yoda

NHC still says no at 2 am on their TWO about it due to no closed surface wind circ... which I guess means no closed LLC Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Tue Sep 1 2020 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Depression Fifteen, located a little over a hundred miles south of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina. 1. A seemingly well-organized cluster of showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave is moving quickly westward across the central Caribbean Sea, but satellite-derived wind data from a few hours ago again showed that the system has not developed a closed surface wind circulation. The wave is, however, producing an area of winds near tropical storm force south of the coast of Haiti, which will move near or south of Jamaica later this morning. Environmental conditions are expected to become a little more conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next couple of days before the system reaches Central America Wednesday night. Locally heavy rains and gusty winds are possible on Jamaica today, and interests there, as well as in northern Nicaragua, Honduras, Belize, Guatemala, and the Yucatan Peninsula, should monitor the progress of this disturbance. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent. 2. A tropical wave is expected to emerge off the coast of Africa in a day or so. Gradual development of this system will be possible through the end of the week while it moves slowly westward over the far eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

Guess I will try my hand at this again lol DCA +1.8 NYC +1.4 BOS +1.5 ORD +0.5 ATL +1.7 IAH +1.1 DEN +2.0 PHX +3.5 SEA +2.4

Remember to end your post with bingo bango

Its not on the Euro... so I'm tossing it

Too many people are making jokes about the ops (main models) past few days showing nothing... that's why. Just wanted to be sure. It's on tropical tidbits. Click ensemble... then gfs-para. Then you can choose the hours you want to look at from there on the scroll button

No TD at 11pm... guess we will wait till tomorrow

I think he meant the website weathermodels... not the actual ones... at least I thought that @TradeWinds is that what you meant? Or were you trolling about the actual weather models themselves?

Shows how much it was forgotten by me since it was sheared to pieces in the GOM before Laura Guess it will be Nana then

Well here comes Marco that will move out to sea... 3. An area of low pressure is expected to form off of the southeastern coast of the United States in a day or two. Subsequent development of this system is possible and a tropical depression could form by the middle of the week while the system moves northeastward or east-northeastward, initially parallel to the southeastern coast of the U.S. and then away from land. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent. Forecaster Zelinsky

I dont see anything on USGS

RIP Chadwick Boseman

TVS sig on radarscope near Front Royal

Hmmm 2.75 hail marker over DC on radarscope

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 552 PM EDT Fri Aug 28 2020 .SYNOPSIS... A surface trough will persist near I-95 through tonight. Meanwhile, the remnants of Laura will merge with a cold front over the Ohio River Valley tonight, then cross the Middle Atlantic on Saturday. Canadian high pressure will build in Sunday into Monday. A few frontal systems will likely impact the area during the middle to latter portions of next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... A Flash Flood Watch has been issued until 4 AM for areas along the I-66/US-50 corridor and then up along I-95 into Baltimore. We`re growing concerned that flooding may occur as ongoing storms drop an E-W oriented outflow boundary southward. As the trough to our west approaches, and we start to feel it`s influence, flow at 850 hPa is expected to turn southerly and start to overrun/warm advect atop the stalling outflow boundary. With flow aloft paralleling the boundary, the potential is there for training of storms along and north of the outflow boundary this evening into the overnight hours. The HRRR and NAM show a narrow stripe of 2-6 inches of rain within the Flash Flood Watch in the vicinity of the stalled boundary between roughly 00 and 06z. By late tonight, low-level southerly flow will further increase in advance of the trough/remnants of Laura, causing the boundary and associated warm advection precipitation to its north to break out of a stalled position and lift northward.

Flood Watch National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 459 PM EDT Fri Aug 28 2020 DCZ001-MDZ011-013-014-503>506-VAZ027>031-038>040-051>054-501-502- 505>507-290500- /O.NEW.KLWX.FF.A.0026.200828T2100Z-200829T0800Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ District of Columbia-Southern Baltimore-Prince Georges- Anne Arundel-Northwest Montgomery- Central and Southeast Montgomery-Northwest Howard- Central and Southeast Howard-Shenandoah-Frederick VA-Page-Warren- Clarke-Greene-Madison-Rappahannock-Culpeper- Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park-Fairfax- Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria-Northern Fauquier- Southern Fauquier-Western Loudoun-Eastern Loudoun- Northern Virginia Blue Ridge- Including the cities of Washington, Baltimore, Bowie, Suitland-Silver Hill, Clinton, College Park, Greenbelt, Laurel, Camp Springs, Glen Burnie, Annapolis, Severn, South Gate, Severna Park, Arnold, Odenton, Germantown, Damascus, Bethesda, Rockville, Gaithersburg, Silver Spring, Lisbon, Columbia, Ellicott City, Strasburg, Woodstock, Mount Jackson, New Market, Winchester, Luray, Shenandoah, Stanley, Front Royal, Berryville, Stanardsville, Madison, Culpeper, Dale City, Manassas, Woodbridge, Lake Ridge, Montclair, Reston, Herndon, Annandale, Centreville, Chantilly, McLean, Franconia, Arlington, Alexandria, Falls Church, Warrenton, Turnbull, Purcellville, Leesburg, Ashburn, Sterling, and Big Meadows 459 PM EDT Fri Aug 28 2020 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EDT SATURDAY... The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Flash Flood Watch for portions of Maryland, The District of Columbia, and Virginia, including the following areas, in Maryland, Anne Arundel, Central and Southeast Howard, Central and Southeast Montgomery, Northwest Howard, Northwest Montgomery, Prince Georges, and Southern Baltimore. The District of Columbia. In Virginia, Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria, Clarke, Culpeper, Eastern Loudoun, Fairfax, Frederick, Greene, Madison, Northern Fauquier, Northern Virginia Blue Ridge, Page, Prince William, Rappahannock, Shenandoah, Southern Fauquier, Warren, and Western Loudoun. * Until 4 AM EDT Saturday * Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected this evening into the overnight hours. Some of the showers and thunderstorms will produce heavy rainfall, with localized amounts between 2 and 4 inches likely. * Potential impacts include rapid rises of water, flooded roads, and flooding of structures in low lying areas near streams. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a very dangerous situation. You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 251 PM EDT Fri Aug 28 2020 DEC001-003-MDC015-029-281930- /O.CON.KPHI.SV.W.0270.000000T0000Z-200828T1930Z/ New Castle DE-Kent DE-Kent MD-Cecil MD- 251 PM EDT Fri Aug 28 2020 ...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 330 PM EDT FOR SOUTHWESTERN NEW CASTLE...NORTHWESTERN KENT...NORTHEASTERN KENT AND SOUTHEASTERN CECIL COUNTIES... At 250 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Warwick, or near Middletown, moving east at 25 mph. HAZARD...Two inch hail and 60 mph wind gusts. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect hail damage to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles. Wind damage to roofs, siding, trees, and power lines is possible. Locations impacted include... Middletown, Smyrna, Clayton, Cheswold, Warwick, Sassafras, Delaney Corner, Green Spring, Townsend, Odessa and Chambersville. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Protecting yourself from immediate threats to life and safety shall take priority. Whenever possible, as long as it does not cause greater harm, all COVID-19 protective action guidance should be followed. Prepare immediately for large hail and damaging winds. People outside should seek shelter inside a well-built structure and away from windows. Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm. Move indoors immediately. Lightning is one of nature`s leading killers. Remember, if you can hear thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning. && LAT...LON 3944 7582 3947 7572 3945 7555 3937 7548 3920 7557 3936 7586 TIME...MOT...LOC 1850Z 290DEG 21KT 3941 7575 HAIL...2.00IN WIND...60MPH $$ Staarmann

You should use the uber banhammer

STW till 8pm for northern 2/3rds of LWX CWA

TW for Huntingdon/Mifflin counties till 1:45pm

1630 disco

1630 SPC OTLK SLGT risk for most of LWX CWA into C VA

This is interesting... wave going to break in 2 Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Fri Aug 28 2020 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center has issued the last advisory on Tropical Depression Laura, centered inland over Arkansas. Future advisories will be issued by the Weather Prediction Center. A tropical wave located about 1000 miles east of the Windward Islands is producing an area of showers and thunderstorms. Some gradual development of this system is possible during the next several days while it moves westward at about 15 mph toward the eastern Caribbean islands. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. Another tropical wave is located over the eastern Atlantic Ocean just west of the Cabo Verde Islands. The northern part of this wave, which should move rapidly westward over the central Atlantic during the next few days, is not forecast to develop as it is expected to remain in unfavorable environmental conditions. However, the southern part of the wave is expected be nearly stationary south of the Cabo Verde Islands for the next several days, and some development of this system is possible early next week when it begins to move slowly westward over the eastern and central tropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD 1112 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2020 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 1101 PM TSTM WND GST 1 E HAYES 44.37N 101.00W 08/27/2020 M104 MPH STANLEY SD PUBLIC PERSONAL WEATHER STATION.

97mph wind gust reported in the MCS in SD tonight PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD 1119 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2020 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 1100 PM TSTM WND GST 2 ENE BUNKER 44.25N 101.06W 08/27/2020 M97 MPH STANLEY SD PUBLIC PERSONAL WEATHER STATION. RADAR ESTIMATED TIME AND APPROXIMATE LOCATION.

STW Allegheny and Mineral counties till 915pm moving SE at 35