yoda

Mesoscale Discussion 1838 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 PM CDT Tue Oct 12 2021 Areas affected...Portions of southwest Kansas into northwest Oklahoma and far northeast Texas Panhandle Concerning...Outlook upgrade Valid 121929Z - 122000Z SUMMARY...An upgrade to Category 4/Moderate risk will be introduced in the 20Z Day 1 Convective Outlook to reflect a greater risk for strong tornadoes. DISCUSSION...The latest high-resolution/convection allowing model guidance consensus has been generally trending upward in the intensity and longevity of deep, moist convection over portions of the southern High Plains. Potential exists for multiple discrete/semi-discrete supercells to develop ahead of a Pacific front late this afternoon/evening. These storms are expected to progress eastward into an ambient environment characterized by very strong low-level shear, resulting in large, curved hodographs and effective SRH values exceeding 400 m2/s2, especially across portions of southwest KS/northwest OK/far northeast TX Panhandle. Here, potential exists for at least a few intense, cyclical tornadic supercells to develop, and a long-tracked tornado or two cannot be ruled out. As such, portions of the central Plains will be upgraded to Category 4/Moderate risk in the upcoming 20Z Day 1 Convective Outlook. ..Squitieri/Grams.. 10/12/2021 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...AMA...

MD out stating MOD risk coming for tornadoes on 20z OTLK https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1838.html

Backstrom to start the season on LTIR... so out for all of October

Large ENH for Day 3 as well from S NE into NW Oklahoma

About time lol

Strong in the Force were you

A small hatched tor prob appears on the 1730 Day 2 in S OK

10/30/30 on the new Day 2

Take it FWIW.

I think we'd all lose our minds if a 97-98 winter appeared. Yes I believe it was a super El Nino... but those temps... yikes

Blah... LWX AFD from this afternoon seems to suggest weekend could be terrible The pattern for Saturday remains uncertain at this time as it will be heavily dependent on a coastal low off the Carolina coast. Models have differing solution with the GFS keeping a strong high pressure / upper ridge over the NE US which prevents the coastal low from moving northward toward our region. On the other hand, the Euro is weaker with the high and allows the low to bring areas of 1 to 2 inches of precipitation to parts of our region. General trends have pushed precipitation to the late Saturday and into Sunday period with areas around and below DC experiencing the heaviest precipitation. The threat for flooding has increased especially if the coastal low shifts closer to the coast with flooding most likely to occur if the heaviest rain occurs over our metro areas. There is the possibility that our region remains mostly dry this weekend especially if the GFS solution comes true. Temperatures on Saturday will be slightly cooler in the 70s with overnight lows in upper 50s to lower 60s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Come Sunday, guidance continues to diverge on how it handles an upper level trough across the Eastern Seaboard. Guidance varies in developing an upper level low and a coastal low along a surface trough. The potential surface low is being monitored by the NHC for potential tropical development off the SE US coast (see nhc.noaa.gov for the latest). Regardless if this system officially becomes named a tropical system, heavy rain and gusty winds are possible Sunday mainly east of the Blue Ridge. Impacts are highly dependent on the track of the surface low, and considerable uncertainty remains. Regardless, if the low moves nearby, it should be out of the area by Sunday night with dry weather returning early next week as upper level ridging builds across the region.

Hmmm... LWX AFD from this afternoon: The pattern for Saturday remains uncertain at this time as it will be heavily dependent on a coastal low off the Carolina coast. Models have differing solution with the GFS keeping a strong high pressure / upper ridge over the NE US which prevents the coastal low from moving northward toward our region. On the other hand, the Euro is weaker with the high and allows the low to bring areas of 1 to 2 inches of precipitation to parts of our region. General trends have pushed precipitation to the late Saturday and into Sunday period with areas around and below DC experiencing the heaviest precipitation. The threat for flooding has increased especially if the coastal low shifts closer to the coast with flooding most likely to occur if the heaviest rain occurs over our metro areas. There is the possibility that our region remains mostly dry this weekend especially if the GFS solution comes true. Temperatures on Saturday will be slightly cooler in the 70s with overnight lows in upper 50s to lower 60s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Come Sunday, guidance continues to diverge on how it handles an upper level trough across the Eastern Seaboard. Guidance varies in developing an upper level low and a coastal low along a surface trough. The potential surface low is being monitored by the NHC for potential tropical development off the SE US coast (see nhc.noaa.gov for the latest). Regardless if this system officially becomes named a tropical system, heavy rain and gusty winds are possible Sunday mainly east of the Blue Ridge. Impacts are highly dependent on the track of the surface low, and considerable uncertainty remains. Regardless, if the low moves nearby, it should be out of the area by Sunday night with dry weather returning early next week as upper level ridging builds across the region.

DCA: 11/20 IAD: 10/26 BWI: 11/05 RIC: 11/17 TB: 2.04"

Saints next week... oh boy Then KC, GB, Denver, and then Tampa after bye week first week of November... good luck defense

A win is a win... I love some Heinicke... but geez our defense sucks

lolololololololol

This is what I think about the WFT

Did you try a heating pad?

Lol this team is garbage ETA: yeah that was pure luck for a TD

Nah, I'm thinking of becoming a Jets fan... or maybe a Lions fan

Even the 00z Euro suggests a +10 to +15 surface temp anomaly at Day 10... yuck

06z GFS was atrocious past Day 10

LWX has 60 to 70 POPS each day... plus from LWX AFD .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Main story in the extended will be potential for heavy rainfall sometime mid to late week. The latest 12Z deterministic guidance tends to support earlier 00/06Z ensemble trends of above normal moisture/precipitable water across the Mid-Atlantic. On Tuesday...a stalled frontal boundary across central Virginia into the Delmarva will keep a moist easterly flow into the area. Periods of rain especially east of the Blue Ridge are expected Tuesday into Wednesday. As upper low pressure drifts over the lower/middle Mississippi Valley Wednesday and Thursday, moisture continue to stream over the region...as surface high pressure over New England causes decent lower level moisture confluence into our region. This could lead to decent rainfall amounts.

Monday to Friday of next week looks terrible... rainy all week

Maryland being shown the door by Iowa tonight so far lol