yoda

SPC doesn't like today for us... but tomorrow... woah at the disco... here is the morning Day 2

this weekend looks good for that

00z NAM soundings for both tomorrow and Thursday look pretty nice... Thursday looks a lil better IMO due to a bit stronger deep layer shear

Gone in 72 hours lol Tropical Storm Nana Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162020 1100 PM EDT Tue Sep 01 2020 Deep convection redeveloped over the center of Nana during the late afternoon and recent microwave imagery has revealed a small, well-defined low-level eye-like feature, and convective banding around the southwestern portion of the circulation. An Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft that has provided a couple of center fixes within the past hour or two has measured a peak 850-mb flight-level wind of 62 kt, and believable SFMR winds of around 50 kt, which supports an initial intensity of 50 kt. Data from aircraft indicated that the minimum pressure is around 999 mb. Nana is moving westward or 275/16 kt. A strong deep-layer ridge to the north of the tropical cyclone should steer it westward over the next day or so. After that time, the ridge is forecast to build west-southwestward and the dynamical models indicate that this will cause Nana to turn west-southwestward by Thursday. On this track, Nana is expected to approach the coast of Belize late Wednesday night or early Thursday, and move inland over Belize and Guatemala later that day. The track guidance is in good agreement on this scenario but has trended slightly southward, which seems reasonable given that Nana is vertically deep and is more likely to feel the deep-layered east-northeasterly flow. The new NHC track forecast is close to the FSU Superensemble and the HFIP corrected consensus model. The tropical storm is currently within an environment of light to moderate northeasterly shear. This shear does not seem to be strong enough to prevent strengthening during the next 12-24 hours, and the NHC intensity forecast shows a slightly faster rate of intensification during that time. This is in agreement with the latest SHIPS model output and the HCCA and HWRF models, and calls for Nana to become a hurricane within 24 hours. The shear is forecast to become more northerly just before landfall, and this is likely to slow the intensification process. Rapid weakening is expected after landfall, and the low-level circulation is expected to dissipate over Guatemala or southeastern Mexico by day 3. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Tropical Storm Nana is forecast to be a hurricane as it approaches the coast, and interests in Honduras, Guatemala, Belize, and Yucatan should closely monitor the progress of this storm. Strong winds, dangerous storm surge and very heavy rainfall causing flash flooding are becoming more likely from Nana. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/0300Z 17.0N 80.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 02/1200Z 17.1N 83.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 03/0000Z 17.0N 86.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 03/1200Z 16.8N 88.6W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND 48H 04/0000Z 16.5N 90.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 60H 04/1200Z 16.2N 93.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 05/0000Z...DISSIPATED

8pm TWO mentions 30 percent chance for that to develop 1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a small area of low pressure about midway between the Windward Islands and west Africa appear to be slowly becoming better organized. Some additional development of this system is possible this week as the system meanders in the central tropical Atlantic Ocean. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

URNT12 KNHC 011719 VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL162020 A. 01/16:32:20Z B. 16.59 deg N 077.82 deg W C. 850 mb 1455 m D. 1004 mb E. 290 deg 15 kt F. CLOSED G. C6 H. 42 kt I. 119 deg 10 nm 16:24:00Z J. 076 deg 58 kt K. 343 deg 6 nm 16:30:30Z L. 48 kt M. 295 deg 34 nm 16:47:00Z N. 052 deg 54 kt O. 316 deg 7 nm 16:39:30Z P. 17 C / 1522 m Q. 20 C / 1540 m R. 14 C / NA S. 12345 / 8 T. 0.02 / 1.25 nm U. AF307 01FFA INVEST OB 16 MAX FL WIND 60 KT 078 / 7 NM 15:39:30Z ;

MRGL remains for Day 2 on 1730 SPC OTLK... but talks of an upgrade

I would have thought higher in teh wind forecast with the eye report in the VDM.... guess we shall see then

Now let's see if this system sneaks in a quick name change from TD 15 to Omar before its gone

There it is... but set at 50mph Tropical Storm Nana Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162020 1205 PM EDT Tue Sep 01 2020 ...POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE STRENGTHENS TO TROPICAL STORM NANA... Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft data indicate that the potential tropical cyclone has become Tropical Storm Nana. The maximum winds are estimated to be 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. A special advisory will be issued to update the forecast within the hour. SUMMARY OF 1205 PM AST...1605 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.5N 77.7W ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM SW OF KINGSTON JAMAICA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES $$ Forecaster Blake/Stewart

True. You could only go high risk here if the event was unfolding with as you say numerous tornadoes (EF2 or something) or a derecho coming in from the west. The derecho in 2012 however, caught the region, including local TV mets off-guard per the NWS report though.

Damn... hope you got your money back then

Here's the sounding

I don't think we will ever see a high risk here -- even the derecho in late June that was rampaging through the Ohio Valley the night of the infamous 00z LWX sounding (102/70 I think it was with nearly 6000 SBCAPE) only garnered a moderate risk on the 2000 SPC OTLK and the 0100 OTLK

Question is will they send out a special update to name it TS Nana or just wait till the 2pm advisory?

Ding ding. 100% correct. Part of it also is the $15 per hour push (though I admit that I pushed for it as well) for many of the jobs by today's younger generation as well. Many of the younger generation that are coming out of HS into college don't want to do what they consider as menial jobs. In addition, if it gets "too hard", they quit.

That does look like a pretty good sounding for an isolated brief tornado or two

PTC 16 will either be Nana or short lived Omar shortly at 5pm IMO

Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162020 1100 AM EDT Tue Sep 01 2020 An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is currently investigating the vigorous tropical disturbance located south of Jamaica that the NHC has been tracking the past few days across the Caribbean Sea. An earlier report of 35 kt winds this morning from ship MAOR4 is the basis for the 35-kt initial intensity on Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen. (PTC-16) The initial motion estimate is an uncertain 285/16 kt, based mainly on past scatterometer surface wind data and passive microwave satellite fix data. A strong deep-layer to the north of the system is expected to build slowly westward over the next few days, keeping the disturbance moving in a general west-northwestward to westward direction through 48 hours, followed by a turn toward the west-southwest shortly thereafter when the system will be inland over Central America. The NHC official forecast track lies close to a blend of the simple consensus models TVCN and GFEX, and the corrected-consensus model HCCA. The disturbance has already developed an upper-level anticyclone, with outflow only restricted in the northeastern quadrant due to northeasterly shear of about 15 kt. This modest northeasterly to easterly vertical wind shear is expected to gradually subside to less than 10 kt by 48 hours, which should allow for at least some slow but steady strengthening, given that sea-surface temperatures (SST) will be 29.5-30.5 deg C along the track. Occasional intrusions of dry mid-level air might hinder development for the next 24-36 hours, but model guidance shows that the atmosphere is expected to moisten thereafter and right up until landfall. The official intensity forecast is similar to the consensus of the intensity guidance through 24 hours, and then is a little above the consensus at 36 h and 48 h due to the very warm waters, moistening atmosphere, and low shear conditions. The statistical SHIPS guidance suggests that the cyclone could reach hurricane strength just prior to landfall. This alternate scenario will be evaluated on the next advisory cycle. Due to the system's expected proximity to the north coast of Honduras and Roatan Island, a Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for those areas. Additional watches and possible warnings will likely be required later today for Guatemala, Belize, and the southern portion of the Yucatan Peninsula. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/1500Z 16.1N 77.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 02/0000Z 16.4N 79.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL STORM 24H 02/1200Z 16.6N 82.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 03/0000Z 16.7N 85.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 03/1200Z 16.8N 87.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 04/0000Z 16.5N 89.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 72H 04/1200Z 15.7N 91.7W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 05/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart

BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162020 1100 AM EDT Tue Sep 01 2020 ...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FINDS VIGOROUS TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SOUTH OF JAMAICA GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR NORTHERN HONDURAS AND THE OFFSHORE ROATAN ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.1N 77.5W ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM SSW OF KINGSTON JAMAICA ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM SSE OF NEGRIL JAMAICA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 285 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the northern coast of Honduras from Punta Patuca westward to the Guatemala-Honduras border, including Roatan Island and the Bay Islands of Honduras. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Northern Honduras * Roatan Island and the Bay Islands of Honduras A Tropical Storm Watch may be required for portions of Guatemala, Belize, and the southern Yucatan Peninsula later today. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 16.1 North, longitude 77.5 West. The system is moving toward the west near 18 mph (30 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Thursday. On the forecast track, the system will be moving near but north of the coast of Honduras on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Additional development is expected today and on Wednesday, and a tropical depression or tropical storm could form at any time. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km), mainly northeast through northwest of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by late Wednesday. RAINFALL: Rainfall amounts of 2 to 3 inches will be possible over the northern portions of Honduras beginning late Wednesday. SURF: Swells generated by this system are affecting portions of the southern coast of Jamaica, and will continue into Wednesday morning. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart

Tropical Depression Fifteen Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152020 1100 AM EDT Tue Sep 01 2020 The depression has become better organized this morning with the center embedded in the western side of a growing area of deep convection. An earlier buoy report recorded adjusted maximum winds of 32 kt, and roughly half of the estimates show that the depression is a tropical storm. Conservatively, the winds will be held at 30 kt until we will see what the scatterometer shows this afternoon. Increasing shear is expected to limit any significant strengthening, although it does seem more likely than not that this system will barely make it to a tropical storm later today. The shear is forecast to get quite strong by tomorrow afternoon, so weakening is anticipated by then, and persistence of that shear is expected to cause the cyclone to decay into a remnant low in about 48 hours. While the initial part of the forecast is a little higher than the last one, this change is really in the noise level for intensity prediction and is only noticeable because of the tropical storm threshold. The initial motion has turned toward the east-northeast or 060/12 kt. There is reasonable agreement among the guidance that this motion will continue through tomorrow, and then become eastward during the next 2-3 days around the northern side of the subtropical ridge, followed by a northeastward turn by day 4. Similar to the last forecast, most of the uncertainty is with the speed, rather than the direction of the cyclone. The new forecast is closer to the faster guidance and the previous NHC track prediction. Dissipation is shown at 120h, although a few models have it occuring as early as days 2-3. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/1500Z 34.7N 73.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 02/0000Z 35.6N 71.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 02/1200Z 36.5N 68.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 03/0000Z 37.2N 65.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 03/1200Z 37.3N 62.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 04/0000Z 37.0N 59.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 04/1200Z 37.0N 57.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 05/1200Z 39.5N 52.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 06/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake

TD 15 remains at 5am... not going to make it to TS Nana per disco, should be gone in a few days as shear destroys it

No recon till later today... and no LLC (or no closed surface wind circ as said above in the 2am TWO) no upgrade at 5am

MRGL risk tomorrow for wind... SLGT risk for Thursday