yoda

Map version

Excessive Rainfall Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 429 AM EDT Wed Aug 12 2020 Day 1 Valid 01Z Wed Aug 12 2020 - 12Z Wed Aug 12 2020 ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER THE HEART OF THE MID ATLANTIC URBAN CORRIDOR... ...Eastern U.S... There is a marked potential for scattered intense rainfall today, which first appears as a local maximum in the hi-res model consensus, but when one zooms in it comes more fully into focus. It is difficult to outline a Moderate Risk area for flash flooding associated with loosely organized summertime convection within weak low level inflow winds. Today, however, we have the heaviest model signal located across an area that is both urban and already saturated, and the environmental signal for heavy local rainfall rates is pretty exceptional. The 00Z KIAD sounding at Dulles Airport was particularly telling, with steep lapse rates and little inhibition, coupled with nearly a 2.00 inch precipitable water value. An upper trough is merely brushing across the top of this region, and into northern New England, and while this will provide only minimal lift, it will drop a cold front into position across southern Pennsylvania to near NYC by midday, helping to focus the pool of moisture and instability over the Mid-Atlantic states. Models forecast a swath of MUCAPE 2000 J/kg or more in the Moderate Risk area. Consumption of this instability pool may be chaotic, owing to storm initiation along sea breezes, mountain ridges, and outflows. But the net effect is usually for fairly broad scale overturning, resulting in scattered very heavy rain. In recent events the HREF has been good at placing the general axis of heaviest rainfall, and today that axis is essentially right along I-95 from Philadelphia to Washington D.C., and also cutting across the wet soil footprint left behind by a soggy 2-week period. We expect to see 2.0 inch PW in the pre convective environment, and note that the NAM Nest produces spotty 3-inch per hour rain rates today. That model frequently produces 2.0 to 2.50 inch rain rates, but rates of 3 are fairly rare in the model. This seems entirely plausible given the moisture, instability, and mean 0-6 km winds of only zero to five knots. Although there is not enough shear for well organized storms or training, the individual cells should be very robust and efficient, as well as nearly stationary. The flash flood threat may only last for about 4 hours, give or take, along the urban corridor, beginning around 17Z, but within that short period there may be some significant flash flooding.

Yikes PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 556 AM EDT WED AUG 12 2020 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0554 AM FLASH FLOOD 1 WNW MANASSAS PARK 38.78N 77.47W 08/12/2020 CITY OF MANASSAS VA 911 CALL CENTER ROAD CLOSED DUE TO A SINKHOLE AT THE INTERSECTION OF MOSEBY CT. AND MOSEBY DR.

LWX seems the total opposite in their morning AFD if I am reading what you posted right

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Flash Flood Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 407 AM EDT Wed Aug 12 2020 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Flash Flood Warning for... West central Fairfax County in northern Virginia... The City of Manassas Park in northern Virginia... Central Prince William County in northern Virginia... The City of Manassas in northern Virginia... * Until 800 AM EDT. * At 406 AM EDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing heavy rain across the area. Up to three inches of rain have already fallen. Rain of one to two inches is expected in the next hour. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly. HAZARD...Life threatening flash flooding. Heavy rain producing flash flooding. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Life threatening flash flooding of creeks and streams, urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses. * Some locations that may experience flooding include... Centreville... Linton Hall... Bull Run... Manassas... Sudley... Manassas Park...

What model shows 60s for highs?

Yup already BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Flood Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 355 AM EDT Wed Aug 12 2020 VAC059-153-683-685-121400- /O.NEW.KLWX.FA.W.0110.200812T0755Z-200812T1400Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Fairfax VA-City of Manassas Park VA-Prince William VA- City of Manassas VA- 355 AM EDT Wed Aug 12 2020 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Flood Warning for... West central Fairfax County in northern Virginia... The City of Manassas Park in northern Virginia... Central Prince William County in northern Virginia... The City of Manassas in northern Virginia... * Until 1000 AM EDT Wednesday. * At 354 AM EDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing heavy rain which will cause flooding. Up to two inches of rain have already fallen. Additional rainfall amounts of up to an inch are possible. * Some locations that will experience flooding include... Bull Run, Manassas, Sudley and Manassas Park. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Turn around, don`t drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles. Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the dangers of flooding. Excessive runoff from heavy rainfall will cause flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses as well as other drainage areas and low lying spots.

Looks like the line is slowly forming and moving slowly east too... could be one of those long term storms that last a while

Woke me up here in West Springfield as I was falling asleep

I concur... I'm just saying so far there really hasn't been anything of major consequence from this hurricane season besides Isaiah.

But no major hurricanes and 4 of those storms were crappy TS's that didn't do much at all. Only 2 hurricanes and both were "hits"... but Isaiah was really the first to do something this season IMO Josephine won't amount to much either... she will likely be gone in 4-5 days

Flash Flood Watch posted for tomorrow for most in the region except NW VA/E WV and W MD from Hagerstown westward... 1-2 inches with potential for 4 inches in isolated areas... Flood Watch National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 319 PM EDT Tue Aug 11 2020 DCZ001-MDZ004>006-011-013-014-016>018-503>508-VAZ025-026-029- 036>040-050>057-501-502-505>508-120400- /O.NEW.KLWX.FF.A.0020.200812T1600Z-200813T0300Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ District of Columbia-Frederick MD-Carroll-Northern Baltimore- Southern Baltimore-Prince Georges-Anne Arundel-Charles-St. Marys- Calvert-Northwest Montgomery-Central and Southeast Montgomery- Northwest Howard-Central and Southeast Howard-Northwest Harford- Southeast Harford-Augusta-Rockingham-Page-Nelson-Albemarle-Greene- Madison-Rappahannock-Orange-Culpeper- Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park-Fairfax- Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria-Stafford-Spotsylvania- King George-Northern Fauquier-Southern Fauquier-Western Loudoun- Eastern Loudoun-Northern Virginia Blue Ridge- Central Virginia Blue Ridge- Including the cities of Washington, Frederick, Ballenger Creek, Eldersburg, Westminster, Reisterstown, Cockeysville, Baltimore, Bowie, Suitland-Silver Hill, Clinton, College Park, Greenbelt, Laurel, Camp Springs, Glen Burnie, Annapolis, Severn, South Gate, Severna Park, Arnold, Odenton, St. Charles, Waldorf, Lexington Park, California, Chesapeake Beach, Huntingtown, Dunkirk, North Beach, Lusby, Prince Frederick, Germantown, Damascus, Bethesda, Rockville, Gaithersburg, Silver Spring, Lisbon, Columbia, Ellicott City, Jarrettsville, Aberdeen, Staunton, Waynesboro, Stuarts Draft, Harrisonburg, Luray, Shenandoah, Stanley, Lovingston, Charlottesville, Stanardsville, Madison, Orange, Gordonsville, Culpeper, Dale City, Manassas, Woodbridge, Lake Ridge, Montclair, Reston, Herndon, Annandale, Centreville, Chantilly, McLean, Franconia, Arlington, Alexandria, Falls Church, Falmouth, Fredericksburg, Dahlgren, Warrenton, Turnbull, Purcellville, Leesburg, Ashburn, Sterling, Big Meadows, and Wintergreen 319 PM EDT Tue Aug 11 2020 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING... The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Flash Flood Watch for portions of Maryland, The District of Columbia, and Virginia, including the following areas, in Maryland, Anne Arundel, Calvert, Carroll, Central and Southeast Howard, Central and Southeast Montgomery, Charles, Frederick, Northern Baltimore, Northwest Harford, Northwest Howard, Northwest Montgomery, Prince Georges, Southeast Harford, Southern Baltimore, and St. Marys. The District of Columbia. In Virginia, Albemarle, Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria, Augusta, Central Virginia Blue Ridge, Culpeper, Eastern Loudoun, Fairfax, Greene, King George, Madison, Nelson, Northern Fauquier, Northern Virginia Blue Ridge, Orange, Page, Prince William, Rappahannock, Rockingham, Southern Fauquier, Spotsylvania, Stafford, and Western Loudoun. * From Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday evening * A cold front will move into the area Wednesday and then stall out. Numerous slow moving showers and thunderstorms will pose a risk of flash flooding. Thunderstorms could produce one to two inches of rain with isolated amounts up to four inches possible. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a very dangerous situation. You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

Sounds like Josephine is in the way... but I'm guessing it won't last long

Looks like next chance for severe might by the Sunday-Monday time frame... LWX mentions potential briefly in their long term disco this evening

There was a confirmed TOG near Lisbon per radar in updated SWS from KLOT

Euro SEAS-5 h5 height anamoly forecast for January was vomit-worthy. It was the ensemble mean for January as well. You guys might be able to sneak something... but down south... ugly ETA: From August 1st though

Here we go again lol Flood Watch National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 346 AM EDT Fri Aug 7 2020 DCZ001-MDZ004>006-011-013-014-016>018-503>508-VAZ025-026-029- 036>040-050>057-501-502-505>508-072215- /O.NEW.KLWX.FF.A.0019.200807T1600Z-200808T0600Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ District of Columbia-Frederick MD-Carroll-Northern Baltimore- Southern Baltimore-Prince Georges-Anne Arundel-Charles-St. Marys- Calvert-Northwest Montgomery-Central and Southeast Montgomery- Northwest Howard-Central and Southeast Howard-Northwest Harford- Southeast Harford-Augusta-Rockingham-Page-Nelson-Albemarle-Greene- Madison-Rappahannock-Orange-Culpeper- Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park-Fairfax- Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria-Stafford-Spotsylvania- King George-Northern Fauquier-Southern Fauquier-Western Loudoun- Eastern Loudoun-Northern Virginia Blue Ridge- Central Virginia Blue Ridge- Including the cities of Washington, Frederick, Ballenger Creek, Eldersburg, Westminster, Reisterstown, Cockeysville, Baltimore, Bowie, Suitland-Silver Hill, Clinton, College Park, Greenbelt, Laurel, Camp Springs, Glen Burnie, Annapolis, Severn, South Gate, Severna Park, Arnold, Odenton, St. Charles, Waldorf, Lexington Park, California, Chesapeake Beach, Huntingtown, Dunkirk, North Beach, Lusby, Prince Frederick, Germantown, Damascus, Bethesda, Rockville, Gaithersburg, Silver Spring, Lisbon, Columbia, Ellicott City, Jarrettsville, Aberdeen, Staunton, Waynesboro, Stuarts Draft, Harrisonburg, Luray, Shenandoah, Stanley, Lovingston, Charlottesville, Stanardsville, Madison, Orange, Gordonsville, Culpeper, Dale City, Manassas, Woodbridge, Lake Ridge, Montclair, Reston, Herndon, Annandale, Centreville, Chantilly, McLean, Franconia, Arlington, Alexandria, Falls Church, Falmouth, Fredericksburg, Dahlgren, Warrenton, Turnbull, Purcellville, Leesburg, Ashburn, Sterling, Big Meadows, and Wintergreen 346 AM EDT Fri Aug 7 2020 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT... The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Flash Flood Watch for portions of Maryland, The District of Columbia, and Virginia, including the following areas, in Maryland, Anne Arundel, Calvert, Carroll, Central and Southeast Howard, Central and Southeast Montgomery, Charles, Frederick, Northern Baltimore, Northwest Harford, Northwest Howard, Northwest Montgomery, Prince Georges, Southeast Harford, Southern Baltimore, and St. Marys. The District of Columbia. In Virginia, Albemarle, Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria, Augusta, Central Virginia Blue Ridge, Culpeper, Eastern Loudoun, Fairfax, Greene, King George, Madison, Nelson, Northern Fauquier, Northern Virginia Blue Ridge, Orange, Page, Prince William, Rappahannock, Rockingham, Southern Fauquier, Spotsylvania, Stafford, and Western Loudoun. * From noon EDT today through late tonight * Scattered slow moving showers and thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and tonight which may pose a risk of flash flooding.

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 455 PM EDT Thu Aug 6 2020 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Southwestern Madison County in northwestern Virginia... The City of Charlottesville in central Virginia... Southwestern Orange County in central Virginia... Northeastern Albemarle County in central Virginia... Southeastern Greene County in central Virginia... * Until 600 PM EDT. * At 454 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Free Union, or 9 miles northwest of Charlottesville, moving northeast at 10 mph. This is a very dangerous storm. HAZARD...80 mph wind gusts and golf ball size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Expect considerable damage to trees and power lines, especially near Free Union and Earlysville. Your life is at significant risk if outdoors. In addition to some trees falling into homes, wind damage is possible to roofs, sheds, open garages, and mobile homes. * Locations impacted include... Charlottesville, Stanardsville, Free Union, Campbell, Westmoreland, Hollymead, Ruckersville, Ivy, Quinque, Eheart, Barboursville, Stony Point, Flordon, Newtown, Amicus, Cobham, Cismont, Newcomb Hall, Keswick and Carrsbrook. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Remain alert for a possible tornado! Tornadoes can develop quickly from severe thunderstorms. If you spot a tornado go at once into the basement or small central room in a sturdy structure. Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

CHO under the gun Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 502 PM EDT Thu Aug 6 2020 VAC003-540-062130- /O.CON.KLWX.TO.W.0019.000000T0000Z-200806T2130Z/ City of Charlottesville VA-Albemarle VA- 502 PM EDT Thu Aug 6 2020 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 530 PM EDT FOR NORTHEASTERN ALBEMARLE COUNTY AND THE CITY OF CHARLOTTESVILLE... At 502 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located over Charlottesville, moving east at 20 mph. HAZARD...Tornado. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...For those in the direct path of a tornado touchdown, flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Damage to roofs, siding, and windows may occur. Mobile homes may be damaged or destroyed. Tree damage is likely. This tornadic thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of northeastern Albemarle County and the City of Charlottesville, including the following locations... Scott Stadium, Westmoreland, Newcomb Hall and Carrsbrook. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris.

I see Wilson is back to his boarding days

Torrential downpours here

Looks like some rotation in the storm down in Augusta County per radarscope near the city of Grottoes ETA: Updated SWS mentions possible tornado in text

Pretty quiet right now in the LWX CWA

Good morning from Mother Nature BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 433 AM EDT Thu Aug 6 2020 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Northern Anne Arundel County in central Maryland... * Until 515 AM EDT. * At 432 AM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Odenton, or near Crofton, moving east at 25 mph. HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by downed trees. Localized power outages are possible. Unsecured light objects may become projectiles. * Locations impacted include... Severn, Crofton, Riviera Beach, Magothy River, Dobbins Island, Fort Smallwood State Park, Pinehurst, Gibson Island, Bodkin Point, Sillery Bay, Glen Burnie, Severna Park, Odenton, Pasadena, Arnold, Lake Shore, Parole, Fort Meade, Millersville and Green Haven. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. Large hail and damaging winds and continuous cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm. Move indoors immediately. Lightning is one of nature`s leading killers. Remember, if you can hear thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

looks like moving ENE... but that's about an hour away lol