yoda

yeah its CWG... but they do mention slight chance of a TOR for Christmas Eve

It's going to be hilarious (and quite sad) when WFT finishes 7-9 and makes the playoffs as NFC East Champ and plays a home playoff game and Baltimore finishes 10-6/11-5 and misses the playoffs due to tiebreakers

Wes is not going to like you now

I like how there are about 6 members with 4"+ for DCA

00z GEFS Ensemble mean looks like 3 inches at DCA... must be a few members skewing the mean I guess

You forgot snowjikma or whoever it was telling us that the QPF went down each run

WFT clinches the 4th seed in the playoffs next week and plays a home playoff game if: WFT WIN AND NYG LOSS (Dallas loses head to head tiebreaker with WFT so their game doesn't matter if WFT wins vs CAR... NYG plays the Ravens next week)

Thanks for bumping this thread back up @psuhoffman... very informative thread

Now that is a better run... its a bit faster/quicker than the 00z EURO... which is better for many of us.

Get the 00z EURO tonight to form that SLP a lil later (like 6-12 hours) or the arctic front to pass through our region a lil faster and we all enjoy a nice 2-4 for Christmas

Well he just posted the 00z GEFS at 192 and basically woofed at it lol

You forgot the DGEX lol

I hope so... this is the now pinned thread on DT (Dave's) Twitter page about the threat... he tags NC to New England https://mobile.twitter.com/wxrisksecs1/status/1340533860707278848

Jesus... now everyone is going to take that literally

It will change... but its fun to see the bolded Zone Forecast Product National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 341 AM EST Sat Dec 19 2020 DCZ001-VAZ054-191200- District of Columbia-Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria- Including the cities of Washington, Arlington, Alexandria, and Falls Church 341 AM EST Sat Dec 19 2020 .REST OF THE OVERNIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 20s. North winds around 5 mph. .TODAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the upper 30s. Light and variable winds, becoming south around 5 mph in the afternoon. .TONIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Lows in the lower 30s. South winds around 5 mph. .SUNDAY...Mostly cloudy. A chance of rain and snow showers in the morning. Patchy fog. Highs in the lower 40s. South winds around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation 40 percent. .SUNDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Lows in the lower 30s. South winds around 5 mph in the evening, becoming light and variable. .MONDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the upper 40s. .MONDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers. Lows in the mid 30s. Chance of rain 40 percent. .TUESDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the mid 40s. .TUESDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows around 30. .WEDNESDAY...Sunny. Highs in the mid 40s. .WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Lows in the lower 40s. .THURSDAY...Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers. Highs in the mid 50s. .THURSDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of snow showers. Lows in the upper 20s. .CHRISTMAS DAY...Mostly sunny with a 50 percent chance of snow showers. Cooler with highs in the mid 30s.

2m Temp on 00z GFS at 1am on Christmas Day: 25 degrees 2m Temp on 00z EURO at 1am on Christmas Day: 59 degrees

Not quite sure where 00z UKIE is going at 144 tbh... 1030 HP in S MN with a SLP of 1005mb near Mobile Bay, AL

Quite true -- and you are right re the snow maps considering the last "storm" lol. However, once we change to snow, its going to be a real heavy wet snow, which will stick to everything quickly IMO. Be it 1 inch or 5 inches... its going to cause issues. And there is going to be a powerful LLJ with this system as well, which LWX covered in their afternoon AFD.

A low does develop along the front and deepens as it goes north... is at 988mb in S VA as it gets ready to move by us

It would have been a nice hit for all if the SLP was a bit slower/developed a bit later. As you said, it's still there and we've got 144 hours of fun to invest in this event lol

Very cold Christmas Day however... highs are 15 in the mountains to maybe 25 in the cities across the LWX CWA

Powerful cold front nonetheless... at 138 its 57 degrees at DCA... at 141 its 33 degrees

Still there on the 00z GFS... but the SLP develops a little earlier and is a bit faster than the 18z GFS run... which cuts down on the snow totals

This is the way