yoda

I am willing to bet that there will be some really good GEFS members on the 12z run for everyone

It kinda feels like the GFS took pity on us and was like "my bad guys, let me come back and give you some action"

Thanks for the link... I will have to watch that this weekend

quoting for posterity

My met professor at Mason swore there was a coverup and that the meteorologists had told them not to launch because of how cold it was but NASA officials went ahead and launched anyway. He would state conspiracy theories (I haven't really looked into them or if they are even true or false) about the launch. I do remember him claiming that he had a friend who worked down there and was involved in the launch disco on that day was told to sign something saying he couldn't discuss what really happened because NASA didn't want that info to leak out. Now before we get carried away, he was actually a good professor, he taught the class well and I learned a lot in his class. Just that subject drew his ire and the such. It was a bit weird, was never really sure what to believe

As in looks like the 12z run yesterday?

it was a gif/meme

Uh no, the GFS is the worst scoring model MIllvilleWx also posted above that the WPC was discounting the GFS/GEFS and going with a CMC/UKIE/EURO blend this morning

Wow... that's bold of LWX to put that wording in the ZFP's already Zone Forecast Product National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 338 AM EST Thu Jan 28 2021 DCZ001-VAZ054-281200- District of Columbia-Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria- Including the cities of Washington, Arlington, Alexandria, and Falls Church 339 AM EST Thu Jan 28 2021 .REST OF THE OVERNIGHT...Cloudy with a 20 percent chance of snow. Lows in the upper 20s. North winds around 10 mph with gusts up to 25 mph. .TODAY...Mostly cloudy in the morning, then clearing. Highs in the mid 30s. Northwest winds 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 40 mph. .TONIGHT...Mostly clear in the evening, then becoming partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 20s. Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 30 mph. .FRIDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the mid 30s. Northwest winds 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 40 mph. .FRIDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy in the evening, then becoming mostly clear. Lows around 20. Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph. Gusts up to 25 mph in the evening. .SATURDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the upper 30s. .SATURDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of snow. Lows in the mid 20s. .SUNDAY...Rain and snow. Highs in the mid 30s. Chance of precipitation 80 percent. .SUNDAY NIGHT...Snow and rain. Lows in the lower 30s. Chance of precipitation 80 percent. .MONDAY...Snow likely. Snow may be heavy at times. Highs in the mid 30s. Chance of snow 70 percent. .MONDAY NIGHT...Snow likely. Lows in the upper 20s. Chance of snow 60 percent.

Or we just take the EPS...

FWIW, on the 06z NAM, snowing at DCA at 75 hours (09z SUN) h5 map at 84... yes at end of the run and range stuff

If it passes that far south and moves eastward... we all do well... @MillvilleWx mentioned on the last page where our "Goldilocks" zone was for h7 pass

6 to 8 as a mean is still pretty nice along the i95 corridor

My bar is 4". That simple. We get 6" while NYC gets 20"? Well that sucks, but I just want WSW criteria snow. Any more is gravy and sauce

I believe his mention of where the h7 low passes is causing that. If we can get that to move south a tad, the higher totals will come back south... is that right @MillvilleWx? Or do i have that wrong?

Thanks for your great and reasonable posts. I am gathering we want the h7 low to be like 50-75 miles S of us for perfection?

6-12 is a nailbiter? Okay then

Looks like a decent h5 pass at 126 to me FWIW

h5 low going by at 120

Brings a 998mb SLP over the Delmarva

96 -- 1005mb SLP E IN CAD strongly evident... looks like transfer is starting or ongoing per isobars bending

Everything looks shifted a tad ESE at h5 comparing 00z 72 to 12z 84 IMO