yoda

@Kmlwx @high risk @Eskimo Joe Watch up for parts of MD and NW VA till 10pm

NHC has 95L at 10 percent... 97L at cherry for Day 5 Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Wed Jun 30 2021 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. A broad area of low pressure, associated with a tropical wave, is located about midway between the west coast of Africa and the Windward Islands. This system is producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms that continues to show some signs of organization. Environmental conditions appear generally favorable for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next few days while the system moves west-northwestward at about 20 mph. Interests in the Windward and Leeward Islands should closely monitor this system as it will likely be moving through that region on Friday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent. 2. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue in association with a tropical wave located a couple of hundred miles east of the Lesser Antilles. Significant development of this system is unlikely while it moves quickly westward to west-northwestward at 20 to 25 mph, passing through the Lesser Antilles today and then across the eastern and central Caribbean Sea later this week. Regardless of development, this system could bring locally heavy rainfall to portions of the Lesser Antilles during the next couple of days. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent. Forecaster Pasch

Surprised @weatherwiz hasn't been posting about it lol

I have 10k right now after rebuying in when it went below 20 cents. Dumped everything when it went below 35 cents earlier though

Probably gone unfortunately... but maybe @Wow may know? I think he is our resident board technician?

ENH pushed almost into the western CHI suburbs on 1630 OTLK hatched wind now reaches Chicago metro

12z NAM sounding for DC area at 00z SUN (8pm SAT)

12z NAM NEST looks pretty good for N VA into S PA late Saturday afternoon into Sat night looking at sup composite... radar looks intriguing too up north... after a supercell blows up just south of DC around 21z SAT

Don't sleep on today in C/N IA Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0739 AM CDT Thu Jun 17 2021 Valid 171300Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FOR PARTS OF THE UPPER MS VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are expected late this afternoon into tonight for parts of the upper Mississippi Valley, from northern Iowa/southern Minnesota into southern Wisconsin and northern Illinois. Wind gusts near or exceeding 75 mph, hail up to the size of baseballs, and a couple of tornadoes will be possible. ...Upper MS Valley this afternoon into tonight... A midlevel shortwave trough over the northern Plains/southern Prairie Provinces has crested the ridge, and heights will be suppressed east-southeastward toward the upper MS Valley and upper Great lakes by tonight. An associated, weak surface cold front/trough will likewise move slowly southeastward across NE/IA/MN/WI through tonight. The front and any lingering outflow boundaries from overnight convection will likely focus afternoon and evening thunderstorm development across southeast MN and along the IA/MN border, in phase with an embedded speed max moving eastward from SD (as evidence by the weak midlevel convection over SD this morning). The thermodynamic environment will feature steep midlevel lapse rates with a warm elevated mixed layer extending eastward from the Rockies, atop boundary-layer dewpoints in the 65-70 F range. Strong surface heating in the wake of morning elevated convection will drive large buoyancy (MLCAPE in excess of 4000 J/kg) and weakening convective inhibition as surface temperatures warm into the 90s. Effective bulk shear of 40-50 kt and the large CAPE will support a threat for supercells initially, with very large hail (up to baseball size) and damaging winds. Any semi-discrete storms in the zone of stronger low-level shear/warm advection closer to the MS River will also pose a threat for a couple of tornadoes. Otherwise, storms are expected to coalesce and grow upscale into one or more bowing clusters with the potential to produce significant damaging winds (greater than 75 mph) prior to the convection spreading east of the larger buoyancy late tonight.

Just a tad chilly to go along with the excellent morning

Quite a tasty morning AFD from LWX re severe chances

18z NAM soundings looks nice -- ofc at range -- in the 21z/00z time period on Saturday evening

Really Wizards? https://www.hoopsrumors.com/2021/06/scott-brooks-wont-return-as-wizards-head-coach.html

I wasn't trying to say that it was a guarantee lol... but was intrigued that there was already mention of it in the AFD already

Surprised no talk this morning of the LWX AFD for our severe prospects starting late Friday on @high risk @Eskimo Joe @Kmlwx

06z NAMNEST runs a UD Helicity swath right through/just north of DC 04z to 06z time period. Sim radar backs that up with a very intense line blowing through DC metro up the i95 corridor at same time

06z NAM soundings again suggest fun at 00z and 03z tonight across the region

Well... morning AFD was short and sweet about today's threat lol... also mentioned Saturday as the next day to watch for severe

Double hmmm... evening AFD update from LWX

SLGT risk for today on new Day 1... 0/5/15... disco sounds intriguing

He edited it to 06z tomorrow morning as the final final call

I don't remember that event

Tuesday afternoon to Thursday look excellent

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1251 PM EDT Sun Jun 13 2021 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Southwestern Garrett County in western Maryland... Northwestern Grant County in eastern West Virginia... * Until 130 PM EDT. * At 1251 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Thomas, moving southeast at 20 mph. HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by downed trees. Localized power outages are possible. Unsecured light objects may become projectiles. * Locations impacted include... Bayard, Wilson, Wilsonia and Beechwood. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building.

Or now lol... but it doesn't have any LWX counties in it https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0264.html