yoda

NAM'd

Anybody want some snow into i95 like the NAM shows? Anyone?

Rumors are that the AHL may cancel the rest of the season on Friday... they are having a conference call https://www.prohockeyrumors.com/2020/05/snapshots-penguins-toronto-ahl.html?fv-home=true&post-id=120053

Freeze Warning, in your future, see I do, yes yes

Weeee

What's that supposed to mean?

LWX AFD mentions frost/freeze headlines possible Friday night through Sunday night... as well as temperatures being 10 to 15 degrees below normal in the extended period

Slowly yes. But some in here want everything open now no matter what the cost

VA to start slowly reopening May 15 https://www.wusa9.com/mobile/article/news/health/coronavirus/virginia-on-track-to-begin-reopening-may-15-unless-something-drastically-changes-northam-says/65-44e341bd-f8c8-49b0-b988-4700f2a493cb

Lol pool season outcry

Perhaps... but MCD disco does say risk of strong tornado in it for SW MO Mesoscale Discussion 0531 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0121 PM CDT Mon May 04 2020 Areas affected...Northeast Oklahoma...southeast Kansas...southwest Missouri...northwest Arkansas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 041821Z - 042015Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Initially cellular thunderstorm development along a pre-frontal wind shift is likely within 2-3 hours. These storms will quickly become severe and be capable of all severe hazards. A strong tornado will be possible near the KS/MO/OK/AR border region where low-level hodographs are more favorable. A tornado watch will be needed within the next couples of hours. DISCUSSION...Ahead of a southward moving cold front, cumulus clouds have begun to become increasingly agitated within a zone of upper 60s F dewpoints in the northeast Oklahoma vicinity. Current observations indicate that the likely zone of initiation will be along the pre-frontal wind shift. With 1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE and 45-60 kts of effective shear, the initial storms that develop are likely to be supercells capable of large/very large hail, strong/severe wind gusts, and a few tornadoes. An area of enhanced low-level veering, observed in KSGF/KINX VAD data, is present along and near the warm front placed near the OK/AR/MO/KS border region. A strong tornado or two will be possible in this region. One uncertainty is how quickly the cold front will undercut initially cellular activity as it has reached the south-central KS/north-central OK border. With surface observations showing a deepening surface cyclone in central OK, it is possible that the eastern portions of this front in southeastern KS will slow its progression and allow for a longer window of opportunity for tornadic activity. With storm initiation likely within the next 2-3 hours, a WW will be needed within the next couple of hours. ..Wendt/Hart.. 05/04/2020 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...ICT...

SPC MCD seemed to be suggesting the opposite... saying TOR watch will be needed soon for the areas you are discussing - https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0531.html

LOL - laughing at the false statement here

LWX afternoon AFD seems to be suggesting that the front didnt get as far south as they thought it would... so places up by DC may be in the game this evening for a severe storm

There are snow showers in the forecast for Western Grant/Western Mineral/Western Highland/Western Pendleton counties for next Friday night. In the zones. Yes, seriously.

00z NAM and 3km NAM sim radar look interesting around 03z/04z MON... I guess some sort of an MCS? Both 00z WRF-ARW and 00z WRF-ARW2 keep majority of storms down by EZF 00z WRF-NMM looks more like the NAM twins but is an hour or 2 faster 00z HRDRPS looks fun DC south

18z NAM soundings at KIAD for 00z MON and 03z MON looked pretty good to me... decent SBCAPE and shear... would suggest that the WF or west to east front is somewhere in C MD Sim radar didnt look too bad on either of the 18z NAMs or RGEM... 18z long range HRRR did suggest though that the front is in N VA as it has best storms just south of me toward EZF

00z 12km NAM looks decent... has what looks to be a complex of storms (MCS?) Roll through the DC metro region around 03z MON 00z 3km NAM NEST looks intriguing from 00z to 04z MON... looks like a sup comes rumbling down i66 corridor from 02z to 04z

Dont forget that the Blue Angels and Thunderbirds are flying over the Baltimore and DC metro region tomorrow between 1130 am and 1215pm to honor first responders and essential workers... flyover flight plans are in the link below https://wtop.com/local/2020/05/blue-angels-and-thunderbirds-to-soar-above-dc-baltimore-in-tribute-to-essential-workers/

Ah, ping pong ball hail to maybe golf ball then... guess our ML Lapse rates are good enough?

I think it will depend on where the front (warm front?) sets up shop... could maybe be an isolated tornado if it rides the west to east front? And big hailers are what to you? The usual quarter to half dollar size around here or bigger?

12z EPS mean... looks like it could get frosty some nights if right

12z Euro 850 temp anomalies are 5 to 15 degrees below normal Days 8 to 10... nice 12z EPS mean even colder... -10 to -15 850 temp anomalies day 6 to day 10

Wish I could see it... socked in with clouds

Too bad this isn't January afternoon AFD from LWX