Jump to content

yoda

Members
  • Posts

    60,268
  • Joined

Everything posted by yoda

  1. 12z EURO would like to know about these tropical systems you are talking about... finally develops a weak system Days 9 and 10... but it's nothing like the 12z GFS -- not even close
  2. Is turtlehurricane okay? Haven't seen him since Dorian roared by
  3. 93/71/100 at DCA as of 2pm... yuck
  4. Nope... it will be close, but stay just offshore
  5. STW it is... good luck -- https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0634.html URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 634 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 PM EDT Wed Sep 4 2019 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Connecticut Massachusetts Southern Maine New Hampshire Northern New Jersey Southern and Eastern New York Eastern Pennsylvania Rhode Island Southern Vermont Coastal Waters * Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 1250 PM until 900 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Multiple corridors of intensifying thunderstorm development are expected this afternoon along and ahead of a cold front. Adequate instability along with very strong deep-layer winds will yield the potential for storms capable of damaging winds and some hail. A tornado or two cannot be ruled out mainly across southeast New York into southern New England. The severe risk will diminish from west to east across the region by early/mid-evening.
  6. yoda

    Dorian

    BULLETIN Hurricane Dorian Advisory Number 42 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 500 PM EDT Tue Sep 03 2019 ...WINDS INCREASING ALONG PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA EAST COAST... ...NEW WARNINGS AND WATCHES ISSUED... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.7N 78.7W ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM E OF VERO BEACH FLORIDA ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM ESE OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...959 MB...28.32 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Storm Surge Warning has been extended northward to Surf City, North Carolina. The Storm Surge Watch has been extended northward to Duck, North Carolina, including the Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds and the Neuse and Pamlico Rivers. A Hurricane Warning has been issued from Savannah River to Edisto Beach, South Carolina, and from South Santee River, South Carolina, to Surf City, North Carolina. The Hurricane Watch has been extended north of Duck, North Carolina to the North Carolina/Virginia border. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued from the North Carolina/Virginia border northward to Chincoteague, Virginia, and for the Chesapeake Bay from Smith Point southward. The Hurricane Warning has been changed to a Tropical Storm Warning from Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet, Florida. The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued south of Jupiter Inlet. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Jupiter Inlet FL to Surf City NC A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * North of Surf City NC to Duck NC * Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds * Neuse and Pamlico Rivers A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Sebastian Inlet FL to Ponte Vedra Beach FL * North of Savannah River to Surf City NC A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * North of Ponte Vedra Beach FL to Savannah River * North of Surf City NC to the North Carolina/Virginia border * Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Grand Bahama and the Abacos Islands in the northwestern Bahamas * North of Ponte Vedra Beach FL to Savannah River * Jupiter Inlet FL to Sebastian Inlet FL A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * The North Carolina/Virginia border to Chincoteague VA * Chesapeake Bay from Smith Point southward
  7. Won't be around for long, but TS Fernand has formed in the W GOM... will move west and make landfall in NE MX and dissipate in about 72 hours BULLETIN Tropical Storm Fernand Intermediate Advisory Number 2A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072019 100 PM CDT Tue Sep 03 2019 ...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM FERNAND... SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.5N 95.3W ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM E OF LA PESCA MEXICO ABOUT 185 MI...295 KM ENE OF TAMPICO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the northeast coast of Mexico from La Pesca to Barra del Tordo and from Barra El Mezquital to the Mouth of the Rio Grande River. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Barra del Tordo to the Mouth of the Rio Grande River A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. Interests elsewhere along the northeastern coast of Mexico and the lower Texas coast should monitor the progress of this system. Additional watches or warnings could be required later today for portions of these areas. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fernand was located near latitude 23.5 North, longitude 95.3 West. Fernand is moving toward the west near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue today. A motion toward the west-northwest is forecast tonight and Wednesday. This motion could bring the center of Fernand near or over the coast of northeastern Mexico late Wednesday. Recent satellite wind data indicate that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional slow strengthening is forecast before the system moves inland. A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate Fernand this afternoon to provide more information on the intensity. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (170 km) mainly to the west of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast within the warning area late tonight or early Wednesday, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Squalls with gusts to tropical-storm force are likely north of the warning area along portions of the northeastern coast of Mexico and the lower Texas coast. RAINFALL: Fernand is expected to produce the following rainfall totals through Friday: Northeast Mexico: 6 to 12 inches, isolated 15 inches, highest in the Sierra Madre Oriental of Tamaulipas and Nuevo Leon. This rainfall may cause life-threatening mudslides and flash floods. South Texas and the Lower Texas Coast: 2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
  8. To be honest, probably won't be for a couple days
  9. At the risk of being called out, I hope yours is next
  10. You'll be waiting a really long time for that
  11. Lol TVS sig near Haymarket/Bull Run on radarscope
  12. Nice thunderstorm here... nice rainfall
  13. James going to get raked this run of the 00z GFS lol
  14. But who should he call first? NHC or WFO MIA?
  15. 18z GFS gives SE Mass into Nantucket some fun at 126-132
×
×
  • Create New...