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Tropical Storm Marco Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142020 1100 PM EDT Fri Aug 21 2020 An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft has investigated the system over the northwest Caribbean during the past few hours. The plane reported a number of unflagged SFMR winds between 35 and 40 kt and max flight level winds of 41 kt. A blend of these data supports an intensity of 35 kt, and therefore, this system has been designated as Tropical Storm Marco. Deep convection has increased near and to the east of Marco's center during the past few hours. Although there still isn't much evidence of inner-core banding, the data from the plane does indicate that the center of Marco has become better defined since the afternoon and that the minimum pressure has dropped. Unfortunately the intensity forecast has not become any clearer and confidence in that aspect of the forecast is quite low. Marco is embedded within an environment that could support a fast rate of strengthening. However, recent microwave data does not indicate that the system has developed an inner-core, and only gradual strengthening is likely until it does. The intensity guidance spread is quite high, with the GFS and ECMWF global models both showing little further strengthening, while the HMON regional model rapidly makes Marco a hurricane before it reaches the northeast tip of the Yucatan peninsula. That possibility can not be ruled out, but a majority of the intensity guidance favors the weaker solution of the global models. Even with the HMON outlier included, the NHC intensity forecast is above the model consensus. Once Marco moves over the central Gulf of Mexico, a rapid increase in wind shear associated with an upper-level trough should limit the potential for further strengthening, and weakening is still anticipated before Marco nears the northern Gulf Coast, as shown in the previous official forecast. Confidence in the track forecast is also lower than normal, as the models spread remains quite high. Only small adjustments were made to the NHC forecast which heavily favors the GFS and ECMWF solutions on the left side of the track guidance. It is worth noting that the NHC track forecast is near middle of the GFS and ECMWF ensembles. Marco is currently forecast to move northwestward toward a weakness in the subtropical ridge over the central Gulf of Mexico for the next day or two, before the ridge builds and turns the tropical cyclone farther west. Near the end of the period, Marco's track and intensity could be also influenced by Tropical Storm Laura which is also forecast to be over the Gulf of Mexico, however the details of that interaction are highly uncertain at this time. Given the high uncertainty in the forecast, larger than normal changes could be required to future advisories. Key Messages: 1. Marco is forecast to strengthen over the northwestern Caribbean Sea through Saturday as it approaches the northeast coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. A Hurricane Watch and a Tropical Storm Warning are in effect for portions of that region. 2. The system is expected to move into the south-central Gulf of Mexico as a tropical storm on Sunday. Although some strengthening is anticipated on Sunday, weakening is forecast as the system approaches the northwestern Gulf coast on Tuesday. It is still too soon to know exactly the location and magnitude of impacts the system will produce along the central or northwestern Gulf Coast, and interests in that area should continue monitoring the progress of this system over the next few days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0300Z 18.7N 84.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 22/1200Z 19.7N 85.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 23/0000Z 21.1N 86.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 23/1200Z 22.7N 88.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 24/0000Z 24.4N 89.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 24/1200Z 25.9N 91.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 25/0000Z 27.5N 92.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 26/0000Z 29.0N 95.4W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 120H 27/0000Z 30.0N 97.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Zelinsky

BULLETIN Tropical Storm Marco Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142020 1100 PM EDT Fri Aug 21 2020 ...TROPICAL STORM MARCO FORMS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN... ...FORECAST TO MOVE NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ON SATURDAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.7N 84.9W ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM SE OF COZUMEL MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Punta Herrero to Cancun Mexico A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Punta Herrero to Dzilam Mexico A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 24. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Marco was located near latitude 18.7 North, longitude 84.9 West. Marco is moving toward the north-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A slightly slower northwestward motion is expected for the next day or so, followed by an increase in forward speed by early next week. On the forecast track, the center of Marco will approach the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico on Saturday. The center will then cross the northeastern part of the Yucatan Peninsula Saturday night and move over the central Gulf of Mexico toward the northwestern Gulf on Sunday and Monday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days as the system approaches the Yucatan peninsula and Marco could be near hurricane strength when it moves over the central Gulf of Mexico on Sunday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches) based on reports from the Hurricane Hunter plane. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the eastern Yucatan coast within the warning area by Saturday afternoon and will spread northward and westward within the warning area Saturday night, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Hurricane conditions are also possible within the hurricane watch area by late Saturday. RAINFALL: Marco is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations through Sunday: Eastern portions of the Mexican states of Quintana Roo and Yucatan: 3 to 6 inches, isolated maximum totals of 10 inches. This rainfall may result in areas of flash flooding. Northeast Nicaragua and the Cayman Islands: 1 to 2 inches. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky

Marco at 11

Well as long as you have one of the best two records after the first six teams (1st and 2nd place in each division) make the playoffs... could still make it lol. My Rangers are 10-14 right now

down to 20 percent in the 8pm TWO Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Fri Aug 21 2020 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Laura, located near the northern Leeward Islands, and on Tropical Depression Fourteen, located over the northwestern Caribbean Sea. 1. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located between the west coast of Africa and the Cabo Verde Islands are associated with a broad area of low pressure and tropical wave. This disturbance is expected to move westward across the Cabo Verde Islands on Saturday and it will likely produce gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall there. Some slow development of this wave is possible during the next couple of days while it moves across the eastern tropical Atlantic before environmental conditions become less favorable for development. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. Forecaster Cangialosi

Tropical Depression Fourteen Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142020 1100 PM EDT Thu Aug 20 2020 The overall convective pattern has improved somewhat since the previous advisory, with a band of deep convection having developed near and just south of the low-level center. A pronounced mid-level circulation has been rotating westward to the north of the center of the broader low-level circulation, which has likely prevented the cyclone from becoming a tropical storm by now, especially given the very impressive outflow pattern. However, NOAA buoy 42057 to the north of the center recently reported a sustained wind of 29 kt at 4 meters elevation, which equals about a 32-kt 10-meter wind speed, which means that the cyclone isn't far from becoming a tropical storm. The intensity is being maintained at 30 kt until convection becomes more persistent. The center has been reforming a little farther north and has also slowed down, with the initial motion now being west-northwestward or 285/12 kt. The slower and farther north initial position has required a slight northward shift in the forecast track for the next 24 hours and, as a result, the center of the cyclone is no longer expected to make landfall very far inland over Honduras or Nicaragua, if it makes landfall at all. By 36 hours, the new NHC forecast track shifts back closer to the previous advisory track due to a strong mid-level ridge extending westward across Florida and into the eastern and central Gulf of Mexico. That feature is expected to keep the cyclone moving in a general northwestward direction on days 2-5, resulting in landfall over the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula on Saturday, and be approaching the northwestern Gulf coast by the middle of next week. The official forecast track lies along the southern edge of the guidance envelope, close to the middle of the simple consensus models and a little south of the NOAA-HCCA corrected model. Due to the northward shift in the new forecast track, the center and inner-core wind field of the cyclone will not be disrupted as much as previously expected, which has significant implications in the intensity forecast. The depression is now expected to reach hurricane strength just before it makes landfall on the east side of the Yucatan Peninsula in about 48 hours. Weakening is forecast in 60 hours while the cyclone moves across northeastern Yucatan, followed by gradual re-strengthening thereafter. Ocean temperatures along the path of the cyclone are forecast to be 30.0-30.5 deg C and the vertical shear is expected to remain low at less than 10 kt through 96 hours. Those conditions coupled with the impressive outflow pattern should allow for at least typical strengthening. By 120 hours, the GFS- and ECMWF-based SHIPS models show the vertical wind shear increasing sharply from the southwest to 20-25 kt, which would normally induce weakening. However, it appears that those models are incorporating some strong jetstream winds of 60-70 kt well to the northwest of the center of the cyclone, which has resulted in high bias in the shear output. Therefore, the cyclone is forecast to be near hurricane strength when it approaches the Texas coast in 120 hours. The new intensity forecast is similar to but a little higher then the previous advisory due to less land interaction than previously expected, and is is a blend of the Decay-SHIPS and LGEM models, which are at the upper-end of the guidance envelope. Key Messages: 1. Tropical Depression Fourteen is expected to strengthen over the northwestern Caribbean Sea through Saturday, and is likely to produce tropical-storm-force winds and heavy rainfall over portions of the coasts of Nicaragua and Honduras, including the Bay Islands, beginning tonight through Friday. The system is expected be near or at hurricane strength when it reaches the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico late Saturday where a Hurricane Watch and a Tropical Storm Warning are in effect. 2. The system is expected to move into the south-central Gulf of Mexico as a tropical storm on Sunday. Some strengthening is anticipated while it moves northwestward over the western Gulf of Mexico early next week, but it is too soon to know exactly how strong it will get or the location and magnitude of impacts it will produce along the central or northwestern Gulf Coast. Interests in that area should continue monitoring the progress of this system over the next few days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/0300Z 14.9N 82.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 21/1200Z 15.5N 83.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 22/0000Z 16.8N 85.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 22/1200Z 18.2N 86.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 23/0000Z 19.8N 87.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 23/1200Z 21.4N 88.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 72H 24/0000Z 23.2N 89.8W 50 KT 60 MPH...OVER WATER 96H 25/0000Z 26.7N 92.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 26/0000Z 29.1N 94.3W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Stewart

BULLETIN Tropical Depression Fourteen Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142020 1100 PM EDT Thu Aug 20 2020 ...DEPRESSION CLOSE TO BECOMING A TROPICAL STORM... ...HURRICANE WATCH AND TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.9N 82.2W ABOUT 65 MI...110 KM E OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER ABOUT 310 MI...495 KM ESE OF ISLA ROATAN HONDURAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Watch and a Tropical Storm Warning for portions of the eastern Yucatan Peninsula from Punta Herrero northward to Cancun, Mexico. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Punta Herrero to Cancun Mexico A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Honduras/Nicaragua border westward to Punta Castilla Honduras * Bay Islands of Honduras * Puerto Cabezas Nicaragua northward to the Honduras/Nicaragua border * Punta Herrero to Cancun Mexico A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fourteen was located near latitude 14.9 North, longitude 82.2 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general motion is forecast to continue through Friday morning. A turn toward the northwest with a decrease in forward speed is expected by Friday afternoon and continuing through at least Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of the system will move near or just offshore the coasts of northern Nicaragua and northeastern Honduras, including the Bay Islands, on Friday and approach the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico on Saturday. The center is then expected to cross the Yucatan Peninsula Saturday night and move into the south-central Gulf of Mexico on Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm on Friday. The system is forecast to be near or at hurricane strength when it reaches the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico late Saturday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the eastern Yucatan coast within the warning area by Saturday afternoon, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Hurricane conditions are also possible within the watch area by late Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coasts of northeastern Honduras and northern Nicaragua within the warning area later tonight and early Friday, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. These conditions will spread westward along the coast of Honduras within the warning area during the day on Friday. RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations through Sunday: Eastern portions of the Mexican states of Quintana Roo and Yucatan: 3 to 6 inches, isolated maximum totals of 10 inches. This rainfall may result in areas of flash flooding. Honduras: 2 to 4 inches. Jamaica and northern Nicaragua: 1 to 2 inches. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart

Don't see this often in Alaska Severe Thunderstorm Warning AKZ222-210145- /O.NEW.PAFG.SV.W.0002.200821T0119Z-200821T0145Z/ BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 517 PM AKDT Thu Aug 20 2020 The National Weather Service in Fairbanks has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Central Middle Tanana Valley in Alaska... * Until 545 PM AKDT. * At 517 PM AKDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Pleasant Valley, moving west at 15 mph. HAZARD...Quarter size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Damage to vehicles is expected. * Locations impacted include... The area from Chena Hot Springs Road south from Pleasant Valley to the Little Chena River. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. && LAT...LON 6487 14682 6477 14658 6473 14695 6488 14719 TIME...MOT...LOC 0117Z 087DEG 11KT 6480 14673 HAIL...1.00IN WIND...<50MPH $$ COWMAN

Always trying to get the puck to Ovie instead

Tropical Depression Fourteen Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142020 500 PM EDT Thu Aug 20 2020 An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigating the system found an area of lighter winds--likely where the center would be--farther south than previous estimates. The highest flight-level wind measured by the aircraft was 30 kt at an altitude of 2500 feet, and although there were some SFMR measurements over 40 kt, these looked coincident with some heavy rain rates and thus are probably not reliable. Therefore, the initial intensity remains 30 kt. Structurally, the depression has a large cloud envelope with sporadic convective cells located in loose bands. The updated initial position derived from the aircraft data indicates that the current motion is still westward, or 270/16 kt. This southward adjustment really only affected the first 36 hours or so of the forecast, with NHC's official track forecast being shifted southward during that period. This ends up taking the cyclone's center over extreme northern Nicaragua and northeastern Honduras in 12-24 hours. After 36 hours, model guidance remains in good agreement that the system should turn northwestward due to a deep-layer trough over the Gulf of Mexico. The new set of model guidance has not shifted much from the previous cycle, and the NHC track forecast is very close to the morning forecast despite the initial position adjustment, with perhaps a slight eastward shift on days 4 and 5. In general, the NHC forecast is closest to the GFS and HCCA model solutions. The depression's farther-south position makes the intensity forecast more complicated with potentially more land interaction with parts of Central America. Slight strengthening to tropical storm strength is expected before the center reaches Honduras and Nicaragua, with little change thereafter until the center re-emerges over the Gulf of Honduras. Low shear and warm sea surface temperatures should then support further intensification up until it reaches the Yucatan Peninsula. Since there is significant uncertainty in how land interaction will affect the cyclone's intensity, the forecast intensity has been flat-lined between day 2 and day 4, with the understanding that the the winds could increase or decrease from the value shown. Vertical shear is expected to increase by day 5, and some weakening is shown at that time. Key Messages: 1. Tropical Depression Fourteen is expected to strengthen over the northwestern Caribbean Sea through Saturday, and is likely to produce tropical-storm-force winds and heavy rainfall over portions of the coasts of Nicaragua and Honduras, including the Bay Islands, beginning tonight through Friday. The system could be near or at hurricane strength when it reaches the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico late Saturday, and watches could be required for a portion of that area tonight. 2. The system is expected to move into the south-central Gulf of Mexico as a tropical storm on Sunday. Some strengthening is anticipated while it moves northwestward over the western Gulf of Mexico early next week, but it is too soon to know exactly how strong it will get or the location and magnitude of impacts it will produce along the central or northwestern Gulf Coast. Interests in that area should continue monitoring the progress of this system over the next few days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/2100Z 14.3N 81.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 21/0600Z 14.7N 83.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 21/1800Z 15.6N 84.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 36H 22/0600Z 17.0N 85.6W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER 48H 22/1800Z 18.7N 86.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 23/0600Z 20.3N 87.9W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND 72H 23/1800Z 22.1N 89.2W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER 96H 24/1800Z 26.0N 91.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 25/1800Z 28.5N 93.5W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg

Tropical Depression Fourteen Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142020 500 PM EDT Thu Aug 20 2020 ...AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS THE DEPRESSION A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.3N 81.0W ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM ESE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Honduras has upgraded the Tropical Storm Watch to a Tropical Storm Warning from the Honduras/Nicaragua border westward to Punta Castilla and for the Bay Islands. The government of Nicaragua has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the coast of Nicaragua from Puerto Cabezas northward. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Honduras/Nicaragua border westward to Punta Castilla Honduras * Bay Islands of Honduras * Puerto Cabezas Nicaragua northward to the Honduras/Nicaragua border A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 hours. Additional watches or warnings, including for the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, may be required later this evening or tonight. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fourteen was located near latitude 14.3 North, longitude 81.0 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 18 mph (30 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through tonight. A turn toward the west-northwest and northwest with a decrease in forward speed is forecast on Friday, with a general northwest motion continuing through at least Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of the system will move near or over extreme northern Nicaragua and northeastern Honduras, including the Bay Islands, on Friday and approach the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico on Saturday. The center is then expected to cross the Yucatan Peninsula Saturday night and move into the south-central Gulf of Mexico on Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm tonight. The system could be near or at hurricane strength when it reaches the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico late Saturday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast within the warning area by tonight, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. These conditions will spread westward along the coast of Honduras within the warning area on Friday. RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations through Sunday: Eastern portions of the Mexican states of Quintana Roo and Yucatan: 3 to 6 inches, isolated maximum totals of 10 inches. This rainfall may result in areas of flash flooding. Honduras: 2 to 4 inches. Jamaica and northern Nicaragua: 1 to 2 inches. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Berg

NHC doesn't seem too enthused about it in the 2AM TWO -- https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATWOAT+shtml/190524_MIATWOAT.shtml

lol Tom Wilson is trending on Twitter... easy to see why... another dirty hit into the boards

Ovechkin finally played an entire game. Backstrom being out hurts you guys the most I think... guess we'll see what happens in Game 5 on Thursday

Jesus... TS to Cat 4 in 48 hours Tropical Storm Genevieve Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122020 400 AM CDT Mon Aug 17 2020 Genevieve's infrared satellite presentation continues to improve in organization, with the center embedded beneath a Central Dense Overcast and strong convection occurring in two bands to the southwest and northwest of the center. There has been a dearth of microwave data over the cyclone during the past few hours, so it's difficult to know how the internal structure has changed, but subjective and objective satellite estimates all support raising the intensity to 55 kt. Genevieve's motion has not changed--still west-northwestward (290 degrees) at 16 kt. The cyclone will be moving along the periphery of a strong mid-level ridge which extends from the southwestern United States southeastward into Mexico. This ridge should steer Genevieve toward the west-northwest or northwest for the entire 5-day forecast period, but small variations in the strength and orientation of the ridge will play a role in how close Genevieve gets to the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula. The track models are showing a slight bend to the storm's forecast path in 2-3 days, with the most recent run of the GFS showing a much closer approach to the Baja California peninsula. At this stage, however, that model is a bit of an outlier compared to the other guidance. Still, given the new set of models, the updated NHC track forecast has been shifted north and east of the previous track prediction, and it lies very close to the ECMWF, HWRF, and HCCA model solutions. Some of the intensity guidance for Genevieve is incredible. Due to low shear, very warm water, and high atmospheric moisture, several of the various SHIPS Rapid Intensification (RI) indices for the 12-, 24-, and 36-hour forecast periods are between 95 and 100 percent--numbers that suggest there is little doubt that Genevieve will go through a period of significant RI during the next couple of days. RI is explicitly shown in the NHC intensity forecast, which is very near the HCCA and Florida State Superensemble solutions and shows Genevieve peaking as a category 4 hurricane in about 48 hours. Amazingly, the LGEM and COAMPS-TC models are even higher than what is indicated in the official forecast, showing a peak intensity of 125-130 kt. A combination of cooler waters and increasing shear (especially at the end of the forecast period) is expected to cause weakening on days 3 through 5. Large swells generated by Genevieve are expected to begin affecting portions of the coast of southern Mexico today and will spread northward along the coast of Mexico to the Baja California peninsula by Wednesday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/0900Z 13.3N 101.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 17/1800Z 14.4N 104.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 18/0600Z 16.0N 106.7W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 18/1800Z 17.4N 108.7W 110 KT 125 MPH 48H 19/0600Z 18.7N 110.1W 120 KT 140 MPH 60H 19/1800Z 20.0N 111.2W 115 KT 130 MPH 72H 20/0600Z 21.3N 112.3W 100 KT 115 MPH 96H 21/0600Z 23.5N 115.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 22/0600Z 25.5N 118.5W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg

00z Euro doesn't do much with the first wave... 2nd wave it develops looking at 850mb vorticity but then seems to lose it for a while as it heads just north of DR/Haiti and Cuba... then gets its act together again... looks like once it gets into the Eastern GOM it decides to reappear and strengthen... interesting run

Terrifying in its overdone as usual... CMC is a crap tropical model And really? You expect the 2nd tropical system to ride over all of Cuba and deepen? Come on...

https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/timeseries.php?sid=DEVC1&num=72&banner=gmap&raw=0&w=325 Ah, a nice balmy 107 at 9am

So much fun to watch that OT goal... Caps are done. They had that one great season where they won it all in 2018... but they go nowhere in the playoffs basically in other years. And yes... I know the Penguins didn't even make the playoffs this year... and the Islanders swept the Penguins last postseason. But at least we have 3 Cups with Crosby and the such

2 AM TWO has double lemons Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Sun Aug 16 2020 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Josephine, located just over a hundred miles north-northeast of the northern Leeward Islands, and on Tropical Storm Kyle, located several hundred miles southwest of Cape Race, Newfoundland. 1. A fast-moving tropical wave located over the central tropical Atlantic several hundred miles east of the Windward Islands is producing a small area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. This system is expected to move westward at about 20 mph during the next few days, and that fast speed is likely to limit development while the system approaches the Windward and southern Leeward Islands today and Monday and moves across the eastern Caribbean Sea on Tuesday. After that time, the system is expected to move more slowly westward across the central and western Caribbean Sea, and upper-level winds could be conducive for development during the middle to latter part of this week. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. 2. Another tropical wave moving off the coast of Africa is producing a large area of cloudiness and showers. This wave is forecast to move westward at 15 to 20 mph during the next few days, and some development will be possible by the middle to latter part of the week as environmental conditions become more conducive while the system is over the central tropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. Forecaster Berg

00z EURO has signs of SLP... two of them in the MDR... but ends up doing next to nothing with them and keeps them very weak (>1008mb)

CMC is down in Nicaragua and Honduras... and nothing shows up behind it in the MDR. GFS is a TS into the Yucatan and hurricane into Southern Mexico... also with no real tropical systems behind it in the MDR