yoda

Quick stupid question... would the ICON be what we want with the strength of the s/w? Or do we want a stronger s/w that threads the needle?

Before the Monday system... total snowfall for the area predicted by 00z Euro by 12z Monday Total snowfall by 06z TUES... by this time most everyone has changed to rain or is in the process of N and W of the metros... no real additional accumulations are shown after this image for the LWX CWA

00z Euro has a quick thump late Monday before changing to rain on Tuesday morning

04z HRRR has two bands of snow move through DC metro... one around 08z and then the second and final one at 11z

If that HP in the Northern Plains can move in tandem with the SLP in LA at 240 on the 00z GFS... And a southern slider... with rain. Interesting...

00z GFS wants no part of what the ICON shows and blows up a huge cutter for middle of next week - but it does bring in some nice arctic air in the process as it moves into Canada

We pray

Updated SWS for the DC metro and i95 weenies Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 201 PM EST Tue Dec 10 2019 DCZ001-MDZ011-013-014-016-504-506-508-VAZ052>055-110100- District of Columbia-Southern Baltimore-Prince Georges- Anne Arundel-Charles-Central and Southeast Montgomery- Central and Southeast Howard-Southeast Harford- Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park-Fairfax- Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria-Stafford- Including the cities of Washington, Baltimore, Bowie, Suitland-Silver Hill, Clinton, College Park, Greenbelt, Laurel, Camp Springs, Glen Burnie, Annapolis, Severn, South Gate, Severna Park, Arnold, Odenton, St. Charles, Waldorf, Bethesda, Rockville, Gaithersburg, Silver Spring, Columbia, Ellicott City, Aberdeen, Dale City, Manassas, Woodbridge, Lake Ridge, Montclair, Reston, Herndon, Annandale, Centreville, Chantilly, McLean, Franconia, Arlington, Alexandria, Falls Church, and Falmouth 201 PM EST Tue Dec 10 2019 ...POTENTIAL WINTER COMMUTING HAZARD FOR THE BALTIMORE MD/ WASHINGTON DC METRO AREAS WEDNESDAY MORNING... There is a potential for hazardous commuting conditions for the Wednesday morning commute. A period of accumulating snow is POSSIBLE Wednesday morning across the Baltimore MD/Washington DC metro areas, with up to an inch of snow accumulation possible on area roads, with the highest chances north and west of Interstate 95. If this threat does materialize during the Wednesday morning rush-hour, many roads could quickly turn slippery and visibility may be reduced. This could lead to dangerous traveling conditions, multiple accidents, and extensive delays. If commuting Wednesday morning, be aware of the POSSIBILITY of significant travel disruptions. Plan ahead by allowing for extra travel time, and consider using public transportation and telework options. Stay tuned for updates on this potential winter weather episode. $$ DHOF/CJL

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 228 PM EST Tue Dec 10 2019 MDZ004>006-503-505-507-VAZ505-506-110330- /O.NEW.KLWX.WW.Y.0031.191211T0700Z-191211T1300Z/ Frederick MD-Carroll-Northern Baltimore-Northwest Montgomery- Northwest Howard-Northwest Harford-Western Loudoun- Eastern Loudoun- 228 PM EST Tue Dec 10 2019 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EST WEDNESDAY... * WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations 1 to 2 inches are expected, with isolated totals of 3 inches possible for elevations above 1000 feet. * WHERE...Portions of north-central Maryland and northern Virginia. * WHEN...From 2 AM to 8 AM EST Wednesday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the Wednesday morning commute. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Rain showers are expected to mix with and change to snow after midnight. While most accumulations will be confined to elevated surfaces, brief and localized heavier periods of snow could result in accumulation even on paved surfaces. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Slow down and use caution while traveling. When venturing outside, watch your first few steps taken on steps, sidewalks, and driveways, which could be icy and slippery, increasing your risk of a fall and injury. &&

At least its not sitting out at the 10 day mark like it did all of last winter... we've got in the Day 7 or so range now lol

We lose 850s (besides N and W of the metros) at 168 looks like

As long as they don't issue a pyroclastic flow watch

I was more pointing out that driving around here when its snowing is a nightmare... with or without a WWA. People still speed or drive super slow and its like OMG SNOWERZ and all of a sudden people can't drive correctly

What will probably happen is that WWA's will be issued for the i81 corridor to the BR in the afternoon package... and then WWA for the metro's in the late evening package or early morning package

A few years ago, it was snowing. A dusting was expected. Accidents occurred and there were 30 mile backups on the beltway. For a DUSTING. Snow always causes problems here even if it doesn't accumulate on the main roads

I edited my post right after that... wrong name of the SLP Transfers pretty much over top of us though

Looks like a classic rare transfer coming up on the 12z GFS for Christmas

I know the maps suck... but TT has 30" of snow/sleet/frozen in NE GA into SW SC at 294

GFS is taking forever with this system... its like a 3 day storm for the south and SE and still hasn't reached us yet

Usually Prince William or Fauquier closes first

Pretty sure that the 12z GFS is going to be very tasty in the Dec 22-23 time period for us with that sprawling HP

Thats what happens with a 1048mb-1050mb HP cruising into the Plains at that time

With a bunch of closings and delays for schools much to @mattie g's delight

30% chance of accumulating snow

00z UKMET meteogram for DCA... I would guess something like 12-13mm or so should be snow if taken literally... which is around 0.5" QPF