yoda

00z UKIE FWIW

Pivotal 10:1 says Wes wins

We definitely love the GFS tonight

The new thread will be the obs thread

Great, now all I can think is Pirates of the Carribean... Hoist the colours!

I do like the bolded though Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 907 PM EST Thu Feb 15 2024 DCZ001-MDZ003>006-008-011-013-014-016>018-502>508-VAZ025>031- 036>040-050-051-053>057-501-502-505-506-508-526-527-WVZ051>053- 161100- District of Columbia-Washington-Frederick MD-Carroll- Northern Baltimore-Cecil-Southern Baltimore-Prince Georges- Anne Arundel-Charles-St. Marys-Calvert- Central and Eastern Allegany-Northwest Montgomery- Central and Southeast Montgomery-Northwest Howard- Central and Southeast Howard-Northwest Harford-Southeast Harford- Augusta-Rockingham-Shenandoah-Frederick VA-Page-Warren-Clarke- Nelson-Albemarle-Greene-Madison-Rappahannock-Orange-Culpeper- Fairfax-Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria-Stafford-Spotsylvania- King George-Northern Fauquier-Southern Fauquier-Western Loudoun- Eastern Loudoun-Central Virginia Blue Ridge- Northwest Prince William- Central and Southeast Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park- Morgan-Berkeley-Jefferson- Including the cities of Washington, Hagerstown, Frederick, Ballenger Creek, Eldersburg, Westminster, Reisterstown, Cockeysville, Elkton, Baltimore, Bowie, Suitland-Silver Hill, Clinton, College Park, Greenbelt, Laurel, Camp Springs, Glen Burnie, Annapolis, Severn, South Gate, Severna Park, Arnold, Odenton, St. Charles, Waldorf, Lexington Park, California, Chesapeake Beach, Huntingtown, Dunkirk, North Beach, Lusby, Prince Frederick, Cumberland, Germantown, Damascus, Bethesda, Rockville, Gaithersburg, Silver Spring, Lisbon, Columbia, Ellicott City, Jarrettsville, Aberdeen, Staunton, Waynesboro, Stuarts Draft, Harrisonburg, Strasburg, Woodstock, Mount Jackson, New Market, Winchester, Luray, Shenandoah, Stanley, Front Royal, Berryville, Lovingston, Charlottesville, Stanardsville, Madison, Orange, Gordonsville, Culpeper, Reston, Herndon, Annandale, Centreville, Chantilly, McLean, Franconia, Arlington, Alexandria, Falls Church, Falmouth, Fredericksburg, Dahlgren, Warrenton, Turnbull, Purcellville, Leesburg, Ashburn, Sterling, Wintergreen, Haymarket, Dale City, Manassas, Woodbridge, Lake Ridge, Montclair, Paw Paw, Martinsburg, Charles Town, and Shepherdstown 907 PM EST Thu Feb 15 2024 ...ACCUMULATING SNOW POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT... Snow will overspread the area from west to east Friday evening and exit Saturday morning. Generally one to three inches of snow is expected at this time. Localized totals upwards of four to six inches are possible wherever the bands of snow set up. Snowfall rates of one to two inches per hour are possible in these bands. Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact travel Friday night into Saturday morning.

Is that 0.50 QPF in DC metro? I'm trying to differentiate the colors

They replaced it with another SPS

18z Euro is just about at its money frame...

Probably going WWA shortly

The erh map is the best ever

10:1 snow map FWIW on 18z RGEM

18z RGEM is a i66 special going by qpf field

Afternoon AFD from LWX Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 217 PM EST Thu Feb 15 2024 ... .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Very brief high pressure quickly traverses the area on Friday, bringing dry conditions for the daytime hours. Highs expected to reach the 30s in the Alleghenies, and 40s to low 50s elsewhere. A fast moving clipper system is forecast to track along or near the I-64 corridor in the southern 1/3rd of the CWA Friday tonight into Saturday morning. This system is going to bring widespread snow to most of the forecast area, with rain likely in areas south of the low`s track. The 12Z guidance continues to trend upwards with QPF and forecast snow amounts, with favorable dynamics for banding and high snow rates. Temps aloft are expected to be cold to support snow throughout the event. The highest snow amounts are likely in the Alleghenies and where any banding features develop (which at this point is difficult to pin down). In the Alleghenies, forecast snow amounts of 4-6" with isolated higher amounts up to 8" possible. Elsewhere, forecast snow amounts of 1-3" with isolated higher amounts of 4-5" possible. The Blue Ridge could see 2-5" of snow. Again, those higher end amounts are going to depend on where snow bands set up. The Winter Weather Watches remain for the Alleghenies and parts of the Potomac Highlands where confidence is high for 4-6" of snow. Winter Weather Advisories will likely be issued for most of the rest of the area tonight, as that will be around 24 hours before snow falls late Friday night. Stay tuned to the latest updates at weather.gov/lwx/winter. Precipitation ends from west to east Saturday morning, with any lingering light snow east of I-95 ending by late morning. Mountain snow showers continue through the afternoon. High pressure builds in Saturday afternoon as dry conditions prevail. Temperatures quickly rebound to the 30s to low 40s outside of the mountains, which should allow a good/most of the snow on the ground to melt. Temperatures Saturday night drop to 20s, with 10s for the mountains.

2pm update

It's showing blue... so...

I don't see the reason for it... but it's @Deck Pic thread then

Above quoted is hr 42 at DCA sounding. Below is hr 48 sounding at DCA

I mean that's DCA at 06z. Sounding is firmly below freezing at every level and 32 at surface... so I have no idea why rain is considered the best guess precip type. It has freezing rain at 48 hours as it's best guess precip type too. Very odd

Yes but what's with the best guess precip type of rain?

Huh?

I edited it in just before you posted

Very odd 12z UKIE run... I think we can safely toss

Borrowing this from @RIC Airport