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Tropical Storm Epsilon Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL272020 500 AM AST Tue Oct 20 2020 Epsilon continues to have a non-standard appearance in satellite imagery this morning. While an area of convection is near and over the center, the center is also near the western end of a baroclinic zone, and that is giving the storm the look of a occluded extratropical low. In addition, water vapor and air mass imagery indicate that an upper-level trough is close to the system in the southwestern semicircle. Satellite intensity estimates have not changed significantly since the last advisory, so the initial intensity is unchanged at 40 kt. Epsilon remains a large cyclone with gale-force or tropical-storm-force winds extending outward more than 250 nmi in the northern semicircle. The center has drifted eastward since the last advisory, with the initial motion a somewhat uncertain 075/3. A northward to northwestward motion is expected to begin shortly as Epsilon becomes embedded in a large mid-level low over the central Atlantic. Later today, a mid-level ridge is forecast to build to the north and east of the cyclone, forcing Epsilon generally toward the northwest through about 72 h. After that time, a deep-layer trough and associated frontal system moving eastward into the western Atlantic should cause the cyclone to recurve to the northeast at an increasing forward speed. The guidance is in good agreement with the scenario, and the new forecast track, which has only minor adjustments from the previous track, lies near the various consensus models. On the forecast track, Epsilon should make its closest approach to Bermuda on Friday. There are several conflicting factors in the intensity forecast. First, while the cyclone is expected to move over relatively warm sea surface temperatures, the oceanic heat content along the forecast track drops to low levels after 36 h. Second, while the overall shear is forecast to be light to moderate through the forecast period, Epsilon is interacting with the aforementioned upper-level trough, and the global models suggest it will interact with another trough around the 72 h point. These troughs should provide upper-level divergence to aid strengthening, but also may feed cool and dry air into the cyclone, which would be a negative factor. The intensity guidance continues to show gradual strengthening despite the negative factors, with the global models showing fairy low central pressures during the 72-120 h period. Based on this, the intensity forecast continues to call for Epsilon to become a hurricane, and the new forecast has only minor tweaks from the previous forecast. Extratropical transition will likely be underway by 120 h, but likely will not finish until after the end of the forecast period. Key Message: 1. Epsilon is forecast to be at or near hurricane strength when it approaches Bermuda late this week. While it is too soon to determine the exact details of Epsilon's track and intensity near the island, there is a risk of direct impacts from wind, rainfall, and storm surge on Bermuda, and interests there should closely monitor the progress of Epsilon. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/0900Z 25.6N 54.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 20/1800Z 26.6N 55.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 21/0600Z 27.8N 57.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 21/1800Z 28.5N 59.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 22/0600Z 29.4N 60.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 22/1800Z 30.6N 60.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 23/0600Z 31.6N 61.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 24/0600Z 33.5N 62.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 25/0600Z 38.0N 58.0W 70 KT 80 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven

BULLETIN Tropical Storm Epsilon Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL272020 500 AM AST Tue Oct 20 2020 ...EPSILON DRIFTING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.6N 54.7W ABOUT 765 MI...1230 KM SE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 75 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warning in effect. Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of Epsilon. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Epsilon was located near latitude 25.6 North, longitude 54.7 West. Epsilon is moving toward the east-northeast near 3 mph (6 km/h). A turn toward the north and northwest is expected later today, with a general northwestward motion expected through Thursday. On the forecast track, Epsilon is forecast to approach Bermuda on Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is expected during the next couple of days, and Epsilon is forecast to be at or near hurricane strength by Wednesday night or Thursday morning. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 275 miles (445 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Large swells generated by Epsilon are expected to affect Bermuda for the next several days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

Interesting... did not know this was coming https://www.weather.gov/lwx/GarrettCecilTransfer

Yay another weak STD/STS coming soon SE of Bermuda... looks like it will park itself there for a while and not do much Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Sun Oct 18 2020 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a non-tropical low pressure system located about 500 miles east-southeast of Bermuda have not become significantly better organized over the past several hours. Gradual development is expected, and a subtropical depression or storm is very likely to form during the next day or two while the low meanders well to the southeast of Bermuda. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent. 2. A broad area of low pressure is expected to form in a few days over the southwestern Caribbean Sea. Some gradual development of this system will be possible through the middle of next week while it moves slowly northward or north-northwestward over the western Caribbean Sea. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. Forecaster Pasch

https://www.noaa.gov/media-release/us-winter-outlook-cooler-north-warmer-south-with-ongoing-la-nina

Well this sucks for me down here.. but perhaps you all can still cash in some? https://www.noaa.gov/media-release/us-winter-outlook-cooler-north-warmer-south-with-ongoing-la-nina

Hmmm... perfect timing with a 1035 HP in tandem in Quebec... morning snow it is

LWX in their afternoon AFD talked about it too

00z GFS decided to fix itself lol... now shows 1-2" for the region

00z NAM twins pretty wet for the region... 1-3" for all with isolated 4" showing up on 3k NAM

Boyd signed with the Maple Leafs FWIW Doesn't sound like it after you guys signed Van Riemsdyk to a one year 800K deal -- https://www.prohockeyrumors.com/2020/10/washington-capitals-sign-trevor-van-riemsdyk.html

Both NAMs show 1-3" of rain for many next 60-84 hours... though 00z 12km NAM has some 3-4" areas since there is more rain during the day on Monday after the 3km NAM run ends ETA: 00z GFS is not as enthusiastic as the NAM twins through 84... most of the region gets between an inch of rain to around 1.5" along the BR

I know you need that backup but did you see Schultz this past postseason against MTL? His defense was atrocious and he was non-existent on offense. Perhaps you guys get lucky and he reverts back to his 2016 or 2017 season stats... but that's an awful contract signing IMO... now you have no money left to sign anyone else in FA

@Chris78 @nw baltimore wx @nj2va Seriously? Signing former Penguin Schultz to a 2 year deal worth $4M AAV? Good luck with that.... along with having no more cap room -- https://www.prohockeyrumors.com/2020/10/washington-capitals-agree-to-terms-with-justin-schultz.html Guess RFA Siegenthaler is gone then

Hurricane Delta Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020 400 AM CDT Thu Oct 08 2020 Satellite images indicate that Delta remains a well organized hurricane with a central dense overcast feature and curved bands beyond that. There is still no indication of an eye, however, in geostationary satellite images. The Air Force Hurricane Hunters were in Delta a few hours ago and toward the end of that mission, they reported maximum flight-level winds of 102 kt and SFMR winds of 77 kt. Based on a blend of this data, the initial intensity was increased to 85 kt at 0600 UTC. Since the cyclone appears to be generally steady in strength since that time, the wind speed is held at that value. Both the NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunters will be investigating Delta later today, and that data will help us assess its strength and structure. The track forecast reasoning is unchanged. Delta is currently moving northwestward at 13 kt on the southwestern periphery of an Atlantic subtropical ridge. The western portion of the ridge is expected to weaken later today as a trough moves eastward across the south-central United States. This change in the steering pattern should cause Delta to turn northward by late tonight and north-northeastward by Friday night. This motion should take the core of the hurricane to the Louisiana coast in a little more than 36 hours (sometime Friday afternoon or evening). After landfall, a turn to the northeast is forecast as a larger trough approaches Delta from the west. The models are in very good agreement, and the NHC track forecast is just an update of the previous one. Delta is expected to continue gradually strengthening during the next 24 hours while it remains over warm deep waters and in an environment of low wind shear and a high amount of moisture. Based on these favorable environmental conditions and the trend in the models, Delta is forecast to regain major hurricane status by tonight. Just prior to making landfall, the cyclone is forecast to level off in strength or weaken slightly as it moves over the cooler shelf waters and into somewhat less favorable atmospheric conditions. Rapid weakening is forecast after Delta moves inland. The intensity models are in fairly good agreement, and the NHC intensity forecast lies near the middle of the guidance envelope. It should be noted that the NHC 1-2 day intensity forecasts are subject to errors of around 1 Saffir-Simpson category. The aircraft and fairly recent scatterometer data indicate that Delta is gradually growing in size. This trend is expected to continue as Delta approaches the Louisiana coast. The NHC wind radii forecast follows a consensus of the global and hurricane regional models. Key Messages: 1. Delta is expected to grow in size as it approaches the northern Gulf Coast, where life-threatening storm surge and dangerous hurricane-force winds are likely beginning Friday, particularly for portions of the Louisiana coast. Storm Surge and Hurricane Warnings are in effect, and residents in these areas should follow advice given by local officials and rush preparedness actions to completion. 2. Significant flash, urban, small stream and minor to isolated moderate river flooding is likely Friday and Saturday from portions of the central Gulf Coast into portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley. As Delta moves farther inland, heavy rainfall is expected in the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic this weekend. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0900Z 23.4N 91.8W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 08/1800Z 24.6N 93.0W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 09/0600Z 26.4N 93.7W 100 KT 115 MPH 36H 09/1800Z 28.8N 93.4W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 10/0600Z 31.3N 92.4W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND 60H 10/1800Z 33.3N 90.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 72H 11/0600Z 34.6N 89.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 12/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

BULLETIN Hurricane Delta Advisory Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020 400 AM CDT Thu Oct 08 2020 ...DELTA MOVING NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO... ...HURRICANE CONDITIONS AND LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE EXPECTED TO BEGIN ALONG PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST ON FRIDAY... SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.4N 91.8W ABOUT 450 MI...725 KM SSE OF CAMERON LOUISIANA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB...28.74 INCHES

Tonights GFS was the lulz for the mountains into SW VA

I am Oh wait... when does the EURO come out again? 2am? Shoot...

Hurricane Delta Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020 1000 PM CDT Wed Oct 07 2020 Observations from an Air Force Reserve Unit Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Delta is gradually strengthening while it moves over the open waters of the south-central Gulf of Mexico. Based on a blend of adjusted flight-level and SFMR wind measurements from the plane, the current intensity is set at 80 kt. The cloud pattern of the hurricane continues to become better organized on satellite images, with a growing Central Dense Overcast, and convective banding features becoming better defined, particularly over the northern semicircle of the circulation. Additional intensification is likely while Delta moves through a favorable environment during the next day or so, and the official forecast is fairly close to the corrected consensus guidance, HCCA. When the system moves into the northern Gulf, a decrease in oceanic heat content, drier mid-tropospheric air, and increased vertical shear should cause at least slow weakening. The NHC intensity forecast is above the numerical guidance in 36-48 hours. It should be noted that 1-2 day tropical cyclone intensity forecasts are subject to errors of around 1 Saffir-Simpson category. The global models show a further increase in the size of the hurricane while it moves into the northern Gulf. The official wind radii forecasts are based on a consensus of these model predictions. The latest center fixes from the Hurricane Hunters show a west-northwestward motion, at about 300/15 kt. Delta should turn toward the north-northwest and north over the next 36 hours or so while moving around the western periphery of a subtropical high pressure system centered over Florida. When the hurricane moves into the northern Gulf of Mexico on Friday, Delta should turn toward the north-northeast on the southeastern side of a mid-tropospheric shortwave over the southern United States. The official track forecast is close to both the simple and corrected dynamical model consensus predictions, TVCA and HCCA, respectively. These objective aids are in close agreement with one another. Based on the official forecast, it is time to issue storm surge and hurricane warnings for a portion of the northern Gulf of Mexico coast. Key Messages: 1. Delta is expected to grow in size as it approaches the northern Gulf Coast, where life-threatening storm surge and dangerous hurricane-force winds are likely beginning Friday, particularly for portions of the Louisiana coast. Storm Surge and Hurricane Warnings are in effect, and residents in these areas should follow advice given by local officials and rush preparedness actions to completion. 2. Flash, urban, small stream and minor to isolated moderate river flooding is likely Friday and Saturday from portions of the central Gulf Coast into portions of the Lower to Middle Mississippi Valley. As Delta moves farther inland, additional heavy rainfall is expected in the Ohio Valley and Mid Atlantic this weekend. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0300Z 22.5N 90.9W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 08/1200Z 23.7N 92.2W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 09/0000Z 25.4N 93.4W 105 KT 120 MPH 36H 09/1200Z 27.5N 93.5W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 10/0000Z 30.0N 92.7W 85 KT 100 MPH 60H 10/1200Z 32.4N 91.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 72H 11/0000Z 34.2N 89.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 12/0000Z 37.5N 85.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED

BULLETIN Hurricane Delta Advisory Number 14...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020 1000 PM CDT Wed Oct 07 2020 Corrected to remove Mobile Bay from the Storm Surge Warning area ...STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE WARNINGS ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.5N 90.9W ABOUT 525 MI...845 KM SSE OF CAMERON LOUISIANA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB...28.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Storm Surge Warning has been issued from Sabine Pass to Ocean Springs, Mississippi, including Calcasieu Lake, Vermilion Bay, Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Lake Borgne. A Hurricane Warning has been issued for the northern Gulf of Mexico coast from east of Sabine Pass to Morgan City, Louisiana. A Tropical Storm Warning has also been issued for the northern Gulf of Mexico coast from San Luis Pass, Texas to Sabine Pass, and east of Morgan City, Louisiana to the mouth of the Pearl River, including New Orleans, Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas. The Storm Surge Watch has been discontinued from the Mississippi/Alabama border to the Alabama/Florida border, including Mobile Bay. The government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning from Rio Lagartos to Dzilam, Mexico. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Sabine Pass to Ocean Springs, Mississippi including Calcasieu Lake, Vermilion Bay, Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Lake Borgne A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * High Island, TX to Sabine Pass * East of Ocean Springs, Mississippi to the Mississippi/Alabama border A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * East of Sabine Pass to Morgan City, Louisiana A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * San Luis Pass, Texas to Sabine Pass * East of Morgan City, Louisiana to the mouth of the Pearl River, including New Orleans * Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * East of the mouth of the Pearl River to Bay St. Louis Mississippi

@Chris78 @nj2va @nw baltimore wx Dillion re-signs with the Capitals... 4 year deal worth $3.9 mil AAV... prob cause of this: And sources say Capitals will be signing Lundqvist -- https://novacapsfans.com/2020/10/06/report-ufa-henrik-lundqvist-will-sign-with-capitals-when-market-opens-friday/

Good writeup by Pasch Hurricane Delta Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020 1000 PM CDT Tue Oct 06 2020 Observations from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft and conventional and microwave satellite imagery indicate that Delta has not intensified since earlier today. The central pressure has risen somewhat and the current intensity estimate, 115 kt, is probably generous based on flight-level and SFMR-observed surface winds from the NOAA plane. Although the hurricane continues to have very deep convection near and over the center, the cloud pattern lacks well-defined banding features, and an eye is not evident on either geostationary or polar-orbiting satellite images. Surveillance data from the NOAA G-IV aircraft suggest that Delta's circulation does not extend as markedly into the upper troposphere as one would expect for a major hurricane. Given the current state of the system, not much strengthening seems likely before the center reaches northeastern Yucatan tomorrow morning. Some weakening is likely due to the interaction with land during the next 12-18 hours. Re-intensification over the southern Gulf of Mexico is still expected, but when Delta reaches the northern Gulf, lower oceanic heat content is likely to cause at least slight weakening. The official intensity forecast is somewhat above most of the model guidance, but not much different from the regional hurricane models, HWRF and HMON, over the northern Gulf. Fixes from the aircraft indicate a continued west-northwestward motion at just a slightly slower forward speed, 300/14 kt. The track forecast reasoning is basically unchanged from earlier today. Delta should move along and around the southwestern and western periphery of a mid-tropospheric anticyclone centered just east of Florida for the next couple of days. Around 72 hours, the flow ahead of a shortwave trough over the south-central United States should cause the tropical cyclone to turn north-northeastward and move across the central Gulf coast late Friday or early Saturday. The official track forecast remains close to the dynamical model consensus, TVCA. Key Messages: 1. Life-threatening storm surge and potentially catastrophic wind damage are expected within portions of the northern Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico beginning tonight. All preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. 2. Heavy rainfall will affect portions of the Cayman Islands, western Cuba and the northern Yucatan Peninsula through midweek. This rainfall could lead to significant flash flooding and mudslides. The potential for heavy rain, flash and possible minor river flooding will increase across portions of the central Gulf Coast, Tennessee Valley, and southeastern United States as Delta moves inland later this week. 3. There is an increasing likelihood of life-threatening storm surge and dangerous hurricane-force winds, especially along the coasts of Louisiana and Mississippi, beginning on Friday. Residents in these areas should ensure they have their hurricane plan in place and follow advice given by local officials. Storm surge and hurricane watches will likely be issued for portions of the northern Gulf Coast on Wednesday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0300Z 19.5N 85.1W 115 KT 130 MPH 12H 07/1200Z 20.9N 87.1W 115 KT 130 MPH...INLAND 24H 08/0000Z 22.3N 89.8W 105 KT 120 MPH...OVER WATER 36H 08/1200Z 23.6N 91.7W 110 KT 125 MPH 48H 09/0000Z 25.0N 92.7W 115 KT 130 MPH 60H 09/1200Z 26.8N 92.8W 115 KT 130 MPH 72H 10/0000Z 29.0N 92.2W 110 KT 125 MPH 96H 11/0000Z 33.0N 89.8W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 120H 12/0000Z 36.0N 86.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Pasch

Still Cat 4 at 11 BULLETIN Hurricane Delta Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020 1000 PM CDT Tue Oct 06 2020 ...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE DELTA CONTINUES HEADING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... ...EXPECTED TO BRING A LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND EXTREME WINDS... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.5N 85.1W ABOUT 135 MI...220 KM ESE OF COZUMEL MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES

Interesting statement i bolded in the 5am disco from Blake Hurricane Delta Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020 500 AM EDT Tue Oct 06 2020 Delta has maintained a very deep central dense overcast during the past several hours, with overshooting cloud-top temperatures to -90C, and perhaps hints of an eye trying to emerge. On the last pass through the center, the Air Force plane reported a 4-mb pressure fall in one hour to 968 mb, with believable SFMR values of 80-85 kt. Thus, the initial wind speed is set to 85 kt. The hurricane is in the midst of a very impressive rapid intensification episode, having strengthened over 50 kt during the past 24 hours. I honestly don't see much that will stop it until it reaches Yucatan, due to low vertical wind shear, high deep-layer moisture, and the very warm and deep waters of the northwestern Caribbean. This is also supported by SHIPS rapid intensification probabilities that are well above 50 percent for most categories. Thus, the intensity forecast is raised to 115 kt near Yucatan landfall, closest to the HWRF forecast model, which has been a good performer this year, especially after ingesting NOAA radar data. Some weakening is expected due to land interaction, but conditions look ripe for re-intensification over the Gulf of Mexico. Almost all the guidance is higher, now showing Delta reaching category 4 status in the 2-to-3 day time frame, and the new NHC intensity forecast reflects this likelihood. However, an increase in southwesterly shear and cooler shelf waters near the northern Gulf coast should promote weakening, and little change has been made to the intensity forecast near landfall. Delta is moving much faster this morning to the west-northwest, with the latest estimates at about 13 kt. A strengthening mid-level ridge across Florida should steer the hurricane to the west-northwest or northwest during the next couple of days. Likely because of the deterioration of Gamma, model guidance is showing less poleward motion before Yucatan, and the official track is shifted to the west for the first day or so. Over the Gulf of Mexico, Delta should slow down and turn northward ahead of a trough moving eastward across Texas in a few days. Model guidance has again shifted westward, like the last cycle, and the official forecast is trended in that direction. However, it remains slightly east of the model consensus, due to a notable westward bias in some of the guidance during this hurricane season. Users are reminded to not focus on the details of the track or intensity forecasts, as the average 4-day track error is around 150 miles and the average 4-day intensity error is close to 15 mph. Key Messages: 1. Extremely dangerous storm surge and hurricane conditions are expected within portions of the northern Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico beginning tonight, and a Hurricane Warning is in effect. 2. Heavy rainfall will affect portions of the Cayman Islands, western Cuba and the northern Yucatan Peninsula through midweek. This rainfall could lead to significant flash flooding and mudslides. The potential for heavy rain and flash flooding will increase across portions of the central Gulf Coast, Tennessee Valley, and southeastern United States as Delta moves inland later this week. 3. Delta is forecast to approach the northern Gulf Coast late this week as a hurricane. While there is large uncertainty in the track and intensity forecasts, there is a significant risk of dangerous storm surge, wind, and rainfall hazards along the coast from Louisiana to the western Florida Panhandle beginning Thursday night or Friday. Residents in these areas should ensure they have their hurricane plan in place and monitor updates to the forecast of Delta. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0900Z 17.5N 81.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 06/1800Z 18.7N 83.1W 100 KT 115 MPH 24H 07/0600Z 20.4N 85.8W 115 KT 130 MPH 36H 07/1800Z 21.8N 88.5W 105 KT 120 MPH 48H 08/0600Z 23.0N 90.4W 110 KT 125 MPH 60H 08/1800Z 24.2N 91.5W 115 KT 130 MPH 72H 09/0600Z 25.8N 92.0W 110 KT 125 MPH 96H 10/0600Z 29.8N 91.1W 85 KT 100 MPH...INLAND 120H 11/0600Z 34.0N 88.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Blake