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Everything posted by yoda
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Its on the SPC page now -- https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html But you can get it here about 5 mins faster -- https://kamala.cod.edu/SPC/
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And we begin BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Tornado Warning National Weather Service Birmingham AL 1136 AM CDT Thu Mar 25 2021 The National Weather Service in Birmingham has issued a * Tornado Warning for... Central Greene County in west central Alabama... Northern Hale County in west central Alabama... * Until 1230 PM CDT. * At 1135 AM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located over Boligee, or 10 miles southwest of Eutaw, moving northeast at 45 mph. HAZARD...Tornado. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. * Locations impacted include... Eutaw, Moundville, Akron, Boligee, Allison, Walden Quarters, Wedgeworth, Evansville, Selden Lock And Dam, Moundville Airport, Phipps, Eutaw Municipal Airport, Mound State Park, Five Points Intersection, Elliots Creek, I 20 Rest Area Near Eutaw, Harper Hill and Havana.
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PDS TOR for extreme southern TN till 9pm EDT -- https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0050.html TN . TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FRANKLIN GILES LAWRENCE LINCOLN MOORE WAYNE
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- tennesse
- mississippi
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(and 6 more)
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HIGH risk expanded more eastward and SEward in 1630z update... HIGH now includes BMX metro ETA: TOR probs remain 30%, but were increased in size with respect to HIGH risk being increased in size
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LOT of major cities/metro areas in the watch
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URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 50 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CDT Thu Mar 25 2021 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Western and Northern Alabama Northwest Georgia Central and Eastern Mississippi Southern Middle Tennessee * Effective this Thursday morning and evening from 1125 AM until 800 PM CDT. ...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION... * Primary threats include... Numerous tornadoes and several intense tornadoes expected Widespread damaging winds and scattered significant gusts to 80 mph likely Widespread large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter likely SUMMARY...A dangerous environment is developing across the watch area. Multiple rounds of intense supercell thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and early evening, with the potential for long-track strong to violent tornadoes. A few of the storms may also produce very large hail and widespread damaging wind gusts. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 90 statute miles east and west of a line from 40 miles northeast of Huntsville AL to 45 miles west southwest of Pine Belt MS. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings.
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PDS TOR Watch issued til 9pm EDT for AL/MS/TN/GA
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Would not be surprised to see a 45% TOR area come out on the 1630 SPC OTLK
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Gorgas looks like it may be our first real player of the afternoon IMO
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I am not a big ham on pizza kind of guy... so I actually order my own... pineapple/banana peppers/sausage
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Mesoscale Discussion 0253 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1058 AM CDT Thu Mar 25 2021 Areas affected...central and northern Mississippi...parts of southwest Tennessee...northwest Alabama Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely Valid 251558Z - 251830Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...Storms are expected to form over the next couple hours over central and western Mississippi. Supercells are likely, with tornado threat increasing as cells mature and move northeast toward Alabama. Watch will be issues soon. DISCUSSION...Visible imagery and surface obs indicate the air mass continues to destabilize with areas of heating, as temperatures rise into the mid 70s F over the warm sector. This is sufficiently warm for surface-based parcels. Indications are that cells may develop both ahead of the cold front due to a very moist warm sector, and along the front itself. Deep-layer shear is expected to strengthen storms, which will gain intensity and tornado potential as they mature and continue northeastward across MS and into AL. The threat may extend into southern TN as well, once the warm front lifts there. ..Jewell/Hart.. 03/25/2021 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...
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Pineapple pizza FTW
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When I was younger (late teens into early 20s) I would still get carded for R rated movies because I was told that I looked younger than my age. It was kind of funny to be going out to see a R rated movie at 11pm and all your friends buy their tickets and while waiting for you, the person behind the counter says "May I see your ID please?"
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Maybe a stray STW late tonight?
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and 30% tor
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large 45% hatched wind
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High risk it is
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SPC did mention their concern for "destructive interference from too many storms in the warm sector" in their 1730 OTLK... so this is on their mind as well
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Winter is ovah
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Sounds good Are you going to do the ratings by the EF-Scale? Like EF-5 for the best places and EF0 for those not?
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lol Snyder https://sports.yahoo.com/nfl-dan-snyder-to-buy-out-washington-minority-partners-for-875-million-163102365.html
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Ah yes... the wind has returned! URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 153 PM EDT Wed Mar 24 2021 MDZ001-501-VAZ503-WVZ501-503-505-250200- /O.NEW.KLWX.HW.A.0001.210326T0600Z-210326T2100Z/ Garrett-Extreme Western Allegany-Western Highland-Western Grant- Western Mineral-Western Pendleton- Including the cities of Mountain Lake Park, Oakland, Grantsville, Frostburg, Hightown, Bayard, Mount Storm, Elk Garden, and Riverton 153 PM EDT Wed Mar 24 2021 ...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON... * WHAT...West to southwest winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 60 mph possible. * WHERE...In Maryland, Garrett and Extreme Western Allegany Counties. In Virginia, Western Highland County. In West Virginia, Western Grant, Western Mineral and Western Pendleton Counties. * WHEN...From late Thursday night through Friday afternoon. * IMPACTS...Damaging winds could blow down trees and power lines. Widespread power outages are possible. Travel could be difficult, especially for high profile vehicles.
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SPC finally updated lol... here is teh disco Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Wed Mar 24 2021 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/MID-SOUTH INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... The potential for an outbreak of severe storms including several long-track strong tornadoes, scattered large to very large hail, and severe/destructive winds, will exist Thursday into Thursday evening across a portion of the lower Mississippi Valley, Tennessee Valley, and Southeast. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough with attendant 70-100 kt+ mid-level jet will eject northeastward from the southern Plains across the lower/mid MS Valley on Thursday, and continue over the OH Valley and lower Great Lakes region Thursday night. At the surface, a weak low over northeast TX at the beginning of the period Thursday morning is expected to likewise develop northeastward to the mid MS Valley through the day while deepening. A warm front attendant to this cyclone will likely lift northward across the lower MS Valley/Mid-South and TN Valley towards the lower OH Valley by Thursday evening. ...Lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast... Storms will likely be ongoing at the start of the period from northeast TX into southern AR and northern MS/AL and TN. This activity will likely be supported by a southerly low-level jet and related warm advection. These storms should shift northward through the morning, allowing for destabilization via diurnal heating to occur across the lower MS Valley. Rich low-level moisture with at least mid to upper 60s surface dewpoints (perhaps lower 70s), should advect northward across parts of the lower/mid MS Valley, TN Valley, and Southeast by Thursday afternoon. This increasing moisture, coupled with diurnal heating, will likely support MLCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg developing over a fairly broad portion of these regions. A pronounced low-level jet (50-60+ kt) will overlie much of this region as well, as large-scale ascent from the ejecting shortwave trough overspreads the lower/mid MS Valley vicinity. Strongly veering and strengthening wind profiles from the surface through mid levels will support supercells. 0-1 km SRH along/south of the surface warm front will likely reach 300-500 m2/s2, and low-level mesocyclones capable of producing strong, long-track tornadoes appear likely with any supercells that can form. Scattered large hail, some of which may be 2+ inches in diameter, and severe/destructive winds also appear probable, both with supercells and any bowing line segments that can develop. At this time, the best potential for strong tornadoes appears to extend from parts of central/northern MS into western/middle TN and central/northern AL, mainly Thursday afternoon and evening as storms move generally northeastward. Concern does exist regarding the effect of storms forming during the morning on the development of instability, and potential for destructive interference from too many storms developing across the warm sector at the same time. Still, given the very favorable environment forecast across this region and the potential for numerous supercells, an upgrade to High Risk for multiple strong to potentially violent, long-track tornadoes may be needed in a later outlook update. ...Ohio Valley... Fairly widespread precipitation should occur over a majority of the lower OH Valley through the day. This should temper diurnal destabilization to some degree, but weak instability will probably still develop along/east of the surface low and northward-moving warm front. At least an isolated severe threat may develop late Thursday afternoon into the evening as the southerly low-level jet strengthens over this region and low-level moisture increases. The potential for a low-topped line of storms capable of producing damaging wind gusts and tornadoes will exist given the strength of the low-level flow and related shear. These storms will likely be tied to a cold front as it tracks northeastward through the evening and overnight hours.