LWX in their updated morning AFD disagrees (10am update)
SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Brief high pressure builds in early Friday behind the exiting
clipper before a second clipper system approaches and passes to
the south and brings snow to the region.
Most of the guidance has the surface low tracking near the I-64
corridor toward the lower Chesapeake Bay, though there is still
some ensemble members that take a more northern track. The
latest 06Z guidance, and the early 12Z guidance is indicating an
uptick of QPF, particularly from Pendleton/Highland east toward
the Blue Ridge. Even though surface temps will be marginal,
around 29F-32F during the peak of the event, snow rates will be
high and there is a good signal for banding somewhere in the
area. As a result, have increased snow totals this morning to
4-6" in the Alleghenies, 3-5" in the Shenandoah Valley from
Rockingham County northward, 2-4" north of I-66 and east of
Blue Ridge, and 1-2"south of I-66 and east of Blue Ridge.
Winter Storm Watches have been issued for the Alleghenies and
portions of the Potomac Highlands. Additional Watches, Warnings,
and Advisories are likely to be issued later this afternoon.
Stay tuned for additional updates on snow totals as the latest
guidance comes in.