yoda

Doesn't usually happen around here Short Term Forecast National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 529 PM EDT Tue Sep 28 2021 VAZ038-039-050-282200- Greene-Madison-Orange- 529 PM EDT Tue Sep 28 2021 .NOW... At 529 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm near Stanardsville, or 7 miles southwest of Madison, moving southeast at 15 mph. Gusty winds of 40 to 50 mph and small hail are possible with this storm. These storms have a history of producing hail that covers the ground. Be alert for slippery travel conditions. Locations impacted include... Orange, Stanardsville, Montpelier Station, Madison Run, Pratts, Rochelle, Newtown, Aroda, Madison Mills, Montford, Old Somerset, Shelby, Dawsonville, Twymans Mill, Wolftown, Somerset, Hood, Locust Dale, Burtonville and Rapidan.

Hmmm... related?

Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 451 PM EDT Tue Sep 28 2021 VAC079-165-282130- /O.CON.KLWX.SV.W.0530.000000T0000Z-210928T2130Z/ Rockingham VA-Greene VA- 451 PM EDT Tue Sep 28 2021 ...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 530 PM EDT FOR SOUTHEASTERN ROCKINGHAM AND GREENE COUNTIES... At 451 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Massanutten, or 11 miles southeast of Harrisonburg, moving southeast at 25 mph. HAZARD...Golf ball size hail and 60 mph wind gusts. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Expect wind damage to trees and power lines. Hail is large enough to dent and damage vehicles. Some hail damage to roofs, siding, and windows is possible. Locations impacted include... Massanutten, Stanardsville, Elkton, Ruckersville, Mcmullen, Rocky Bar, Quinque, Lydia, Haneytown, Mission Home, Swift Run, Amicus, Mcgaheysville, Saint George and Shady Grove. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. && LAT...LON 3825 7859 3827 7865 3827 7866 3837 7876 3844 7872 3837 7843 3832 7838 3832 7837 3831 7836 3820 7841 TIME...MOT...LOC 2051Z 297DEG 21KT 3837 7868 THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...1.75 IN WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

Hurricane Sam Discussion Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182021 500 PM AST Mon Sep 27 2021 Sam's weakening trend ended earlier today, with the intensity likely bottoming out between the issuance of the previous advisory and now. Over the past few hours, microwave data and satellite imagery indicate that the inner core and eyewall of the hurricane are making a comeback. There is now a clear eye in visible imagery, convective cloud tops colder than -65 degrees C wrap completely around the center, and the convective mass is becoming more circular once again. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft currently investigating Sam indicates the central pressure has dropped to 957 mb, with peak 700-mb flight-level winds of 106 kt, SFMR values of 100 kt, and dropsonde surface winds of 102 kt. Given possible minor undersampling and the recent dropping of the hurricane's pressure, the initial advisory intensity is set at 105 kt. Sam continues to move northwest, or 315/8 kt. The hurricane is expected to continue this northwestward motion around a subtropical ridge over the next few days. By late Thursday or early Friday a turn toward the north is anticipated as Sam rounds the western periphery of the ridge. The cyclone should begin to gradually accelerate during that time in the increasing flow ahead of a mid- to upper-level trough emerging off the U.S. east coast later this week. Model guidance remains in very good agreement on this scenario and the latest NHC forecast track is little changed from the previous one, and lies near tightly clustered consensus track guidance. The southwesterly winds that brought in some dry air and disrupted Sam's impressive satellite appearance last night appear to have abated. As long as environmental winds surrounding the hurricane remain light, then the dry air surrounding the cyclone should not have as much of an impact on the hurricane's strength over the next few days. Based on the improving inner-core structure appearance of Sam, re-strengthening is forecast over the next 12 h. Thereafter, mainly minor fluctuations in intensity are indicated through 72 h. Beyond that time, increasing vertical wind shear and decreasing sea-surface temperatures should cause Sam to weaken. The latest NHC intensity forecast was nudged slightly upward through 36 h and is on the high end of the guidance. Thereafter, no changes were made, and that portion of the forecast is close to the various multimodel consensus solutions. Key Messages: 1. Large swells generated by Sam are affecting the Leeward Islands and will spread to portions of the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, the Bahamas, and Bermuda by Thursday or Friday. Significant swells will likely reach the east coast of the United States and Atlantic Canada by the weekend. These swells will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions, and beachgoers and other interests along these coasts are urged to follow the advice of lifeguards and local officials through the upcoming weekend. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/2100Z 16.3N 52.7W 105 KT 120 MPH 12H 28/0600Z 17.0N 53.5W 115 KT 130 MPH 24H 28/1800Z 17.8N 54.6W 115 KT 130 MPH 36H 29/0600Z 18.8N 55.8W 115 KT 130 MPH 48H 29/1800Z 19.8N 57.3W 110 KT 125 MPH 60H 30/0600Z 21.2N 59.0W 110 KT 125 MPH 72H 30/1800Z 22.9N 60.5W 110 KT 125 MPH 96H 01/1800Z 27.8N 62.0W 105 KT 120 MPH 120H 02/1800Z 34.7N 59.6W 100 KT 115 MPH $$ Forecaster Latto

Hurricane Sam Advisory Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182021 500 PM AST Mon Sep 27 2021 ...SAM BEGINNING TO REGROUP AFTER WEAKENING... ...SOME REINTENSIFICATION EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.3N 52.7W ABOUT 700 MI...1125 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...957 MB...28.26 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Sam was located near latitude 16.3 North, longitude 52.7 West. Sam is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue for the next few days, with an increase in forward speed beginning on Thursday. A turn to the north is expected by Friday. On the forecast track, Sam will pass well to the northeast of the northern Leeward Islands Wednesday and Thursday. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicates that the maximum sustained winds are near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher gusts. Sam is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some strengthening is expected through tonight. Thereafter, fluctuations in intensity are possible through Thursday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km). The minimum central pressure measured by the aircraft is 957 mb (28.26 inches).

LWX seems a bit interested in tomorrow's severe risk with its afternoon AFD As the shortwave pulls out by early afternoon, a cold front associated with a deep upper level trough will start to migrate through the area. With peak daytime heating in place, this disturbance may become a bit more organized in nature. MUCAPE values continue to look fairly strong with 2000+ j/kg possible east of I-81 during the afternoon and evening hours. Bulk shear values continue to moderately impress with 30 to 35 knots. Guidance continues to favor the strongest storms along and east of I-95 by the evening hours. Some strong to severe storms are possible east of I-81 but especially along and east of the I-95 corridor. Main threats for these storms will be for damaging winds and large hail. Peak strength looks to be anywhere from 6 to 10 pm before peak heating diminishes. With a lack of strong upper level forcing, coverage looks to remain scattered in nature but will continue to monitor the latest guidance.

No one has done the tiebreaker lol ETA: @nw baltimore wx just did

Still MRGL at 1730z... interesting

Wouldn't be surprised to see SLGT risk appear on 1730z OTLK from SPC

I know it was only one pass... but 943mb to 966mb in 12 hours... wow Dry air really did a number on Sam until recently

12z NAM at KDCA for both 18z and 21z TUES shows quite a large amount of SARS loose matches for severe hail... and even supercells

Looking at the 12z NAM soundings... I'd think 2500 SBCAPE with LI in the -7 to -9 range is a bit overdone... but hmmm ConvT is in the low 80s... should breach that in the afternoon

AFD was discussing 1000 CAPE with potential of over 2000

MRGL for Tuesday... 0/5/5

Hurricane Sam Discussion Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182021 500 AM AST Mon Sep 27 2021 The satellite presentation of Sam deteriorated overnight, as GOES-16 infrared imagery showed periodic disruptions to Sam's inner core convection. The eye has not been readily apparent in conventional satellite imagery for much of the night, although very recent imagery suggests an eye could be re-emerging. Data from the reconnaissance aircraft last night indicated that an eyewall replacement cycle (ERC) was underway, and some dry mid-level air impinging on the western side of the circulation could also be negatively impacting Sam. No recent high-resolution microwave data is available, but an earlier scatterometer pass revealed that the tropical-storm-force wind radii had expanded just a bit in the eastern semicircle of the hurricane. The initial intensity is lowered to 115 kt for this advisory based on a blend of the objective and subjective Dvorak current intensity estimates. A NOAA hurricane hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate Sam later this morning, which will provide crucial data to assess changes in Sam's structure and intensity. The initial motion is estimated to be northwestward, or 315/7 kt. A subtropical ridge to the north and northeast of Sam will remain the primary steering mechanism over the next several days, and Sam is expected to maintain a northwestward heading through midweek. Then, a mid- to upper-level trough is forecast to dig southward over the western Atlantic late this week. The deep-layer southerly flow ahead of this feature should cause Sam to move faster toward the north-northwest by 96 h, followed by a northward acceleration thereafter. The NHC forecast track is shifted slightly to the right of the previous one through the first 48-60 h of the forecast period, which accounts for the more northwestward initial motion observed during the past 12 h. Otherwise, the NHC track is virtually unchanged as the guidance has remained fairly consistent. Sam's intensity has likely peaked now that an ERC has commenced, but environmental conditions should allow Sam to persist as a major hurricane for the next several days. Sea-surface temperatures are expected to be 28 deg C or greater along Sam's track through 120 h, and the vertical wind shear is forecast to remain weak (< 10 kt) through at least midweek. Thus, the official NHC intensity forecast only shows very gradual weakening during the next several days, generally following the HCCA and IVCN consensus aids. Given the lower initial intensity of Sam, the latest NHC forecast is once again lower than the previous one. By 120 h, southerly shear associated with the deep-layer trough is forecast to increase over Sam, which should induce more weakening by this weekend. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/0900Z 15.2N 51.4W 115 KT 130 MPH 12H 27/1800Z 15.9N 52.2W 115 KT 130 MPH 24H 28/0600Z 16.8N 53.3W 115 KT 130 MPH 36H 28/1800Z 17.7N 54.4W 115 KT 130 MPH 48H 29/0600Z 18.6N 55.6W 110 KT 125 MPH 60H 29/1800Z 19.6N 57.1W 110 KT 125 MPH 72H 30/0600Z 21.0N 58.8W 110 KT 125 MPH 96H 01/0600Z 24.9N 61.6W 110 KT 125 MPH 120H 02/0600Z 30.5N 62.0W 105 KT 120 MPH $$ Forecaster Reinhart

Hurricane Sam Advisory Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182021 500 AM AST Mon Sep 27 2021 ...SAM EXPECTED TO REMAIN A MAJOR HURRICANE FOR SEVERAL DAYS... ...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT TO INVESTIGATE SAM LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.2N 51.4W ABOUT 800 MI...1290 KM ESE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...952 MB...28.12 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Sam was located near latitude 15.2 North, longitude 51.4 West. Sam is moving toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). This general motion is expected to continue for the next several days, with an increase in forward speed beginning on Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher gusts. Sam is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Little change in strength is expected during the next day or so. Thereafter, some slow weakening is forecast through midweek, although Sam should remain a major hurricane. Sam is a small hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 952 mb (28.12 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Sam will reach the Lesser Antilles today and impact these islands for the next several days. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$

Hurricane Sam Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182021 500 AM AST Sun Sep 26 2021 Sam remains a small but intense hurricane this morning, with a well-defined 10 n mi-wide eye. A 0500 UTC AMSR-2 microwave pass reveals Sam has a compact inner core of deep convection surrounding its eye, with curved convective bands primarily extending around the northern and eastern portions of the circulation. Infrared cloud top temperatures briefly warmed overnight in portions of Sam's central dense overcast, perhaps due to some intrusions of drier mid-level air. The 06z objective and subjective satellite estimates ranged from 113-127 kt, but Sam's satellite presentation has improved in recent infrared imagery as cloud top temperatures are cooling around the eye. Thus, the initial intensity is held at 125 kt for this advisory. NOAA aircraft are scheduled to investigate Sam later this afternoon, which should provide helpful information about the structure and intensity of the hurricane. Sam is moving toward the west-northwest, or 295/7 kt. A deep-layer subtropical ridge to the north and northeast of Sam should generally steer the hurricane west-northwestward to northwestward for the next several days. By midweek, an amplifying upper-level trough will move off the east coast of the U.S. and dig southward over the western Atlantic, which will erode the western extent of the steering ridge. The deep-layer southerly flow ahead of the trough should cause Sam to begin recurving, with a somewhat faster north-northwestward motion forecast by day 5. The latest NHC track forecast is very similar to the previous one and generally lies between the HFIP corrected consensus approach (HCCA) and TVCA aids. At days 4-5, there is more spread in the track guidance, with the ECMWF on the far left side of the guidance envelope and the GFS on the far right. The NHC forecast track has been nudged just slightly to the left at 96 and 120 h, but it still lies to the right of HCCA. The hurricane will likely experience some fluctuations in intensity during the next day or two. On the one hand, Sam remains over warm sea-surface temperatures of around 28.5 deg C, with vertical wind shear less than 10 kt as diagnosed from the SHIPS guidance. However, GOES-16 water vapor imagery shows some drier mid-level air in the surrounding environment that may periodically entrain into the inner core of Sam. Additionally, the onset of an eyewall replacement cycle remains a distinct possibility at this stage of Sam's life cycle, although the latest microwave data does not suggest one is imminent. The official NHC intensity forecast lies on the high end of the guidance for the first 36-48 h of the forecast period. Thereafter, the NHC forecast trends closer to the HCCA and IVCN consensus aids. Some gradual weakening is forecast later in the period as the southwesterly vertical wind shear begins to increase, but Sam is still forecast to remain a major hurricane through the 5-day period. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/0900Z 13.8N 49.7W 125 KT 145 MPH 12H 26/1800Z 14.3N 50.6W 125 KT 145 MPH 24H 27/0600Z 15.0N 51.8W 120 KT 140 MPH 36H 27/1800Z 15.8N 52.9W 120 KT 140 MPH 48H 28/0600Z 16.6N 53.9W 115 KT 130 MPH 60H 28/1800Z 17.5N 55.0W 115 KT 130 MPH 72H 29/0600Z 18.4N 56.3W 115 KT 130 MPH 96H 30/0600Z 20.8N 59.3W 110 KT 125 MPH 120H 01/0600Z 24.5N 62.0W 110 KT 125 MPH $$ Forecaster Reinhart

BULLETIN Hurricane Sam Advisory Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182021 500 AM AST Sun Sep 26 2021 ...SAM REMAINS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE... ...FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY LIKELY DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.8N 49.7W ABOUT 940 MI...1510 KM ESE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...943 MB...27.85 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Sam was located near latitude 13.8 North, longitude 49.7 West. Sam is moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). This general motion is expected to continue today, followed by a turn toward the northwest on Monday. Then, a northwestward motion is forecast to continue through midweek. Maximum sustained winds are near 145 mph (230 km/h) with higher gusts. Sam is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are expected during the next day or so. Thereafter, some slow weakening is forecast. Sam is a small hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 943 mb (27.85 inches).

00z Euro is a recurve out by Bermuda

Tropical Storm Sam Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182021 500 PM AST Thu Sep 23 2021 Sam could be in the beginning stages of developing a small inner-core this afternoon as a central dense overcast is beginning to take shape. On geostationary visible satellite imagery, the storm has occasionally exhibited a clear area, though this feature has been tilted a bit southeast of the estimated low-level center position. In addition, overshooting convective cloud tops have been recirculating cyclonically around this feature, suggesting convective symmetrization that may help shield the low-level vortex from dry-air intrusion as seen earlier on the northwest side of Sam. Unfortunately, I have not received a high resolution microwave pass over Sam in 9-12 hours, so there remains some uncertainty on the structure underneath the cirrus canopy. The latest subjective Dvorak estimates from SAB and TAFB were 55-kt and 45-kt respectively. Taking a blend of these intensity estimates yields 50-kt for this advisory. Sam's estimated motion is nearly identical to this morning, moving north of due west at 280/14 kt. A large and anomalously strong mid-level ridge is located poleward of Sam and should maintain the current west to west-northwest heading over the next 2-3 days. However, this ridge-axis is forecast to build in to the northwest ahead of Sam, which is likely to gradually slow down this forward motion over the next few days. In fact, Sam is forecast to move unusually slow for a tropical cyclone in the deep tropics east of the Lesser Antilles. Afterwards, a weakness in the ridge to the northwest is forecast to gradually develop as a broad deep-layer trough parks itself just offshore of the eastern United States by early next week. This could potentially allow Sam to gain a bit more latitude at a somewhat faster forward motion as the ridge axis shifts back east. The track guidance this cycle has slowed down a bit compared to this morning and is also a bit further south in the early portion of the forecast. The NHC official track will follow suit this advisory, though is not quite as slow as the GFS model. It is interesting to note that both the GFS and ECMWF ensemble guidance this afternoon shows a significant spread in track solutions by day 5 in the cross-track direction, so this track forecast is a bit more uncertain than usual. With the apparent improvement in inner-core structure inferred on satellite today, Sam appears poised to rapidly intensify in the short-term. In fact, the latest GFS-SHIPS guidance is now explicitly forecasting rapid intensification over the next 24-48 hours. This seems feasible given that the guidance is forecasting 5 kt or less vertical wind shear over the next 60 hours as the cyclone traverses over warm 28-29 C sea-surface temperatures. Thus, the intensity guidance in the short-term has been raised once again, now showing a 50-kt increase in intensity over the next 48 hours taking Sam to major hurricane intensity by Saturday afternoon. Remarkably, this rapid intensification is still below the latest HCCA and LGEM guidance over this time span. After this period, Sam is likely to start undergoing inner core fluctuations, related to eyewall replacement cycles that are challenging to forecast far in advance. A modest increase in southwesterly vertical wind shear could also occur in the day 3-5 period. Thus, the NHC intensity forecast still tops off Sam as 110-kt hurricane by the end of the forecast period, which is on the high end of the intensity guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/2100Z 11.1N 39.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 24/0600Z 11.5N 41.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 24/1800Z 11.9N 44.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 25/0600Z 12.3N 46.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 25/1800Z 12.6N 47.4W 100 KT 115 MPH 60H 26/0600Z 13.1N 48.7W 105 KT 120 MPH 72H 26/1800Z 13.7N 50.0W 110 KT 125 MPH 96H 27/1800Z 15.2N 52.5W 110 KT 125 MPH 120H 28/1800Z 17.5N 55.5W 110 KT 125 MPH $$ Forecaster Papin

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sam was located near latitude 11.1 North, longitude 39.7 West. Sam is moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h) and a general west to west-northwest motion is expected to continue over the next several days, with a gradual slowdown in forward motion. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid intensification is forecast during the next several days. Sam is forecast to become a hurricane tomorrow morning and could become a major hurricane by Saturday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).

the cutoff h5 in the SE at 216 retrogrades west at 240 and looks like it opens just enough of an escape route for Sam to recurve. 216 to 240 movement of Sam is NW to N

Begins to recurve at the last possible moment lol