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yoda

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Everything posted by yoda

  1. Especially when its tossing out 2-3" of rain pretty much area wide through 144
  2. I guess @mattie g can change the tag since it reached 4 pages It would be nice to see some more rain... have each system bring 0.5" to 1.0" each time they come through the area and our drought will be lessened
  3. Public Information Statement National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 619 PM CDT Mon Oct 21 2019 ...NWS Damage Survey For 10/20/2019 North Texas Severe Weather Event... Severe thunderstorms erupted on the evening of 10/20/2019 across North Texas ahead of a powerful storm system. A couple of supercells produced tornadoes across parts of the Dallas/Fort Worth Metroplex. In summary, the highest rated tornado...an EF-3...struck portions of Dallas County. The other two tornadoes have been rated EF-1 and EF-0. A total of 3 tornadoes and one damaging downburst have been surveyed. Additional surveys are possible over the next several days. .Las Colinas to Richardson Tornado... Rating: EF-3 Estimated Peak Wind: 140 mph Path Length /statute/: 15.75 miles Path Width /maximum/: 1300 yards Fatalities: 0 Injuries: UNKNOWN Start Date: 10/20/2019 Start Time: 20:58 CDT Start Location: 1.8 E of Las Colinas /Dallas County/ Start Lat/Lon: 32.87/-96.91 End Date: 10/20/2019 End Time: 21:30 CDT End Location: 3 E of Richardson /Dallas County/ End Lat/Lon: 32.96/-96.68 The tornado formed in northwest Dallas, near State Highway 348 and Luna Road, where large tree damage and minor roof damage was initially observed. This tornado tracked toward the east-northeast, crossing I-35E and impacted numerous commercial structures between this freeway and Harry Hines Blvd. Extensive damage to many businesses and residences, consistent with EF-1 and EF-2 intensity wind speeds, occurred near the intersection of Harry Hines Blvd and Walnut Hill Lane. As the tornado moved eastward, roughly coincident with Walnut Hill Lane, several gas stations, large commercial buildings, and churches, and at least one multi- story apartment complex sustained significant roof and exterior wall damage. This path of strong EF-1 and EF-2 damage continued east-northeast along Walnut Hill Lane through the Marsh Lane and Midway Road corridors. East of Marsh Lane, the tornado impacted more single-family residences, though commercial structures were still adversely affected at times. Severe damage to large hardwood trees, consistent with EF-1 intensity winds, was observed throughout the damage path from Marsh Lane to US HWY 75. Intermittent EF-1 and EF-2 damage also occurred to a number of residences in this area. Many of these damaged homes were large and/or well-established structures that sustained either partial or total roof loss, accompanied by minor exterior wall damage. This damage was consistent with 110-125 mph tornado winds. Within one concentrated region of EF-2 damage along Northaven Road west of US HWY 75, a particular single-family home was surveyed with total roof loss, and multiple collapsed exterior walls. The survey team determined that this damage was consistent with low-end EF-3 intensity winds of approximately 140 mph. This was the only structure that was assigned an EF-3 rating for this tornado. The tornado continued eastward, toward US HWY 75 and produced significant roof damage to several businesses near US HWY 75 including office low-rise buildings, a car dealership, and a Home Depot. Damage here was assigned an EF-2 intensity. The tornado crossed over the southern part of the Texas Instruments campus and then began to turn more northeastward and parallel Greenville Avenue. Tree and roof damage consistent with EF-1 occurred as it crossed I-635. Several glass windows were blown out at a mid-rise office building. The tornado crossed an apartment complex near Walnut Street and Greenville Avenue where dozens of units had sections of missing roof consistent with EF-1 damage of 95 to 110 mph. The tornado moved across the Cutters Point apartment complex where numerous units experienced significant roof loss consistent with 115 mph or EF-2 damage. Another low-rise office building saw numerous windows blown out on all sides. The tornado continued into the Richland Park, Lakes of Buckingham, Richland Meadows, and College Park residential subdivisions where widespread tree and roof damage consistent with 80 to 95 mph winds occurred. A few homes in this area saw complete or total roof loss where winds were estimated at 110 mph or EF-1. The tornado began to weaken and took a sharp turn to the north near Richardson Square where it tracked to the Huffhines Park areas. Mostly tree damage occurred here with winds estimated near 70 mph or EF-0. The track then turned to the west and became very narrow near Duck Creek with the tornado dissipating as it crossed Jupiter Rd. The tornado had a continuous track for 32 minutes, tracked for just over 15 miles, produced maximum winds of 140 mph, with a maximum width of three-quarters of a mile.
  4. What's interesting is in the PNS... it was given an EF3 rating because of the damage to one house
  5. 12z EURO looks like it... ugh... 850 hPa temperature anomaly on Days 9 and 10 (October 30th and 31st) are +8 to +12, respectively
  6. Almost freezes at DCA... IAD is 27... RIC reach 32... BWI 33 Cold (highs in the 40s) for a few days... then back to 65-70 degrees in the first week of November
  7. 00z CMC was a move SE by about 75 miles for Sunday... around 0.5" QPF now for just south of EZF into S MD... DCA and BWI near 0.15" total 00z GFS also a SE move compared to 18z... 0.5" line barely into S MD... barely any precip (0.15") back into i95 corridor and the metros
  8. Quite a crushing... 2"+ for many 00z 3km NAM is pretty good too... over an inch for many Precip comes in hot and heavy around dawn Sunday
  9. 12z UKIE now looks like the 12z GFS ... but was a sig bump NW as well comparing the 12z UKIE precip map to the 00z one
  10. 12z CMC kind of strikes a balance between the 12z twin NAMs and the 12z GFS... CHO to EZF to DCA corridor gets some nice rain around 1"... looks like there are some up to 2" that get lucky
  11. 12z NAM QPF through 00z MON
  12. 12z 3km NAM pretty good for the region besides NW MD/E WV with rain on Sunday... around or just over 0.5" QPF
  13. 00z 3km NAM would also be acceptable... 00z NAM is nice for BR and east... but is almost 12-24 hours slower than the 3km NAM run
  14. 12z NAM at the end of its run brings a bit more rain to the i95 corridor from EZF to DCA than the 06z run did for this weekend FWIW... but its not much tbh. SE MD and EZF and south still have the best bet for rain this weekend
  15. Nice to see blue sky as the sun sets and the wind picks up
  16. Dang... that's nice to hear... hopefully it comes to fruition
  17. Just have to hope that there is a decent amount of cold air nearby and we are good for blast off into winter
  18. 12z GFS agrees... but moves it far enough to our SE that it doesn't affect our region... hits SE VA pretty hard on Sunday
  19. does look nice but then opens up and becomes a cutter... but right after brings a nice cold shot
  20. Radar looks pretty nice for all
  21. Decent rain right now outside in West Springfield
  22. 00z NAM basically cuts the LWX CWA in half... if you're along and east of the BR towards the Bay... 0.5 to 1 inch of rain. West of BR out towards the i81 corridor and into parts of W and C MD... well... good luck. 00z 3km NAM a little better for those west of the BR, but not by much 02z HRRR at LR, FWIW, seems to suggest the "deluge" starts right after lunch with rain amounts approaching an inch along i95 corridor by 20z tomorrow afternoon
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