yoda

Mesoscale Discussion 1840 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0314 PM CDT Tue Oct 12 2021 Areas affected...eastern Texas Panhandle into far western Oklahoma Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely Valid 122014Z - 122245Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...A few supercells may develop through evening, from the eastern Texas Panhandle into far western Oklahoma. Tornadoes, perhaps strong, and very large hail will be possible. DISCUSSION...Surface analysis shows a front extending from northern TX into southwest OK which is becoming more diffuse with heating. This boundary separates a cooler/capped air mass over much of OK from a destabilizing air mass over northwest TX and into the TX Panhandle. Meanwhile, a dryline stretches from north to south across the TX Panhandle and South Plains. Visible satellite shows stable billow clouds north of the boundary, but these are gradually eroding from south to north as temperatures warm into the lower 80s F. A growing CU field is also evident over northwest TX, where MLCAPE is in the 1500-2000 J/kg range. Backed surface winds on the cool side of the boundary are contributing to 100-150 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH per FDR VWP. Although convergence is currently weak, it is expected to increase around 00Z and into the evening as the dryline eventually pushes east with the upper trough. A few more hours of air mass modification will occur, including moistening. In addition, the low-level jet will continue to increase to over 50 kt, further enhancing shear. Assuming a cell or two can form, they should quickly acquire rotation, with tornadoes and hail likely. Any lone cells that can maintain access to the warm side of the boundary will have the potential for a strong tornado. ..Jewell/Grams.. 10/12/2021 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...

Saturday maybe? High shear low instability event possible

ay 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0246 PM CDT Tue Oct 12 2021 Valid 122000Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE...FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND THE EASTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE...AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered to numerous severe thunderstorms are expected to begin late this afternoon, peak this evening, and continue into tonight across parts of the central and southern Great Plains. Several tornadoes, some of which may be strong, along with destructive hail and wind are possible. ...Discussion... Forecast thinking from the previous outlook is on track regarding the overall scenario, and confidence has increased for several long-track supercells capable of a couple strong and perhaps an intense tornado this evening/tonight. As a result, this outlook update is introducing a 15-percent tornado probability and an associated Moderate Risk for portions of the northeast TX Panhandle and far northwest OK, and areas to the north-northwest into southwest KS. Storm-simulated model guidance continues to show quasi-discrete convective mode with storms that develop initially near the dryline and move east into richer low-level moisture and high SRH this evening. Forecast soundings strongly favor discrete supercells and long-track, fast-moving supercells appear likely to traverse across the Moderate Risk. Linear forcing and slightly drier/less unstable air will probably favor upscale growth into a band of storms in northwest KS and northeast CO, limiting the tornado risk. Have adjusted the southeastern bound of the 10-percent tornado area to be farther northwest and mainly be confined to western and northwestern OK. ..Smith.. 10/12/2021

Mesoscale Discussion 1838 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 PM CDT Tue Oct 12 2021 Areas affected...Portions of southwest Kansas into northwest Oklahoma and far northeast Texas Panhandle Concerning...Outlook upgrade Valid 121929Z - 122000Z SUMMARY...An upgrade to Category 4/Moderate risk will be introduced in the 20Z Day 1 Convective Outlook to reflect a greater risk for strong tornadoes. DISCUSSION...The latest high-resolution/convection allowing model guidance consensus has been generally trending upward in the intensity and longevity of deep, moist convection over portions of the southern High Plains. Potential exists for multiple discrete/semi-discrete supercells to develop ahead of a Pacific front late this afternoon/evening. These storms are expected to progress eastward into an ambient environment characterized by very strong low-level shear, resulting in large, curved hodographs and effective SRH values exceeding 400 m2/s2, especially across portions of southwest KS/northwest OK/far northeast TX Panhandle. Here, potential exists for at least a few intense, cyclical tornadic supercells to develop, and a long-tracked tornado or two cannot be ruled out. As such, portions of the central Plains will be upgraded to Category 4/Moderate risk in the upcoming 20Z Day 1 Convective Outlook. ..Squitieri/Grams.. 10/12/2021 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...AMA...

MD out stating MOD risk coming for tornadoes on 20z OTLK https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1838.html

Backstrom to start the season on LTIR... so out for all of October

Large ENH for Day 3 as well from S NE into NW Oklahoma

About time lol

Strong in the Force were you

A small hatched tor prob appears on the 1730 Day 2 in S OK

10/30/30 on the new Day 2

Take it FWIW.

I think we'd all lose our minds if a 97-98 winter appeared. Yes I believe it was a super El Nino... but those temps... yikes

Blah... LWX AFD from this afternoon seems to suggest weekend could be terrible The pattern for Saturday remains uncertain at this time as it will be heavily dependent on a coastal low off the Carolina coast. Models have differing solution with the GFS keeping a strong high pressure / upper ridge over the NE US which prevents the coastal low from moving northward toward our region. On the other hand, the Euro is weaker with the high and allows the low to bring areas of 1 to 2 inches of precipitation to parts of our region. General trends have pushed precipitation to the late Saturday and into Sunday period with areas around and below DC experiencing the heaviest precipitation. The threat for flooding has increased especially if the coastal low shifts closer to the coast with flooding most likely to occur if the heaviest rain occurs over our metro areas. There is the possibility that our region remains mostly dry this weekend especially if the GFS solution comes true. Temperatures on Saturday will be slightly cooler in the 70s with overnight lows in upper 50s to lower 60s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Come Sunday, guidance continues to diverge on how it handles an upper level trough across the Eastern Seaboard. Guidance varies in developing an upper level low and a coastal low along a surface trough. The potential surface low is being monitored by the NHC for potential tropical development off the SE US coast (see nhc.noaa.gov for the latest). Regardless if this system officially becomes named a tropical system, heavy rain and gusty winds are possible Sunday mainly east of the Blue Ridge. Impacts are highly dependent on the track of the surface low, and considerable uncertainty remains. Regardless, if the low moves nearby, it should be out of the area by Sunday night with dry weather returning early next week as upper level ridging builds across the region.

Hmmm... LWX AFD from this afternoon: The pattern for Saturday remains uncertain at this time as it will be heavily dependent on a coastal low off the Carolina coast. Models have differing solution with the GFS keeping a strong high pressure / upper ridge over the NE US which prevents the coastal low from moving northward toward our region. On the other hand, the Euro is weaker with the high and allows the low to bring areas of 1 to 2 inches of precipitation to parts of our region. General trends have pushed precipitation to the late Saturday and into Sunday period with areas around and below DC experiencing the heaviest precipitation. The threat for flooding has increased especially if the coastal low shifts closer to the coast with flooding most likely to occur if the heaviest rain occurs over our metro areas. There is the possibility that our region remains mostly dry this weekend especially if the GFS solution comes true. Temperatures on Saturday will be slightly cooler in the 70s with overnight lows in upper 50s to lower 60s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Come Sunday, guidance continues to diverge on how it handles an upper level trough across the Eastern Seaboard. Guidance varies in developing an upper level low and a coastal low along a surface trough. The potential surface low is being monitored by the NHC for potential tropical development off the SE US coast (see nhc.noaa.gov for the latest). Regardless if this system officially becomes named a tropical system, heavy rain and gusty winds are possible Sunday mainly east of the Blue Ridge. Impacts are highly dependent on the track of the surface low, and considerable uncertainty remains. Regardless, if the low moves nearby, it should be out of the area by Sunday night with dry weather returning early next week as upper level ridging builds across the region.

DCA: 11/20 IAD: 10/26 BWI: 11/05 RIC: 11/17 TB: 2.04"

Saints next week... oh boy Then KC, GB, Denver, and then Tampa after bye week first week of November... good luck defense

A win is a win... I love some Heinicke... but geez our defense sucks

lolololololololol

This is what I think about the WFT

Did you try a heating pad?

Lol this team is garbage ETA: yeah that was pure luck for a TD

Nah, I'm thinking of becoming a Jets fan... or maybe a Lions fan

Even the 00z Euro suggests a +10 to +15 surface temp anomaly at Day 10... yuck

06z GFS was atrocious past Day 10