yoda

12z NAM pushing a little harder on the potential TOR threat this evening... gets SBCAPE up to near 800 J/KG and MLCAPE near 1000 J/KG at KIAD at 00z with EHI at 3.0 and 1km SRH at 470 m2/s2. STP is 6.6 and LCLs are fairly low - under 400m

Right above you

Well this post aged well... there was a gem from Strasburg in Game 6 and the Nats bats came alive in both Game 6 and 7... congrats to the Nats on becoming WS Champs

@high risk @Kmlwx @Eskimo Joe ENH risk on 0600 Day 1 OTLK... rather large 5% tor and 30% wind probs

Yes, that's correct

I would believe so... is that correct @high risk?

Ton of low level shear at 00z THUR at KDCA on the 00z NAM sounding... look at the winds turn, damn... also 60kts at 900mb is yikes

Seeing some SRH values approaching or exceeding 400 m2/s2 at the 1km level... hodographs are decently curved as well around 00z

I hear schools are closing tomorrow

So... who's staying up tonight for the 0600 SPC Day 1 OTLK at or just before 2 am? Anyone?

Subtropical Storm Rebekah Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192019 500 PM AST Wed Oct 30 2019 Cloudiness and showers associated with a small low pressure system embedded within a larger non-tropical low over the north-central Atlantic have become better organized during the day. The cyclone has a broken convective band that wraps about halfway around its eastern semicircle, with a small area of central convection near its center. The cloud tops within the convection are not particularly cold and the system is co-located with a large upper-level low, so it is initially designated as a subtropical cyclone. The intensity is assessed as 40 kt based primarily on earlier ASCAT data. It is worth mentioning that the system also has some characteristics of a tropical cyclone, since the radius of maximum winds is not very large and the system has some moderate central convection. Much like Pablo just a few days ago, Rebekah is currently rotating around a larger non-tropical low pressure system. The initial motion estimate is 080/11 kt, but an east-northeastward motion is expected later tonight. The track model spread is larger than normal and confidence in the track forecast is low, though most of the models generally show Rebekah turning back toward the east by early Friday, followed by a turn toward the east-southeast until it dissipates later this week. On the forecast track, the center of Rebekah is forecast to approach the western-most Azores early Friday as a post-tropical/extratropical cyclone. The intensity guidance unanimously forecasts that Rebekah will change little in strength during the next 24 h, though given the small size of the cyclone, some short-term fluctuations are possible tonight. Most of the dynamical models then forecast that Rebekah's convection will decrease substantially by early Friday, likely due to a combination of colder SSTs and unfavorable upper-level winds. The cyclone is therefore forecast to become post-tropical around that time, and gradual weakening is expected. Rebekah will likely dissipate by the weekend, if not sooner. Since Rebekah is not currently forecast to be a tropical or subtropical cyclone when it nears the Azores, hazard information can be found in regular products issued by the Portuguese Institute for the Sea and Atmosphere (IPMA) for those islands. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/2100Z 38.3N 40.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 31/0600Z 39.0N 38.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 31/1800Z 39.9N 35.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 01/0600Z 39.8N 31.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 01/1800Z 38.9N 26.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 02/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky

BULLETIN Subtropical Storm Rebekah Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192019 500 PM AST Wed Oct 30 2019 ...SUBTROPICAL STORM REBEKAH FORMS OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...38.3N 40.7W ABOUT 745 MI...1195 KM W OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 80 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- Interests in the Azores should monitor the progress of Rebekah. There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Rebekah was located near latitude 38.3 North, longitude 40.7 West. Rebekah is moving toward the east near 13 mph (20 km/h) and is forecast to turn toward the east-northeast tonight. A turn back toward the east and east-southeast is anticipated on Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is anticipated for the next day or so. Gradual weakening is anticipated thereafter, and Rebekah is forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone on Friday. Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb (29.15 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Rebekah is forecast to be a post-tropical cyclone when it moves near the Azores in a day or so. Please see products issued by the Portuguese Institute for the Sea and Atmosphere (IPMA) for hazard information in the Azores related to Rebekah. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky

You are correct. NHC will begin advisories on STS Rebekah at 5pm

Here are the others I found on the SPC archive for Tornado Watches covering any part of the LWX CWA from November: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/archive/event.php?date=20101130 (November 30th, 2010 and went into Dec 1, 2010 as a Tornado Watch was issued for the DC metro at 3:45am on Dec 1st) https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/archive/event.php?date=20101116 (Nov 16 2010) https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/archive/event.php?date=20061116 (Nov 16, 2006 -- in addition 1630 Day 1 OTLK had the ultra rare hatched TOR for i95 corridor including DC/BALT metros... along with the mention for isolated but potentially strong tornadoes in the 1630 SPC disco) https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/archive/event.php?date=20021110 (Nov 11, 2002) Looks like only one for December: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/archive/event.php?date=20001216 (Dec 16, 2000) The archive only goes back to 2000 though... so I am sure there were others before 2000 that had tornado watches for any portion of the LWX CWA

Yup... but I was including only LWX CWA counties... looks like in 2010 we had a tornado watch on back to back days in October (26th and 27th)

Here is one... October 27th, 2010 -- https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/archive/event.php?date=20101027

You know she will have pictures of one tomorrow on her table

I believe @Eskimo Joe already called for a tornado watch tomorrow Wonder when the last time we have had a tornado watch issued for the LWX CWA in October or later... will have to look in the SPC archives after work

Sounds like it even though its a secondary threat as they state in the AFD... i posted the rest of it above just before your post

Guess you are in? Rest of disco sounds... scary for Halloween

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 PM CDT Wed Oct 30 2019 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of strong wind gusts are expected across much of the eastern U.S. Thursday -- particularly from areas along and east of the central and southern Appalachians to the mid Atlantic and Carolinas coastal areas. ...Synopsis... An upper trough crossing the central U.S. at the start of the period will evolve into a deepening closed low with time, as the system shifts quickly east-northeastward across the Midwest, and then into the Northeast overnight. As this occurs, the broader trough surrounding the low will gradually take on a more neutral to slightly negative tilt, through the end of the period. As this occurs, a cold front -- initially trailing from a low near the KY vicinity southward across Alabama to near the mouth of the Mississippi River -- will advance steadily eastward during the day. The front should cross the Appalachian crest by afternoon, as the parent low rapidly deepens and eventually occludes over the Lower Great Lakes area, reaching the Atlantic coast after midnight. This front will focus a band of showers and thunderstorms -- and attendant risk for severe weather primarily along and east of the mountains. ...Portions of the PA/NY vicinity southward/southwestward to the southern Appalachians... A zone of showers and thunderstorms should be ongoing at the start of the period from the mid Ohio Valley/Mid South region south-southwestward to the western Gulf of Mexico, in the vicinity of an advancing surface cold front. A secondary area of showers -- perhaps with some embedded lightning -- will be shifting quickly northeastward across the Carolinas/Virginia vicinity. Only minimal severe risk -- mainly in the form of gusty winds or a brief tornado -- is apparent at this time within either of these areas of convection through the first several hours of the period. With time, the advance of the cold front across the southern, and then the central, Appalachians during the afternoon in conjunction with the strengthening upper system will result in gradual organization of a band of frontal convection. Very strong flow aloft will aid in the convective organization, with upscale evolution toward a semi-continuous band of storms expected. By late afternoon/early evening, storms will likely have become fairly well-organized, crossing south-central and southeastern PA, MD, VA, and the Carolinas along with attendant risk for strong/damaging wind gusts. Low-level wind profiles will become supportive of supercells during the afternoon across the pre-frontal warm sector. While suggestive of some tornado potential, pre-frontal warm-sector storms are largely not anticipated. Still, a few mainly QLCS-type tornadoes will be possible, given the overall dynamic/kinematic set-up -- particularly from late afternoon through mid evening. As storms near the coast overnight, gradual weakening of the convection -- and associated diminishing of the severe risk -- is expected, though limited wind risk will likely extend to near the mid Atlantic/Carolina coasts overnight. ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: 5% - Slight Wind: 30% - Enhanced Hail: 5% - Marginal ..Goss.. 10/30/2019

ENH ISSUED ON 1730 OTLK

Agreed. 12z NAM at 00z THURS says DCA is in the mid 70s.... and then mid 40s with upper 30s back in the i81 corridor at 06z THURS... ETA: 12z 3km NAM does the same as the 12z NAM re temps... DCA is still in the mid 70s at 01z THUR as the line comes in

Line still looks nice as it crosses the i95 corridor at 03z... snow showers ongoing in the far western part of the LWX CWA

12z NAM waits too long... has the line coming through the i81 corridor at 00z Halloween night