yoda

West Springfield at 3pm with +SN

I will enjoy the weekend weather the Euro has spoken about if the EPS is correct about that time period of interest in a decent winter storm

Mesoscale Discussion 0006 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CST Tue Jan 07 2020 Areas affected...Parts of northern Virginia...central Maryland and south central Pennsylvania Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 071729Z - 071930Z SUMMARY...A 1 to 3 hour period of snow, perhaps occasionally including rates in excess of 1 inch per hour, will impact areas near and west through north of the District of Columbia through 2-4 PM EST. DISCUSSION...Lower/mid tropospheric warm advection ahead of a vigorous short wave trough is contributing to an area of strong lift now beginning to spread east-northeast of the Blue Ridge. Particularly across northern Virginia, central Maryland and adjacent portions of south central Pennsylvania, lift is becoming maximized in the 700-500 mb layer, where forecast soundings indicate temperature and moisture profiles are becoming conducive to large dendritic ice crystal growth. Although near surface profiles are initially relatively dry and warm across and northwest of the Washington D.C. metropolitan area, evaporative cooling/melting within an initial burst of heavy snow should cool and saturate this environment sufficiently to allow for a period of accumulating snow. Aided by precipitable water on the order of .4 to .5 inches, this may include snow rates of 1/2 to 1 inch+ per hour, before stronger mid-level ascent spreads east-northeast of the D.C. area. Although this lift may overspread the Baltimore and Philadelphia metropolitan areas later this afternoon, an initially warmer boundary layer (surface temperatures now in the lower/mid 40s) across these areas seem likely to result in decreasing potential for accumulating snow. ..Kerr.. 01/07/2020 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX...

Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1058 AM EST Tue Jan 7 2020 MDZ003-004-503-504-VAZ052-053-501-502-505-506-WVZ051>053-071800- Washington-Frederick MD-Northwest Montgomery- Central and Southeast Montgomery- Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park-Fairfax-Northern Fauquier- Southern Fauquier-Western Loudoun-Eastern Loudoun-Morgan-Berkeley- Jefferson- Including the cities of Hagerstown, Frederick, Ballenger Creek, Germantown, Damascus, Bethesda, Rockville, Gaithersburg, Silver Spring, Dale City, Manassas, Woodbridge, Lake Ridge, Montclair, Reston, Herndon, Annandale, Centreville, Chantilly, McLean, Franconia, Warrenton, Turnbull, Purcellville, Leesburg, Ashburn, Sterling, Paw Paw, Martinsburg, Charles Town, and Shepherdstown 1058 AM EST Tue Jan 7 2020 ...PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW THIS AFTERNOON... Radar and surface observations just before 11 AM indicated a sudden onset of heavy snow moving across eastern West Virginia, northern Maryland and portions of northern Virginia. Visibility was dropping from unrestricted to a half mile or less in the span of 15 to 30 minutes, with snowfall rates of over one inch per hour reported. This heavy snow is expected to reach Highway 15 by 11:30 AM, and approach Interstate 95 by 1 PM. Remain alert for rapidly changing visiblities and quickly deteriorating road conditions.

I know its not the same... but wasn't the St. Patty's Day storm (March 2017 I think?) the same temp wise? Got into the 40s, snow started instead of rain due to the DP/T depression? Yes, March does not equal January... but that popped up into my mind

That'd be nice... but I don't think there will be any MUCAPE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1019 AM EST Tue Jan 7 2020 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure will pass south of the area this afternoon. High pressure will build over the region Wednesday and hold through the end of the week. Another area of low pressure will pass northeast of the area late in the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Made a few minor tweaks to tighten the snowfall gradient along the I-95 corridor, speed up the onset timing by an hour or two, as well as nudge totals upward over higher terrain and northern Maryland per upstream obs/latest guidance. Knocked a couple degrees off the hourly temps as well. Otherwise, forecast remains on track. Impressive burst of snow upstream over West Virginia with visibility to 1/4 mile or less, and already reports of accumulations of an inch in under 30 minutes. It`s not the duration or total amounts expected, but the intensity and timing (with the evening commute for the I-95 corridor) that are expected to have a high impact.

Still good to go DCZ001-MDZ004>006-011-503>508-VAZ053-054-506-072315- /O.CON.KLWX.WW.Y.0002.200107T1700Z-200108T0000Z/ District of Columbia-Frederick MD-Carroll-Northern Baltimore- Southern Baltimore-Northwest Montgomery- Central and Southeast Montgomery-Northwest Howard- Central and Southeast Howard-Northwest Harford-Southeast Harford- Fairfax-Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria-Eastern Loudoun- 1004 AM EST Tue Jan 7 2020 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING... * WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 1 to 3 inches, with locally higher amounts over northern Maryland. * WHERE...The Baltimore and Washington metro area. * WHEN...From noon to 7 PM EST Tuesday. The heaviest snow is expected between 2 PM and 6 PM. * IMPACTS...Snow covered and slippery roads are expected. This will impact the evening commute. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow rates could exceed one inch per hour with visibility around one-quarter mile at times.

I know this is in elevation, but still nice to see PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 945 AM EST TUE JAN 07 2020 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0939 AM SNOW 2 SSW MOUNT STORM 39.25N 79.26W 01/07/2020 M1.0 INCH GRANT WV PUBLIC

"Snow may be heavy at times" is in the zones... been a while

Yup

DC looks to be 0.40 or so on 00z GFS QPF

00z RGEM is lol... DC snowhole

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 957 PM EST Mon Jan 6 2020 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will remain overhead overnight. Low pressure will move quickly northeast across the region Tuesday. Another area of high pressure will transit the region Wednesday and Thursday before a cold front approaches on Friday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... High pressure has settled overhead and it will remain overhead through late tonight. There will be some high clouds ahead of approaching low pressure, but the cloud deck will be thin. Therefore, radiational cooling is expected and min temps are expected to drop into the 20s for most areas to the 30s in the urban areas and near the waters. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Moving into tomorrow, a compact shortwave will approach from the OH/TN Valleys, bringing a period of snow to the region. While the shortwave itself won`t be large in areal extent, it will be a sharp feature, with a very short wavelength (which will lead to strong lift in the zone of differential cyclonic vorticity advection in advance of the wave). Given the short wavelength and the rapid movement of the shortwave, the areal extent of the precipitation is expected to be small, but the precipitation may be rather intense. Expect that snow at least reaches moderate intensity in most locations, and brief bursts of heavy snow can`t be ruled out. Guidance has progressively trended heavier with the QPF over the last few model runs, and some models indicate 1 hourly QPF values in excess of one tenth of an inch will be possible across central Virginia late tomorrow morning and toward northern VA/central MD/eastern WV Tuesday afternoon. As a result, we`ve upped snow totals and raised Winter Weather Advisories for most locations northwest of Interstate 95. For the suburbs of Washington into the Baltimore Metropolitan area, temperatures will be well above freezing to start and this does lower confidence in the forecast. However, the warm layer will be thin so latest thinking is that evaporative cooling and dynamical cooling from heavier precip rates should overcome that warm air. This is why these areas were added into the advisory. Farther south and east confidence lowers due to even warmer conditions preceding the event. Having that been said, a period of accumulating snow is even possible in DC into the southern and eastern suburbs. Also, the Winter Weather Advisory may need to be expanded into western Maryland and the Allegheny Highlands of eastern WV. Across these areas confidence is lower due to a higher criteria 3" for advisories and the fact that the gradient will be near these areas. Having that been said, an impact from accumulating snow is expected. In terms of timing, precip is expected to overspread the area from southwest to northeast, with snow starting across southwestern portions of the forecast area after 8 AM. In any given spot, the snow should only last 4-5 hours, but as was previously mentioned, could come down at a moderate to heavy clip during that time. Expect the snow to move into the metro areas for the mid-late afternoon hours. Temperatures may briefly climb into the upper 30s to near 40 before the precipitation starts, so can`t rule out it starting as a brief period of rain or mixed rain and snow. However, it should quickly change to all snow as the lower atmosphere wet bulbs back into the lower 30s. The only area where it may stay rain for most of the event will be across far southern MD. Snow will be moving out of the Washington and Baltimore areas during the evening commute, but temps may drop below freezing Tuesday night and with west/slushy roads in place there may be some icy conditions.

I bolded mine... one of those each week would be fine with me

What? Fairfax/PW/Baltimore/Montgomery are i95 corridor and in WWA

Updated AFD from LWX should be out shortly... should be a good read

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 934 PM EST Mon Jan 6 2020 VAZ050-071045- /O.EXA.KLWX.WW.Y.0002.200107T1300Z-200107T2100Z/ Orange- 934 PM EST Mon Jan 6 2020 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM TO 4 PM EST TUESDAY... * WHAT...Snow expected. Snow accumulation 1 to 3 inches. * WHERE...Orange County. * WHEN...From 8 AM to 4 PM EST Tuesday. The heaviest snow is expected between 1 PM and 4 PM Tuesday afternoon. * IMPACTS...Snow covered and slippery roads are possible, especially around midday Tuesday into the evening commute. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow rates could exceed one inch per hour with visibility around one-half mile at times.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 934 PM EST Mon Jan 6 2020 VAZ051-052-502-071045- /O.EXA.KLWX.WW.Y.0002.200107T1600Z-200107T2300Z/ Culpeper-Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park-Southern Fauquier- 934 PM EST Mon Jan 6 2020 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 6 PM EST TUESDAY... * WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations 1 to 3 inches. * WHERE...Culpeper, Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park and Southern Fauquier Counties. * WHEN...From 11 AM to 6 PM EST Tuesday. The heaviest snow is expected between 2 PM and 5 PM Tuesday afternoon. * IMPACTS...Snow covered and slippery roads are expected, especially northwest of interstate 95 Tuesday afternoon into the evening commute. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow rates around one inch per hour are possible with visibility around one-half mile at times.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 934 PM EST Mon Jan 6 2020 VAZ025-026-036>038-503-504-507-508-WVZ505-506-071045- /O.CON.KLWX.WW.Y.0002.200107T1300Z-200107T2100Z/ Augusta-Rockingham-Nelson-Albemarle-Greene-Western Highland- Eastern Highland-Northern Virginia Blue Ridge- Central Virginia Blue Ridge-Western Pendleton-Eastern Pendleton- 934 PM EST Mon Jan 6 2020 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM TO 4 PM EST TUESDAY... * WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 1 to 3 inches, with locally 3 to 5 inches across the higher elevations. * WHERE...The central Shenandoah Valley, Blue Ridge Mountains, Potomac Highlands of Virginia, and portions of central Virginia. * WHEN...From 8 AM to 4 PM EST Tuesday. The heaviest snow is expected between 11 AM and 2 PM late Tuesday morning into Tuesday afternoon. * IMPACTS...Snow covered and slippery roads are expected, especially around midday Tuesday. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow rates could exceed one inch per hour with visibility around one-quarter mile at times.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 934 PM EST Mon Jan 6 2020 VAZ027>031-039-040-501-505-WVZ050-052-053-055-071045- /O.CON.KLWX.WW.Y.0002.200107T1600Z-200107T2300Z/ Shenandoah-Frederick VA-Page-Warren-Clarke-Madison-Rappahannock- Northern Fauquier-Western Loudoun-Hampshire-Berkeley-Jefferson- Hardy- 934 PM EST Mon Jan 6 2020 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 6 PM EST TUESDAY... * WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations 1 to 3 inches. * WHERE...Portions of northern Virginia and eastern West Virginia. * WHEN...From 11 AM to 6 PM EST Tuesday. The heaviest snow is expected between 1 PM and 4 PM Tuesday afternoon. * IMPACTS...Snow covered and slippery roads are expected, especially Tuesday afternoon into the evening commute. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow rates around one inch per hour are possible with visibility around one-half mile at times.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 934 PM EST Mon Jan 6 2020 MDZ003>006-011-503>508-VAZ053-506-WVZ051-071045- /O.EXB.KLWX.WW.Y.0002.200107T1700Z-200108T0000Z/ Washington-Frederick MD-Carroll-Northern Baltimore- Southern Baltimore-Northwest Montgomery- Central and Southeast Montgomery-Northwest Howard- Central and Southeast Howard-Northwest Harford-Southeast Harford- Fairfax-Eastern Loudoun-Morgan- 934 PM EST Mon Jan 6 2020 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY... * WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 1 to 3 inches. * WHERE...northeastern and central Maryland as well as the Baltimore Metropolitan area. * WHEN...From noon to 7 PM EST Tuesday. The heaviest snow is expected between 3 PM and 6 PM Tuesday afternoon into early Tuesday evening. * IMPACTS...Snow covered and slippery roads are expected, especially northwest of Interstate 95 into the evening commute. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow rates could exceed one inch per hour with visibility around one-half mile at times.

WWA expanded eastward to I95 corridor... but doesn't include Charles/PG/AA/Spotsy/Stafford/DC metro

This is at 18z btw... so DC metro snow is just getting going at the time with that image