yoda

ay 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 PM CDT Mon Apr 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF OHIO...AND INCLUDING ADJACENT PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN INDIANA...NORTHERN KENTUCKY...AND WESTERN WEST VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... A potentially substantial severe weather outbreak -- possibly including a few significant/long-track tornadoes -- is evident for Tuesday afternoon and evening, with highest probability centered over the Ohio vicinity, and extending southward across the Tennessee Valley. Some severe risk exists as far south as the Gulf Coast, and as far east as western portions of Virginia and the Carolinas. ...Synopsis... While a positively tilted upper trough moves across the central third of the country Tuesday, a more compact/energetic short-wave feature is expected to dig aggressively/quickly southeastward across the Upper Midwest, gradually evolving into a closed low as it does. By Wednesday morning, the deepening low is progged to reside over the Illinois vicinity. At the surface, a low initially over the Missouri vicinity is progged to deepen as the upper system digs southeastward, shifting northeastward across the Midwest through the day, and then occluding northward into Lower Michigan overnight. A cold front associated with the low will sweep across the Mid Mississippi and Lower Ohio Valley through the day, and the Lower Mississippi/Tennessee/Upper Ohio Valleys overnight, crossing central/southern Appalachian Crest late. Meanwhile, a warm sector should expand as far north and east as central and northeast Indiana/northern Ohio/western Pennsylvania, though limited in northward progress to West Virginia/northern Virginia/Maryland by persistent/slow-to-retreat cold-air damming over the Northeast. ...Ohio and Tennessee Valleys... Widespread thunderstorms -- including some degree of all-hazards severe risk -- will likely be spreading rapidly eastward across the Ohio Valley area at the start of the period. This convection should reach the central Appalachians by late morning/midday, but -- though potentially having some impact on destabilization potential across the MDT and ENH risk areas -- should largely shift far enough east to allow warm-sector destabilization to commence. As the surface low deepens and crosses Illinois and eventually moves into Indiana, and the cold front advances across the Mid Mississippi and Lower Ohio Valleys, storm redevelopment is expected to occur during the afternoon. While evolution/storm mode remains somewhat difficult to discern -- in part due to earlier storms -- some mix of cellular and cluster/linear mode is expected to evolve. Given the ample destabilization expected in combination with very strong/veering deep-layer flow, all-hazards severe potential is evident, including very large hail, strong/damaging winds, and several significant tornadoes. The greatest risk, which will include potential for a couple of intense/long-track tornadoes, should begin across Indiana, and the spread across Ohio through the afternoon and evening, potentially reaching as far east as western portions of West Virginia and far western Pennsylvania into the evening. Eastward advance of the risk into central Pennsylvania will likely remain limited, but otherwise threat may spread into western portions of Virginia and the Carolinas late.

Afternoon day 2 update from SPC has MOD risk in Ohio, ENH near W MD and SLGT risk east of i81 corridor

Correct, MOD up for most of OH

FYI re the radar NOUS61 KLWX 011347 FTMLWX MESSAGE DATE: APR 01 2024 13:45:37 THE WSR-88D KLWX IS CURRENTLY OFFLINE AS TECHNICIANS ARE CURRENTLY PERFORMING REQUIRED MAINTENANCE. IT IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO SERVICE THIS AFTERNOON. && LFR

So no being missed?

SLGT risk for almost all LWX CWA into S PA on Tuesday and Tuesday night

Day 2 MRGL up... 0/5/5 ...Mid to Upper Ohio Valley/Central Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic... An anticyclonic mid-level flow pattern will be in place on Monday across the eastern U.S. At the surface, a quasi-stationary front is forecast to be located from southern Ohio east-southeastward into the Mid-Atlantic. This boundary will likely be a focus for convective development from the daytime hours into the overnight period. Although instability is forecast to remain weak near the boundary, strong deep-layer shear will be in place. This should support an isolated severe threat, potentially persisting for an extended period of time. Hail and isolated damaging gusts will likely be the primary concerns. The severe threat will likely be more isolated with eastward extent, mainly due to more limited low-level moisture content across the Mid-Atlantic.

Wind gust to 41mph at KDCA

Preliminary Local Storm Report National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1043 PM EDT Sat Mar 30 2024 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 1029 PM Tstm Wnd Gst 5 ESE Bay Ridge 38.92N 76.36W 03/30/2024 M61 mph ANZ532 MD Buoy Wind gusts of up to 53 knots (61 MPH) were measured by the Kent Island WeatherFlow sensor (XKNT) between 10:29 and 10:34 PM. && Event Number LWX2402885

Preliminary Local Storm Report National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1046 PM EDT Sat Mar 30 2024 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 1030 PM Tstm Wnd Gst Saunders Point Light 38.88N 76.48W 03/30/2024 M62 mph ANZ532 MD Buoy Wind gusts of up to 54 knots (62 MPH) were measured by the Saunders Point Light WeatherFlow sensor (XMTR) between 10:30 and 10:40 PM. && Event Number LWX2402888

And now a TVS marker lol

@WxUSAF what's with Radarscope showing two rotation markers?

Special Marine Warnings up for the waters

Too bad my Rangers will be in your way

Who wants some more snow? From this mornings AFD Mountain Snow (Thursday/Friday): The first in a series of cold fronts crosses the area early Wednesday morning, as the base of the cutoff mid-level low moves across PA/NY. Colder temperatures surge into the Alleghenies by Wednesday afternoon, causing precip to transition from rain to snow by Wednesday night. Favorable dynamics and ample moisture could result in a prolonged period of upslope mountain snow. Marginal temperatures likely limit accumulations through Wednesday evening, then better chance for snow to stick Thursday into Friday. The GFS in particular is much higher than the other guidance, showing significant snow accumulations late in the week. At the very least 1-3", possibly up to 4-5", of accumulating snow is possible at the higher elevations. Light snow could fall as east as the Blue Ridge/Catoctins

Morning AFD from LWX on the threat .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... An active weather pattern is likely to develop during the middle to late part of next week, bringing possibly impactful weather to the area. A strong Southern Stream Jet overspreads the area, with a broad wave of mid-level energy phasing with a digging mid-level trough from the Great Lakes. This is could bring strong to severe storms and/or a flood threat to parts of the area Tuesday. The ensuing mid-level cutoff low slowly moves east, as additional embedded shortwaves rotate around the western side of the low. This could bring mountain snow Wednesday night into Thursday, as well as windy conditions to end the week. The current temperature forecast for Tuesday is highly uncertain, and will be dependent on precip, cloud cover, and the placement of a warm front somewhere over or near the area. The area could be wedged in the cooler airmass, keeping temps in the 50s, or warm advection scours out the low-level inversion resulting in 60/70s for highs. The first in a series of cold fronts crosses the area early Wednesday morning, bringing gustier and near-normal temperatures Wednesday through Friday. Severe/Flood Threat (Tuesday/Wednesday): A warm front is forecast to be draped across the CWA early in the week, likely producing a large north to south temperature gradient. This is going to play a key role in whether we see any strong/severe storms, and/or a potential flood setup if other conditions line up. SPC has most of the area in a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) of severe weather for Tuesday. The threat appears to be greatest in the Alleghenies and south of US-50 where there is the greatest chance of instability developing. Around 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE combined with a strong deep-layer shear (60- 75KT possible based on model soundings) could produce a favorable environment for all modes of severe weather. A residual severe threat is possible Wednesday in central VA. A flood threat could develop along or north of the warm frontal boundary where training storms result in heavier rain rates. These aspects of the forecast remains highly uncertain, be sure to stay tuned for additional updates in the coming days.

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 300840 SPC AC 300840 Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0340 AM CDT Sat Mar 30 2024 Valid 021200Z - 071200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Tuesday/Day 4 and Wednesday/Day 5... A positively tilted upper-level trough is forecast to move quickly northeastward into the mid Mississippi Valley on Tuesday, as an associated mid-level jet translates northeastward into the Ohio Valley. At the surface, a cold front will likely advance east-southeastward into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, with a moist and unstable airmass in place across the region. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop along and ahead of the front Tuesday afternoon. Strong deep-layer shear, associated with the mid-level jet, should be favorable for severe storms. Wind damage, hail and a few tornadoes are expected in the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, with the severe potential extending eastward across the central Appalachians into the Mid-Atlantic. On Wednesday, the cold front is forecast to move to the Atlantic Seaboard. Ahead of the front, instability will increase during the morning. A severe threat could develop in some areas near the Atlantic coast early in the day, before the front moves offshore. Predictability is low concerning where the most favorable areas will be for strong thunderstorms.

06z GFS does have steep mid-level lapse rates though... 7 C/KM to even some 8s across the region

Don't remember seeing HWOs listing severe for 5 days out before @Kmlwx @Eskimo Joe Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1055 AM EDT Fri Mar 29 2024 ANZ530>543-DCZ001-MDZ008-011-013-014-016>018-504-506-508- VAZ053>057-527-301500- Chesapeake Bay north of Pooles Island MD- Chesapeake Bay from Pooles Island to Sandy Point MD- Chesapeake Bay from Sandy Point to North Beach MD- Chesapeake Bay from North Beach to Drum Point MD- Chesapeake Bay from Drum Point MD to Smith Point VA- Tidal Potomac from Key Bridge to Indian Head MD- Tidal Potomac from Indian Head to Cobb Island MD- Tidal Potomac from Cobb Island MD to Smith Point VA- Patapsco River including Baltimore Harbor- Chester River to Queenstown MD-Eastern Bay- Choptank River to Cambridge MD and the Little Choptank River- Patuxent River to Broomes Island MD- Tangier Sound and the inland waters surrounding Bloodsworth Island-District of Columbia-Cecil-Southern Baltimore- Prince Georges-Anne Arundel-Charles-St. Marys-Calvert- Central and Southeast Montgomery-Central and Southeast Howard- Southeast Harford-Fairfax-Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria- Stafford-Spotsylvania-King George- Central and Southeast Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park- 1055 AM EDT Fri Mar 29 2024 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Maryland portion of the Chesapeake Bay, Tidal Potomac River, and I-95 corridor through central Maryland, northern Virginia, and District of Columbia. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight A Gale Warning is in effect until 6 PM for the Chesapeake Bay and adjoining estuaries north of Drum Point MD, and the tidal Potomac River from Key Bridge to Cobb Island MD. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday There is a slight threat for severe weather on Tuesday into Tuesday night. All severe weather hazards are potentially at play should the threat materialize. Isolated instances of flooding are also possible. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is possible on Tuesday.

I'd say that's some strong wording for Day 5 for our region Tuesday/Day 5... The upper-level system is forecast to move eastward into the Ozarks and mid Mississippi Valley on Tuesday. An associated cold front will likely move quickly eastward into the mid Mississippi Valley early in the day. Ahead of the front, a moist and unstable airmass is expected to be in place by midday, with scattered to numerous thunderstorms developing in the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys in the afternoon. The mid-level jet is forecast to move into the Ohio Valley by late afternoon, suggesting that a widespread severe threat will be possible. Strong deep-layer shear and lift associated with the jet would be favorable for supercells with a threat for wind damage, large hail and some tornadoes. The severe threat is forecast to extend southward into the Tennessee Valley, and eastward into the Mid-Atlantic, where scattered severe storms will be possible within a moist and unstable airmass.

It looked like it at the time lol... now there is still a few showers down there

What about what looks to be some development down west of RIC?

Lightning and thunder in the 40s lol