yoda

@high risk @dtk sever backup is in Orlando? 000 NOUS42 KWNO 300936 ADASDM SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ALERT ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS COLLEGE PARK MD 0936Z WED DEC 30 2020 ...EMERGENCY WCOSS PRODUCTION SWITCH - FINAL UPDATE... NCO has completed post emergency switch model production cleanup. NCEP model production is running normally in Orlando. Final model delays (this list is not fully inclusive as not all models are tracked for timeliness): * 00Z GEFS (110 min after forecast hour 90) * 00Z HWRF (130 min, running 2 storms for JTWC) * 04Z CIP (70 min) * 05Z CIP (18 min) * 03Z HRRR (130 min after forecast hour 10) * 03Z RAP (2 hrs after forecast hour 42) * 04Z RAP (50 min) * 03Z SREF (110 min) * 06Z HRRR (55 min) * 06Z NAM smartinit (up to 60 min) * 06Z HIRESW AK and PR smartinit (up to 50 min) Ready/SDM/NCO/NCEP

i did not know this https://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/status/messages/ SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS COLLEGE PARK MD 0511Z WED DEC 30 2020 PROD JOB SUBMISSIONS UPDATE - EMERGENCY WCOSS PRODUCTION SWITCH TO ORLANDO... One of the supercomputers in Reston (Luna) has encountered a filesystem problem. NCO's model production team and IBM are preparing for an emergency production supercomputer switch to Orlando. Ready/SDM/NCO/NCEP

double hmmm... from LWX morning disco

hello there

Hmmm

We haven't seen a -NAO/-AO tandem in years and when we finally do... some apparently have to find something wrong with it.

We don't necessarily need Pacific help... just time things correctly or have the ridge in the West in the correct spot as a s/w comes through or SLP and we are fine. We don't need a raging +PNA to get snow around here in January and February... a slightly positive PNA will do the trick

ofc first comment was Ji

Excellent and very detailed thread by HM (Anthony Masiello) about SSW and upcoming pattern for rest of winter through analog perspective https://mobile.twitter.com/antmasiello/status/1343822175892074496

Webb also tweeted about "the pattern is x amount if days away therefore bullcrap" crowd too https://mobile.twitter.com/webberweather/status/1343651365709619211

Sounds like Webb is in the snow train https://mobile.twitter.com/webberweather/status/1343831117162545155 https://mobile.twitter.com/webberweather/status/1343682463546175494 https://mobile.twitter.com/webberweather/status/1343646568474406915

Wow https://mobile.twitter.com/webberweather/status/1343835393028927489

Beach weather in Salisbury today apparently

More like a severe weather threat on the 00z UKIE for the LWX CWA IMO at 138/144 -- 60-70 kts bulk shear and temps 65-70 degrees at 00z THUR

Well the Raiders kicker did miss an XP earlier in the 4th quarter... so we could have had OT instead The Coastal Carolina/Liberty ending to their football game was wow as well

@ravensrule didn't like that finish lol

This deserves a early reaping

@WxUSAF can we move the last few pages of the December disco thread one into the new January one? Or would that cause too many problems?

@usedtobe says no snow for you

Done it is yes yes

True... but with the snowmelt and 2 inches of rain... probably better chance than usual

Good runs the models have shown for the New Year. Potential for snow there will be yes yes... but hard to see the future is. The Dark Side, always watchful it is, waiting to take our snow away.

I'd be more concerned about the flash freeze potential IMO

@WxUSAF @mappy or other mods... or any posters really lol Should we make a new thread for January long range since we are about a week away from going to the new year?

I was going to say Day 10 (of course it does since its Day 10 lol) looked enticing at h5... probably get a storm chance in the few days after