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BULLETIN Hurricane Jerry Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019 500 PM AST Thu Sep 19 2019 ...JERRY STILL STRENGTHENING... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.5N 55.8W ABOUT 395 MI...640 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Barbuda * Anguilla * St. Maarten * St. Martin * St. Barthelemy * Saba and St. Eustatius A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 24-36 hours. Interests elsewhere in the northern Leeward Islands should monitor the progress of Jerry. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Jerry was located near latitude 17.5 North, longitude 55.8 West. Jerry is moving toward the west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h). A west-northwest to northwest motion at a decreasing forward speed is expected over the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of Jerry will move north of the northern Leeward Islands Friday, pass well north of Puerto Rico on Saturday and be well east-northeast of the southeastern Bahamas on Sunday. Satellite and Air Force Hurricane Hunter data indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Jerry could strengthen during the next day or so before weakening is anticipated by this weekend. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 979 mb (28.91 inches).

Hurricane Jerry Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019 1100 AM AST Thu Sep 19 2019 Satellite images indicate that the center of Jerry is on the northwestern side of the central dense overcast near a very deep convective burst. An Air Force recon plane just flew through the center and found a central pressure of 988 mb and SFMR values near 65 kt. These data support making Jerry the 4th hurricane of the 2019 Atlantic hurricane season with initial wind speed of 65 kt. Jerry has the potential to further strengthen today, but an increase in northwesterly shear related to an upper-level ridge is anticipated overnight. This change in shear will likely arrest the development of Jerry and start a slow weakening trend sometime tomorrow. In 3 or 4 days, Jerry could enter a more conducive environment for strengthening, but there is a pretty large spread in the shear forecast near the cyclone at this time, related to the positioning of Jerry relative to the ridge. Since the environmental uncertainty at long range is so high, little change has been made to the previous forecast. The initial motion is estimated to be west-northwestward, or 295/14 kt. The track forecast has remained rather consistent during the past several cycles, taking Jerry just north of the Leeward Islands during the first couple of days due to seemingly reliable steering flow from the subtropical ridge to the north. The track is a little trickier beyond that time due to some dependence on the strength of Jerry, with a stronger system likely moving a bit longer toward the west-northwest, similar to the latest ECMWF/HWRF forecast. Regardless, the cyclone should eventually turn northward and northeastward by day 5 due to a substantial break in the subtropical ridge. The track forecast puts slightly greater weight on those stronger solutions, and the official track forecast is a little left of the various consensus aids and not too far from the last NHC prediction. Key Messages: 1. Although the core of Jerry is expected to pass north of northern Leeward Islands, tropical-storm-force winds and locally heavy rainfall are possible, and tropical storm watches are in effect. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/1500Z 16.8N 54.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 20/0000Z 17.5N 56.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 20/1200Z 18.5N 59.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 21/0000Z 19.5N 62.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 21/1200Z 20.7N 64.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 22/1200Z 23.5N 68.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 23/1200Z 26.5N 70.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 24/1200Z 30.5N 67.0W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake

Tropical Storm Jerry Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019 500 PM AST Wed Sep 18 2019 Jerry continues to strengthen this afternoon, as indicated by 1-min GOES-16 satellite imagery, with a large burst of convection close to the center. In addition, microwave data show that the central structure has improved, displaying a tightly wrapped band near the center. The initial wind speed is set to 50 kt, on the conservative side of the intensity estimates. The storm should become a hurricane on Thursday while it is moving over very warm waters with light shear. Dropsondes from the NOAA G-IV aircraft this afternoon show that Jerry is surrounded by some very dry air in the lower to mid-levels, and this is likely the main limiting factor on the cyclone's strengthening rate in the near term. By 48 hours, almost all of the models show an increase in northwesterly shear due to flow from an upper-level ridge, which seems likely to cause some weakening. At long range, Jerry is likely to interact with a mid-latitude trough, which is notoriously difficult to forecast. Only small changes were made to the previous wind speed prediction, and this advisory is close to a blend of the various consensus aids. The initial motion continues to be west-northwestward, or 290/13 kt. There's no substantial change to the track forecast on this package, with a subtropical ridge providing a well-defined steering current. This ridge should move Jerry along at a faster forward speed in about the same direction for the next couple of days, taking the center close to but north of the northern Leeward Islands. Afterward, a northwest to northward turn, influenced by a weakness in the aforementioned ridge left behind by Humberto and a new mid-latitude shortwave, is anticipated. The new forecast is very close to the previous one and a blend of the latest ECMWF ensemble mean and the corrected-consensus HCCA. Key Messages: 1. Jerry is expected to become a hurricane before it moves close to the northern Leeward Islands Friday. Although the core of Jerry is currently expected to pass north of the islands, tropical-storm- force winds and locally heavy rainfall are possible, and tropical storm watches have been issued for a portion of this area. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/2100Z 15.0N 50.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 19/0600Z 15.7N 52.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 19/1800Z 16.7N 55.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 20/0600Z 17.8N 58.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 20/1800Z 19.1N 61.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 21/1800Z 21.5N 66.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 22/1800Z 25.2N 70.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 23/1800Z 28.5N 69.5W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake

BULLETIN Tropical Storm Jerry Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019 500 PM AST Wed Sep 18 2019 ...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ISSUED FOR PARTS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.0N 50.5W ABOUT 765 MI...1230 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of St. Maarten has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for St. Maarten. Meteo-France has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for St. Martin and St. Barthelemy. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * St. Maarten * St. Martin * St. Barthelemy A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in the northern Leeward Islands should monitor the progress of Jerry. Further watches could be issued this evening or overnight. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jerry was located near latitude 15.0 North, longitude 50.5 West. Jerry is moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). A west- northwest motion at a slightly faster forward speed is expected over the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of Jerry will be near or north of the northern Leeward Islands Friday and pass north of Puerto Rico on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Jerry is forecast to become a hurricane on Thursday, with little change in strength anticipated on Friday or Saturday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).

Tropical Storm Jerry Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019 1100 AM AST Wed Sep 18 2019 Satellite images indicate that Jerry continues to become better organized, with a large curved band wrapping around the center. While microwave data does not show an inner core yet, the overall satellite presentation has improved during the past several hours. The initial wind speed is set to 45 kt, which closely matches almost all of the available Dvorak estimates and a just-arrived ASCAT-C scatterometer pass. Further intensification of Jerry is expected during the next day or two as the cyclone moves over very warm waters within light shear. While this type of environment could support even more strengthening than forecast, there is some substantial dry air around the cyclone, which is forecast to limit the intensification rates for now. This forecast leans heavier on the regional hurricane models HWRF, HMON and COAMPS-TC, which all show a weaker cyclone than the statistical/dynamical LGEM and SHIPS models. Most of the guidance shows increasing shear in a couple of days, and the shear could become somewhat strong by next week. While little change in strength is indicated beyond Friday, this usually doesn't happen in reality, and further changes will be necessary as the environmental factors become more clear. The initial motion continues to be west-northwestward, or 290/12 kt. The subtropical ridge to the north should steer Jerry at a faster forward speed for the next couple of days. Afterward, a northwest to north-northwestward turn, influenced by a weakness in the aforementioned ridge left behind by Humberto, is expected. The NHC track forecast is basically an update from the previous advisory and lies on the left side of the guidance suite, nearest the ECMWF model and the corrected-consensus forecasts. Key Messages: 1. Jerry is expected to strengthen and be a hurricane when it moves near the northern Leeward Islands Friday, although it is too soon to determine the direct impacts to the islands. Interests there should ensure they have their hurricane plan in place and monitor the progress of this system. Watches could be issued for a portion of this area this afternoon or evening. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/1500Z 14.6N 49.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 19/0000Z 15.3N 51.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 19/1200Z 16.3N 53.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 20/0000Z 17.3N 56.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 20/1200Z 18.4N 59.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 21/1200Z 20.5N 65.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 22/1200Z 23.3N 69.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 23/1200Z 26.5N 70.5W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake

BULLETIN Tropical Storm Jerry Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019 1100 AM AST Wed Sep 18 2019 ...JERRY STRENGTHENING OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.6N 49.2W ABOUT 855 MI...1375 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the northern Leeward Islands should monitor the progress of this system. Watches could be issued this afternoon or evening. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jerry was located near latitude 14.6 North, longitude 49.2 West. Jerry is moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A west- northwest motion at a slightly faster forward speed is expected over the next few days. On the forecast track, the system will be near the northern Leeward Islands Friday and pass north of Puerto Rico on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Jerry is forecast to become a hurricane by late Thursday, with little change in strength anticipated on Friday and Saturday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Blake

Surprise still a TD at 11 lol... disco explains why

Freeze Warnings in N ME tonight... is that early? Lows in the upper 20s expected in the colder areas looks like as well

And landfall too? Tropical Storm Imelda Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112019 1245 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2019 ...DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM IMELDA... Surface observations indicate that the depression has strengthened as it nears the coast and has become Tropical Storm Imelda, with maximum sustained winds near 40 mph (65 km/h). A National Ocean Service observing site at Freeport, Texas, recently reported a sustained wind of 40 mph (65 km/h) and a wind gust of 47 mph (76 km/h). SUMMARY OF 1245 PM CDT...1745 UTC...INFORMATION --------------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.9N 95.3W ABOUT 0 MI...0 KM S OF FREEPORT TEXAS ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM SW OF GALVESTON TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES $$ Forecaster Brennan/Brown

BULLETIN Tropical Depression Eleven Special Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112019 1200 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2019 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS NEAR THE TEXAS COAST... ...EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING... SUMMARY OF 1200 PM CDT...1700 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.7N 95.4W ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM SSW OF FREEPORT TEXAS ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM SW OF GALVESTON TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the coast of Texas from Sargent to Port Bolivar. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Sargent to Port Bolivar A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next few hours. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1200 PM CDT (1700 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eleven was located near latitude 28.7 North, longitude 95.4 West. The depression is moving toward the north near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through early Wednesday. A north-northwestward motion is expected Wednesday night and Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of the depression will move inland over the Upper Texas coast later today, and move farther inland tonight and Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible before the center moves onshore. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce total rainfall accumulation of 5 to 10 inches with isolated maximum of 15 inches across the upper coastal region of Texas into far southwest Louisiana through Thursday. This rainfall may produce life- threatening flash floods. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area this afternoon and evening. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Brown

NHC only has a yellow tag on it... 30% before "landfall" late tonight... Maybe it will be reviewed after the season but I think its too late This was the NHC 8am disco on it:

I don't think it will have enough time to develop into a TD before it moves inland later tonight

Tropical Depression Ten Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019 1100 AM AST Tue Sep 17 2019 Deep convection associated with the area of low pressure over the central Atlantic has become more persistent and better organized this morning. Data T-numbers from both SAB and TAFB are 2.0 on the Dvorak scale, therefore advisories are being initiated on a tropical depression. The initial intensity is set at 30 kt, in line with the satellite estimates. The depression is forecast to move over gradually increasing sea surface temperatures within a favorable upper-level environment. The only negative factor for intensification appears to be some nearby dry air, but with low shear conditions expected, so steady strengthening is forecast during the next several days. The NHC forecast calls for the depression to become a tropical storm later today, and attain hurricane status within 72 hours. The NHC intensity forecast is in good agreement with the SHIPS and LGEM statistical models. Since the depression is still in the development phase, the initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 295/10 kt. A strong deep-layer ridge to the north of the cyclone should steer the depression generally west-northwestward at a faster forward speed during the next few days. The track guidance is in relatively good agreement through 72 hours, and brings the cyclone near the northern Leeward Islands in about 3 days. By late in the period, the cyclone is expected to reach the western periphery of the ridge, and there is increasing spread among the guidance. The global model ensemble means are along the right side of the envelope while the HWRF and UKMET are along the left side. The NHC track lies close the consensus aids, which is also in good agreement with the latest ECMWF. Interests in the northern Leeward Islands should monitor the progress of this system. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/1500Z 12.9N 44.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 18/0000Z 13.8N 46.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 18/1200Z 14.7N 47.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 19/0000Z 15.5N 50.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 19/1200Z 16.3N 52.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 20/1200Z 18.2N 59.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 21/1200Z 20.2N 64.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 22/1200Z 22.5N 69.0W 80 KT 90 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown

BULLETIN Tropical Depression Ten Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019 1100 AM AST Tue Sep 17 2019 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.9N 44.9W ABOUT 1165 MI...1870 KM ESE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the Northern Leeward Islands should monitor the progress of this system. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Ten was located near latitude 12.9 North, longitude 44.9 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A west-northwestward motion at a somewhat faster forward speed is expected over the next few days. On the forecast track, the system will approach the northern Leeward Islands Thursday night or Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm later today. The system is forecast become a hurricane by the time it approaches the northern Leeward Island. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Brown

Advisories will begin at 11am per NHC

I dont think that LWX will change anything though

I dunno... radarscope has the line reformed and heading towards us

May get a quick shower... its getting a little dark here

Pretty nice line approaching the i95 corridor

Oooooh a very dangerous storm designation! Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 343 PM EDT Wed Sep 11 2019 VAC043-061-107-112015- /O.CON.KLWX.SV.W.0654.000000T0000Z-190911T2015Z/ Loudoun VA-Clarke VA-Fauquier VA- 343 PM EDT Wed Sep 11 2019 ...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 415 PM EDT FOR SOUTHWESTERN LOUDOUN...SOUTHEASTERN CLARKE AND NORTH CENTRAL FAUQUIER COUNTIES... At 342 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Delaplane, or 17 miles east of Front Royal, moving east at 35 mph. This is a very dangerous storm. HAZARD...80 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Expect considerable damage to trees and power lines. Your life is at significant risk if outdoors. In addition to some trees falling into homes, wind damage is possible to roofs, sheds, open garages, and mobile homes. Locations impacted include... Sky Meadows State Park, Paris, and Upperville. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. && LAT...LON 3889 7797 3907 7796 3906 7789 3902 7766 3880 7781 3884 7793 TIME...MOT...LOC 1942Z 271DEG 32KT 3899 7787 HAIL...1.00IN WIND...80MPH

Maybe I95 corridor in next couple of hours? Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 337 PM EDT Wed Sep 11 2019 VAC043-061-107-187-112015- /O.CON.KLWX.SV.W.0654.000000T0000Z-190911T2015Z/ Loudoun VA-Clarke VA-Warren VA-Fauquier VA- 337 PM EDT Wed Sep 11 2019 ...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 415 PM EDT FOR SOUTHWESTERN LOUDOUN...SOUTHEASTERN CLARKE...NORTHEASTERN WARREN AND NORTHWESTERN FAUQUIER COUNTIES... At 337 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Delaplane, or 12 miles east of Front Royal, moving east at 20 mph. HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by downed trees. Localized power outages are possible. Unsecured light objects may become projectiles. Locations impacted include... Middleburg, The Plains, Delaplane, Linden, Marshall, Saint Louis, Howellsville, Rectortown, Blue Mountain, Halfway, Upperville, Markham, Bethel, Ashville, Paris and Ada. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. && LAT...LON 3890 7808 3901 7808 3906 7801 3907 7797 3906 7789 3902 7766 3880 7781 3886 7800 TIME...MOT...LOC 1937Z 286DEG 16KT 3898 7797 HAIL...1.00IN WIND...70MPH

EURO 1006mb SLP vs GFS 954mb Plus EURO comes from a devloping low off of the just NW of PR at 192... GFS has the TC from before the Windward Islands