yoda

Hurricane Delta Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020 1100 PM EDT Mon Oct 05 2020 A few hours ago, data from the NOAA Hurricane Hunters supported upgrading Delta to a hurricane. Very recent reports from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters, who are currently in Delta, support increasing the intensity a little more to 70 kt. The minimum pressure has also decreased a few mb from the NOAA mission, and is now estimated to be 977 mb. Delta has strengthened at a rapid rate of 40 kt since genesis occurred just 24 hours ago. The hurricane is quite compact with a developing tight inner core, and even the tropical-storm-force winds extend only up to 60 n mi or so from the center. After moving westward for much of the day, aircraft fixes from NOAA and the Air Force indicate that the hurricane has resumed a west-northwest motion, with the latest initial motion estimated to be 295/6 kt. Delta is expected to move to the northwest at a fairly quick pace on Tuesday and Wednesday as it moves in the flow between a subtropical high over the western Atlantic and Post-Tropical Cyclone Gamma over or near the Yucatan Peninsula. This motion should take Delta over or very near the northeastern portion of the Yucatan Peninsula by Tuesday night and over the southern Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday. After that time, the western part of the ridge is expected to slowly erode as a trough moves eastward across the south-central U.S. This change in the steering pattern should cause Delta to slow down and then turn northward toward the northern Gulf coast, and it will likely make landfall there in a little more than 4 days. The models are in fair agreement, and the NHC track forecast is only a touch to the west of the previous one. The hurricane has taken advantage of the near ideal conditions of low vertical wind shear, high amounts of moisture, and very warm 29-30 C SSTs. These favorable environmental conditions for the hurricane will persist for the next 2 or 3 days or so, and therefore, it seems reasonable to believe that rapid intensification will continue in the short term. Delta is expected to become a major hurricane in about 24 hours when it is near the Yuctan Peninsula. If Delta makes landfall on that landmass, it would likely temper the cyclone's strength for a period of time. Beyond a few days, when Delta is forecast to approach the northern Gulf coast, there will likely be an increase in southwesterly wind shear. These less conducive upper-level winds and cooler shelf waters should end the strengthening trend prior to the U.S. landfall. The NHC intensity forecast is largely an update of the previous one and lies close to the HCCA and IVCN consensus models. Users are reminded to not focus on the details of the track or intensity forecasts, as the average 4-day track error is around 150 miles and the average 4-day intensity error is close to 15 mph. Key Messages: 1. Dangerous storm surge and hurricane conditions are expected within portions of the northern Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico beginning Tuesday night, and a Hurricane Warning is in effect. 2. Heavy rainfall will affect portions of Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, western Cuba and the northern Yucatan Peninsula during the next few days. This rainfall could lead to significant flash flooding and mudslides. 3. Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the Cayman Islands beginning early Tuesday, and a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect. 4. Delta is forecast to approach the northern Gulf Coast late this week as a hurricane. While there is large uncertainty in the track and intensity forecasts, there is an increasing risk of dangerous storm surge, wind, and rainfall hazards along the coast from Louisiana to the western Florida Panhandle beginning Thursday night or Friday. Residents in these areas should ensure they have their hurricane plan in place and monitor updates to the forecast of Delta. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0300Z 16.8N 80.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 06/1200Z 18.1N 82.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 07/0000Z 19.8N 84.6W 100 KT 115 MPH 36H 07/1200Z 21.5N 87.1W 105 KT 120 MPH...INLAND 48H 08/0000Z 23.0N 89.5W 105 KT 120 MPH 60H 08/1200Z 24.0N 90.8W 105 KT 120 MPH 72H 09/0000Z 25.2N 91.7W 100 KT 115 MPH 96H 10/0000Z 28.6N 91.2W 85 KT 100 MPH 120H 11/0000Z 33.6N 88.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

BULLETIN Hurricane Delta Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020 1100 PM EDT Mon Oct 05 2020 ...DELTA CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN... ...HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE NORTHEAST YUCATAN PENINSULA... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.8N 80.3W ABOUT 170 MI...270 KM SW OF NEGRIL JAMAICA ABOUT 180 MI...295 KM SSE OF GRAND CAYMAN MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...977 MB...28.85 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Cuba has replaced the Hurricane Warning with a Tropical Storm Warning for the province of Pinar Del Rio and discontinued the Hurricane Watch for the province of Artemisa and the Isle of Youth. The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning from Punta Herrero northward to Tulum and from Rio Lagartos westward to Progresso. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Tulum to Rio Lagartos Mexico * Cozumel A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Cayman Islands including Little Cayman and Cayman Brac * Cuba province of Pinar del Rio * Isle of Youth * Punta Herrero to Tulum * Rio Lagartos to Progresso A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Cuba province of La Habana A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

What a 5 day track lol

Tropical Depression Twenty-Six Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020 1100 PM EDT Sun Oct 04 2020 Satellite data indicate that the disturbance just south of Jamaica has become better organized this evening. Microwave and shortwave infrared images indicate that the center is now well defined, and deep convection has been persisting near and to the south of the center. Based on this data, the system now meets the criteria to be considered a tropical depression. The initial intensity remains 30 kt for this advisory. The depression is currently moving west-northwestward at 8 kt on the southern side of an Atlantic subtropical ridge. A continued west-northwest to northwest motion at about the same forward speed is expected during the next 24 to 36 hours, taking the system across the Cayman Islands and toward western Cuba. Around the time the depression is expected to be near western Cuba, the models show it accelerating northwestward as it moves in the faster flow between the ridge and Tropical Storm Gamma. This motion should bring the tropical cyclone into the southern Gulf of Mexico Tuesday night or early Wednesday. Later on, a notable slow down and a turn to the north is forecast to occur late in the week when the depression will likely be approaching the northern Gulf coast. This change in the forecast motion is a result of the ridge weakening and a trough approaching the cyclone from the west. The models are in relatively good agreement, which is surprising since they often diverge for weak systems, and the NHC track forecast lies near the middle of the guidance envelope. There is currently some northeasterly shear affecting the depression, but the models all show the shear lessening by tomorrow and remaining fairly light for the next few days. These improving upper-level wind conditions combined with a moist air mass and warm waters should allow for at least steady strengthening during the next few days. By late in the week, when the storm is forecast to approach the U.S. Gulf coast, there could be an increase in southerly or southwesterly shear, which could limit additional strengthening by that time. The NHC intensity forecast lies fairly close to the IVCN and HCCA consensus aids, and shows the depression becoming a hurricane near western Cuba with additional strengthening over the Gulf of Mexico. Users are reminded that the average 4- and 5-day NHC track forecast errors are about 160 to 200 miles at those time periods, respectively. Key Messages: 1. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Cayman Islands beginning late Monday, and a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect. 2. Dangerous storm surge and hurricane conditions are possible in portions of western Cuba and the Isle of Youth by Tuesday afternoon, and a Hurricane Watch is in effect. 3. Heavy rainfall will affect portions of Hispaniola, Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and western Cuba during the next few days and could lead to life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. 4. The system is forecast to approach the northern Gulf Coast late this week as a hurricane. While there is large uncertainty in the track and intensity forecasts at these time ranges, there is a risk of dangerous storm surge, wind, and rainfall hazards along the coast from Louisiana to the western Florida Panhandle. Residents in these areas should monitor the progress of the system and check for updates to the forecast during the week. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0300Z 17.0N 77.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 05/1200Z 17.4N 78.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 06/0000Z 18.3N 79.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 06/1200Z 20.0N 81.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 07/0000Z 22.2N 84.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 07/1200Z 24.1N 87.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 08/0000Z 25.4N 88.8W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 09/0000Z 27.2N 90.4W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 10/0000Z 30.0N 89.9W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

Interesting disco tonight Tropical Storm Gamma Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL252020 1000 PM CDT Sun Oct 04 2020 Gamma has moved much farther northeast than previously anticipated. With little in the way of low or mid-level large-scale steering flow currently in place, it seems likely that upper-level southwesterlies, also responsible for the shear affecting the tropical storm, are causing this recent northeastward motion. This may be either through reformations of the center closer to the convection or a direct contribution to the net steering. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is currently investigating Gamma and so far has found max SFMR winds of 47 kt but flight level winds of only 45 kt. Given the data so far, there is no indication that Gamma is any stronger than the 50 kt intensity, but it seems prudent to let the plane finish its pattern before lowering the winds at this time. Gamma's future track is highly uncertain. The track guidance spread is much higher than usual, and confidence in the forecast is accordingly low. Most of the global models indicate that Gamma will soon begin moving generally west-southwestward as a mid-level ridge briefly builds over the eastern and central Gulf of Mexico. Unfortunately, there is little agreement on exactly when this will happen or how fast Gamma will move once it turns. After about 48 h, Gamma could interact with Tropical Depression Twenty-Six, which is forecast to move over the northwestern Caribbean Sea at that time. Current dynamical models are notoriously bad at forecasting such interactions, but if the two systems do interact it will likely cause Gamma to move inland over the Yucatan. Whether such an interaction occurs or not, continued shear and proximity to land should cause the tropical storm to gradually weaken, and Gamma could dissipate if it moves over land (and stays there) in a few days, as shown by the GFS. The ECMWF shows the vortex remaining over water but dissipating nonetheless, while a couple other global models maintain the vortex longer and show it moving north over the central Gulf of Mexico late in the forecast period. The NHC forecast is a compromise between those solutions, showing a remnant low moving north over the southern Gulf of Mexico by day 5. In general, the NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous one, but slightly lower to account for the system potentially moving inland. Due to the uncertainty in the forecast at this time, future advisories may feature larger than normal changes to the track or intensity forecast. It is also worth noting that several dynamical model trackers appear to lose Gamma and jump to tracking Tropical Depression Twenty-Six when it reaches the Gulf of Mexico, resulting in unrealistic depictions of the intensity and track forecasts. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Gamma is expected to produce heavy rainfall for several days over portions of southeastern Mexico, the Yucatan Peninsula, Central America, and far western Cuba. This rainfall could result in life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides, particularly in the mountainous regions of southeastern Mexico and Central America. 2. Even though Gamma is just offshore, tropical storm conditions are likely along portions of the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula on Monday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0300Z 22.8N 87.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 05/1200Z 22.7N 87.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 06/0000Z 22.3N 88.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 06/1200Z 21.8N 89.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 07/0000Z 21.3N 90.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 07/1200Z 20.3N 90.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 08/0000Z 20.2N 90.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 96H 09/0000Z 22.0N 90.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER 120H 10/0000Z 24.0N 91.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Zelinsky

Tropical Storm Gamma Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL252020 1000 PM CDT Fri Oct 02 2020 A few hours ago, the Air Force Hurricane Hunters found maximum winds of around 35 kt in the northeastern quadrant of the cyclone, which was the reason why it was upgraded to Tropical Storm Gamma. Since then, there have been no stronger winds reported so the initial intensity remains 35 kt. The minimum pressure estimated by the aircraft is quite low at 998 mb, so it seems likely that the winds will increase soon. The storm also has better banding features compared to hours ago and deep convection has also been persisting near the center. Fixes from the aircraft indicate that Gamma has jogged to the left recently, but smoothing through the short-term jog suggests an initial motion of 310/8 kt. The tropical storm is expected to remain on the western periphery of a subtropical high during the next couple of days, and that should cause the storm to move slowly northwestward during that time period. This track should take Gamma across the northern Yucatan Peninsula and perhaps over the extreme south-central Gulf of Mexico this weekend. By early next week, a mid-level ridge is expected to build to the north of the storm while another low pressure area is forecast to develop to the east of Gamma. This change in the steering pattern is expected to cause the storm to make a sharp left turn toward the Bay of Campeche, but continue to move at a fairly slow forward speed. The models have shifted well to the south from 48-120 hours this cycle, and the NHC track forecast has been adjusted in that direction. Despite the shift, most of the reliable models are south of the new official track forecast, and future southward adjustments could be necessary. Environmental conditions appear generally favorable for additional strengthening until the cyclone reaches the Yucatan Peninsula on Saturday, and the NHC intensity forecast shows a slightly higher landfall intensity there. Once the system moves over the Yucatan Peninsula and the extreme southern Gulf of Mexico, the combination of land interaction, an increase in shear, and drier air should limit the amount of strengthening into next week. At this point, no model shows Gamma becoming a hurricane, and the NHC intensity forecast shows little change in strength for much of the forecast period. The biggest threat from this large and slow-moving storm is the the potential for heavy rainfall and flooding, particularly near and over mountainous terrain. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Gamma is expected to produce heavy rainfall that could result in life-threatening flash flooding over portions of the Yucatan Peninsula, far western Cuba and well away from the center in the Mexican states of Campeche, Tabasco, and northern Chiapas. 2. Gamma is forecast to bring tropical storm conditions to portions of the Yucatan Peninsula on Saturday, where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0300Z 19.1N 86.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 03/1200Z 19.8N 86.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 04/0000Z 20.8N 87.6W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 36H 04/1200Z 21.6N 88.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 48H 05/0000Z 22.0N 88.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 05/1200Z 21.9N 88.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 06/0000Z 21.7N 90.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 07/0000Z 21.0N 91.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 08/0000Z 20.3N 92.8W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

BULLETIN Tropical Storm Gamma Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL252020 1000 PM CDT Fri Oct 02 2020 ...GAMMA FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN BEFORE LANDFALL IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TOMORROW... ...HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN THREAT... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.1N 86.1W ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM SSE OF COZUMEL MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Punta Herrero to Cabo Catoche Mexico A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * South of Punta Herrero to Puerto Costa Maya Mexico * West of Cabo Catoche to Dzilam Mexico A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gamma was located near latitude 19.1 North, longitude 86.1 West. Gamma is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A slower northwestward motion is expected during the next couple of days, followed by a turn to the west or west-southwest. On the forecast track, the center of Gamma should be near the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is expected before Gamma moves inland over the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula on Saturday. After landfall, slight weakening or little change in strength is expected. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters is 998 mb (29.47 inches).

You guys always have the best gifs/images I know you guys kept the toaster of failure that I think Forky made up? Along with his salad shooter of success?

Too bad clouds and showers will block our view tonight

I'm guessing that's supposed to be a blizzard sounding?

DCA +1.4 NYC +1.2 BOS +0.7 ORD +1.1 ATL +1.9 IAH +0.8 DEN +2.0 PHX +3.9 SEA +2.7

BWI: November 1st IAD: October 26th DCA: November 11th RIC November 4th TB: Warmest October Temperature: 78°F

Washington Football Team is in 1st place in the NFC East through Week 3

TT has it stop at 384 for tonight's 00z run... but you can scroll down to 840 hours apparently

I believe in the WD index that I believe @Bob Chill made up

Why then do the stories only mention 2 deaths, the 2 sisters on UMD campus and not him? Unless its a different tornado then talked about below in the links? https://www.tornadotalk.com/college-park-md-f3-tornado-september-24-2001/ https://www.baltimoresun.com/bal-te.md.storm25sep25-story.html https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tornado_outbreak_of_September_24,_2001

Hmmmmm... from this mornings LWX AFD:

Tiebreaker of 780 degrees?

More counties got added to the frost advisory earlier this evening URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 821 PM EDT Sat Sep 19 2020 MDZ003-VAZ027-028-030-031-WVZ052-053-200830- /O.EXB.KLWX.FR.Y.0006.200920T0600Z-200920T1400Z/ Washington-Shenandoah-Frederick VA-Warren-Clarke-Berkeley- Jefferson- Including the cities of Hagerstown, Strasburg, Woodstock, Mount Jackson, New Market, Winchester, Front Royal, Berryville, Martinsburg, Charles Town, and Shepherdstown 821 PM EDT Sat Sep 19 2020 ...FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EDT SUNDAY... * WHAT...Temperatures as low as 35 will result in frost formation. * WHERE...In Maryland, Washington County. In Virginia, Shenandoah, Frederick VA, Warren and Clarke Counties. In West Virginia, Berkeley and Jefferson Counties. * WHEN...From 2 AM to 10 AM EDT Sunday. * IMPACTS...Frost could kill sensitive outdoor vegetation if left uncovered. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Temperatures will dip into the middle 30s overnight in the advisory area leading to widespread frost especially in sheltered valleys.

Saw on FB that this is the coldest September since 2000?

It begins URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 137 PM EDT Sat Sep 19 2020 MDZ501-502-VAZ503-504-WVZ050-051-055-501>506-200230- /O.NEW.KLWX.FR.Y.0006.200920T0600Z-200920T1200Z/ Extreme Western Allegany-Central and Eastern Allegany- Western Highland-Eastern Highland-Hampshire-Morgan-Hardy- Western Grant-Eastern Grant-Western Mineral-Eastern Mineral- Western Pendleton-Eastern Pendleton- Including the cities of Frostburg, Cumberland, Hightown, Monterey, Romney, Paw Paw, Moorefield, Bayard, Mount Storm, Petersburg, Elk Garden, Antioch, Keyser, New Creek, Ridgeville, Russelldale, Headsville, Fort Ashby, Riverton, Brandywine, Franklin, Oak Flat, Ruddle, and Sugar Grove 137 PM EDT Sat Sep 19 2020 ...FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY... * WHAT...Temperatures as low as 35 will result in frost formation. * WHERE...Portions of western Maryland, western Virginia and eastern and panhandle West Virginia. * WHEN...From 2 AM to 8 AM EDT Sunday. * IMPACTS...Frost could kill sensitive outdoor vegetation if left uncovered. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Temperatures will dip into the middle 30s overnight in the advisory area leading to widespread frost especially in sheltered valleys.

Wave coming off Africa early next week in the 2pm TWO has been reduced to 0/0 and no development expected