yoda

New MCD sounds a bit ominous

Sun and some blue sky amongst breaks in the clouds here now

First STW issued by LWX

ENH remains at 2000 SPC OTLK

I see the 18z GSO sounding up on SPC... but no LWX yet

I want the hatched tornado at 2000 OTLK if we were magically going to get hatching

Didn't see that mentioned in the AFD... guess you got notice through work?

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 238 PM EDT Thu Oct 31 2019 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure over Lake Erie this afternoon will track northeastward up the Saint Lawrence River valley through Friday, dragging a powerful cold front across the Mid-Atlantic this evening. High pressure will build in for Friday through Saturday. A much weaker and drier cold front will cross the region Saturday night. Another high pressure will build across the region Sunday through Monday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... Strengthening, dynamic storm system is currently crossing the eastern United States. So far, we`ve only seen some periods of rain and considerably warmer-than-normal temperatures with a gusty south breeze. However, the cold front will cross the region late this afternoon and this evening. Very strong wind fields in excess of 50 knots very close to the surface are resulting in plenty of shear, and the powerful cold front will also feature a dramatic pressure rise of 10 mb or more in just a couple hours immediately behind it. The warm and moist air mass with PW`s closing in on 2 inches is trying to destabilize, and while its nothing compared to what we get in early summer, enough CAPE and shear are present with the potent dynamics aloft to promote widespread severe weather. Most of this should be in the form of the squall line currently seen on radar over West Virginia stretching southward into the western Carolinas, which will be racing northeastward across our region through this evening. However, just enough instability is present such that a discrete supercell ahead of the main line can`t be completely ruled out this evening. With all the wind present aloft, it won`t take much to bring damaging gusts down to the surface. In addition, the low level shear will bring a risk of quickly spinning up tornadoes right on the main line. A tornado watch may be issued in the next few hours. With the high PW`s, there is a risk of heavy rain and brief minor flooding, though expect the rain to be just brief enough to preclude the issuance of a flash flood watch. Winds may also last or reintensify right behind the squall line and could gust up to 45-50 mph for an hour or so right behind the front. Given the close proximity of this feature to the main squalls, decided to not issue a wind advisory for locations east of the current advisory, but its possible a short- fuse one gets issued to cover this threat in the next few hours. Otherwise, the main advisory should cover the greater period of higher gusts likely at the higher elevations in western VA and WV. Behind the main squall line and winds, clearing skies should take hold in most areas as high pressure builds in. The cold air moving in could reach our highest elevations quickly enough to bring a coating of snow, but this is most likely confined to locations above 4000 feet, such as Spruce Knob. Elsewhere, drying conditions with lows in the 40s can be expected after midnight.

Getting a little bit of sun poking through the clouds here right now

Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1240 PM EDT Thu Oct 31 2019 ANZ530>543-DCZ001-MDZ003>006-011-013-014-016>018-501>508- VAZ025>031-036>040-050>057-501>508-WVZ050>053-055-501>506-010000- Chesapeake Bay north of Pooles Island MD- Chesapeake Bay from Pooles Island to Sandy Point MD- Chesapeake Bay from Sandy Point to North Beach MD- Chesapeake Bay from North Beach to Drum Point MD- Chesapeake Bay from Drum Point MD to Smith Point VA- Tidal Potomac from Key Bridge to Indian Head MD- Tidal Potomac from Indian Head to Cobb Island MD- Tidal Potomac from Cobb Island MD to Smith Point VA- Patapsco River including Baltimore Harbor- Chester River to Queenstown MD-Eastern Bay- Choptank River to Cambridge MD and the Little Choptank River- Patuxent River to Broomes Island MD- Tangier Sound and the inland waters surrounding Bloodsworth Island-District of Columbia-Washington-Frederick MD-Carroll- Northern Baltimore-Southern Baltimore-Prince Georges-Anne Arundel- Charles-St. Marys-Calvert-Extreme Western Allegany- Central and Eastern Allegany-Northwest Montgomery- Central and Southeast Montgomery-Northwest Howard- Central and Southeast Howard-Northwest Harford-Southeast Harford- Augusta-Rockingham-Shenandoah-Frederick VA-Page-Warren-Clarke- Nelson-Albemarle-Greene-Madison-Rappahannock-Orange-Culpeper- Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park-Fairfax- Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria-Stafford-Spotsylvania- King George-Northern Fauquier-Southern Fauquier-Western Highland- Eastern Highland-Western Loudoun-Eastern Loudoun- Northern Virginia Blue Ridge-Central Virginia Blue Ridge- Hampshire-Morgan-Berkeley-Jefferson-Hardy-Western Grant- Eastern Grant-Western Mineral-Eastern Mineral-Western Pendleton- Eastern Pendleton- Including the cities of Washington, Hagerstown, Frederick, Ballenger Creek, Eldersburg, Westminster, Reisterstown, Cockeysville, Baltimore, Bowie, Suitland-Silver Hill, Clinton, College Park, Greenbelt, Laurel, Camp Springs, Glen Burnie, Annapolis, Severn, South Gate, Severna Park, Arnold, Odenton, St. Charles, Waldorf, Lexington Park, California, Chesapeake Beach, Huntingtown, Dunkirk, North Beach, Lusby, Prince Frederick, Frostburg, Cumberland, Germantown, Damascus, Bethesda, Rockville, Gaithersburg, Silver Spring, Lisbon, Columbia, Ellicott City, Jarrettsville, Aberdeen, Staunton, Waynesboro, Stuarts Draft, Harrisonburg, Strasburg, Woodstock, Mount Jackson, New Market, Winchester, Luray, Shenandoah, Stanley, Front Royal, Berryville, Lovingston, Charlottesville, Stanardsville, Madison, Orange, Gordonsville, Culpeper, Dale City, Manassas, Woodbridge, Lake Ridge, Montclair, Reston, Herndon, Annandale, Centreville, Chantilly, McLean, Franconia, Arlington, Alexandria, Falls Church, Falmouth, Fredericksburg, Dahlgren, Warrenton, Turnbull, Hightown, Monterey, Purcellville, Leesburg, Ashburn, Sterling, Big Meadows, Wintergreen, Romney, Paw Paw, Martinsburg, Charles Town, Shepherdstown, Moorefield, Bayard, Mount Storm, Petersburg, Elk Garden, Antioch, Keyser, New Creek, Ridgeville, Russelldale, Headsville, Fort Ashby, Riverton, Brandywine, Franklin, Oak Flat, Ruddle, and Sugar Grove 1240 PM EDT Thu Oct 31 2019 ...DAMAGING LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN MID AFTERNOON AND MIDNIGHT... A line of thunderstorms is expected to move east across the region. These storms will bring the possibility of damaging wind gusts and isolated tornadoes. Please be sheltered when these thunderstorms pass through your area. The most likely timing of the line ranges from mid to late afternoon for the Potomac Highlands, to the evening for the Baltimore/Washington metros, to between 9pm and midnight for areas east of I-95 to the Chesapeake Bay. The storms will likely last an hour or less in most areas. Stay informed. For more exact timing for your location, consult the forecast for your community at our website weather.gov or our Facebook or Twitter feeds for National Weather Service Baltimore/Washington. $$ STRONG

Starting to see the heavy wording in the STW's being issued by MRX and RLX stating either "widespread wind damage is occuring" or "intense thunderstorm lines can produce brief tornadoes and widespread significant wind damage "

Expected TOR too... and they mention potential discrete sups as well Mesoscale Discussion 2129 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1211 PM CDT Thu Oct 31 2019 Areas affected...Parts of northern North Carolina...much of Virginia...western and central Maryland...south central Pennsylvania Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 311711Z - 311945Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...One or more severe weather watches will likely be needed east of the Allegheny and Blue Ridge Mountains by 4-5 PM EDT. However, isolated severe storm development, including a risk for supercells, could require an earlier watch (likely tornado) issuance. DISCUSSION...Low-level and deep-layer shear are already strong to extreme across and east of the Allegheny and Blue Ridge Mountains, within deepening lee surface troughing, to the southeast of the intensifying surface cyclone now approaching Lake Erie. Despite weak mid/upper lapse rates, the northward return of seasonably moist boundary layer air (including surface dew points near 70F), coupled with boundary layer warming, is also contributing to modest destabilization across this region. Mixed-layer CAPE probably will continue to increase through the 500-1000+ J/kg range into mid to late afternoon, perhaps as far north as south central Pennsylvania. The primary increase in severe weather potential to the east of the Allegheny Mountains still appears likely to occur in association with an intensifying squall line near/just ahead of an approaching strengthening cold front, mainly during and after the 21-23Z time frame. However, it might not be out of the question that the ongoing destabilization, weakening inhibition, and perhaps forcing for ascent associated with weak warm advection, may become sufficient to support isolated to widely scattered discrete convective development in advance of the front. If this occurs, the environment will probably be conducive to supercells, which may be accompanied by the risk for tornadoes, in addition to localized strong surface gusts. ..Kerr/Grams.. 10/31/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RAH...RNK...GSP...

30/20 on the TOR probs and 70/30 on the WIND probs in that watch to our west

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 685 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 PM EDT Thu Oct 31 2019 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Far east Kentucky Far northwest North Carolina Far northeast Tennessee Southwest Virginia West Virginia * Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 1245 PM until 700 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible SUMMARY...A thin line of low-topped convection should spread rapidly northeast this afternoon. Damaging winds from strong to locally severe wind gusts will be the primary hazard. Some intensification to the line is anticipated towards late afternoon, which should support a risk for a couple tornadoes. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles east and west of a line from 20 miles southeast of Bristol TN to 50 miles northwest of Elkins WV. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 0.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 350. Mean storm motion vector 21045.

Tornado Watch issued to our west

That end up confirmed later on? Or just TWs issued by LWX?

Subtropical Storm Rebekah Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192019 1100 AM AST Thu Oct 31 2019 The storm has lost organization since yesterday with only a skeletal curved band west and north of the center. However, ASCAT just came in with 35-40 kt winds, so the initial wind speed will stay 40 kt. Weakening is anticipated today as the low moves over cool waters and into a convergent environment aloft. All of the guidance shows any remaining convection dissipating by this evening, so the storm will likely be in the graveyard in about 12 h. A general eastward track is forecast until Rebekah decomposes into a trough sometime tomorrow, at best becoming a wave along an approaching cold front. Since Rebekah is not expected to be a tropical or subtropical cyclone near the Azores, hazard information can be found in regular products issued by the Portuguese Institute for the Sea and Atmosphere (IPMA) for those islands at https://www.ipma.pt/pt/index.html. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 31/1500Z 40.7N 35.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 01/0000Z 41.1N 32.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 24H 01/1200Z 41.0N 27.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 02/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake

BULLETIN Subtropical Storm Rebekah Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192019 1100 AM AST Thu Oct 31 2019 ...REBEKAH LOSING ORGANIZATION OVER THE FAR NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...40.7N 35.3W ABOUT 480 MI...775 KM WNW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 70 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- Interests in the Azores should monitor the progress of Rebekah. There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Rebekah was located near latitude 40.7 North, longitude 35.3 West. The storm is moving toward the east-northeast near 18 mph (30 km/h). An eastward turn with some increase in forward speed is anticipated by early Friday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. The storm should weaken and become a post-tropical cyclone by this evening or early tomorrow. Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Rebekah is forecast to be a post-tropical cyclone when it moves near the Azores in a day or so. Please see products issued by the Portuguese Institute for the Sea and Atmosphere (IPMA) for hazard information in the Azores related to Rebekah, which can found at https://www.ipma.pt/pt/index.html. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Blake

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1112 AM CDT Thu Oct 31 2019 Valid 311630Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF NC...VA...WV...MD...DC...PA... ...SUMMARY... An extensive squall line of strong to severe thunderstorms is expected to develop during the late afternoon into this evening, near and east of the Appalachians from parts of New York to the Carolinas. At least a few tornadoes and scattered to widespread damaging winds are possible. ...Northeast to the Carolinas... Have upgraded peak probabilities for both wind and tornado hazards with an active period of severe weather anticipated later this afternoon into the evening. An amplifying shortwave trough now over IL will accelerate east-northeast toward the Saint Lawrence Valley through tonight toward PA/NY, while taking on a more neutral-to-negative tilt with peak 500 mb wind speeds exceeding 120 kt. Strong surface cyclogenesis is expected in advance of the amplifying trough, with a cyclone moving from OH to far southern QC by early Friday. South of the deepening cyclone, a strong cold front will sweep eastward across the Appalachians this afternoon, reaching the Atlantic coast overnight. The cold front will be the primary focus for severe thunderstorms through this evening. Northward advection of low-level moisture will continue with mid 60s boundary-layer dew points up the OH Valley west of the Appalachians and across southeast PA to coastal southern New England. Poor low to mid-level lapse rates amid widespread clouds will hinder destabilization with northern extent in the Northeast. Richer low-level moisture (upper 60s to low 70s boundary-layer dew points) and some surface heating in cloud breaks will support a confined plume of MLCAPE between 750-1500 J/kg across parts of VA into the Carolinas at peak heating. Within the warm sector, vertical shear will increase in response to the approach and deepening of the mid-level trough/surface cyclone. Long hodographs with effective bulk shear of 50-60 kt are expected, and there will also be enlarged low-level hodograph curvature for numerous rotating storms amid effective SRH of 300-500 m2/s2. Strong linear forcing for ascent along the cold front will be the primary focus for storm development, mainly east of the Appalachians later this afternoon/evening. The strong linear ascent will favor upscale growth into a squall line, though strong deep-layer shear and enough east component to storm motions should allow embedded supercell structures to persist. The modest buoyancy and very strong 850-700 mb flow will favor damaging winds as the primary threat. These could be potentially widespread within longer-tracked bowing segments. At least a few tornadoes are also anticipated with embedded supercell and mesovortex structures, particularly from central NC to central MD. The severe threat will diminish during the late evening to overnight given an increasing dearth of surface-based instability with east/northeast extent. ..Grams/Wendt.. 10/31/2019

10% TOR PROBS AND 45% WIND PROBS ON 1630 OTLK

First TW of the day issued from KMRX in extreme SW VA

Mesoscale Discussion 2128 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1012 AM CDT Thu Oct 31 2019 Areas affected...Parts of eastern North Carolina...northeastern Tennessee...southwestern Virginia...far eastern Kentucky...West Virginia and southwestern Pennsylvania Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 311512Z - 311715Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...A more substantial increase in potential for severe wind gusts, and perhaps isolated tornadoes, is expected with a developing line of storms during the 1-3 PM EDT time frame. One or more watches probably will be needed within the next couple of hours. DISCUSSION...Although mid/upper-level lapse rates across much of the region are more or less moist adiabatic, latest objective analysis suggests that boundary layer warming and moistening are contributing to at least weak destabilization along the western slopes of the Allegheny Mountains. Mixed-layer CAPE may not become much more than roughly 500 J/kg, but this is expected to occur in the presence of strengthening lower/mid tropospheric wind fields, as deepening of the surface cyclone (now centered near Columbus OH) proceeds more rapidly through early to mid afternoon. Model forecast soundings indicate south to southwesterly flow intensifying to 50-70+ kt, just off the surface through around 500 mb, as the strengthening surface cold front advances toward the Alleghenies. This is expected to coincide with increasing lift along/ahead of the cold front, aided by forcing for upward vertical motion ahead of a vigorous short wave trough gradually pivoting east of the the Mississippi Valley, to support an intensifying line of thunderstorms. It is possible that this may be gradually underway across parts of northeastern Tennessee through eastern Kentucky and southeastern Ohio, but a more notable increase/intensification seems more likely during the 17-19Z time frame, before gradually spreading eastward into/through the Appalachians. As convection intensifies, downward momentum transport in downdrafts will contribute to increasing potential for damaging convective surface gusts. Large low-level hodographs could also support supercell structures along and perhaps just ahead of the developing line of storms, with a risk for tornadoes. ..Kerr/Grams.. 10/31/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...GSP...MRX...JKL...

12z 3km NAM has a mean squall line/QLCS that comes roaring through the LWX CWA -- around 23z for I81 corridor... 01z along the BR... and 02z through I95 corridor

lol 12z NAM throwing out PDS TOR down by EZF and and just south of Warrenton on the soundings on pivotalweather for 00z in the possible hazard type