yoda

Well well surprise surprise @Kmlwx @high risk Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1249 AM CDT Wed Oct 30 2019 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of strong wind gusts are possible from the Upper Ohio Valley into portions of the Mid-Atlantic States and Southeast on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A strong shortwave trough is expected to mature into a vertically stacked mid-latitude cyclone as it moves through the mid MS and OH Valleys and into eastern Ontario and the Northeast States. Very strong mid/upper-level flow will accompany this system, with a 100+ kt 500-mb jet streak moving throughout its eastern periphery across the TN/OH Valleys and into the Northeast. Surface low associated with this system will likely be centered over the IN/OH border early Thursday with an attendant cold front extending south-southwestward through middle TN and central AL and off the central Gulf Coast. This low will occlude as it moves north-northeastward throughout the day. The attendant cold front will sweep eastward across the eastern CONUS, moving off the East Coast of the CONUS late Thursday night. Thunderstorms are anticipated along the length of this front, some which could be severe. ...Southeast into Mid-Atlantic States... Showers and isolated thunderstorms will likely be ongoing within the broad pre-frontal warm sector from the Southeast into the northern Mid-Atlantic. Moisture advection ahead of the front will likely result in low 70s dewpoints across the Southeast, upper 60s/low 70s across much of the Mid-Atlantic, and mid 60s as far north as PA and NJ. Diurnal heating will be tempered by abundant cloud cover and antecedent precipitation but ample low-level will still result in modest instability (i.e. MLCAPE 500-1000 J/kg) ahead of the front. Pre-frontal showers and thunderstorms are anticipated through the mid to late afternoon. Thereafter, the fast-moving cold front will likely catch up to these pre-frontal storms, leading to a consolidation of all the deep convection along the front. The strong southwesterly flow aloft will extend across the entire region and a few of the pre-frontal storms may be able to organize enough to produce damaging wind gusts and perhaps a brief tornado. Once storms consolidate along the front, strong forcing for ascent attendant to the shortwave trough coupled with vertically veering wind profiles will likely lead to a narrow but well-organized convective line. Strong wind gusts will be the main threat within the line and the highest coverage of severe storms is currently expected across the Mid-Atlantic states, from central PA through western SC. A few tornadoes are possible within the line, particularly across the northern Mid-Atlantic where low-level flow will be strongest. Current HREF guidance suggests the probability of any pre-frontal supercells across central VA and the central Carolinas is low. However, the environmental conditions ahead of the front during the late afternoon support supercell development with any persistent deep convection. ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: 5% - Slight Wind: 15% - Slight Hail: 5% - Marginal ..Mosier.. 10/30/2019

If we do get any severe, looks like it would be in the form of damaging winds... don't think there is a tornado threat, but I could be wrong on that

Me lol

For reference -- https://www.weather.gov/lwx/events_2011042728 That tornado was during the 2-3AM time period and tracked 33 miles... probably one of the longest continuous tornado in the LWX CWA

LWX AFD also discusses the threat... saying that even with limited instability, chance for severe storms still there

I assume you all saw SPC outlooked most of us on MRGL for Day 3 Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0220 AM CDT Tue Oct 29 2019 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER OH VALLEY ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND VIRGINIA/CAROLINA PIEDMONT.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms capable of strong wind gusts are possible from the Upper Ohio Valley across the central Appalachians and Virginia/Carolina Piedmont. ...Synopsis... A strong shortwave trough will extend from the Upper Midwest into northeast Mexico early Thursday. This shortwave is expected to quickly move northeastward into the Upper Great Lakes while maturing/deepening into a vertically stacked mid-latitude cyclone. By early Friday morning this mature system is expected to be centered over eastern Ontario/southern Quebec. Very strong southwesterly flow aloft will persist throughout the eastern periphery of the system spreading from the mid MS Valley through the TN and OH Valleys and into the Northeast during the period. At the surface, a low initially over the middle OH Valley will quickly move northeastward while occluding. An attendant cold front will sweep eastward across the eastern CONUS, moving off the East Coast of the CONUS late Thursday night. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are anticipated along and ahead of this front. Given the very strong flow aloft and strong forcing for ascent, a narrow convective line capable of strong wind gusts is anticipated along the front from the Upper OH Valley across the central Appalachians and Virginia/Carolina Piedmont. Limited instability will preclude higher than 5%/Marginal probabilities for this outlook. ..Mosier.. 10/29/2019

Well, it was a good run for the Nats... hope Scherzer neck is okay. Sucks to see the Astros win it all again barring a gem from Strasburg in Game 6 Tuesday night in Houston as the bats have gone ice cold after Game 2

@high risk @Kmlwx Looks like one more chance Froday force severe storm... SPC day 4-8 disco mentions the chance

Evening updated disco from LWX:

LWX in their AFD did mention a slight chance of a weak spinup

Since there were no watches or warnings in effect, advisories are issued at the normal hours

Tropical Depression Seventeen Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172019 1000 AM CDT Fri Oct 25 2019 Satellite imagery indicates that the low pressure system in the western Gulf of Mexico has developed a well-defined circulation. In addition, a cluster of strong convection is located near and to the northeast of the low-level center. Thus, advisories are being initiated on Tropical Depression Seventeen. The initial intensity is set at 30 kt, and it is possible based on last night's scatterometer data that this is conservative. A deep-layer baroclinic trough over the southern Plains states should steer the cyclone north-northeastward with an increase in forward speed during the next couple of days, with the center crossing the northern Gulf coast tonight or Saturday morning. The track guidance is in good agreement, and the forecast track lies close to the various consensus models. A surface cold front associated with the baroclinic trough is quickly approaching the center of the depression, and the tropical cyclone is expected to merge with the front during the next 12 h. Based on this, the cyclone is expected to become a gale-force post-tropical low before it reaches the northern Gulf coast. The low should weaken after landfall, with dissipation expected just after 48 h. There is a chance that the system could briefly become a tropical storm this afternoon before it merges with the cold front. However, even if this occurs it will make little difference to the impacts on the northern Gulf coast. Key messages: 1. Since depression is expected to merge with a cold front and become post-tropical by tonight, hazards related to wind, rainfall and coastal flooding will be covered by products issued by local National Weather Service forecast offices, available at weather.gov FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/1500Z 25.6N 94.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 26/0000Z 28.2N 93.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 26/1200Z 32.6N 91.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 27/0000Z 38.1N 89.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 27/1200Z 43.2N 85.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 28/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven

BULLETIN Tropical Depression Seventeen Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172019 1000 AM CDT Fri Oct 25 2019 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A GALE-FORCE POST-TROPICAL LOW TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.6N 94.4W ABOUT 320 MI...515 KM SSW OF LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal tropical cyclone watches or warnings in effect. Please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service and products from local National Weather Service forecast offices for information on the non-tropical watches and warnings associated with this system. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Seventeen was located near latitude 25.6 North, longitude 94.4 West. The depression is moving toward the north near 16 mph (26 km/h). A motion toward the north-northeast at a faster forward speed is expected this afternoon through Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of the cyclone should move across the northwestern Gulf of Mexico this afternoon and then move over the northern Gulf coast tonight or Saturday morning. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is expected today, and the depression could become a tropical storm this afternoon. The cyclone is then expected to merge with a cold front and become a post-tropical low with gale-force winds tonight before the center reaches the Gulf coast. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the depression this afternoon. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Gale-force winds associated with this system should spread over portions of the northern Gulf coast tonight and Saturday morning. RAINFALL: The depression and rainfall ahead of the system along and north of the frontal boundary across the Central Gulf coast is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches with maximum totals of 8 inches across the Central Gulf coast into the Lower Mississippi Valley through Saturday morning. These rains may produce flash flooding across the Central Gulf coast into the Lower Mississippi Valley. COASTAL FLOODING: Above-normal tides and associated coastal flooding are possible across portions of the northern Gulf coast. Please see products from local National Weather Service forecast offices for additional information. TORNADOES: A couple tornadoes are possible through tonight across southeast portions of Louisiana and Mississippi into southwest Alabama. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Beven

In addition... looks like there could also be another short-lived TC out by the Azores as well per the updated TWO: Special Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 945 AM EDT Fri Oct 25 2019 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Special outlook issued to update discussion of systems in the Gulf of Mexico and southwest of the Azores. 2. Updated: Recent satellite derived winds indicate that the small non-tropical low centered a few hundred miles southwest of the western Azores is producing tropical-storm-force winds near the center. The thunderstorm activity is becoming better organized and if this trend continues a tropical or subtropical cyclone could form later today. The low is forecast to move toward the east-northeast for the next day or so and interests in the Azores should monitor the progress of this system. For more information, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent. High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php Forecaster Avila

Should be a short lived TC before it becomes post-tropical in about 12 hours lol

Still no well defined center though still per the 8pm TWO

This is cool... from Cowan https://mobile.twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1187423031238561793

Yeah... but the TWO makes it seem it only has like 24 hours left or so Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Thu Oct 24 2019 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. Showers and thunderstorms continue to show signs of organization in association with a low pressure system located over the Bay of Campeche. However, recent satellite data indicate that the circulation is elongated and not well defined. This system could become a short-lived tropical depression before it merges with a cold front by late Friday. Regardless of development, gale-force winds are expected behind the cold front over the western Gulf of Mexico on Friday and Saturday. For more information, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent. High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php Forecaster Cangialosi

Nice... enjoy!

12z GFS looks very nice starting next Wednesday wrt temps as the CF comes though on the 30th... 31st and Nov 1st highs are in the upper 40s to lower 50s across the area with lows in the 20s and 30s each night... mid 50s to near 60 from the 2nd to the 4th for highs... then back to the upper 40s for the 5th to the 7th for high temps

Fascinating and intriguing... Texas and Oklahoma panhandles have WWA's up for snowfall in late October... wonder when the last time that happened. And its not for just a "dusting" either... its a nice amount of accumulated snow forecasted... here's one of the WWAs: URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Amarillo TX 959 AM CDT Thu Oct 24 2019 ...Snow Expected Across the Texas and parts of the Oklahoma Panhandles... Snow is falling Cimarron County in the Oklahoma Panhandle and the western stack of the Texas Panhandle. Additional snow bands are expected to form across the southern Texas Panhandle, with brief heavy snowfall that could cause reduced visibility in area roadways. There may even be rumbles of thunder in association with the snow. TXZ007-019-242300- /O.EXA.KAMA.WW.Y.0012.191024T1500Z-191025T0600Z/ Moore-Donley- Including the cities of Dumas and Clarendon 959 AM CDT Thu Oct 24 2019 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM CDT FRIDAY... * WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations between 2 to 4 inches. Winds gusting as high as 45 mph. * WHERE...Moore and Donley Counties. * WHEN...From 10 AM this morning to 1 AM CDT Friday.

It has about 24-36 hours before it gets absorbed by the front (NHC also states this in their 8am TWO)... sounds like another system that develops in the GOM and then is gone 48 hours later... I think this would be the 3rd system this year that's done that

Looks like 12z EURO is keeping the cutoff low idea through 168

@mattie g will be happy... moderate rain ongoing right now and radar looks good