yoda

Same. I'm looking towards next week (Tuesday in particular)... morning AFD discussed GEFS members showing 1000-2500 CAPE with some decent heat and humidity. Monday looks like a high shear/low instability event... though both EURO and GFS show 40-50 kts 0-6km shear, which isn't high shear, its more like optimal around here

Yay wind! URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 359 AM EDT Thu Apr 29 2021 MDZ003>006-008-011-014-503>508-VAZ028-030-031-505>508-WVZ051>053- 291600- /O.NEW.KLWX.HW.A.0002.210430T1500Z-210501T0900Z/ Washington-Frederick MD-Carroll-Northern Baltimore-Cecil- Southern Baltimore-Anne Arundel-Northwest Montgomery- Central and Southeast Montgomery-Northwest Howard- Central and Southeast Howard-Northwest Harford-Southeast Harford- Frederick VA-Warren-Clarke-Western Loudoun-Eastern Loudoun- Northern Virginia Blue Ridge-Central Virginia Blue Ridge-Morgan- Berkeley-Jefferson- Including the cities of Hagerstown, Frederick, Ballenger Creek, Eldersburg, Westminster, Reisterstown, Cockeysville, Elkton, Baltimore, Glen Burnie, Annapolis, Severn, South Gate, Severna Park, Arnold, Odenton, Germantown, Damascus, Bethesda, Rockville, Gaithersburg, Silver Spring, Lisbon, Columbia, Ellicott City, Jarrettsville, Aberdeen, Winchester, Front Royal, Berryville, Purcellville, Leesburg, Ashburn, Sterling, Big Meadows, Wintergreen, Paw Paw, Martinsburg, Charles Town, and Shepherdstown 359 AM EDT Thu Apr 29 2021 ...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT... * WHAT...Northwest winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 55 mph possible. * WHERE...Portions of central, north central, northeast and northern Maryland, central, northern and northwest Virginia and panhandle West Virginia. * WHEN...From Friday morning through late Friday night. * IMPACTS...Damaging winds could blow down trees and power lines. Widespread power outages are possible. Travel could be difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Strong wind gusts will arrive behind the cold front on Friday morning, and again Friday evening and into the night as a powerful system crosses the region.

Who is this Wizards team the past few weeks? Dominant tonight... Westbrook another triple Double as well

Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 829 PM CDT Wed Apr 28 2021 TXC013-019-029-091-259-325-493-290200- /O.CON.KEWX.SV.W.0067.000000T0000Z-210429T0200Z/ Medina TX-Bandera TX-Atascosa TX-Kendall TX-Wilson TX-Bexar TX- Comal TX- 829 PM CDT Wed Apr 28 2021 ...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT FOR EASTERN MEDINA...SOUTHEASTERN BANDERA...NORTHWESTERN ATASCOSA... SOUTHEASTERN KENDALL...WEST CENTRAL WILSON...BEXAR AND CENTRAL COMAL COUNTIES... At 829 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Lackland AFB, or near San Antonio, moving east at 45 mph. This is a very dangerous storm. HAZARD...Baseball size hail and 70 mph wind gusts. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be severely injured. Expect shattered windows, extensive damage to roofs, siding, and vehicles. Locations impacted include... San Antonio, Schertz, Universal City, Live Oak, Boerne, Selma, Devine, Castroville, Stinson Municipal Airport, San Antonio Int Airport, Randolph AFB, Canyon Lake, Leon Valley, Helotes, Fair Oaks Ranch, Kirby, Alamo Heights, Windcrest, Terrell Hills and Bulverde. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for south central Texas. This storm is producing destructive winds and large damaging hail. SEEK SHELTER NOW inside a sturdy structure and stay away from windows.

Report of 2" hail in Saginaw

New SWS for baseball sized hail and winds to 70mph for storm right over SA

STW for southern metro of OKC now too for golf ball sized hail

Storm out by Throckmorton warned for tennis to baseball sized hail ETA: looks like another one down by Uvdale too with tennis ball sized hail

Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 818 PM CDT Wed Apr 28 2021 TXC439-290200- /O.CON.KFWD.TO.W.0008.000000T0000Z-210429T0200Z/ Tarrant TX- 818 PM CDT Wed Apr 28 2021 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT FOR NORTHEASTERN TARRANT COUNTY... At 817 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located over Saginaw, moving east at 30 mph. This tornado will cross Business 287 in Saginaw shortly and approach I-35W near the Alliance Corridor in the next 15 minutes. Seek shelter now! HAZARD...Tornado and two inch hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely.

Not playing around in their latest SWS either

Tornado Warning and 2 inch hail with 70 mph wind gusts on the warnred storms in San Antonio

Its basically early May lol

Along with hail to 2"

10% tor contour added on 01z OTLK for S TX as well as hatched 30 wind

SPC issued a MD about it... ouch Mesoscale Discussion 0459 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0701 PM CDT Wed Apr 28 2021 Areas affected...South-central Texas Concerning...Tornado Watch 120... Valid 290001Z - 290130Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 120 continues. SUMMARY...A threat for very large hail, wind damage and possibly a tornado will move eastward into the San Antonio Metro around 8 pm central. DISCUSSION...The latest radar shows a cluster of severe storms located about 60 statute miles to the west of San Antonio. Ahead of these storms, the RAP is analying a pocket of strong instability with MLCAPE near 4500 J/kg and 0-6 km shear near 50 kt. This environment will be very favorable for supercells with large hail. Hailstones of greater than 3 inches in diameter will be possible with the stronger updrafts. Wind gusts exceeding 65 knots may also occur, with the possibility of wind driven hail. ..Broyles/Guyer.. 04/29/2021 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

One of the earlier STW had hail to softball size

All the time or just at night?

12z EURO (days 8-10) looks atrocious -- see 850mb temp anomaly

LWX says maybe next week in their afternoon AFD

85 at DCA at 3pm... don't think 90 is in the cards today IAD/BWI both at 87 I guess teh record high of 88 at IAD could be challenged... but DCA/IAD no chance

DCA 82/59 at 2pm but IAD was 87/55 Winds are S at DCA but W at IAD

I don't think chasing TD landfalls are big plans

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 AM CDT Sun Apr 25 2021 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF WEST TX AND THE TX PANHANDLE INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL OK AND SOUTH-CENTRAL KS.... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday night from portions of West Texas and the Texas Panhandle into western/central Oklahoma and south-central Kansas. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A deep upper trough is forecast to be in place over the western CONUS early Tuesday morning. Strong mid/upper level flow will extend throughout the basal portion of this trough, beginning the period arced from off the central CA coast across northern Mexico and into the southern High Plains. This upper trough is expected to make modest eastward progress throughout the day while an embedded shortwave trough ejects over northern/central NM into eastern CO/western KS. This evolution will help spread the strong mid-level flow over much of the southern and central Plains. The surface pattern early Tuesday will likely feature a low near the central NE/KS border, with a dryline extending south-southwestward across central KS and northwest OK, and into the TX Panhandle. This dryline will likely remain in place, sharpening throughout the day as moderate low-level moisture advection continues to its east/southeast. Low-level convergence into this boundary combined with increasing large-scale ascent attendant to the approaching shortwave is forecast to result in convective initiation amid a diurnally destabilizing air mass. Some uncertainty exists regarding storm coverage, largely as a result of unknown cap strength and quality of the moisture return. Even so, environmental conditions support a predominantly supercell mode with any storms that do develop. All severe hazards are possible, including very large hail and tornadoes. Central High Plains surface cyclogenesis will likely cause a westward retreat of the dryline during the evening. At the same time, a strengthening low-level jet will increase warm-air advection across the boundary. These factors are expected to result in additional storm development from the Permian Basin into south-central KS. Primary threat with these evening and overnight storms is large hail. ..Mosier.. 04/25/2021