https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0758.html
Mesoscale Discussion 0758
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1127 AM CDT Fri May 29 2020
Areas affected...Northern Mid Atlantic Coast region
Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely
Valid 291627Z - 291730Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms may develop across the Poconos and Catskills
vicinity as early as the next hour or or so, with a more general
increase and intensification of thunderstorm during the 3-5 PM EDT
time frame. With strongest storms expected to pose at least a risk
for severe wind and hail, one or more severe weather watches seems
probable.
DISCUSSION...Insolation within a seasonably moist boundary layer
(surface dew points around/above 70F) is contributing to moderately
large CAPE on the order of 1000-2000+ J/kg, within deepening surface
troughing to the lee of the Appalachians. Mid-level flow remains
broadly anticyclonic, however deepening convective development is
underway aided by orography, particularly across the Poconos into
Catskills vicinity.
As a short wave trough accelerates northeast of the middle Ohio
Valley/central Appalachians region, mid-level flow appears likely to
trend increasingly cyclonic across northern Virginia through eastern
New York state. This should contribute to an environment
increasingly conducive to thunderstorm initiation and
intensification. A coinciding strengthening of southwesterly
mid-level flow (30-50 kt around 500 mb), will provide sufficient
shear for organizing lines and clusters of storms, with isolated
discrete supercells also possible. At least some of this activity
will pose a risk for large hail, potentially damaging wind gusts,
and perhaps a tornado or two.
..Kerr/Grams.. 05/29/2020
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...AKQ...CTP...LWX..