yoda

Orange peels blocking the sun?

Mesoscale Discussion 0368 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1020 AM CDT Wed Apr 03 2024 Areas affected...Portions of northern NC into VA...MD...and DE Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 031520Z - 031715Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...The threat for severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging winds, a few tornadoes and perhaps some hail should gradually increase over the next couple of hours. Watch issuance will probably be needed. DISCUSSION...15Z surface observations show a front draped southwest to northeast across VA into MD/DE, with a surface low centered over southwest VA. This low is forecast to slowly deepen as it develops northeastward along the front towards central VA/MD by late this afternoon. Although clouds remain widespread across much of the Mid-Atlantic, a moist and gradually destabilizing airmass is present along/south of the front into NC. A lobe of ascent associated with the left exit region of a strong upper-level jet and a mid-level vorticity maximum over the central Appalachians will likely encourage additional convective development in the next 1-2 hours across western into central VA. This activity will likely become organized, with the potential for a mix of small bowing clusters and supercells possible given the presence of very strong deep-layer shear. Instability may tend to remain fairly muted given the widespread cloud cover. Still, MLCAPE around 500-1000 J/kg should eventually develop with continued low-level warming/moistening, and given steepened mid-level lapse rates noted on the 12Z RNK sounding. Damaging winds will be possible with any robust cluster that can develop and track northeastward. A tornado threat should exist with any supercell, as 0-1 km shear of 35-40 kt and ample effective SRH should encourage low-level updraft rotation. Isolated hail may also occur with any convection that can remain semi-discrete. Given expectations for a gradually increasing severe threat in the next 1-2 hours, watch issuance will probably be needed. ..Gleason/Thompson.. 04/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK...

Sounds like a Tornado Watch coming soon per MCD

It's snow time! URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1113 AM EDT Wed Apr 3 2024 MDZ001-VAZ503-WVZ501-505-032315- /O.NEW.KLWX.WW.Y.0014.240404T1200Z-240405T0400Z/ Garrett-Western Highland-Western Grant-Western Pendleton- 1113 AM EDT Wed Apr 3 2024 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM THURSDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT THURSDAY NIGHT... * WHAT...Snow expected. Total accumulations ranging from 4 to 6 inches above 3,500 feet, 2 to 4 inches between 2,500 and 3,500 feet, and a coating to an inch or two below 2,500 feet. Additional snow accumulation is expected overnight Thursday through Friday. * WHERE...In Maryland, Garrett County. In Virginia, Western Highland County. In West Virginia, Western Grant and Western Pendleton Counties. * WHEN...From 8 AM Thursday to midnight EDT Thursday night. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact morning and evening commute. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Be prepared for rapidly changing conditions with bursts of heavier snow showers and snow squalls. Visibility will rapidly drop below one-quarter mile at times with roads changing from wet to snow covered at times. The most impacts will be above 2,500 feet in elevation. Interstate 68 will be impacted by this. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Slow down and use caution while traveling. When venturing outside, watch your first few steps taken on steps, sidewalks, and driveways, which could be icy and slippery, increasing your risk of a fall and injury.

Winter Storm Warning up for Snowshoe... 4 to 6 inches expected

Surprising the sun has appeared here

SLGT still up on 1300z SPC OTLK Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0726 AM CDT Wed Apr 03 2024 Valid 031300Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND FAR SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA...AND FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES... ...SUMMARY... Strong to occasionally severe thunderstorms are possible today from parts of the Mid-Atlantic states to Florida. Damaging gusts and an isolated risk for a tornado or two are the primary hazards. ...Mid-Atlantic states into the coastal Carolinas and GA/FL... Morning water-vapor imagery shows a deep-layer cyclone centered over southern Lake Michigan and this feature will slowly migrate east into OH during the period. Occluded low over southern Great Lakes will slowly fill as a secondary cyclone deepens as it moves from NC/VA this morning to south/east of Long Island late tonight. A cold front will sweep east across the Southeast and through much of the FL Peninsula. Strong to severe thunderstorm activity this morning concentrated over the FL Panhandle and southern GA will continue to progress east to the immediate southeast of an intense mid-level speed max over the southern Appalachians. The airmass south and east of the front in north FL and southern GA will slowly heat/destabilize today despite relatively poor 850-500 mb lapse rates (reference 10z Cape Canaveral and 12z Tampa and Jacksonville raobs). Strengthening and gradually veering flow with height will support organized line segments and occasional supercell structures embedded within the convective band. A tornado or two and damaging gusts will be possible with the stronger activity through midday. As this activity pushes southeastward over north FL into the central part of the Peninsula this afternoon, wind damage will likely become the primary severe hazard of concern. Farther north, strong mid-level height falls and the aforementioned deepening of the low will invoke a strong mass response across the Mid-Atlantic states. Relatively rich low-level moisture over NC this morning (low to mid 60s surface dewpoints) will advance northward in tandem with a warm front as the low develops northeast during the day. Model guidance indicates a band of scattered thunderstorms will develop over central VA by early afternoon and move east towards the coast. A few of the stronger storms will potentially evolve into supercells and/or organized line segments with damaging gusts/tornado as the main threats. Farther south over central NC into northeast SC, some stabilizing influence from early morning convection (reference the 12z Charleston raob) and large-scale ascent focusing farther north lends uncertainty on coverage/magnitude of the severe risk near/south of VA/NC border. Have lowered severe probabilities in parts of NC/SC to account for this observational trend and forecast scenario.

SLGT risk of severe today from the BR and east... MRGL from just east of the i81 corridor to BR 2/15/15... but 5 tor probs for S MD Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1246 AM CDT Wed Apr 03 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC TO FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Strong to occasionally severe thunderstorms are possible on today from the Mid-Atlantic to Florida. Primary hazard is damaging gusts, but isolated hail and a tornado or two is also possible. Isolated hail and a strong gust or two are also possible from southeast Oregon into central Idaho. ...Synopsis... A mid-latitude cyclone is forecast to deepen/mature as it moves slowly eastward on today. Strong upper/mid-level flow will accompany this cyclone, with 120 kt of 500 mb flow extending throughout its eastern periphery from the Southeast through the Mid-Atlantic States during the afternoon and evening. Occluded surface low associated with this system currently over southern Lake Michigan will drift slowly eastward beneath the upper cyclone. A secondary triple point low is currently developing to the southeast of the occluded low, and this low will likely be over the southwest VA vicinity later this morning. Expectation is for this low to progress northeastward throughout the day, while the cold front that extends southward from this low sweeps eastward. Farther west, a deepening upper trough will approach the Pacific Northwest coast late tonight/early Thursday morning. Enhanced southwesterly flow preceding this trough will spread gradually eastward across the Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies. ...Mid-Atlantic southeastward to Florida... Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing along and ahead of the cold front mentioned in the synopsis, from the Mid-Atlantic southwestward into the eastern FL Panhandle. Air mass preceding this front will be characterized by ample low-level moisture (i.e. dewpoints in the mid/upper 60s), but poor lapse rates and relatively modest buoyancy. In contrast, robust wind fields will support strong vertical shear, with 0-6 km bulk shear likely around 60 to 70 kt. Consequently, even with limited buoyancy, a few stronger storms embedded within the broader convective line are possible. Damaging gusts are the primary severe risk, but isolated marginal hail and/or a brief tornado are also possible. The land area ahead of the front will be limited across GA and the Carolinas where the outflow-augmented front will likely push offshore by the early afternoon. Farther north in the Mid-Atlantic, additional storm development is possible near the surface low during the afternoon as moist southerly low-level flow facilitates air mass destabilization in the wake of the morning activity. Kinematic fields will remain very strong, and these storms will likely pose a severe risk as they move rapidly northeastward. Damaging gusts are the primary risk, but a tornado or two is possible as well.

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 134 AM EDT Wed Apr 3 2024 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Western Allegany County in western Maryland... Garrett County in western Maryland... Northern Grant County in eastern West Virginia... Mineral County in eastern West Virginia... Central Hampshire County in eastern West Virginia... * Until 215 AM EDT. * At 133 AM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Thomas, moving northeast at 40 mph. HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by downed trees. Localized power outages are possible. Unsecured light objects may become projectiles. * Locations impacted include... Cumberland, Frostburg, Keyser, Mountain Lake Park, Oakland, Westernport, Romney, Bel Air, Bayard, Bittinger, La Vale, Fort Ashby, Lonaconing, Piedmont, Loch Lynn Heights, Deer Park, Elk Garden, Kitzmiller, Cresaptown, and Potomac Park. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Remain alert for a possible tornado! Tornadoes can develop quickly from severe thunderstorms. If you spot a tornado go at once into the basement or small central room in a sturdy structure. For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. &&

Afternoon update (1730z OTLK) from SPC is late... wonder if the SLGT risk will be pulled back west some at all

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1209 PM EDT Tue Apr 2 2024 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Highland County in western Virginia... Pendleton County in eastern West Virginia... South central Grant County in eastern West Virginia... * Until 115 PM EDT. * At 1208 PM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line extending from Stonewall Jackson to 8 miles west of Holly River State Park to near Leonard, moving east at 75 mph. HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by downed trees. Localized power outages are possible. Unsecured light objects may become projectiles. * Locations impacted include... Franklin, Monterey, Brandywine, Upper Tract, Doe Hill, Head Waters, Brushy Run, Bolar, Riverton, Deer Run, Liberty, Circleville, Ruddle, Williamsville, Oak Flat, Vanderpool, Sirons Mill, Hightown, Onego, and Clover Creek. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. && LAT...LON 3836 7973 3862 7962 3866 7963 3867 7959 3878 7951 3889 7952 3890 7945 3893 7945 3892 7937 3896 7935 3877 7908 3850 7922 3841 7932 3838 7931 3822 7944 3822 7948 3818 7952 3822 7971 3827 7980 3831 7981 TIME...MOT...LOC 1608Z 279DEG 66KT 3898 8045 3865 8050 3817 8038 HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

RLX's (Charleston WV) new STW is pushing up against the LWX CWA in W VA...

Could then mean a large hail producer

12z 3km NAM tries to blast through something fierce at 02z into DC metro area... not sure if it's a supercell or what

NWUS51 KRLX 021445 LSRRLX Preliminary Local Storm Report National Weather Service Charleston WV 1045 AM EDT Tue Apr 2 2024 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 1025 AM Tstm Wnd Dmg 2 SW Westwood 38.46N 82.70W 04/02/2024 Boyd KY Emergency Mngr Trailer overturned and houses nearby destroyed.

000 NWUS51 KRLX 021440 LSRRLX Preliminary Local Storm Report National Weather Service Charleston WV 1040 AM EDT Tue Apr 2 2024 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 1030 AM Tstm Wnd Gst 2 S Ceredo 38.37N 82.56W 04/02/2024 M92 MPH Wayne WV ASOS

ASOS just reported 92mph gust with that line in WV that had went through Kentucky

Updated morning AFD from LWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1025 AM EDT Tue Apr 2 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A frontal boundary lingers in the vicinity of the area through mid week. Unsettled weather is expected as multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms impact the region. A series of cold fronts sweep through the area Wednesday and Thursday bringing windy conditions that last through the weekend. High pressure builds overhead Sunday into early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... An initial round of showers and a few thunderstorms were exiting NE MD as of mid morning. We are currently watching MCS activity over the OH Valley that looks to move into the area this afternoon. Near-surface stability will remain, but mid- level lapse rates of 6-7 C/km will contribute to MUCAPE of around 500 J/kg. This will result in a threat for isolated thunder and possibly some spotty small hail if individual updrafts are able to maintain enough persistent vigor and tap into the increasing mid-level flow/shear. The severe weather risk should remain very low until nightfall per latest obs/trends, but may increase at least conditionally thereafter as stronger height falls move in. In addition, instances of flooding are appearing increasingly likely across the northern half of the CWA as additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms traverse increasingly saturated soils

Flood Watch National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1019 AM EDT Tue Apr 2 2024 DCZ001-MDZ004>006-008-011-013-014-503>508-VAZ038>040-051-053-054-501- 502-505-506-526-527-022230- /O.EXB.KLWX.FA.A.0007.000000T0000Z-240403T2200Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ District of Columbia-Frederick MD-Carroll-Northern Baltimore- Cecil-Southern Baltimore-Prince Georges-Anne Arundel-Northwest Montgomery-Central and Southeast Montgomery-Northwest Howard- Central and Southeast Howard-Northwest Harford-Southeast Harford- Greene-Madison-Rappahannock-Culpeper-Fairfax-Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria-Northern Fauquier-Southern Fauquier-Western Loudoun-Eastern Loudoun-Northwest Prince William-Central and Southeast Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park- Including the cities of Purcellville, Ashburn, Frederick, Laurel, Cockeysville, Falls Church, Ballenger Creek, Annapolis, Camp Springs, Sterling, Washington, Bethesda, Manassas, Suitland-Silver Hill, South Gate, Culpeper, Leesburg, Severn, Arnold, Warrenton, Elkton, Columbia, Glen Burnie, Westminster, Chantilly, Damascus, McLean, Odenton, College Park, Centreville, Rockville, Ellicott City, Arlington, Montclair, Jarrettsville, Haymarket, Madison, Lake Ridge, Stanardsville, Reisterstown, Baltimore, Bowie, Annandale, Dale City, Clinton, Lisbon, Greenbelt, Aberdeen, Silver Spring, Reston, Germantown, Severna Park, Gaithersburg, Herndon, Eldersburg, Woodbridge, Alexandria, Franconia, and Turnbull 1019 AM EDT Tue Apr 2 2024 ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON... * WHAT...Flooding caused by excessive rainfall is possible. * WHERE...District of Columbia, and portions of Maryland, including the following areas, Anne Arundel, Carroll, Cecil, Central and Southeast Howard, Central and Southeast Montgomery, Frederick MD, Northern Baltimore, Northwest Harford, Northwest Howard, Northwest Montgomery, Prince Georges, Southeast Harford and Southern Baltimore, and Virginia, including the following areas, Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria, Central and Southeast Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park, Culpeper, Eastern Loudoun, Fairfax, Greene, Madison, Northern Fauquier, Northwest Prince William, Rappahannock, Southern Fauquier and Western Loudoun. * WHEN...Through Wednesday afternoon. * IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected through Wednesday. One to two inches of rain is most likely, with localized amounts up to 4 inches possible. This may result in flooding of small streams and creeks. Flash flooding is possible. - Please visit www.weather.gov/safety/flood for flood safety and preparedness information

Here come the Flood Watches Flood Watch National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1019 AM EDT Tue Apr 2 2024 MDZ003-VAZ027>031-507-WVZ050>053-055-022230- /O.EXB.KLWX.FA.A.0007.000000T0000Z-240403T1600Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Washington-Shenandoah-Frederick VA-Page-Warren-Clarke-Northern Virginia Blue Ridge-Hampshire-Morgan-Berkeley-Jefferson-Hardy- Including the cities of Front Royal, Romney, Mount Jackson, Shepherdstown, New Market, Stanley, Shenandoah, Strasburg, Moorefield, Martinsburg, Big Meadows, Hagerstown, Luray, Charles Town, Paw Paw, Berryville, Woodstock, and Winchester 1019 AM EDT Tue Apr 2 2024 ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING... * WHAT...Flooding caused by excessive rainfall is possible. * WHERE...Portions of north central Maryland, including the following area, Washington, northwest Virginia, including the following areas, Clarke, Frederick VA, Northern Virginia Blue Ridge, Page, Shenandoah and Warren, and West Virginia, including the following areas, Berkeley, Hampshire, Hardy, Jefferson and Morgan. * WHEN...Through Wednesday morning. * IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected through Wednesday. One to two inches of rain is most likely, with localized amounts up to 4 inches possible. This may result in flooding of small streams and creeks. Flash flooding is possible. - Please visit www.weather.gov/safety/flood for flood safety and preparedness information

Flood Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1010 AM EDT Tue Apr 2 2024 MDC003-027-021715- /O.NEW.KLWX.FA.W.0023.240402T1410Z-240402T1715Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Anne Arundel MD-Howard MD- 1010 AM EDT Tue Apr 2 2024 ...FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 115 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON... * WHAT...Flooding caused by excessive rainfall earlier this morning is expected. * WHERE...A portion of central Maryland, around Elkridge Maryland in the following counties, Anne Arundel and Howard. * WHEN...Until 115 PM EDT. * IMPACTS...Flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations is imminent or occurring. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - At 1008 AM EDT, Doppler radar and automated rain gauges indicated heavy rain due to thunderstorms earlier this morning. Flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly in the warned area. Between 1 and 1.5 inches of rain have fallen. - Some locations that will experience flooding include... Elkridge... Arbutus... Ferndale... Brooklyn Park... Linthicum... Lansdowne... Linthicum Heights... Hanover... - This includes the following Flood Prone Roads... Route 1 at Levering Avenue near the Patapsco, Route 1 at Pine Avenue, Race Road along Deep Run and Furnace Avenue at Ridge Road. - Please visit www.weather.gov/safety/flood for flood safety and preparedness information

When you say low-level warm air, is that related to or correlate with the warm front? Or is it something different?

Morning AFD from LWX on the threats couple of rounds of thunderstorms moves across the area this afternoon and evening, and some of these are likely to be strong to severe. In areas where the CAD remains the severe threat is going to be from elevated storms producing hail. Model soundings indicate around 1000-2000 J/kg of MUCAPE and strong shear will be present, so some of these storms could produce large hail of 1 to 2". SPC has the CAD area in a Marginal Risk for severe storms today. The Slight Risk for severe storms has been expanded slightly eastward along/south of I-66 to the Fredericksburg area, and extends west along US-48 up through western MD. This is where storms pushing in from the OH Valley will have the most favorable environment of surface-based instability, strong shear, and large scale forcing for ascent. Given the cold temperatures aloft and elevated instability present, it is certainly possible a few supercells develop along the I-64 corridor that are capable of producing hail of 2" or greater. A tornado or two cannot be rule out, though that threat is confined to the far southwestern CWA (peak threat around Highland County). After the main severe threat window passes, expect a wet night as widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms continue moving across the area. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... The large cutoff low over the OH Valley slowly pivots eastward toward the Mid-Atlantic. Strong forcing for ascent is going to be present across the region, with widespread showers and embedded thunderstorms ongoing sunrise Wednesday. As the morning progresses, a wave of low pressure will cross east of the Blue Ridge, rapidly deepening as it moves toward southern NJ. A broken line of showers and thunderstorms is likely to develop along/east of US-15, then rapidly push eastward across the area through Wednesday afternoon. Even though instability is low, there will be an incredible amount of shear as the triple point of the surface low crosses the area. In addition to damaging winds, QLCS tornadoes will be a possibility. SPC has upgraded parts of the area to a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5), with a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for most areas along and east of the Blue Ridge.

Day 2 OTLK out... SLGT risk i95 and east... MGRL i81 to i95... 2/15/15... this is for Wednesday