yoda

00z ICON also looks nice for them... though not as heavy as the 00z NAM is

Lol 00z NAM crushes NC

P14/16/18/19

lol at the 00z EURO at the end of its run tonight

But our awesome friend, the GL Low, is there Day 10

Excellent trade made by the Penguins tonight. Zucker will take the place of Guentzel in the lineup... eventually Doumilin and Kahun and Bjugstad will be back from injury. Let's see if the Caps make a move or sit tight

Lol Holtby now in... can he stop anything tonight?

Surprised Samsonov got beat 3 times in the 1st. Off night I guess for him... but 10 goals given up in last 4 periods is no bueno. Also surprised Ovie didnt get some home cooking with the goal that they gave to Carlson

Holtby

Nice try

Doesn't matter as no cold air around and its rain on the 00z UKIE

Finally being kicked out at 120 on 00z UKIE... 00z GFS kicked it out about a day earlier

00z UKIE is much slower ejecting the s/w out of the SW compared to the 00z GFS at hour 108

lol

Congrats N MD on the CMC

still all rain

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 1031 PM EST FRI FEB 7 2020 ...EF1 TORNADO CONFIRMED IN FREDERICK COUNTY MD FRIDAY MORNING FEB 7 2020... LOCATION...MONROVIA IN FREDERICK COUNTY MD DATE...FRI FEB 7, 2020 ESTIMATED TIME...7:44 AM TO 7:50 AM EST MAXIMUM EF-SCALE RATING...EF1 ESTIMATED MAXIMUM WIND SPEED...105 MPH MAXIMUM PATH WIDTH...150 YARDS PATH LENGTH...6.0 MILES BEGINNING LAT/LON...39.3427/-77.2758 ENDING LAT/LON...39.4155/-77.1917 * FATALITIES...0 * INJURIES...0 ...SUMMARY... STAFF FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE LOCATED IN STERLING, VA PERFORMED A SURVEY OF STORM DAMAGE THAT OCCURRED IN EASTERN FREDERICK COUNTY MD NEAR MONROVIA AND NEW MARKET. THIS SURVEY, COUPLED WITH RADAR ANALYSIS FROM THE KLWX WSR-88D RADAR AND AN FAA TERMINAL DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR (TIAD), CONCLUDED THAT A TORNADO RATED EF1 ON THE ENHANCED FUJITA SCALE IMPACTED PORTIONS OF EASTERN FREDERICK COUNTY MD. INITIAL DAMAGE WAS TO SEVERAL STRUCTURES AT A FARM IN THE 11000 BLOCK OF FINGERBOARD ROAD, WHERE A MACHINE SHED AND BARN WERE FLATTENED. A SILO WAS ALSO HEAVILY DAMAGED. TREE DAMAGE WAS NOTED NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF STATE ROUTES 75 AND 80. A LARGE SWATH OF TREE AND UTILITY LINE DAMAGE WAS NOTED ALONG LYNN BURKE RD NEAR OLD BARTHOLOWS RD JUST SOUTH OF I-70. THE TORNADO CROSSED I-70 AND MOVED ALONG JESSE SMITH RD WHERE MORE TREE DAMAGE (UPROOTED AND TOPPED) WAS OBSERVED. FURTHER NORTH ALONG THE 12900 BLOCK OF JESSE SMITH RD, MORE SIGNIFICANT TREE DAMAGE OCCURRED WITH NUMEROUS SOFTWOOD TREES TOPPED AT TWO RESIDENCES ALONG A CONCENTRATED DAMAGE PATH. THE TORNADO CONTINUED NORTHEAST OVER OPEN COUNTRY BEFORE CROSSING OLD ANNAPOLIS RD NEAR RAVENWOOD RD, PRODUCING EXTENSIVE TREE DAMAGE AT SEVERAL RESIDENCES. FINALLY, THE TORNADO CAUSED TREE DAMAGE AS IT CROSSED BOTTOM RD ALONG WOODVILLE BRANCH AND CONTINUED INTO A WOODED AREA THAT WAS NOT SURVEYED DUE TO IMPENDING DARKNESS. EF SCALE: THE ENHANCED FUJITA SCALE CLASSIFIES TORNADOES INTO THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES: EF0.........65 TO 85 MPH EF1.........86 TO 110 MPH EF2.........111 TO 135 MPH EF3.........136 TO 165 MPH EF4.........166 TO 200 MPH EF5.........>200 MPH * THE INFORMATION IN THIS STATEMENT IS PRELIMINARY AND SUBJECT TO CHANGE PENDING FINAL REVIEW OF THE EVENT AND PUBLICATION IN NWS STORM DATA. THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE THANKS FREDERICK COUNTY MD EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT FOR THEIR ASSISTANCE IN CONDUCTING THESE SURVEYS. $$ SMZ/KJP

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 929 PM EST FRI FEB 7 2020 ...2 TORNADOES CONFIRMED IN MONTGOMERY COUNTY MD FRIDAY MORNING FEB 7 2020... .EF1 TORNADO CONFIRMED NEAR DICKERSON MD... LOCATION...DICKERSON IN WESTERN MONTGOMERY COUNTY MD DATE...FRI FEB 7, 2020 ESTIMATED TIME...7:28 AM TO 7:29 AM EST MAXIMUM EF-SCALE RATING...EF1 ESTIMATED MAXIMUM WIND SPEED...95 MPH MAXIMUM PATH WIDTH...150 YARDS PATH LENGTH...1.0 MILE BEGINNING LAT/LON...39.1763/-77.4827 ENDING LAT/LON...39.1819/-77.4633 * FATALITIES...0 * INJURIES...0 ...SUMMARY... STAFF FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE LOCATED IN STERLING, VA PERFORMED A SURVEY OF STORM DAMAGE THAT OCCURRED IN WESTERN MONTGOMERY COUNTY MD NEAR DICKERSON. THIS SURVEY, COUPLED WITH RADAR ANALYSIS FROM THE KLWX WSR-88D RADAR AND AN FAA TERMINAL DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR (TIAD), CONCLUDED THAT A TORNADO RATED EF1 ON THE ENHANCED FUJITA SCALE IMPACTED PORTIONS OF EXTREME WESTERN MONTGOMERY COUNTY MD NEAR DICKERSON. INITIAL DAMAGE WAS NOTED IN TREES JUST WEST OF A FARM NEAR THE POTOMAC RIVER OFF MARTINSBURG ROAD. A LARGE BARN USED TO HOUSE HORSES LOST ALL OF ITS ROOF WHILE AN ADJACENT OPEN-AIR POLE BARN WAS FLATTENED. SEVERAL SMALL OUTBUILDINGS WERE DESTROYED. BLEACHERS AT A HORSE SHOWING FACILITY WERE OVERTURNED. A METAL FRAME WINDMILL TOWER WAS TOPPLED. NUMEROUS TREES, BOTH HARDWOOD AND SOFTWOOD, WERE EITHER UPROOTED OR SNAPPED. THEN THE TORNADO MOVED NORTHEAST ACROSS OPEN FIELDS. IT THEN CROSSED MARTINSBURG RD NEAR A FARMHOUSE WHERE SEVERAL LARGE TREES WERE UPROOTED AND A FARMHOUSE LOST MANY SHINGLES. NO DAMAGE WAS NOTED PAST THE FARM HOUSE. THIS TORNADO WAS NOT THE SAME ONE THAT STRUCK NEAR LEESBURG, VA EARLIER. RATHER IT WAS A SHORT-LIVED TORNADO THAT SPUN UP QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CIRCULATION THAT SPAWNED THE LEESBURG, VA EF0 TORNADO. ..EF0 TORNADO CONFIRMED NEAR BOYDS MD...... LOCATION...BOYDS IN MONTGOMERY COUNTY MD DATE...FRI FEB 7, 2020 ESTIMATED TIME...7:28 AM TO 7:29 AM EST MAXIMUM EF-SCALE RATING...EF0 ESTIMATED MAXIMUM WIND SPEED...80 MPH MAXIMUM PATH WIDTH...75 YARDS PATH LENGTH...2.3 MILES BEGINNING LAT/LON...39.1301/-77.3464 ENDING LAT/LON...39.1431/-77.3113 * FATALITIES...0 * INJURIES...0 ...SUMMARY... STAFF FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE LOCATED IN STERLING, VA PERFORMED A SURVEY OF STORM DAMAGE THAT OCCURRED IN WEST-CENTRAL MONTGOMERY COUNTY MD NEAR BOYDS. THIS SURVEY, COUPLED WITH RADAR ANALYSIS FROM THE KLWX WSR-88D RADAR AND AN FAA TERMINAL DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR (TIAD), CONCLUDED THAT A TORNADO RATED EF0 ON THE ENHANCED FUJITA SCALE IMPACTED PORTIONS OF WEST-CENTRAL MONTGOMERY COUNTY MD NEAR BOYDS AND DAWSONVILLE. INITIAL DAMAGE WAS NOTED ON DARNESTOWN ROAD (RT 28) BETWEEN WHITE GROUND RD AND SUGARLAND RD WHERE SEVERAL SOFTWOOD TREES WERE TOPPED AND FELL ACROSS UTILITY LINES ON DARNESTOWN RD. AFTER PASSING OVER LARGELY RURAL FIELDS AND WOODLANDS THE TORNADO DAMAGED SEVERAL STRUCTURES AT A DOG TRAINING FACILITY IN THE 14000 BLOCK OF SCHAEFFER ROAD. HERE AN OPEN FACING STORAGE OUTBUILDING WAS FLATTENED. ROOFING MATERIAL CARRIED FROM THE DESTROYED OUTBUILDING DAMAGED TWO OTHER OFFICE TRAILER STRUCTURES. A 10 FOOT 2X4 IMPALED THE SIDE OF ONE OF THE OFFICE TRAILERS WHILE ANOTHER 2X4 IMPALED THE ROOF OF THE SECOND OFFICE TRAILER. SOME TREE DAMAGE WAS NOTED JUST TO THE NORTHEAST OF THIS FACILITY BUT ALL DAMAGE ENDED SHORTLY THEREAFTER. EF SCALE: THE ENHANCED FUJITA SCALE CLASSIFIES TORNADOES INTO THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES: EF0.........65 TO 85 MPH EF1.........86 TO 110 MPH EF2.........111 TO 135 MPH EF3.........136 TO 165 MPH EF4.........166 TO 200 MPH EF5.........>200 MPH * THE INFORMATION IN THIS STATEMENT IS PRELIMINARY AND SUBJECT TO CHANGE PENDING FINAL REVIEW OF THE EVENTS AND PUBLICATION IN NWS STORM DATA. THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE THANKS MONTGOMERY COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT FOR THEIR ASSISTANCE IN CONDUCTING THESE SURVEYS. $$ SMZ/KJP

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 925 PM EST FRI FEB 7 2020 ...EF-1 TORNADO CONFIRMED IN CARROLL COUNTY MD ON FRIDAY MORNING FEB 7 2020... LOCATION...CARROLL COUNTY MD DATE...FRI FEB 7 2020 ESTIMATED TIME...8:03 AM EST TO 8:14 AM EST MAXIMUM EF-SCALE RATING...EF1 ESTIMATED MAXIMUM WIND SPEED...90 MPH MAXIMUM PATH WIDTH...100 YARDS PATH LENGTH...10.3 MILES INTERMITTENT BEGINNING LAT/LON...39.5620/-77.0310 ENDING LAT/LON...39.6610/-76.8860 * FATALITIES...0 * INJURIES...0 ...SUMMARY... EARLY ON FRIDAY FEB 7TH, A TORNADO TOUCHED DOWN AND SKIPPED NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL CARROLL COUNTY MD CAUSING ERRATIC DAMAGE. WHILE THERE WAS SCATTERED TREE DAMAGE ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN CARROLL COUNTY, THE FIRST NOTED DAMAGE CONSISTENT WITH A TORNADO WAS IN THE AVONDALE RIDGE COMMUNITY JUST WEST OF ROUTE 31 AND SOUTHWEST OF WESTMINSTER. CLUSTERS OF SNAPPED AND UPROOTED TREES WERE NOTED. FROM THERE THE TORNADO CAUSED INTERMITTENT DAMAGE AS IT TRAVELED NORTHEAST THROUGH DOWNTOWN WESTMINSTER, ROUGHLY PARALLELING RIDGE ROAD AND UNION STREET. TREES WERE UPROOTED AND SNAPPED, SOME ONTO CARS, ROADS, AND HOMES. ADDITIONALLY, ROOFING WAS BLOWN OFF, AND SHINGLE AND SIDING DAMAGE WAS NOTED FROM THE WIND. THE TORNADO CONTINUED UP HAHN RD AND INTO THE COMMUNITY ALONG SUNSHINE WAY, WHERE MORE SNAPPED AND UPROOTED TREES WERE NOTED, AS WELL AS RESIDENTIAL FENCING DAMAGE. A LARGE RECREATIONAL VEHICLE WAS BLOWN OVER. ON ADJACENT PROPERTY, THE NATIONAL GUARD RECRUITING OFFICE HAD TREE DAMAGE. ADDITIONALLY, A SMALL MILITARY TRAILER WAS BLOWN OVER. THE LAST KNOWN DAMAGE FROM THIS SEGMENT OF THE TORNADO WAS ALONG LUCABAUGH MILL RD, ABOUT 250 YARDS WEST OF ROUTE 27/MANCHESTER RD. MOST OF THE TREES ALONG THIS AREA WERE HEAVILY DAMAGED OR DOWNED. IN ADDITION TO GROUND SURVEYING, THERE WAS AN EYEWITNESS REPORT, AS WELL AS A VIDEO OF A SMALL TORNADO POSTED TO SOCIAL MEDIA, BOTH IN THE WESTMINSTER AREA. PEAK ESTIMATED WINDS WERE 90 MPH BASED ON THE MOST HEAVILY DAMAGED AREAS. THE TORNADO LIFTED NORTHEAST OF WESTMINSTER, AND NO DAMAGE WAS NOTED FOR ABOUT 4 MILES UNTIL IT NEARED MANCHESTER MD. SUBSTANTIAL TREE DAMAGE, WITH NUMEROUS LARGE TREES UPROOTED AND SNAPPED WERE NOTED ALONG FORT SCHOOLHOUSE RD, FROM ALBERT RILL ROAD, TO THE NORTHEAST ABOUT 400 YARDS. A HOME HAD A SECTION CRUSHED BY A LARGE FALLING TREE. AS THE TORNADO TRAVELED NORTHEAST ALONG PARK AVENUE, TREE DAMAGE BECAME MORE SCATTERED, AND NO TORNADIC DAMAGE WAS NOTED NORTHEAST OF MD ROUTE 30 IN MANCHESTER. THANKS TO CARROLL COUNTY MD OFFICE OF EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT FOR THEIR SUPPORT OF OUR STORM SURVEY. EF SCALE: THE ENHANCED FUJITA SCALE CLASSIFIES TORNADOES INTO THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES: EF0.........65 TO 85 MPH EF1.........86 TO 110 MPH EF2.........111 TO 135 MPH EF3.........136 TO 165 MPH EF4.........166 TO 200 MPH EF5.........>200 MPH * THE INFORMATION IN THIS STATEMENT IS PRELIMINARY AND SUBJECT TO CHANGE PENDING FINAL REVIEW OF THE EVENT AND PUBLICATION IN NWS STORM DATA. $$ STRONG/LEE

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 657 PM EST FRI FEB 7 2020 ...EF-0 TORNADO CONFIRMED IN LEESBURG VIRGINIA FRIDAY MORNING FEB 7 2020... LOCATION...TOWN OF LEESBURG IN LOUDOUN COUNTY VIRGINIA DATE...FRI FEB 7 2020 ESTIMATED TIME...7:20 AM EST TO 7:23 AM EST MAXIMUM EF-SCALE RATING...EF0 ESTIMATED MAXIMUM WIND SPEED...85 MPH MAXIMUM PATH WIDTH...250 YARDS PATH LENGTH...3.3 MILES BEGINNING LAT/LON...39.0946/-77.5874 ENDING LAT/LON...39.1291/-77.5431 * FATALITIES...0 * INJURIES...0 ...SUMMARY... STAFF FROM NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE LOCATED IN STERLING, VA PERFORMED A SURVEY OF STORM DAMAGE THAT OCCURRED IN THE TOWN OF LEESBURG, VA ON THE MORNING OF FEBRUARY 7, 2020. THIS SURVEY, COUPLED WITH RADAR ANALYSIS FROM THE KLWX WSR-88D AND THE FAA'S TIAD TERMINAL DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR, CONCLUDED THAT A TORNADO RATED EF0 ON THE ENHANCED FUJITA SCALE IMPACTED THE TOWN OF LEESBURG BETWEEN 7:20 AM EST AND 7:23 AM EST. THE TORNADO HAD A PATH LENGTH OF 3.3 MILES PRODUCING INTERMITTENT DAMAGE, WITH A PATH WIDTH OF UP TO 250 YARDS. THE TORNADO WAS MOVING NORTHEAST AT APPROXIMATELY 60 MPH. THE FIRST DAMAGE WAS REPORTED IN THE GREENWAY FARM AND LINDEN HILL SUBDIVISION IN SW LEESBURG. HERE NUMEROUS LARGE TREE LIMBS WERE DOWNED ALONG WITH SEVERAL TREES COMPLETELY UPROOTED. THE DAMAGE WAS DETERMINED TO BE CONCENTRATED BETWEEN LAWFORD DRIVE AND NICKELS DRIVE IN A WOODED AREA, AND ALSO ALONG GOVERNORS DRIVE AND COUNTRY CLUB DRIVE. TIAD RADAR WAS SHOWING A ROTATIONAL SIGNATURE BEGINNING AT 7:20 AM IN THESE LOCATIONS. WIND GUSTS IN THIS AREA WERE ESTIMATED TO BE 65 MPH FROM RADAR ANALYSIS AND DAMAGE INDICATORS. THE TORNADO THEN LIFTED OVER ROUTE 7, WITH JUST SOME MINOR TREE DAMAGE NOTED IN THE 800 BLOCK OF DAVIS COURT SE. THE HISTORIC DOWNTOWN PORTION OF THE TOWN OF LEESBURG, NEAR KING AND MARKET STREETS, WAS SPARED WITH JUST MINIMAL DAMAGE. THE ONLY NOTEWORTHY DAMAGE THAT WAS OBSERVED WAS TREE DAMAGE ALONG MONROE STREET. AS THE TORNADO MOVED INTO NE LEESBURG, BOTH THE RADAR AND THE STORM SURVEY INDICATED THAT IT BECAME MUCH STRONGER. TWO AREAS OF WIDESPREAD, CONCENTRATED TREE DAMAGE WERE FOUND. THE FIRST ONE WAS IN THE VICINITY OF LOUNSBERRY ROAD NE AND THE EXETER SUBDIVISION; WHICH ARE NORTH OF EDWARDS FERRY ROAD AND SOUTH OF BATTLEFIELD PARKWAY NE. A TOWNHOME ON GINGER SQUARE NE HAD ITS SIDING AND UNDERLAYMENT COMPLETELY PEELED OFF, EXPOSING IT'S ROOF TRUSSES. MANY HOMES ALONG MARSHALL DRIVE NE ALSO HAD ROOFING DAMAGE, ALONG WITH TREES UPROOTED AND LARGE BRANCHES DOWNED. ONE HOUSE HAD LAWN FURNITURE LIFTED AND BLOWN IN THE OPPOSITE DIRECTION OF THE WAY THE TREES WERE FALLEN AND DEBRIS WAS PLASTERED ON CARS AND HOMES. DAMAGE WAS NOTED SPANNING THE 500 AND 600 BLOCKS OF MARSHALL DRIVE NE, WHICH SUPPORTS THE DAMAGE WIDTH ESTIMATE OF 250 YARDS. THE OTHER AREA OF CONCENTRATED WIND DAMAGE WAS NORTH OF BATTLEFIELD PARKWAY NE, IN AND AROUND THE FIELDSTONE APARTMENT COMPLEX. HERE, FIFTEEN TO TWENTY 1.5-2.0 FOOT DIAMETER PINES WERE UPROOTED. OF SPECIAL NOTE WAS A LINE OF 5 LARGE PINE TREES IN THE EASTERNMOST PORTION OF THE APARTMENT COMPLEX WHICH WERE UPROOTED AND WHICH FELL ONTO TWO UNOCCUPIED VEHICLES. SEVERAL OF THESE TREES DID FALL IN A CONVERGENT PATTERN. ADDITIONAL LARGE PINE TREES WERE UPROOTED ALONG THE US ROUTE 15 LEESBURG BYPASS NEAR ITS INTERSECTION WITH BATTLEFIELD PARKWAY NE. ANALYSIS FROM TIAD RADAR SHOWED VELOCITY MEASUREMENTS UP TO 77 KNOTS AT APPROXIMATELY 210 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL AS THE TORNADO WAS IN THE VICINITY OF THE FIELDSTONE APARTMENTS. TAKING INTO ACCOUNT SOME DECREASE IN THE WIND'S MAGNITUDE AS IT GOT CLOSER TO GROUND LEVEL, ALONG WITH THE DAMAGE INDICATED IN AND AROUND THE FIELDSTONE APARTMENTS, CORROBORATES ESTIMATED WIND GUSTS OF UP TO 85 MPH. THE NWS BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE THANKS THE LOUDOUN COUNTY OFFICE OF EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT WITH PROVIDING INFORMATION SUPPORTING THE STORM SURVEY. EF SCALE: THE ENHANCED FUJITA SCALE CLASSIFIES TORNADOES INTO THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES: EF0.........65 TO 85 MPH EF1.........86 TO 110 MPH EF2.........111 TO 135 MPH EF3.........136 TO 165 MPH EF4.........166 TO 200 MPH EF5.........>200 MPH * THE INFORMATION IN THIS STATEMENT IS PRELIMINARY AND SUBJECT TO CHANGE PENDING FINAL REVIEW OF THE EVENT AND PUBLICATION IN NWS STORM DATA. $$ LEE

Looks like 2 EF0 and 3 EF1 tornadoes confirmed by LWX today... wow.

12z Euro at 144 has 997mb SLP in NW MS But that HP is too far west in Canada IMO

Lots of reports from LWX too... looks like at least 30