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Subtropical Storm Theta Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL302020 300 AM GMT Tue Nov 10 2020 Over the past 12 h convection has slowly consolidated near the center of a non-tropical area of low pressure over the far northeast Atlantic. Earlier, there was a 2325 UTC ASCAT-B pass that showed that the low-level circulation had become more detached from the warm frontal boundary located to its northeast. In addition, the ASCAT pass showed that winds have increased to near 45 kt on the southeast portion of the circulation near where coldest convective cloud tops were located. Both a 2137 UTC SSMIS and 2324 UTC AMSU microwave pass showed convective banding under the cirrus canopy near where the highest winds were observed. However, water vapor satellite imagery still shows the presence of a broad upper-level low tangled up with the low-level circulation embedded in the convection. Therefore, Theta has been designated as a subtropical storm with maximum wind of 45 kt. Theta has been on a near due east heading over the last 12 h at 90/13 kt. Currently the cyclone is located south of a broad deep-layer longwave trough. This trough is expected to bypass the cyclone to the east and Theta will primarily be steered by southwesterly flow on the northern periphery of a mid-level ridge centered over the Cape Verde islands. This flow will steer Theta slowly to the east-northeast over the next 3-5 days. The track guidance is in good agreement with this solution, with only minor differences in across-track spread. There are somewhat larger differences in the along-track spread related to different forward motion, but the latest NHC track forecast elected to stay close to the track consensus at this time. Thetas structure has evolved from a frontal cyclone to a subtropical cyclone, though a frontal boundary remains nearby on the northeast side of the circulation. This boundary is expected to gradually dissipate and Theta is expected to fully transition to a tropical storm in 24 h as convection erodes the upper-level cyclonic flow overhead. The maximum sustained winds were increased slightly in the first 12 h of the forecast but are kept at 50 kt through 120 h which is on the high end of the intensity guidance. Theta is the 29th named storm in the record-breaking 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season, breaking the previous record of 28th named storms in 2005. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/0300Z 28.8N 40.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...SUBTROPICAL STORM 12H 10/1200Z 29.0N 38.6W 50 KT 60 MPH...SUBTROPICAL STORM 24H 11/0000Z 29.1N 36.3W 50 KT 60 MPH...TROPICAL STORM 36H 11/1200Z 29.5N 34.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 12/0000Z 30.0N 32.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 12/1200Z 30.5N 30.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 13/0000Z 31.0N 28.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 14/0000Z 32.2N 24.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 15/0000Z 33.3N 20.6W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Papin/Brown

STS Theta it is at 10

Doesn't look like much chance or time for Eta to become a hurricane again Tropical Storm Eta Discussion Number 39 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020 900 PM CST Mon Nov 09 2020 Eta's convective structure appears to be gradually becoming better organized this evening. The center is located near the northern edge of a band that wraps around the southeastern and southern portions of the circulation. Recent subjective Dvorak data T-numbers were 3.0, which still support an initial intensity of 45 kt. With Eta's structure gradually improving and a forecast for the cyclone to remain over SSTs of around 28C and in generally low vertical wind shear conditions, some re-strengthening is likely during the next 24-36 hours. Although the NHC intensity forecast shows Eta remaining just below hurricane strength, there is a possibility that the storm will briefly regain hurricane status over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico within the next day or so. By 48 hours, when the cyclone moves over the east-central Gulf of Mexico, increasing vertical wind shear and dry mid-level air are likely to result in weakening, and like the previous forecast, the new NHC forecast indicates that Eta could weaken to a tropical depression by the end of the period. Some of the global model guidance suggests that Eta could weaken even faster than indicated below after 72 hours. Recent satellite fixes indicate that Eta is moving southwestward but a little slower than before at around 8 kt. Eta should slow its forward progress overnight and then meander over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday as steering current collapse. In 36-48 hours, Eta should begin moving northward between a mid-level ridge over the western Atlantic and a broad trough over the central United States. After 72 hours, the spread in the guidance increases when Eta is expected to be weaker and be steered by the low-level flow. Most of the guidance shows a northwestward to northward motion at that time period but have varying forward speed. The NHC track shows a slow north-northwest motion late in the period to account for these differences. There is lower than normal confidence in the latter portion of the track forecast given the large spread in the guidance. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rainfall from Eta will continue across portions of Cuba, the Bahamas, and southern Florida and spread north into central Florida. Additional flash and urban flooding, especially across previously inundated areas, will be possible in South Florida tonight. Flash and urban flooding will also be possible for Cuba, the Bahamas and the remainder of southern Florida over the next several days. 2. Eta could approach the Florida Gulf Coast later this week as a tropical storm, and possibly bring impacts from rain, wind, and storm surge. Interests in this area should continue to monitor the progress of Eta and updates to the forecast this week. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/0300Z 23.2N 85.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 10/1200Z 22.8N 85.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 11/0000Z 23.4N 85.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 11/1200Z 24.6N 85.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 12/0000Z 25.8N 85.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 12/1200Z 26.6N 85.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 13/0000Z 27.0N 85.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 14/0000Z 27.7N 85.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 15/0000Z 29.0N 86.0W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown

Still 50mph at 10

Sounds fun... LWX AFD for Wed to Fri

So... 2 more upcoming? One in the Eastern Caribbean and another out in the NE Atlantic toward the Azores? Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 100 AM EST Mon Nov 9 2020 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Eta, located near Florida Bay. Shower activity associated with a non-tropical low pressure system located several hundred miles southwest of the Azores is showing some signs of organization. This system will likely gradually acquire subtropical or tropical characteristics this week, and a tropical or subtropical storm could develop within a few days while this system moves eastward or east-northeastward over the northeastern Atlantic Ocean. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medum...40 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent. A tropical wave is forecast to move over the central Caribbean Sea, where an area of low pressure could form in a couple of days. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for development, and a tropical depression could form late this week or over the weekend while the system moves slowly westward. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent. && Additional information on the central Atlanic low pressure area can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service...under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1 and WMO header FZNT01 KWBC. $$ Forecaster Blake

Tropical Storm Eta Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020 1100 PM EST Sun Nov 08 2020 ...ETA MAKES LANDFALL IN LOWER MATECUMBE KEY FLORIDA... Doppler radar data indicate that Eta has made landfall on Lower Matecumbe Key in the Florida Keys as a strong tropical storm with maximum winds estimated to be near 65 mph (100 km/h). A WeatherFlow station at Carysfort Reef Light in the Florida Keys recently reported a sustained wind of 52 mph (84 km/h) with a gust of 63 mph (101 km/h). Another Weatherflow station in Key Largo recently reported a wind gust of 53 mph (85 km/h). A wind gust of 47 mph (76 km/h) was measured at Homestead Air Force Base in Homestead, Florida. SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EST...0400 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.9N 80.7W ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM ENE OF MARATHON FLORIDA ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM ENE OF KEY WEST FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES $$ Forecaster Cangialosi/Blake

Last chance saloon on Wednesday for this years severe? From this morning's AFD:

New track is south of mainland FL and barely gets into the Keys

Tropical Depression Eta Discussion Number 25 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020 300 PM CST Fri Nov 06 2020 Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the center of Eta is elongated east-to-west with multiple vorticity centers present. The central pressure is near 1002 mb, and the maximum flight-level winds were 30-35 kt at 1500 ft. There were a few spot reports of 35-45 kt winds from the Stepped Frequency Microwave Radiometer, but these were in areas of heavy rain and their reliability is suspect. Based on these data, the initial intensity is kept at 30 kt. The aircraft data shows that the center is farther south than previously thought, and the initial motion is an uncertain 040/6 kt. There is no change to the previous track forecast philosophy. A developing mid- to upper-level trough over the Gulf of Mexico is expected to steer Eta northeastward for the next 48 h or so with an increase in forward speed. Between 48-72 h, the trough is forecast to become a closed low near south Florida and western Cuba, causing Eta to turn northwestward around and into the low. After 72 h, the merged system is likely to move slowly westward to northwestward. While the guidance is in good agreement on the synoptic evolution, there remain differences in the track forecast details in terms of both the heading and the forward speed, with the GFS-based guidance tending to be to the east and north of the UKMET/ECMWF/Canadian. In addition, the HWRF/HMON/Canadian are faster than the other guidance. The new forecast track overall is a little slower than the previous track, and due to the initial position the first 36 h have been shifted southward. Eta will move over the warm waters of the northwestern Caribbean during the next 48 h or so, and the upper-level divergence is forecast to be quite strong. This should allow some strengthening, although this is likely to be slowed by 20-30 kt of southwesterly vertical wind shear. The intensity forecast for this part of the cyclone's life is again similar to the previous forecast and lies near the bulk of the intensity guidance. Between 48-72 h , Eta may take on at least some subtropical cyclone characteristics as it merges with the mid- to upper-level low. The HWRF and HMON models still suggest the possibility that a tight inner wind core may develop, however, the guidance has trended weaker since this morning, and the new intensity forecast is above the bulk of the guidance. After 72 h, dry air entrainment is expected to cause the cyclone to weaken. The wind field of Eta is expected to increase in size during the next few days, and the cyclone will likely produce a large area of tropical-storm-force winds on its north side when it is near Cuba, the Florida Keys, and southern Florida. The new forecast track requires a Tropical Storm Warning for portions of Cuba at this time. Watches may be required for portions of south Florida and the Florida Keys tonight. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rainfall is diminishing across portions of Central America, although the threat of life-threatening flooding may continue, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain. Heavy rainfall from Eta will move into the Cayman islands and portions of Cuba, resulting in significant, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding. Flash flooding and urban flooding is also possible for Jamaica and southeast Mexico. 2. Tropical storm conditions are expected this weekend in portions of the Cayman Islands and Cuba, where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect. 3. There is an increasing risk of impacts from wind and flash and urban flooding due to heavy rainfall in portions of southern Florida, the Florida Keys, and portions of the Bahamas this weekend and early next week. Tropical Storm or Hurricane Watches will likely be issued for a portion of this area tonight. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/2100Z 17.3N 86.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 07/0600Z 18.2N 84.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 07/1800Z 19.4N 82.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 08/0600Z 20.8N 80.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 08/1800Z 22.5N 80.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 60H 09/0600Z 24.2N 80.6W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER 72H 09/1800Z 24.9N 81.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 10/1800Z 25.0N 84.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 11/1800Z 26.5N 85.5W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven

BULLETIN Tropical Depression Eta Advisory Number 25 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020 300 PM CST Fri Nov 06 2020 ...AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS THE CENTER OF ETA FARTHER TO THE SOUTH... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF CUBA... SUMMARY OF 300 PM CST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.3N 86.5W ABOUT 115 MI...180 KM E OF BELIZE CITY ABOUT 375 MI...600 KM WSW OF GRAND CAYMAN MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Government of Cuba has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the provinces of Camaguey, Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus, Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, and Matanzas. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The Cayman Islands * The Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus, Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, and Matanzas. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * The Cuban provinces of La Habana, Artemisa y Mayabeque, Pinar del Rio, and the Isle of Youth. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. The governments of Nicaragua and Honduras continue to issue warnings for heavy rain and flooding in those countries, and interests in those areas should continue to monitor the depression. Interests elsewhere in Cuba, the northwestern Bahamas, the Florida Keys, and southern Florida should monitor the progress of this system as Tropical Storm or Hurricane Watches could be required for some of these areas tonight or on Saturday. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

Tropical Depression Eta Discussion Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020 300 AM CST Thu Nov 05 2020 Eta has become very disorganized due to its interaction with the land mass of Central America, and may no longer have a surface circulation. Based on a few surface observations, the maximum winds are estimated to be around 25 kt over the water to the north of Honduras. Eta is likely to degenerate into a post-tropical low very soon, if it hasn't done so already. Since the low is predicted to move into the northwestern Caribbean Sea by tomorrow night, some restrengthening is forecast to begin by the weekend. However the expected broad nature of the cyclone and stronger vertical shear are likely to limit strengthening over the next several days. The official intensity forecast is similar to the latest model consensus. The center is extremely difficult to locate at this time, but based on continuity the initial motion is estimated to be 300/7 kt. Eta, or its post-tropical remnant low/trough, should continue to move over land today, and then turn northward tonight while moving along the eastern side of a broader gyre. This will take the system into the Gulf of Honduras and over the northwestern Caribbean Sea on Friday. A negatively-tilted 500-mb trough/low developing over the Gulf of Mexico should induce a generally northeastward motion for the next 2-3 days and take the cyclone across portions of Cuba in 3-4 days. Thereafter, the system is forecast to rotate cyclonically around the eastern side of the 500 mb low and turn northwestward to westward by the end of the forecast period. The official forecast is a blend of the latest GFS and ECMWF predictions, but leans toward the latter model. This track could take the system near or over portions of extreme southern Florida by late this weekend or early next week, but there is low confidence in the forecast, especially at 3-5 days. Key Messages: 1. Through Monday morning, heavy rainfall from Eta will lead to catastrophic, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding across portions of Central America, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain. Flash and river flooding is also possible across Jamaica, southeast Mexico, the Cayman Islands and western Cuba. 2. Eta is forecast to regain tropical storm strength over the northwestern Caribbean Sea late this week. Although the details of the future track and intensity of Eta are uncertain, there is an increasing risk of impacts from wind and rainfall in portions of Cuba, southern Florida and the Florida Keys this weekend and early next week. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0900Z 14.5N 87.0W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 05/1800Z 15.0N 87.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 06/0600Z 16.2N 87.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 06/1800Z 17.4N 86.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 48H 07/0600Z 18.5N 84.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 07/1800Z 19.6N 82.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 08/0600Z 21.0N 81.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 09/0600Z 23.5N 79.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 10/0600Z 24.5N 81.5W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch

Question -- if the LLC circulation gets disrupted by Central America, but the MLC returns over the waters, will it still be Eta? or a new TC entirely?

Question -- if a freeze warning was issued, doesn't that usually mean that the "growing season" is officially over for that county? Like I know there was a freeze warning for PW few days ago and they have a frost advisory tonight... just think it's a bit strange

Hurricane Eta Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020 400 AM EST Tue Nov 03 2020 Eta remains an extremely well-organized hurricane with a distinct eye embedded within cloud tops colder than -80C. Based on continuity from the earlier Hurricane Hunter observations and Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB, the current intensity estimate remains 130 kt. Images from the San Andres radar show at least one concentric eyewall, and this structure has likely stopped the rapid deepening process. Nonetheless, Eta is an extremely severe hurricane, capable of causing very high storm surges and catastrophic damage. After the center moves inland later today, rapid weakening is likely while the circulation interacts with land. The official forecast is similar to the Decay-SHIPS guidance, and shows the cyclone weakening to a depression by tomorrow. It is not certain that the surface circulation will survive after moving over Central America for the next 3 days or so. The official forecast shows the system, perhaps at first the upper-level remnant of Eta, emerging over the northwestern Caribbean Sea in the latter part of the forecast period. It should be noted that both the intensity and track at 4-5 days are highly uncertain at this time. The hurricane has slowed down and is now moving a little south of west or about 250/4 kt. This motion will take the center across the coast in the Hurricane Warning area very soon. A weak ridge to the north of Eta should cause the cyclone to move west to west-northwest, over Central America, during the next few days. By 96-120 hours, a trough developing over the Gulf of Mexico should cause the system to turn northward and northeastward but, as noted earlier, this future track is quite uncertain. Since Eta is likely to be a very slow-moving system after it makes landfall in Central America, torrential rains and inland flooding will be an extremely serious threat over the next few days. Key Messages: 1. Catastrophic wind damage is expected where Eta's eyewall moves onshore along the northeastern coast of Nicaragua this morning. Tropical-storm-force or greater winds are already occuring within the Hurricane Warning area in Nicaragua. A Tropical Storm Warning is also in effect for the northeastern coast of Honduras. 2. A catastrophic and life-threatening storm surge, along with destructive waves, are expected along portions of the northeastern coast of Nicaragua near and to the north of where the center makes landfall. Water levels could reach as high as 14 to 21 feet above normal tide levels in some parts of the hurricane warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should now be complete. 3. Through Friday evening, heavy rainfall from Eta will lead to catastrophic, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding across portions of Central America, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain. Flash and river flooding is also possible across Jamaica, southeast Mexico, El Salvador, southern Haiti, and the Cayman Islands. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0900Z 13.8N 83.1W 130 KT 150 MPH 12H 03/1800Z 13.8N 83.6W 110 KT 125 MPH...INLAND 24H 04/0600Z 13.8N 84.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 36H 04/1800Z 14.0N 85.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 48H 05/0600Z 14.5N 87.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 60H 05/1800Z 15.0N 88.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 06/0600Z 15.7N 89.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 07/0600Z 17.0N 88.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...OVER WATER 120H 08/0600Z 19.0N 83.5W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch

BULLETIN Hurricane Eta Advisory Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020 400 AM EST Tue Nov 03 2020 ...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE ETA VERY NEAR THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA... ...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, CATASTROPHIC WINDS, FLASH FLOODING, AND LANDSLIDES EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA... SUMMARY OF 400 AM EST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.8N 83.1W ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM SE OF PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 250 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...923 MB...27.26 INCHES

wow

BULLETIN Tropical Storm Eta Intermediate Advisory Number 6A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020 100 AM EST Mon Nov 02 2020 ...ETA NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH... ...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, DAMAGING WINDS, FLASH FLOODING, AND LANDSLIDES EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA... SUMMARY OF 100 AM EST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.9N 80.4W ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM E OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER ABOUT 210 MI...340 KM ENE OF PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES

It begins URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 229 AM EST Sun Nov 1 2020 WVZ501-505-012045- /O.NEW.KLWX.WW.Y.0010.201101T2100Z-201102T1200Z/ Western Grant-Western Pendleton- 229 AM EST Sun Nov 1 2020 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST MONDAY... * WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 4 inches. Winds gusting as high as 45 mph. * WHERE...Western Grant and Western Pendleton Counties. * WHEN...From 4 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EST Monday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the Monday morning commute. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Slow down and use caution while traveling. When venturing outside, watch your first few steps taken on steps, sidewalks, and driveways, which could be icy and slippery, increasing your risk of a fall and injury.

Tropical Storm Eta Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020 400 AM EST Sun Nov 01 2020 Eta has not become appreciably better organized over the past few hours. A large convective band is evident well to the east and northeast of the estimated center, but this band does not have much curvature at this time. A small burst of deep convection is occurring near or over the center, which is likely the early stages of the development of a Central Dense Overcast. Currently, there is a significant amount of lightning in the outer band but little lightning near the center. The intensity is held at 35 kt for this advisory, in agreement with Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB. Eta will be moving over very warm waters of SSTs above 29 deg C and in an environment of fairly light vertical shear. Therefore, strengthening is likely. The official forecast, like the previous ones, calls for the cyclone to become a hurricane before approaching Central America. There is also a possibility of rapid strengthening, as suggested by the SHIPS Rapid Intensification Index. The NHC intensity forecast is very similar to the latest corrected consensus prediction up to the expected landfall and follows the Decay-SHIPS guidance after that point. The center location is somewhat uncertain, and my best estimate of initial motion is about the same as before, or 275/13 kt. The track forecast reasoning has not changed significantly. A mid-level ridge to the north and northwest of Eta should cause a westward or west-southwestward motion for the next few days. This would take the cyclone inland over Central America in 72 hours or so. The official track forecast is similar to the previous one, and lies near the simple model consensus and a little north of the corrected consensus. Key Messages: 1. Eta is expected to strengthen to a hurricane early next week as it approaches the coast of Central America early Tuesday, and there is a risk of storm surge, hurricane-force winds, and heavy rainfall for portions of Nicaragua and Honduras, where Hurricane Watches have been issued. Hurricane warnings could be needed for portions of those areas later today. 2. Through Thursday afternoon, heavy rainfall from Eta may lead to life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain across portions of Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, the southern coast of Hispaniola, northern Honduras and northern Nicaragua. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/0900Z 15.2N 75.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 01/1800Z 15.3N 77.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 02/0600Z 15.3N 79.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 02/1800Z 15.1N 81.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 03/0600Z 14.7N 82.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 60H 03/1800Z 14.4N 83.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 04/0600Z 14.2N 83.7W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND 96H 05/0600Z 14.3N 85.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 120H 06/0600Z 15.0N 87.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Pasch

Not much change this morning BULLETIN Tropical Storm Eta Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020 400 AM EST Sun Nov 01 2020 ...ETA CONTINUES WESTWARD... ...EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN... SUMMARY OF 400 AM EST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.2N 75.7W ABOUT 205 MI...330 KM SSE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA ABOUT 500 MI...805 KM E OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB

Pretty cool to see LWX do this Public Information Statement...AMENDED National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1122 PM EDT Sat Oct 31 2020 ...GROWING SEASON ENDED FOR THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF NORTHERN VIRGINIA AND NORTH CENTRAL MARYLAND... Freezing temperatures were observed Saturday morning October 31st, 2020 across much of the Shenandoah Valley, as well as portions of northern Virginia and north central Maryland. Therefore, the growing season has ended in the following counties, and frost and freeze headlines will not be issued until Spring 2021. NEWLY ENDED Saturday, October 31: In Maryland... Carroll Frederick Western Howard Western Montgomery Northern Baltimore (added after further review at 11 PM update) In West Virginia... Jefferson. In Virginia... Augusta Central and Northern Virginia Blue Ridge Clarke Eastern and Western Loudoun Northern Fauquier Rockingham Page Rappahannock Warren Southern Fauquier (added after further review at 11 PM update) Culpeper (added after further review at 11 PM update) Nelson (added after further review at 11 PM update) PREVIOUSLY ENDED: In Maryland... Eastern and Western Allegany Washington. In West Virginia... Berkeley Eastern and Western Mineral Eastern and Western Grant Eastern and Western Pendleton Hampshire Hardy Morgan. In Virginia... Eastern and Western Highland County Frederick Shenandoah.

Sounds like ERC is coming soon per disco -- https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/jtwc.html WDPN31 PGTW 310300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 22W (GONI) WARNING NR 013// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUPER TYPHOON 22W (GONI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 454 NM EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A COMPACT, POWERFUL SYSTEM WITH A WELL DEFINED 7 NM EYE. WHILE STILL COMPACT IN NATURE IT HAS INCREASED IN SIZE OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE WELL DEFINED EYE FEATURE IN THE MSI LOOP. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 160 KTS IS FURTHER PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE AND IS HEDGED SLIGHTLY ABOVE MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T7.5 (155 KTS, PGTW AND RJTD) BASED ON RECENT ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T7.6 (158 KTS). ANALYSIS OF THE EYE WALL STRUCTURES IN SEVERAL MICROWAVE IMAGES SUGGESTS THAT AN EYE WALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE (ERC) IS IMMINENT. DESPITE THIS, THE OVERALL CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE, CLOUD TOP AND EYE TEMPERATURES ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT A WEAKENING PHASE, TYPICAL OF ERC, HAS NOT YET COMMENCED. STY GONI HAS CONTINUED TO TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED OVER SOUTHERN CHINA AND THROUGH AN OVERALL FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH VERY WARM (30 DEG CELSIUS) WATERS, LOW (10-15 KNOTS) VWS AND ROBUST RADIAL OUTFLOW. POLEWARD OUTFLOW REMAINS ESPECIALLY STRONG. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. B. STY GONI WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY SOUTHWESTWARD TO SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN OVERALL FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT, HOWEVER A GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THIS TIME DUE TO THE ERC AND, DECREASING POLEWARD OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE ONGOING REPOSITIONING OF THE STEERING RIDGE, AND A SMALL INCREASE IN VWS (15-20 KTS). STY GONI WILL THEN MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE COAST OF LUZON, EAST OF MANILA, BETWEEN TAU 24 AND TAU 36 AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE. AS THE SYSTEM TRANSITS ACROSS LUZON AND INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA, IT WILL FURTHER WEAKEN DUE TO TERRAIN INTERACTION TO AN INTENSITY OF 75 KTS BY TAU 48. AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS OVER THE SOUTH CHINA SEA BETWEEN TAU 48 AND TAU 72, IT WILL STEADILY WEAKEN TO AN INTENSITY OF 60 KTS DUE TO CONTINUED MODERATE TO HIGH (20-25 KTS) VWS. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THIS INITIAL PORTION OF THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK, WITH A TOTAL SPREAD IN ACROSS TRACK MODEL SOLUTIONS OF 150 NM AT TAU 72. SPECIFICALLY THE NAVGEM TRACK LIES NORTHWARD OF THE OTHER JTWC MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS MEMBERS. AS SUCH, THIS INITIAL PORTION OF THE JTWC FORECAST IS PLACED SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE JTWC MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE. C. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST, THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-LAYER STR POSITIONED TO THE NORTH THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST, AND MAKE A SECOND LANDFALL ALONG THE CENTRAL VIETNAM COAST BETWEEN TAU 96 AND TAU 120. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MODERATE VWS AND CONTINUED ENTRAINMENT OF DRY MID-LEVEL AIR. NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE HAS CONVERGED SINCE THE LAST FORECAST WITH ONLY NAVGEM PREDICTING A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK TOWARDS HAINAN. THE REMAINING MEMBERS OF THE JTWC MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AGREE WITH A WESTWARD TRACK DURING THIS TIME. AS SUCH THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS PLACED SOUTH OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH OVERALL FAIR CONFIDENCE TO OFFSET THE NORTHWESTWARD BIAS CONTRIBUTED BY THE NAVGEM TRACK.// NNNN

I'm gathering this wont be a US threat but more of a Central American threat

LWX AFD mentions 30s and 40s for highs on Monday with poss advisory criteria winds... so it going to be a chilly day