yoda

Special Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 505 AM EDT Thu Aug 26 2021 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Special tropical weather outlook issued to update the discussion of the system south of Jamaica. 1. Updated: Shower and thunderstorm activity continues to become better organized in association with a trough of low pressure located less than 200 miles south of Jamaica. Environmental conditions remain conducive for development, and a tropical depression or storm is expected to form later today or tomorrow. This system is forecast to move northwestward over the northwestern Caribbean Sea near the Cayman Islands tonight, near Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico on Friday, and into the Gulf of Mexico this weekend. Given the recent developmental trends, Tropical Storm Warnings for the Cayman Islands and Tropical Storm Watches for western Cuba could be required later today. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall and flooding will be possible over portions of Jamaica and the Cayman Islands today and tonight, and will likely spread across Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula on Friday. In addition, this system could bring dangerous impacts from storm surge, wind, and heavy rainfall to portions of the coasts of Louisiana, Texas, and the Mexican state of Tamaulipas late this weekend and early next week. However, uncertainty remains large since the system has yet to form. Interests in these areas should closely monitor the progress of this system and ensure they have their hurricane plan in place. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system later today, if necessary. Additional information on this system, including gale warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

LWX AFD from this morning already mentioning it The forecast for the middle of the week next week is a bit more uncertain at this time. The National Hurricane Center is monitoring a tropical disturbance in the Caribbean right now, which may impact the Gulf Coast this weekend. This system will then come in our general direction by mid-week. So, will have to monitor any tropical development in the coming days and see how guidance trends in regards to any potential impacts for our region. For now though, far too many questions in the forecast to say anything for certain. For now, keeping chance POPs in Tue/Wed. Monitor hurricanes.gov for updates on the tropical weather outlook in the coming days.

I'm back and ready to win this year

Could have just borrowed one of @WxWatcher007s... I'm sure he has a few extra left over from the Panic Room lying around

Hopefully this means atmospheric memory this winter.... bah, who are we kidding?

Hodling DOGE and ADA FTW

pouring here again

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Flash Flood Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 755 AM EDT Fri Aug 20 2021 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Flash Flood Warning for... District of Columbia... South Central Montgomery County in central Maryland... Northeastern Arlington County in northern Virginia... * Until noon EDT. * At 755 AM EDT, Doppler radar indicated Showers producing heavy rain across the warned area. Between 1 and 1.5 inches of rain have fallen. Additional rainfall amounts of 0.5 to 1.5 inches are possible in the warned area. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly. HAZARD...Life threatening flash flooding. Showers producing flash flooding. SOURCE...Radar. IMPACT...Life threatening flash flooding of creeks and streams, urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses. * Some locations that will experience flash flooding include... Arlington... Bethesda... Howard University... Rosslyn... Fort Totten... Gallaudet University... Takoma Park... Chevy Chase... Martin`s Additions... Adams Morgan... Georgetown... American University... Friendship Village... US Capitol... Ballston... Silver Spring... Chillum... Mount Rainier... Chevy Chase Village... Somerset...

BULLETIN Tropical Storm Henri Intermediate Advisory Number 18A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021 800 AM EDT Fri Aug 20 2021 ...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING HENRI... ...STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES... SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.0N 73.7W ABOUT 375 MI...600 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA ABOUT 800 MI...1290 KM SSW OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES

@H2O wins Flash Flood Warning VAC059-201545- /O.NEW.KLWX.FF.W.0049.210820T1152Z-210820T1545Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Flash Flood Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 752 AM EDT Fri Aug 20 2021 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Flash Flood Warning for... North Central Fairfax County in northern Virginia... * Until 1145 AM EDT. * At 752 AM EDT, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain across the warned area. Between 1 and 3 inches of rain have fallen. The expected rainfall rate is 1 to 2 inches in 1 hour. Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches are possible in the warned area. Flash flooding is already occurring. HAZARD...Life threatening flash flooding. Heavy rain producing flash flooding. SOURCE...Radar. IMPACT...Life threatening flash flooding of creeks and streams, urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses. * Some locations that will experience flash flooding include... Annandale... Fairfax... Vienna... Mantua... Pimmit Hills... Oakton... Tysons Corner... Wolf Trap... Merrifield... I66 and I495 Interchange... Dunn Loring... Belleview... This includes the following Flood Prone Roads: Woodburn Road at Accotink Creek... PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Turn around, don`t drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles. && LAT...LON 3888 7732 3890 7733 3890 7732 3892 7732 3897 7726 3896 7723 3896 7721 3894 7720 3891 7719 3889 7720 3887 7720 3884 7721 3884 7727 3887 7726 3887 7729 3887 7730 3888 7731 FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED FLASH FLOOD DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE EXPECTED RAINFALL...1-2 INCHES IN 1 HOUR

Woodburn Road is probably flooded already too Flood Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 718 AM EDT Fri Aug 20 2021 VAC059-600-201715- /O.NEW.KLWX.FA.W.0088.210820T1118Z-210820T1715Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Fairfax VA-City of Fairfax VA- 718 AM EDT Fri Aug 20 2021 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Flood Warning for... Central Fairfax County in northern Virginia... The City of Fairfax in northern Virginia... * Until 115 PM EDT. * At 718 AM EDT, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain. Flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly in the warned area. Between 1 and 2 inches of rain have fallen. * Some locations that will experience flooding include... Centreville... Reston... Annandale... Herndon... Fairfax... Vienna... Falls Church... Mantua... Pimmit Hills... Mclean... Potomac... Burke... Oakton... Chantilly... Tysons Corner... Wolf Trap... Great Falls... Merrifield... Lake Barcroft... I66 and I495 Interchange... This includes the following Flood Prone Roads: Woodburn Road at Accotink Creek... Beulah Road at Browns Mill Road at Wolftrap Creek... Fairfax Boulevard at Oak Street... Fairfax Boulevard at University Drive... Pickett Rd at Accotink Creek near Old Pickett Rd... Additional rainfall amounts of 0.5 to 1 inch are possible in the warned area.

You have a Flood Warning instead

yay Flood Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 735 AM EDT Fri Aug 20 2021 DCC001-MDC031-033-VAC013-059-510-610-201745- /O.NEW.KLWX.FA.W.0089.210820T1135Z-210820T1745Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ District of Columbia DC-Montgomery MD-Prince Georges MD-Arlington VA- Fairfax VA-City of Alexandria VA-City of Falls Church VA- 735 AM EDT Fri Aug 20 2021 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Flood Warning for... District of Columbia... Southeastern Montgomery County in central Maryland... Northwestern Prince Georges County in central Maryland... Arlington County in northern Virginia... Southeastern Fairfax County in northern Virginia... The City of Alexandria in northern Virginia... The City of Falls Church in northern Virginia... * Until 145 PM EDT Friday. * At 735 AM EDT, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain. Flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly in the warned area. Between 1 and 2 inches of rain have fallen. * Some locations that will experience flooding include... Arlington... Alexandria... Bethesda... Annandale... Springfield... College Park... Fort Washington... Greenbelt... Langley Park... Beltsville... Fort Hunt... Groveton... Falls Church... Huntington... Coral Hills... Bladensburg... Mantua... Fort Belvoir... Pimmit Hills... National Harbor... This includes the following Flood Prone Roads: Military Road at 36th Road at Gulf Branch... 18th Street at Upton Street... 17th Street North at North Buchanan St... South Troy Street near Long Branch... West Street near Braddock Road... Holmes Run Below Lake Barcroft... Rhode Island Ave NE between 2nd and Capitol... Beach Dr from Broad Branch Rd to Piney Branch Pkwy... Woodburn Road at Accotink Creek... Connecticut Avenue just north of the Beltway... University Boulevard at Sligo Creek... Beach Drive along Rock Creek... Sligo Creek Parkway... Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches are possible in the warned area.

how was your rain?

Just SE of RI at 18z SUN... 983mb

Weaker at hr 48... but slightly west of 00z

BOX already issued HLS https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/WTUS81-KBOX.shtml

WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Storm Surge Watch has been issued for the south shore of Long Island from East Rockaway Inlet eastward to Montauk, the north shore of Long Island from Kings Point eastward to Montauk, and from Kings Point eastward to Sagamore Beach, Massachusetts, including Nantucket, Martha's Vineyard, and Block Island. A Hurricane Watch has been issued for Long Island from Fire Island Inlet eastward and from Port Jefferson Harbor eastward. A Hurricane Watch has also been issued from New Haven, Connecticut, eastward to Sagamore Beach, Massachusetts, including Nantucket, Martha's Vineyard, and Block Island. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued west of Fire Island Inlet to East Rockaway Inlet, west of Port Jefferson Harbor, and west of New Haven. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * South Shore of Long Island from East Rockaway Inlet to Montauk * North Shore of Long Island from Kings Point to Montauk * Kings Point New York to Sagamore Beach Massachusetts * Nantucket, Martha's Vineyard, and Block Island A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * South Shore of Long Island from Fire Island Inlet to Montauk * North Shore of Long Island from Port Jefferson Harbor to Montauk * New Haven Connecticut to Sagamore Beach Massachusetts * Nantucket, Martha's Vineyard, and Block Island A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * West of Fire Island Inlet to East Rockaway Inlet New York * West of Port Jefferson Harbor New York * West of New Haven Connecticut

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Flash Flood Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 452 AM EDT Fri Aug 20 2021 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Flash Flood Warning for... Northwestern Frederick County in north central Maryland... * Until 800 AM EDT. * At 452 AM EDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing heavy rain across the warned area. Between 1 and 3 inches of rain have fallen. The expected rainfall rate is 1 to 2 inches in 1 hour. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly. HAZARD...Life threatening flash flooding. Thunderstorms producing flash flooding. SOURCE...Radar. IMPACT...Life threatening flash flooding of creeks and streams, urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses. * Some locations that will experience flash flooding include... Frederick... Thurmont... Walkersville... Braddock Heights... Clover Hill... Wolfsville... Myersville... Woodsboro... Lewistown... Bloomfield... Utica... Middletown In Frederick Md... Pleasant Walk... Bolivar... This includes the following Flood Prone Roads: Lenhart Road near Fishing Creek... Wilhide Road near Hunting Creek... Blacks Mill Road at Hessong Bridge Road... Retreat Road near Glade Creek... Stottlemeyer Road near Middle Creek... Brethren Church Road near Catoctin Creek... Shank Road near Catoctin Creek... Station Road near Catoctin Creek...

Tropical Storm Henri Discussion Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021 500 AM EDT Fri Aug 20 2021 Henri's low-level center has been peaking out from under the north side of the deep convective mass, resulting from continued 20-25 kt of northerly shear. Maximum winds are still estimated to be 55 kt based on T3.5 Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB. Henri still has a motion toward the west-northwest, or 300/8 kt, but it is about ready to make the sharp right turn that we've been expecting. A shortwave trough currently over the central Appalachians is forecast to close off by Saturday, with Henri accelerating northward on the east side of this feature through the weekend. Some global models show Henri merging with the mid-/upper-level low as the cyclone approaches southern New England, which induces a slight bend of Henri's forecast track to the left. Nearly all track models now show Henri's center reaching the coast of southern New England, and the new NHC track forecast has been nudged westward in the direction of HCCA and the other consensus aids. After day 3, Henri is forecast to eject northeastward across the Gulf of Maine toward Atlantic Canada. The strong shear affecting Henri is forecast to begin weakening later today, and SHIPS diagnostics indicate that it could drop to less than 10 kt in about 36 hours. In addition, Henri will be traversing very warm waters for the next 48 hours before it crosses the north wall of the Gulf Stream. Therefore, strengthening is anticipated for the next 2 days, with Henri likely to become a hurricane by Saturday. After 48 hours, Henri's expected slower motion over the colder water south of New England should induce quick weakening, but it may not be quick enough to keep Henri from reaching the coast as a hurricane. Faster weakening is anticipated after Henri's center moves over land, and simulated satellite imagery from the GFS and ECMWF models suggest that deep convection could dissipate by day 4, making Henri a post-tropical low at that time. Global models suggest that Henri may dissipate by day 5, but for the time being a day 5 point is being kept for continuity. Based on the new forecast, tropical-storm-force wind radii will be approaching the coast of southern New England in about 48 hours. Given the still-present uncertainties in Henri's future track and intensity and the hazards that the storm may cause, storm surge and hurricane watches are now being issued for portions of Long Island, Connecticut, Rhode Island, and southeastern Massachusetts. Users are reminded to not focus on the exact forecast points as impacts will extend far from the center. Key Messages: 1. Henri is forecast to be near the northeast coast of the U.S. on Sunday and Monday, and the risks of storm surge, wind, and rain impacts in portions of southern New England and eastern Long Island are increasing. Hurricane and storm surge watches are now in effect for portions of Long Island, Connecticut, Rhode Island, and southeastern Massachusetts. Additional watches or warnings may be required later today. 2. Swells from Henri will begin to reach much of the east coast of the U.S. and Atlantic Canada by the end of the week and continue through the weekend. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. 3. Heavy rainfall may lead to flash, urban, and small stream flooding over portions of southern New England Sunday into Monday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/0900Z 30.2N 73.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 20/1800Z 31.0N 73.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 21/0600Z 33.0N 72.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 21/1800Z 36.1N 71.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 22/0600Z 39.1N 71.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 60H 22/1800Z 41.1N 71.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 23/0600Z 42.2N 71.6W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 96H 24/0600Z 43.5N 70.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 25/0600Z 45.3N 63.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP