yoda

Never playoff hockey without a Crosby goal

Confirmed TOG

BULLETIN Tropical Depression Ten Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102020 800 AM CVT Sat Aug 01 2020 ...DEPRESSION FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 800 AM CVT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.8N 21.6W ABOUT 200 MI...325 KM NE OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM CVT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Ten was located near latitude 17.8 North, longitude 21.6 West. The depression is moving toward the northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h). A turn toward the west-northwest or west is expected by Saturday afternoon. On the forecast track, the center of the depression is expected to move north of the Cabo Verde Islands later today. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. The depression is forecast to weaken and become a remnant low later today. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).

And... bye Tropical Depression Ten Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102020 800 AM CVT Sat Aug 01 2020 Satellite images indicate that only a small area of deep convection remains with the depression, and the center is partially exposed on the southeastern edge of the thunderstorms. The initial wind speed is kept 30 kt based on persistence. It seems like the chance for the depression to become a tropical storm has passed with it now moving over cooler waters into a drier air mass. Thus weakening is forecast, and the system will likely degenerate into a remnant low later today. The depression continues moving northwestward, and that course should persist today before turning towards the west-northwest around a larger cyclonic gyre on Sunday. A slight northward adjustment has been made to the forecast, a bit south of the GFS model. All of the model guidance dissipate the small low within 36 hours, so this is indicated in the new forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/0900Z 17.8N 21.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 01/1800Z 19.2N 23.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 02/0600Z 20.5N 26.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 02/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake

Since Day 2 (Sunday) looks meh... here's Day 3 (Monday)

FWIW, MRGL risk for Sunday and Monday as well from SPC

Seems Josephine may not be far behind actually even if TD 10 dissipates tomorrow Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Sat Aug 1 2020 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Isaias, located near the central Bahamas, and on Tropical Depression Ten, located over the far eastern Atlantic between Africa and the Cabo Verde Islands. 1. A westward-moving tropical wave located about 650 miles east of the Lesser Antilles continues to produce a few disorganized showers. Environmental conditions are forecast to become more conducive for development in a day or two, and a tropical depression could form early next week. This system is forecast to turn northwestward, and then northward over the western Atlantic north of the Leeward Islands through the middle of next week. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent. Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Ten are issued under WMO header WTNT35 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT5. Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Ten are issued under WMO header WTNT25 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT5. Forecaster Blake

new day 1 graphic with disco... 2/5/15

Sounds like no to being named Tropical Depression Ten Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102020 200 AM CVT Sat Aug 01 2020 The small depression maintained a large burst of convection in its northwest quadrant for several hours after the last advisory, though cloud tops have warmed steadily since around 00Z. An ASCAT-B pass near 2300 UTC showed max winds near 35 kt, but these winds coincided with the coldest cloud tops in Meteosat imagery at that time, indicating they may have been rain inflated. Data from ASCAT-C valid about 40 minutes earlier only showed peak winds closer to 30 kt, also near the deepest convection. The highest wind retrievals in the east half of the circulation, where you would often expect the highest winds for a system moving north or northwest, were between 25 and 30 kt in both passes. Subjective Dvorak intensity estimates were 30 kt and 25 kt from TAFB and SAB, respectively, at 00Z. It is possible that the cyclone briefly had tropical-storm-strength winds at one point, but given the observed warming of cloud tops since 00Z, the intensity is maintained at 30 kt for this advisory. There is no real change to the forecast reasoning. The depression is moving northwestward and a turn toward the west-northwest is expected later today as it moves around a larger cyclonic gyre. Conditions do not appear to be favorable for any strengthening, and the dynamical models indicate that deep convection will dissipate later today due to cool underlying SSTs and a drier surrounding environment. The NHC track and intensity forecast is based on the TVCA and IVCN consensus aids and has not been changed significantly from the previous advisory. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/0300Z 17.1N 21.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 01/1200Z 18.4N 22.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 02/0000Z 19.3N 25.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 02/1200Z 20.0N 28.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 03/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky

Josephine

And will be gone by tomorrow night lol

@weatherwiz does not like MRGL risk

Everyone should read this and take the survey... important to do so IMO https://www.weather.gov/hazardsimplification/

@Chris78 @nj2va @nw baltimore wx https://www.prohockeyrumors.com/2020/07/ilya-samsonov-out-for-the-postseason.html?fv-home=true&post-id=121791 Samsonov done for the year... Holtby now up lol... Copley as backup?

Imagine, for example, 5 hurricanes develop off the CV islands... if they all travel over the same path over and over, the water heat content won't be as high as if they all went over water that had not yet been disturbed by prior tropical systems. Perhaps I am overthinking... but I think that's what would happen

True... maybe we get saved by some overturning/upwelling though if hurricanes keep going over the same paths of water

Another outflow boundary moving SW through DC... evident on radarscope and LWX radar

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 655 PM EDT FRI JUL 24 2020 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0646 PM FLASH FLOOD 1 NNW HIGHLANDTOWN 39.30N 76.55W 07/24/2020 BALTIMORE CITY MD TRAINED SPOTTER MULTIPLE VEHICLES TRAPPED IN WATER TWO-THIRDS OF THE WAY UP TO THE ROOF NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF US-40 PULASKI HIGHWAY AND EAST MONUMENT STREET. && EVENT NUMBER LWX2001693 PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 733 PM EDT FRI JUL 24 2020 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0733 PM FLASH FLOOD 3 W BALTIMORE 39.30N 76.67W 07/24/2020 BALTIMORE CITY MD FIRE DEPT/RESCUE MANY ROADS FLOODED IN THE WESTERN PART OF BALTIMORE CITY. VEHICLE TRAPPED IN HIGH WATER ON HILTON PARKWAY. && EVENT NUMBER LWX2001695

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 705 PM EDT FRI JUL 24 2020 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0700 PM FLASH FLOOD 1 NE HIGHLANDTOWN 39.30N 76.53W 07/24/2020 BALTIMORE CITY MD FIRE DEPT/RESCUE FOUR ONGOING WATER RESCUES AND AT LEAST ONE PERSON TRAPPED IN HIGH WATER IN THE VICINITY OF KANE STREET. && EVENT NUMBER LWX2001694

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 754 PM EDT FRI JUL 24 2020 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0700 PM FLASH FLOOD FELLS POINT 39.26N 76.56W 07/24/2020 BALTIMORE CITY MD FIRE DEPT/RESCUE THREE WATER RESUCES IN THE FELLS POINT AREA. && EVENT NUMBER LWX2001697

Flash Flood Statement National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 709 PM EDT Fri Jul 24 2020 MDC005-510-250230- /O.CON.KLWX.FF.W.0023.000000T0000Z-200725T0230Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Baltimore City MD-Baltimore MD- 709 PM EDT Fri Jul 24 2020 ...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1030 PM EDT FOR SOUTH CENTRAL BALTIMORE COUNTY AND NORTHEASTERN BALTIMORE CITY... At 706 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing heavy rain across the area. Two to three inches of rain have fallen. Additional rainfall amounts of one to two inches are possible in the warned area. City emergency management reports multiple swift water rescues on Kain Street as well as Pulaski Highway. Flash flooding is ongoing at this time. HAZARD...Life threatening flash flooding. Heavy rain producing flash flooding. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Life threatening flash flooding of creeks and streams, urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses. Some locations that may experience flooding include... Baltimore... Dundalk... Essex... Rosedale... Rossville... Eastpoint...

Hurricane watches issued for some of the Hawaiian islands BULLETIN Hurricane Douglas Intermediate Advisory Number 18A NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP082020 200 PM HST Fri Jul 24 2020 ...MAJOR HURRICANE DOUGLAS CONTINUES TO TRACK TOWARD THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 200 PM HST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.4N 144.3W ABOUT 725 MI...1165 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII ABOUT 930 MI...1495 KM ESE OF HONOLULU HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...29 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...967 MB...28.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNING IN EFFECT... A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Hawaii County * Maui County, including Maui, Lanai, Molokai and Kahoolawe A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 36 to 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in the Hawaiian Islands should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by the National Weather Service office in Honolulu Hawaii.

Multiple swift water rescues ongoing

So is @weatherwiz okay from his melt yesterday?

Stuck at work till this calms down some... torrential rain and lightning