yoda

Yay! You win the prize of a FFW!

Making landfall at 80mph... and might be one of those rare (I think? Someone correctvme if I'm wrong) TCs to become a new storm in the Pacific basin Hurricane Grace Discussion Number 24 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021 400 AM CDT Thu Aug 19 2021 After a brief convective hiatus between 0400-0700 UTC, deep convection in the inner-core region has increased and become better organized during the past couple of hours. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigating Grace more than 4 hours ago reported a central pressure of 986 mb -- down 2 mb from previous passes -- and a maximum 700-mb flight-level wind speed of 74 kt on its last leg northbound around 0500 UTC. The 74-kt flight-level wind equates to about a 67-kt surface wind speed. These data supported maintaining a 70-kt intensity at 0600 UTC. The upper-level outflow remains symmetrical and has been expanding somewhat over the past few hours. The initial motion is 280/15 kt based on the earlier recon fixes and passive microwave satellite data. Grace should continue to move generally westward for the next 48 hours, crossing the coast of the eastern Yucatan Peninsula within the next couple of hours, followed by a track across the Yucatan and emergence over the Bay of Campeche by 24 hours, with a subsequent landfall along the eastern coast of mainland Mexico shortly after the 48-hour forecast period. This track scenario is consistent with the latest 0000 UTC global and regional models, which show the strong deep-layer ridge to the north of Grace maintaining its expansive presence across the western Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico, and northern Mexico. After the second landfall, Grace is expected to turn west-southwestward and dissipate over the mountains of central Mexico by 72 hours. The new NHC forecast track is similar to the previous advisory track, and lies along the northern edge of the tightly packed consensus track models. Given the recent improvement in Grace's inner-core convective structure noted in high-resolution infrared satellite imagery, some slight strengthening to 75 kt could still occur just prior to landfall this morning. Weakening will commence once Grace moves inland over Yucatan, with re-strengthening expected after the cyclone emerges over the Bay of Campeche where the vertical wind shear is forecast to decrease below 10 kt. Grace is expected to be a hurricane when the second landfall occurs along the coast of mainland Mexico, with the cyclone possibly reaching a peak intensity of 75 kt shortly after the 48-hour period. After final landfall in mainland Mexico, Grace should quickly weaken and dissipate over the mountains of Mexico by 72 hours, if not sooner. The remnants of Grace are expected to emerge over the eastern North Pacific and possibly re-develop there, but the uncertainty of whether this will be the original center or a new center precludes forecast points over the Pacific at this time. A Hurricane Warning will likely be required for portions of the Hurricane Watch area of mainland Mexico later this morning or afternoon. Key Messages: 1. Hurricane conditions and a dangerous storm surge are expected in portions of the Hurricane Warning area in the eastern Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico during the next several hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. 2. There is an increasing risk of hurricane conditions and dangerous storm surge in portions of eastern mainland Mexico beginning late Friday, and a Hurricane Watch is in effect for part of this area. 3. Through the weekend, heavy rainfall across central and northern portions of the Yucatan Peninsula and Veracruz State should lead to flash and urban flooding. In addition, the heavy rainfall from Grace will be capable of producing mudslides in Veracruz. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/0900Z 20.0N 87.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 19/1800Z 20.3N 89.7W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 24H 20/0600Z 20.6N 92.6W 60 KT 70 MPH...OVER WATER 36H 20/1800Z 20.5N 95.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 21/0600Z 20.1N 97.3W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND 60H 21/1800Z 19.7N 100.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 72H 22/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart

That's what the kamala website is for lol The 1300z OTLK is up on there now

SLGT risk extended southward on 1300z OTLK towards RIC 5% tor moved south as well

Mesoscale Discussion 1550 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0746 AM CDT Wed Aug 18 2021 Areas affected...Parts of the eastern West Virginia Panhandle...northern Virginia...central Maryland and adjacent south central Pennsylvania Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 181246Z - 181445Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...The development of occasional isolated supercell structures with the potential to produce tornadoes (generally short-lived) may increase through 11 am-1 pm EDT, mainly west through northwest of the District of Columbia into the higher terrain around Martinsburg, WV and Hagerstown, MD. It is not yet certain a watch will be needed, but trends are being monitored for this possibility. DISCUSSION...The remnant surface low of Fred has migrated northward into areas south/southeast of Parkersburg, WV during the past few hours. As this has occurred, very moist boundary layer has advected northwestward across the Mid Atlantic region. This includes dew points as high as the mid 70s F into the higher terrain centered around the Martinsburg, WV vicinity, where low-level convergence is becoming focused, and an area of enhanced mid/upper forcing for ascent is forecast to overspread through 15-17Z. Beneath a narrow belt of 30+ kt southerly flow around 850 mb, this also appears likely to coincide with where clockwise-curved low-level hodographs will become maximized, with the terrain contributing to the maintenance of backed/southeasterly near surface flow. As breaks in the overcast allow for insolation to contribute to boundary-layer destabilization, it appears that the environment may become increasingly conducive to supercell structures with the potential to produce relatively short-lived tornadoes. ..Kerr/Edwards.. 08/18/2021 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX...

MD out... 40 percent chance of watch. For BR into i81 corridor

5am disco from NHC does make note of it and states that New England coast should keep an eye on it

Tropical Storm Henri Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021 500 AM AST Wed Aug 18 2021 There's been little change in Henri's satellite appearance this morning. The surface center is still located just to the northwest of a gradually expanding central dense overcast, and there still appears to be an eye-like feature in the Bermuda Doppler radar presentation. However, there are no indications in the GOES-16 BD-curve enhanced infrared images of a developing warm spot. Subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates remain steady, and the initial intensity is held at 55 kt for this advisory. Although the surrounding thermodynamic environment is ripe for further significant development, moderate northwesterly shear continues to impinge on the cyclone causing difficulty in inner-core convective development. Consequently, little change in strength is expected during the next couple days, and in fact the statistical SHIPS model indicates an increase in a more northerly shear component on Thursday. By Saturday afternoon, however, the shear should decrease as the cyclone slides beneath an upper ridge axis off of the southeast U.S. coast. Henri is expected to further intensity through the remaining period as the upper-wind flow becomes much more diffluent. The official intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory, and lies between the SHIPS model and the HFIP Corrected Consensus Approach aid after the 60-hour period. The initial motion is estimated to be westward, or 260/7 kt. A high amplitude mid- to upper-level anticyclone situated north-northeast of Henri should steer the cyclone toward the west during the next 36 hours, or so. Thereafter, the aforementioned ridge is forecast to weaken and shift eastward in response to a mid-latitude shortwave trough moving over the northeastern U.S. As a result of the change in the synoptic steering pattern, Henri should turn toward the northwest, north, and then northeast through the remaining portion of the forecast. With so much uncertainty or spread in the global and regional models beyond day 3, the best approach at this point is to base the NHC forecast on the better performing multi-model consensus guidance, which has once again shifted a bit to the left of the previous track forecast. I think it's worth noting that the GFSv16 model is now showing a shortwave ridge building over eastern Canada on Sunday, which causes Henri to move more northward toward the New England coast. Therefore, additional changes or shifts of the track beyond the 60-hour period may be required on subsequent advisories. Due to the increased uncertainty in the track forecast, interests along the New England coast should monitor the progress of Henri. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/0900Z 30.1N 65.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 18/1800Z 29.9N 66.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 19/0600Z 29.8N 68.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 19/1800Z 29.8N 70.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 20/0600Z 30.4N 71.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 20/1800Z 31.4N 72.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 21/0600Z 33.0N 71.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 22/0600Z 37.6N 69.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 23/0600Z 40.5N 66.1W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Roberts

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1234 AM CDT Wed Aug 18 2021 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes will be possible today across portions of the central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic. Thunderstorms associated with strong winds and hail may also occur across parts of the Intermountain West, and over portions of the Mid-South/Tennessee Valley. ...Mid-Atlantic... The remnants of Tropical Depression Fred are forecast to move north across the central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic, with the center of circulation located over West Virginia by the start of the period. Deep tropical moisture will advect northward with low to mid 70s surface dewpoints expected by early afternoon. Some cloud breaks and modest surface heating should be more than enough to support MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg through the day. High-resolution and regional guidance are in good agreement that surface wind fields in the northeastern quadrant of the remnant low will remain strong through much of the day. A 40 kt mid-level speed max should also enhance low- and mid-level shear across much of PA, MD, and northern VA, where model soundings show 0-1 km SRH of 200-300 m2/s2. The combination of sufficient buoyancy and strong low-level shear should support multiple supercells with the potential for a few tornadoes and isolated strong wind gusts through the afternoon/early evening.

SLGT risk on new Day 1 from N VA north into C PA

Torrential downpours right now

06z NAM NEST sim radar from around 19z WED to around 02z THUR looks nice

Sounds like a break is coming

Tropical Storm Grace Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021 500 AM EDT Tue Aug 17 2021 An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft had difficulty locating the center of Grace early this morning. The last few visible satellite images along with 0200Z ASCAT wind data indicated that a lee-side surface low had formed south of the western tip of Haiti. That feature has gradually been pulling northward closer to the deep convection that has developed near the well-defined mid-level circulation center. The initial position is the midpoint between the recon position in the latest vortex message and the mid-level circulation noted in passive microwave imagery. The aircraft also found some patches of 925-mb flight-level winds of 48-51 kt, which equates to surface winds of 36-38 kt. Reliable SFMR surface winds obtained by the aircraft were also in the 36-38-kt range. Based on these data, Grace was upgraded back to a 35-kt tropical storm at 0600 UTC. Regardless of Grace's exact intensity right now, the immediate threat is still torrential rainfall across western Hispaniola today and over Jamaica this afternoon and tonight, which will likely cause severe flooding in some locations. The initial motion estimate is an uncertain 280/14 kt. A strong mid-level ridge is forecast to build westward across Florida and the Gulf of Mexico during the next several days, which should keep Grace on a westward or west-northwestward track through the 120-h forecast period. Only a very sight southward shift in the previous forecast track was made, which was due primarily to the new estimated southerly initial position, and the new NHC forecast track lies along the northern edge of model guidance envelope. Once Grace passes Jamaica in 12-18 hours, the cyclone will be passing over water temperatures near 30 deg C and into a more divergent upper-level wind flow pattern. These two favorable conditions should allow for Grace to slowly intensify and possibly be near hurricane strength by the time the cyclone reaches the Yucatan peninsula in about 48 hours. Thereafter, Grace will weaken as it pass over Yucatan, and then re-strengthen some over the Bay of Campeche before reaching mainland Mexico in about 96 hours. The NHC intensity forecast is close to a blend of the HCCA and IVCN consensus models. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rainfall across the Dominican Republic, Haiti, Cuba, Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and the northern Yucatan Peninsula may lead to flash, urban, and small stream flooding, with the potential for mudslides highest in Haiti and the Dominican Republic. 2. Tropical storm conditions are possible over portions of Hispaniola and over Jamaica on today. Tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of the southern coast of Cuba today, spreading westward to the Cayman Islands and possibly other portions of the southern coast of Cuba this evening through Wednesday morning. 3. There is a increasing risk of wind, rainfall, and storm surge impacts on the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico Wednesday night and Thursday. Interests there areas should monitor the progress of Grace and updates to the forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/0900Z 18.2N 75.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 17/1800Z 18.6N 77.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 18/0600Z 19.1N 80.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 18/1800Z 19.7N 83.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 19/0600Z 20.4N 87.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 19/1800Z 21.0N 90.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 72H 20/0600Z 21.4N 92.7W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER 96H 21/0600Z 22.0N 97.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 22/0600Z 22.3N 101.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Stewart

Tropical Storm Grace Advisory Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021 500 AM EDT Tue Aug 17 2021 ...GRACE CONTINUING TO RE-ORGANIZE AS IT HEADS TOWARD JAMAICA... ...HEAVY RAINS CAUSING FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA... SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.2N 75.4W ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM E OF MONTEGO BAY JAMAICA ABOUT 385 MI...620 KM E OF GRAND CAYMAN MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Watch for portions of the Yucatan Peninsula from Cabo Catoche southward to Punta Allen.

Morning LWX disco re Fred [Quote] .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... The remnants of Fred are forecast to track up the western slope of the Appalachians Wednesday with moderate to heavy rain spreading mainly along and west of the Blue Ridge Mountains. The axis of heaviest rainfall will be determined by the exact track of Fred and speed as it lifts northward, but with the tropical airmass in place with ample moisture, several inches of rain will be possible with a threat for flooding. Current thinking is the western half of our CWA will favor a greater risk of flooding given the latest forecast track of Fred and the assistance of terrain along the Alleghenies and Blue Ridge Mountains. As with many tropical systems, there will be sufficient wind shear in the atmosphere as it tracks to our west. The threat for any thunderstorms that develop to the east of the track will be capable of turning severe, and perhaps spawn tornadoes. Again, the exact track and evolution of the system will be key is narrowing down this threat over the next 24 hours. The Storm Prediction Center highlights much of the CWA in a Marginal Risk for severe storms Wednesday into Wednesday night, with damaging winds and tornadoes highlighted as the main threats. The remnants of Fred will continue to progress northward toward the Mason Dixon Line and Pennsylvania into Wednesday night, with a continued heavy rainfall and flooding threat across the area. Model guidance progresses Fred to our north by Thursday morning, allowing for decreasing rain chances to emerge in its wake. We`ll remain on the eastern flank of the broad upper trough, so as instability builds Thursday afternoon/evening, additional showers and thunderstorms will be possible across the mountains. [/Quote]

Tropical Storm Henri Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021 500 AM AST Tue Aug 17 2021 Earlier this evening Henri was undergoing a sheared bursting pattern, with intermittent deep convection trying to develop near the center, but northwesterly shear would quickly diminish the convective coverage. However, over the past several hours the convection has become more persistent, and covers at least the southeastern portion of the low-level center. As such, the latest subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB are now both 3.0 (45 kt), and therefore 45 kt will be the initial advisory intensity. Henri is forecast to remain over warm waters and in an environment of light to moderate northerly shear for the next 24 h, so some strengthening is expected during that time. After 24 h, global models indicate that the shear magnitude will double, which should prevent any further strengthening and possibly weaken the cyclone. The latest NHC intensity forecast was adjusted a little higher than the previous due to both the increase in initial intensity, and slight increase in the model intensity guidance. This forecast closely follows the LGEM solution and is just a little lower than the IVCN consensus. The tropical storm continues to move slowly southwest, or 240/04 kt to the southeast of a mid-level ridge. This ridge is forecast to shift to the east over the next several days, which would result in the tropical storm making a gradual clockwise turn throughout much of the forecast period. Tonight, Henri is forecast to turn westward with a increase in forward motion and pass well south of Bermuda. In a few days, the cyclone should turn to the northwest then north, followed by a turn to the northeast around the western periphery of the ridge. There continues to be some spread in how far west Henri will go before it begins to turn to the north, and the latest guidance has made a slight shift to the left. The official NHC forecast is near the previous one through 48 h, then is a little left of it thereafter, yet still remains to the right of the bulk of the consensus guidance beyond 48 h. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/0900Z 30.6N 63.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 17/1800Z 30.4N 64.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 18/0600Z 30.3N 65.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 18/1800Z 30.2N 67.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 19/0600Z 30.3N 68.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 19/1800Z 30.8N 69.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 20/0600Z 31.6N 70.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 21/0600Z 34.0N 69.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 22/0600Z 36.0N 66.0W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Latto

BULLETIN Tropical Storm Henri Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021 500 AM AST Tue Aug 17 2021 ...HENRI STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.6N 63.7W ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM SSE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 240 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES

Day 2 MRGL risk for all... 2% tor and 5% wind

Late Wednesday into Thursday could be interesting depending on track of Fred

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Flash Flood Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1242 AM EDT Sun Aug 15 2021 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Flash Flood Warning for... District of Columbia... Southeastern Montgomery County in central Maryland... Northwestern Prince Georges County in central Maryland... Northern Arlington County in northern Virginia... Central Fairfax County in northern Virginia... Prince William County in northern Virginia... The City of Fairfax in northern Virginia... The City of Falls Church in northern Virginia... The City of Manassas in northern Virginia... The City of Manassas Park in northern Virginia... * Until 345 AM EDT. * At 1242 AM EDT, Doppler radar and automated rain gauges indicated thunderstorms producing heavy rain across the warned area. Between 1 and 2 inches of rain have fallen. Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches are possible in the warned area. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly. HAZARD...Life threatening flash flooding. Thunderstorms producing flash flooding. SOURCE...Radar and automated gauges. IMPACT...Life threatening flash flooding of creeks and streams, urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses. * Some locations that will experience flash flooding include... Arlington... Centreville... Bethesda... Annandale... College Park... Fairfax... Langley Park... Vienna... Forestville... Falls Church... Bladensburg... Mantua... Pimmit Hills... Mclean... Rosslyn... Howard University... Fort Totten... Gallaudet University... RFK Stadium... Burke