yoda

He edited it to 06z tomorrow morning as the final final call

I don't remember that event

Tuesday afternoon to Thursday look excellent

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1251 PM EDT Sun Jun 13 2021 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Southwestern Garrett County in western Maryland... Northwestern Grant County in eastern West Virginia... * Until 130 PM EDT. * At 1251 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Thomas, moving southeast at 20 mph. HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by downed trees. Localized power outages are possible. Unsecured light objects may become projectiles. * Locations impacted include... Bayard, Wilson, Wilsonia and Beechwood. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building.

Or now lol... but it doesn't have any LWX counties in it https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0264.html

And just before that lol https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0944.html STWatch probably coming soon for i81 corridor in next hour or 2

Severe Thunderstorm Warning WVC023-027-031-057-131630- /O.NEW.KLWX.SV.W.0116.210613T1548Z-210613T1630Z/ BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1148 AM EDT Sun Jun 13 2021 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Northeastern Grant County in eastern West Virginia... Southwestern Mineral County in eastern West Virginia... Northwestern Hardy County in eastern West Virginia... Southwestern Hampshire County in eastern West Virginia... * Until 1230 PM EDT. * At 1147 AM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Elk Garden, or 8 miles southwest of Keyser, moving southeast at 30 mph. HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by downed trees. Localized power outages are possible. Unsecured light objects may become projectiles. * Locations impacted include... Keyser, Elk Garden, Kitzmiller, Burlington, Russelldale, Old Fields, Sulphur City, Purgitsville, Emoryville, Hartmansville, New Creek, Martin, Antioch, Warnocks, Mcneill, Williamsport, Mount Pisgah, Junction and Ridgeville. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. Continuous cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm. Move indoors immediately. Lightning is one of nature`s leading killers. Remember, if you can hear thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

06z NAM soundings suggest we could be rocking and rolling at both 00z and 03z Tuesday - for the late Monday threat

Morning AFD from LWX about today and tomorrow severe threat

Severe wording in all of the zones for this afternoon and evening

LWX AFD from last evening mentioned Monday and talked it up some

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 500 PM EDT THU JUN 10 2021 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0345 PM FLASH FLOOD BALTIMORE 39.30N 76.61W 06/10/2021 BALTIMORE CITY MD 911 CALL CENTER DOZENS OF STREETS CLOSED IN THE NORTHEAST SIDE OF BALTIMORE CITY PER DPW. && EVENT NUMBER LWX2104287

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 453 PM EDT THU JUN 10 2021 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0324 PM FLASH FLOOD BALTIMORE 39.30N 76.61W 06/10/2021 BALTIMORE CITY MD 911 CALL CENTER WATER HIGHER THAN THE FENCES IN THE AREA OF HILLEN ROAD AND 35TH STREET. MULTIPLE NEARBY ROADS CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 459 PM EDT THU JUN 10 2021 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0451 PM FLOOD 2 E WESTMINSTER 39.58N 76.97W 06/10/2021 CARROLL MD EMERGENCY MNGR WATER RESCUE NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF OLD MANCHESTER ROAD AND LUCABAUGH MILL ROAD. && EVENT NUMBER LWX2104286 PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 443 PM EDT THU JUN 10 2021 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0435 PM FLOOD 6 N WESTMINSTER 39.67N 77.01W 06/10/2021 CARROLL MD EMERGENCY MNGR DEEP RUN ROAD FLOODED AND IMPASSABLE.

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 252 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 250 PM MDT Thu Jun 10 2021 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of East-Central/Northeast Montana * Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 250 PM until 1000 PM MDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Scattered severe thunderstorms including some supercells are expected to develop initially across east-central Montana and quickly move north-northeastward through evening. Large hail and severe-caliber wind gusts are the primary hazards, although a tornado could also occur. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 90 statute miles east and west of a line from 75 miles east northeast of Havre MT to 55 miles west southwest of Miles City MT. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).

Wow... 80/80 probs on hail. 50/30 tor probs URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 251 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 225 PM MDT Thu Jun 10 2021 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Northeast Montana Western North Dakota * Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 225 PM until 900 PM MDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes and a couple intense tornadoes possible Widespread large hail and scattered very large hail events to 4 inches in diameter likely Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely SUMMARY...Intense thunderstorms including supercells will likely rapid develop through mid/late afternoon from east-central/northeast Montana into western South Dakota. Of greatest concern as far as intense supercells and a tornado risk will be those storms occurring near a west-east warm front across the region, where low-level moisture/shear will be maximized. A strong tornado is possible. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 80 statute miles north and south of a line from 10 miles north northwest of Wolf Point MT to 70 miles east southeast of Williston ND. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).

@high risk @WxUSAF hmmm... from afternoon AFD from LWX:

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 400 PM EDT THU JUN 10 2021 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0354 PM FLOOD PARKVILLE 39.38N 76.55W 06/10/2021 BALTIMORE MD 911 CALL CENTER CAR STRANDED IN WATER NEAR INTERSECTION OF HARRIS AVE AND RADER AVE. && EVENT NUMBER LWX2104280 PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 409 PM EDT THU JUN 10 2021 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0336 PM FLOOD 1 WSW CARNEY 39.40N 76.54W 06/10/2021 BALTIMORE MD BROADCAST MEDIA CARS STRANDED IN WATER IN THE PARKING LOT OF HARFORD HILLS ELEMENTARY SCHOOL. && EVENT NUMBER LWX2104281

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Flash Flood Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 337 PM EDT Thu Jun 10 2021 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Flash Flood Warning for... Central Baltimore County in northern Maryland... The Baltimore City in northern Maryland... * Until 900 PM EDT. * At 337 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing heavy rain across the warned area. Between 2 and 4 inches of rain have fallen. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly. Local emergency management officials report numerous road closures due to high water and stream gauges on Beaverdam Run and Minebank Run indicate rapidly rising waters. HAZARD...Life threatening flash flooding. Thunderstorms producing flash flooding. SOURCE...Doppler radar. IMPACT...Life threatening flash flooding of creeks and streams, urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses. * Some locations that may experience flash flooding include... Baltimore... Cockeysville... Towson... Parkville... Carney... Perry Hall... Rossville... Mays Chapel... Timonium... White Marsh... Hampton... Kingsville... Lutherville-Timonium... Lutherville... Loch Raven... Long Green... Glen Arm... Loch Raven Village... Hydes... Eudowood...

Mesoscale Discussion 0908 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Thu Jun 10 2021 Areas affected...far northeast MT...western ND Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely Valid 101956Z - 102130Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...Convective initiation is expected between 20-21 UTC along the dryline over eastern MN near the ND border. Explosive growth into significant-severe producing supercells is forecast late this afternoon into the early evening. DISCUSSION...Visible-satellite imagery shows a swelling band of agitated cumulus along the dryline over far eastern MT near Sydney. Temperatures immediately east of the dryline have warmed into the lower 80s with a deepening boundary layer featuring low to mid 60s deg F dewpoints. The 18 UTC Glasgow, MT raob showed a very steep 700-500 mb lapse rate (8.6 deg C/km). Modifying the raob for 19 UTC surface conditions east of the dryline near the ND/MT border (i.e., Sydney, MT) yielded 3300 J/kg MLCAPE with very little convective inhibition remaining. As the cap erodes, expecting explosive updraft growth quickly evolving into a few discrete supercells. Giant hail (3+ inches in diameter) is possible with the stronger storms as the organize and move northeast into a less deeply mixed and more moisture rich environment near the warm front. Supercell tornadoes will be possible in vicinity of the warm front, in addition to the hail/severe gust hazard. Other isolated storms are forecast to eventually develop southward along the dryline into parts of southwest ND and northwest SD. Large to giant hail will be the primary hazard with these storms before additional thunderstorm development into a severe squall line evolves later this evening. ..Smith/Guyer.. 06/10/2021 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW...

I hear nothing here in Fairfax

First FW of the day BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Flood Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 303 PM EDT Thu Jun 10 2021 MDC013-110115- /O.NEW.KLWX.FA.W.0026.210610T1903Z-210611T0115Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Carroll MD- 303 PM EDT Thu Jun 10 2021 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Flood Warning for... Northeastern Carroll County in north central Maryland... * Until 915 PM EDT Thursday. * At 303 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain due to thunderstorms. Flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly in the warned area. Between 1 and 3 inches of rain have fallen. Some locations that may experience flooding include... Westminster... Manchester... Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches are possible in the warned area.

Well the one near Thurmont in Frederick County just got warned ETA -- and so did the one up in Baltimore County

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 AM CDT Thu Jun 10 2021 Valid 101630Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely late this afternoon and tonight across much of the northern and central Plains, especially across eastern Montana, the Dakotas, and Nebraska. All severe hazards are possible, including very large hail, wind gusts above 70 mph, and a few tornadoes. ...Northern/central Plains including Dakotas/Nebraska/E Montana... An active severe-weather day is expected across the region late this afternoon and tonight and have upgraded parts of the western Dakotas to a categorical Moderate Risk, with much of this regional risk expected to persist well through the late-night hours. 12Z upper-air analysis/soundings essentially sampled near-record moisture content by early/mid-June standards across the High Plains in terms of mean mixing ratios/850mb dewpoints, including locations such as Dodge City/North Platte/Rapid City/Bismarck/Glasgow Montana, although mid-level/700 mb temperatures were notably warm (near-record values) at these locations as well. Thunderstorms should develop initially this afternoon into early evening near the surface low and adjoining frontal segments over eastern Montana and the western Dakotas. Supercells capable of all hazards (tornado, large to giant hail, severe wind gusts) are expected in the first few hours of the convective cycle. This should be followed by a transition to one or more organized convective complexes with a dominant destructive-wind hazard, with isolated severe hail and possibly some tornado threat. During and after that transition, very damaging gusts to hurricane force may be observed through the evening and possibly the early overnight hours. Very steep mid-level lapse rates will overlie a corridor of moist/theta-e advection and diurnal heating south of the warm front and east of the low/cold front. This will contribute to MLCAPE strengthening into the 2000-3000 J/kg range (locally higher), amidst intensifying deep shear (effective-shear magnitudes reaching 35-50 kt). Low-level shear should be maximized along the warm front and east of the surface low across eastern Montana and western North Dakota. Farther south across portions of South Dakota/Nebraska and perhaps northeast Colorado, high-based supercells should form late this afternoon/early evening near the dryline/lee trough, offering significant hail and severe gusts. However, this activity may evolve upscale more quickly to a QLCS configuration with a dominant wind threat. Deep, well-mixed sub-cloud layers will support maintenance of both severe hail and gusts to the surface during earlier, relatively discrete stages, but also, foster quick cold-pool aggregations and rapid expansion. Forced ascent of a foregoing boundary layer containing 60s to near 70 F surface dew points, with MLCAPE commonly remaining above 2000 J/kg even well after sunset, will help to drive the severe-wind threat southeastward over much of Nebraska tonight.

Wow... 1630 SPC went all in... 45 hatched wind and hail with 10% tor in NW ND/extreme NE MT Though that's the smallest 45% hail contour region I've seen in a while lol