 AM EDT Sat Oct 19 2024 ...SMALL TROPICAL STORM OSCAR FORMS JUST EAST OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS AND NORTHEASTERN PROVINCES OF CUBA... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.3N 70.2W ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM ESE OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS ABOUT 495 MI...795 KM E OF CAMAGUEY CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of the Bahamas has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the Turks and Caicos Islands and the Southeastern Bahamas. The government of Cuba has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the provinces of Guantanamo, Holguin, and Las Tunas and a Tropical Storm Watch for Camaguey. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Turks and Caicos Islands * Southeastern Bahamas * Cuban Provinces of Guantanamo, Holguin, and Las Tunas A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Cuba Provence of Camaguey For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Oscar was located near latitude 21.3 North, longitude 70.2 West. Oscar is moving toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h) and this motion with a gradual slowdown and turn to the west-southwest is forecast over the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some intensification is possible over the next day or so, followed by little change in strength. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).

This is true... or we get a random week to 10 days like last winter and then that's it. I really hope we get some decent stuff this winter, but I'm prepared for a disappointment.

Saw this up in the SNE thread. Hope it's okay to post in here

I'm sorry... come again? SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... While the parent upper low pulls away from the lower Great Lakes toward New England, a secondary shortwave is primed to swing across the Ohio Valley into the southern Mid-Atlantic. Strong ascent with this system should allow for further upslope precipitation along with scattered showers downstream. With the most robust wind fields likely near the cloud tops, such winds may struggle to mechanically mix down to the surface. Thus, expect such showers to be of lower impact to areas east of the Allegheny Front. Recent high-resolution model suites show the best coverage south of I-66 during the late afternoon to evening hours. Meanwhile, upslope showers continue along the Alleghenies, which will mix in with snow at times during the evening to overnight hours. Light snowfall accumulations are possible depending on how much can stick to the ground.

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 329 PM EDT Mon Oct 14 2024 VAZ025>027-029-150330- /O.CON.KLWX.FZ.A.0003.241016T0600Z-241016T1300Z/ Augusta-Rockingham-Shenandoah-Page- Including the cities of Luray, Staunton, Mount Jackson, New Market, Stanley, Shenandoah, Waynesboro, Harrisonburg, Strasburg, Stuarts Draft, and Woodstock 329 PM EDT Mon Oct 14 2024 ...FREEZE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING... * WHAT...Sub-freezing temperatures as low as 31 possible. * WHERE...Page, Shenandoah, Augusta, and Rockingham Counties. * WHEN...From late Tuesday night through Wednesday morning. * IMPACTS...Frost and freeze conditions could kill crops, other sensitive vegetation and possibly damage unprotected outdoor plumbing. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold.

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 329 PM EDT Mon Oct 14 2024 MDZ003>006-505-507-WVZ051-052-150330- /O.EXA.KLWX.FR.Y.0009.241015T0600Z-241015T1200Z/ Washington-Frederick MD-Carroll-Northern Baltimore-Northwest Howard-Northwest Harford-Morgan-Berkeley- Including the cities of Hagerstown, Westminster, Frederick, Eldersburg, Reisterstown, Cockeysville, Lisbon, Paw Paw, Martinsburg, Jarrettsville, and Ballenger Creek 329 PM EDT Mon Oct 14 2024 ...FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT TUESDAY... * WHAT...Temperatures as low as 36 will result in frost formation. * WHERE...In Maryland, Northwest Howard, Carroll, Frederick MD, Washington, Northern Baltimore, and Northwest Harford Counties. In West Virginia, Berkeley and Morgan Counties. * WHEN...From 2 AM to 8 AM EDT Tuesday. * IMPACTS...Frost could harm sensitive outdoor vegetation. Sensitive outdoor plants may be killed if left uncovered.

Who is this Commanders team?

2am is 50/80 Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Sat Oct 5 2024 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Kirk, located over the central subtropical Atlantic Ocean, and on Tropical Storm Leslie, located over the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean. 1. Gulf of Mexico (AL92): Recent satellite-derived wind data indicate that an area of low pressure located over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico is broad and ill defined, but it is producing winds just below gale force. Development of this system is expected, and a tropical or subtropical depression or storm is likely to form this weekend or early next week while moving eastward or northeastward across the Gulf of Mexico. Interests on the Yucatan peninsula of Mexico, the Florida Peninsula, the Florida Keys, and the northwestern Bahamas should monitor the progress of this system. Regardless of tropical or subtropical development, locally heavy rains could occur over portions of Mexico during the next day or two, and over much of Florida late this weekend through the middle of next week. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

Oh look, it's raining again as I am leaving work

I think I missed meeting @H2O I believe at the last Penguins/Capitals game... but i just got tickets for the January 18th game... anybody else going to go? Of course the Penguins will win

Commanders are 3-1 and are in 1st place in the NFC East

Feels close to 90 out in the direct sunlight... yuck

No more hourly updates Tropical Storm Helene Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024 500 AM EDT Fri Sep 27 2024 The eye of Helene made landfall near Perry, Florida, just after the last advisory was issued. Since then, the center has crossed the Florida Big Bend region and is currently located over east central Georgia. Surface observations have shown steady weakening since landfall, and the maximum winds have decreased to a possibly generous 60 kt. During the last couple of hours, the radar signature of the cyclone has degraded, and based on this the hourly Tropical Cyclone Updates will be discontinued. The initial motion is now northward or 360/26. Helen should turn northwestward later today as it starts to interact with a mid- to upper-level baroclinic low to its northwest. After that, the cyclone should considerably slow its forward motion and make a cyclonic loop as it gets absorbed into the low. The new forecast track follows the general trend of the large-scale dynamical models. Helene should continue to weaken, and simulated satellite imagery suggests it should lose its convection later today, the new intensity forecast calls for the cyclone to weaken and become post-tropical in about 12 h, followed by transition to an extratropical cyclone as it merges with the baroclinic low. The remnant extratropical low is expected to dissipate by 72 h. Although the system will weaken as it moves over land, the fast forward speed of Helene during the next 12 hours or so will result in a far inland penetration of strong winds over parts of the southeastern United States, particularly over northern Georgia, including strong gusts over the higher terrain of the southern Appalachians. Accordingly, a higher-than-normal gust factor is indicated in the official forecast while Helene is inland. KEY MESSAGES: 1. The storm surge along portions of the Florida Big Bend coast and other portions of the west coast of Florida should subside today. 2. Damaging wind gusts will continue to penetrate well inland over portions of Georgia and the Carolinas today, particularly over the higher terrain of the southern Appalachians. Residents in these areas should be prepared for the possibility of long-duration power outages. If you use a generator after the storm, be sure it is placed outside at least 20 feet away from doors, windows, and garages to avoid deadly carbon monoxide poisoning. 3. Catastrophic and life-threatening flash and urban flooding, including numerous significant landslides, is expected across portions of the southern Appalachians through Friday. Considerable to locally catastrophic flash and urban flooding is likely for northwestern and northern Florida and the Southeast through Friday. Widespread significant river flooding is likely, some of which will be major to record breaking. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/0900Z 32.8N 83.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND 12H 27/1800Z 36.4N 84.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 24H 28/0600Z 36.9N 87.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 28/1800Z 36.7N 87.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 29/0600Z 36.7N 87.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 29/1800Z 36.9N 86.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 30/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven

Tropical Storm Helene Advisory Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024 500 AM EDT Fri Sep 27 2024 ...HELENE WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM AS IT MOVES FARTHER INLAND OVER GEORGIA... ...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, WINDS, AND HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE... SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...32.8N 83.0W ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM E OF MACON GEORGIA ABOUT 100 MI...165 KM SE OF ATLANTA GEORGIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 30 MPH...48 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...968 MB...28.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: All Hurricane and Tropical Storm warnings have been discontinued along the Florida east coast south of the Flagler/Volusia county line, and along the Florida west coast south of the mouth of the Suwannee River. The Hurricane Warning for the Florida coast from the mouth of the Suwannee Rover to Mexico Beach has been changed to a Tropical Storm Warning. The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued for the Florida Gulf coast west of Indian Pass. The Storm Surge Warning for the Florida coast has been discontinued west of Indian Pass and south of Bonita Beach. The Hurricane Watch for the Florida West coast has been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Indian Pass to Bonita Beach * Tampa Bay A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The mouth of the Suwannee River to Indian Pass * The Flagler/Volusia county line northward to Little River Inlet

Confirmed... 75mph at 5am

FXUS61 KLWX 270759 AFDLWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 359 AM EDT Fri Sep 27 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Hurricane Helene has made landfall along the northeastern Gulf Coast overnight, and is expected to quickly move into the southern Appalachians and Tennessee River Valley today into the weekend. Widespread rain is possible today, especially across parts of Central Virginia. Chances for rain will linger into early next week as an upper low remains overhead. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Hurricane Helene made landfall in the Big Bend of Florida this evening. This storm has a forward propagation speed of nearly 25 kts.. which is near the upper percentile for tropical cyclones. The upstream trough across the Lower Mississippi Valley is pulling the cyclone quickly northward. The center is already well into Georgia as of 03 AM with the outer rainbands making it into Virginia thanks to jet support/WAA. Through the day today, the remnants of Helene will continue to move northward, but get pulled west slightly towards the trough. Other than another day of cloudcover and highs in the 70s, Helene will bring several hazards to the area: - Heavy rain threat... Given the tropical airmass with PW values well above climo norms for late September (~1.5-2.2"), repeated rounds of moderate to heavy rain are expected today. The greatest coverage will be across a line from roughly Highland County, VA to Albemarle County, VA this morning. By this afternoon and into this evening, a broken line of showers/thunderstorms or several lines may develop, but coverage should be more scattered in nature. Given the SE`ly fetch off the Atlantic, abundant moisture is upsloping into the Blue Ridge and Alleghenies. The higher terrain of these locations have the greatest potential for Flash Flooding (especially where recent rains have exceeded 2-4"). Another 2-4" look possible across the higher terrain of the watch area through this evening. Have maintained the Flood Watch for these locales. Further north and east, less forcing exists and lesser amounts of rain are expected. - Strong Winds...The remnant wind field with Helene is extensive. As of 3 AM mesonets across the higher terrain of the Alleghenies and Blue Ridge are already gusting to 20-30 mph. As the remnants move north through the morning and afternoon, the winds will increase across the Blue Ridge and Alleghenies. A core of 40-60 kts of wind at H85 is forecast across central VA that pivots into the Ohio Valley. There is a good amount of disagreement between models on how far northeast these winds make it into the local forecast area, especially at lower elevations. Have expanded the Wind Advisory in coordination with PBZ to our common border. Bufkit profiles suggest 40-45 kts should mix down around 2500 ft, with 45-50 kts closer to 3500/4000 ft. There is a better signal for downsloping west of the Alleghenies, but northwestern Garrett County could downslope as well directly west of Keysers Ridge towards Friendsville. The saturated ground will likely allow for trees to fall as well. Across the lower elevations and metros, gusts to 20-30 kts are possible. - Severe Potential (including tornadoes)... By this afternoon, a broken line or broken lines of showers/thunderstorms are possible. The best overlap in instability/shear/SRH is across central VA. SPC has a Marginal Risk (Level 1 out of 5) that is tornado driven (2%). The further north into the forecast area, there is less instability. However, in tropical environments it does not take much instability. The one limiting factor is the forcing is definitely better closer to the center which is forecast to track well to the west. The region will reside in a tropical airmass tonight with lows only falling into the upper 60s in the metros with upper 50s west of the Blue Ridge. Dew points will be near the air temp, so fog formation appears rather likely. Rain chances look to be low overnight with PWs actually decreasing heading into Saturday.

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 248 PM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024 VAZ504-507-508-WVZ506-270300- /O.EXA.KLWX.WI.Y.0017.240927T1600Z-240927T2300Z/ Eastern Highland-Northern Virginia Blue Ridge-Central Virginia Blue Ridge-Eastern Pendleton- Including the cities of Oak Flat, Franklin, Ruddle, Monterey, Sugar Grove, Wintergreen, Brandywine, and Big Meadows 248 PM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024 ...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 7 PM EDT FRIDAY... * WHAT...East to southeast winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts around 50 mph expected for elevations above 3,000 feet. * WHERE...In Virginia, Central Virginia Blue Ridge and Northern Virginia Blue Ridge, and Eastern Highland County. In West Virginia, Eastern Pendleton County. * WHEN...From noon to 7 PM EDT Friday. * IMPACTS...Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. The combination of a saturated ground and strong winds may cause downed trees and powerlines.