yoda

Tornado Warning Polk County in E TN

So ENH risk (because of wind)... I'll go big... as usual lol... 10% TOR hatched, 15% hail, 30 % wind hatched

Apparently Spann is shocked by the CC drop per Stormtrack Discord

Um, TDS showing up now... this isnt good

Severe Tstorm Watch coming for W TN -- https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0114.html URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 114 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 820 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2020 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Eastern Arkansas Northeast Louisiana Missouri Bootheel Northwest Mississippi Western Tennessee * Effective this Sunday night and Monday morning from 820 PM until 100 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...A fast-moving line of thunderstorms over Arkansas will track across the watch area this evening, posing a risk of damaging wind gusts and hail.

New Severe Thunderstorm Watch coming for E AR/SE MO/NE LA/NW MS/W TN until 1 AM CDT

DPs beginning to rise through the 50s across the region

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0370.html Mesoscale Discussion 0370 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0756 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2020 Areas affected...Much of Arkansas...western Tennessee...northwestern Mississippi...northern Louisiana...and northeastern Texas Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 111... Valid 130056Z - 130300Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 111 continues. SUMMARY...Damaging wind and hail will likely continue for the next couple hours across remaining portions of WW 111 and WW 108. A downstream WW will be considered pending convective trends. DISCUSSION...Storms with a history of damaging wind gusts continue with bowing segments/embedded rotation in an extensive linear segment moving through central/north-central Arkansas at this time. These storms should affect the Little Rock Metro area over the next half hour or so. These storms are moving quickly east-northeastward and should reach the eastern extent of WW 111 in Arkansas by around 0230Z or so. CAMs suggest that this activity will hold together beyond that time frame, with intensity in question as the downstream airmass has been overturned from prior convection. Nevertheless, forcing aloft with the vigorous upstream impulse may result in at least an isolated severe threat after 230Z in downstream areas. A new Watch may be needed and will be coordinated with downstream offices beforehand. Farther south, cells/clusters in northern Louisiana and northeast Texas have also produced wind damage and hail, and these trends should continue through the next couple hours as well. ..Cook.. 04/13/2020 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...JAN...LZK...SGF...SHV...

New Tornado watch coming downstream of the N GA one shortly -- https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0369.html Mesoscale Discussion 0369 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0741 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2020 Areas affected...northern GA...far southeast TN...and western portions of NC Concerning...Tornado Watch 112... Valid 130041Z - 130145Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 112 continues. SUMMARY...Damaging wind/tornado risk is expanding into the southwestern TN area and adjacent portions of the western Carolinas. A new tornado watch will be issued. DISCUSSION...A long-lived, well-organized cluster of storms that has maintained tornadic potential despite the marginal thermodynamic environment, continues moving northeastward across northwestern GA/WW 112. Given the organization of the storms, it appears that damaging wind/tornado risk will continue spreading into western portions of North Carolina and far southeastern Tennessee. A new, small tornado watch will be issued shortly, downstream from WW 112. ..Goss.. 04/13/2020 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...FFC...

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0368.html Mesoscale Discussion 0368 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0736 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2020 Areas affected...southeast Mississippi/central and southern Alabama Concerning...Tornado Watch 110... Valid 130036Z - 130200Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 110 continues. SUMMARY...Severe/tornado risk continues across WW 110. DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows a couple of rotating cells moving east-northeastward across the northwestern corner of the WW at this time -- i.e. Greene/Sumter County area in Alabama. The broader band of convection that includes these storms extends south-southwestward into eastern Louisiana, where a few well-organized storms are occurring. This convection will spread into western portions of WW 110 over the next hour -- sustained by an axis of 1500 to 2000 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE over the southwestern corner of Alabama. Given the background kinematic environment that remains strongly supportive of supercells, severe risk -- including potential for tornadoes -- continues. ..Goss.. 04/13/2020 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...MOB...JAN...LIX...

23z HRRR sounding at DCA at 16z MON

FWIW, 23z HRRR really pumps the SBCAPE in the late morning into early afternoon... 2000+ SBCAPE... you can start seeing the increased surface instability grow as soon as 14z in the SW portions of the LWX CWA

Including ATL metro it seems as well ETA: and there it is... that was fast

Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Jackson MS 603 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2020 MSC069-075-122345- /O.CON.KJAN.TO.W.0040.000000T0000Z-200412T2345Z/ Kemper MS-Lauderdale MS- 603 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2020 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 645 PM CDT FOR EASTERN KEMPER AND NORTHEASTERN LAUDERDALE COUNTIES... At 603 PM CDT, a confirmed tornado was located near Toomsuba, or near Lauderdale, moving northeast at 50 mph. HAZARD...Damaging tornado. SOURCE...Weather spotters confirmed tornado. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. This tornado will be near... Tamola around 615 PM CDT. Porterville around 620 PM CDT. Electric Mills around 630 PM CDT. Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include Scooba.

New Severe Thunderstorm Watch up for just about all of AR and N LA until 11 PM CDT

Hmmm... LWX keeps upgrading the Wind Advisory to HWW for more and more counties... first it was St. Marys and Calvert at 430ish... just now updated again and now includes PG/Charles/King George VA/AA counties ETA: This was reason why at 430 St. Mary's and Calvert were added to HWW per the AFD:

Mesoscale Discussion 0364 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0527 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2020 Areas affected...southeastern Louisiana and far southern Mississippi Concerning...Tornado Watch 107... Valid 122227Z - 122330Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 107 continues. SUMMARY...Cells developing near Ascension, Livingston, and Assumption Parishes are expected to become supercellular and potentially tornadic over time. DISCUSSION...Radar/satellite imagery indicates continued robust growth in convection across Ascension, Livingston, and Assumption Parishes in southeastern Louisiana. These storms have successfully breached the cap and are exhibiting cellular storm mode in an environment characterized by strong low-level shear (40 kt 0-1km), strong deep shear (60-65 kt 0-6km) and moderate to strong instability (2000+ MLCAPE) amidst 70-75F dewpoints and near 7 deg C lapse rates aloft. Given the environment, the storms are expected to acquire rotation and eventually pose a risk of all hazards, including strong tornadoes. ..Cook/Hart.. 04/12/2020 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...

sorry, what do you mean by "safe" spot?

New MCD is not good for SE LA into MS

TE warning in MS (Jasper/Smith/Covington counties) mentions that the tornado is moving NE at 50mph... geez

Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Jackson MS 517 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2020 MSC031-061-067-129-122300- /O.CON.KJAN.TO.W.0036.000000T0000Z-200412T2300Z/ Jasper MS-Smith MS-Covington MS-Jones MS- 517 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2020 ...TORNADO EMERGENCY FOR LOCATIONS IN THE WARNED AREA... ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM CDT FOR SOUTHWESTERN JASPER...SOUTHEASTERN SMITH...NORTHERN COVINGTON AND NORTHWESTERN JONES COUNTIES... At 516 PM CDT, a confirmed large and destructive tornado was located near Collins, moving northeast at 55 mph. TORNADO EMERGENCY for locations in the warned area. This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW! HAZARD...Deadly tornado. SOURCE...Weather spotters confirmed tornado. IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris may be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be destroyed. Considerable damage to homes, businesses, and vehicles is likely and complete destruction is possible. The tornado will be near... Taylorsville and Hebron around 530 PM CDT. Stringer, Vernon and Moss around 545 PM CDT. Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include Soso.

80/70 tor probs in the new TOR watch for AL/TN... pretty beefy probs there

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 109 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 320 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2020 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Northern and central Alabama Far southern Middle Tennessee * Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 320 PM until 1000 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Several tornadoes and a couple intense tornadoes likely Widespread damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 80 mph likely Isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Clusters of severe thunderstorms will spread east-northeast from Mississippi through this evening. Greatest tornado threat will exist across west-central to north-central portions of Alabama into early evening. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 85 statute miles north and south of a line from 45 miles northwest of Tuscaloosa AL to 30 miles east northeast of Gadsden AL. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline u