yoda

12z UKIE will be in range on PW in a min... at 102

Correct... see below

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 348 PM EST Thu Feb 13 2025 DCZ001-MDZ003>006-008-011-013-014-503>508-VAZ028-031-053-054-505-506- WVZ052-053-140300- /O.EXB.KLWX.WI.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-250214T0300Z/ District of Columbia-Washington-Frederick MD-Carroll-Northern Baltimore-Cecil-Southern Baltimore-Prince Georges-Anne Arundel- Northwest Montgomery-Central and Southeast Montgomery-Northwest Howard-Central and Southeast Howard-Northwest Harford-Southeast Harford-Frederick VA-Clarke-Fairfax-Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria-Western Loudoun-Eastern Loudoun-Berkeley- Jefferson- 348 PM EST Thu Feb 13 2025 ...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING... * WHAT...Northwest winds 20 to 25 mph with gusts up to 50 mph. * WHERE...DC, central, north central, northeast, and northern Maryland, northern and northwest Virginia, and panhandle West Virginia. * WHEN...Until 10 PM EST this evening. * IMPACTS...Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result.

Uh 6" an hour?

From trained spotter in Lake Ridge

CPC has a lot of risks up in the Feb 19 to 25 range https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats/threats.php

It's decreasing every run

Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 341 PM EST Tue Feb 11 2025 DCZ001-MDZ013-014-016-503>506-VAZ053>056-501-502-505-506-526-527- 120030- District of Columbia-Prince Georges-Anne Arundel-Charles- Northwest Montgomery-Central and Southeast Montgomery- Northwest Howard-Central and Southeast Howard-Fairfax- Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria-Stafford-Spotsylvania- Northern Fauquier-Southern Fauquier-Western Loudoun- Eastern Loudoun-Northwest Prince William- Central and Southeast Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park- Including the cities of Washington, Bowie, Suitland-Silver Hill, Clinton, College Park, Greenbelt, Laurel, Camp Springs, Glen Burnie, Annapolis, Severn, South Gate, Severna Park, Arnold, Odenton, St. Charles, Waldorf, Germantown, Damascus, Bethesda, Rockville, Gaithersburg, Silver Spring, Lisbon, Columbia, Ellicott City, Reston, Herndon, Annandale, Centreville, Chantilly, McLean, Franconia, Arlington, Alexandria, Falls Church, Falmouth, Fredericksburg, Warrenton, Turnbull, Purcellville, Leesburg, Ashburn, Sterling, Haymarket, Dale City, Manassas, Woodbridge, Lake Ridge, and Montclair 341 PM EST Tue Feb 11 2025 ...RAPIDLY DETERIORATING CONDITIONS FOR THE EVENING COMMUTE... Moderate to heavy snow will overspread the area by 5 PM and continue through this evening. Snowfall rates around 1 to 2 inches per hour are expected. The heavy snow will combine with falling temperatures and rapidly stick on all surfaces during the evening commute. If you are travelling, drive slowly and leave plenty of distance between you and the vehicle in front of you. Be prepared for snow covered roads.

DCA was 33 at 3pm FWIW

Mesoscale Discussion 0082 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 PM CST Tue Feb 11 2025 Areas affected...parts of the Mid-Atlantic Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 111949Z - 112345Z SUMMARY...A band of heavy snow developing across the Mid-Atlantic region will be capable of moderate to heavy snowfall rates upwards of 1-2 inches per hour. Similar bands and snowfall rates will be possible through early evening. DISCUSSION...Regional radar imagery shows an organized precipitation/snow band developing from west-central VA into the Chesapeake Bay area. Recent snowfall reports from central VA and surface observations reporting visibility reductions between 0.25 to 0.5 mile suggest moderate to heavy snowfall rates are ongoing. This band is largely being driven by a combination of strong warm-air advection and frontogenesis within the 925-700 mb layer and may persist for another hour or two given the strength of forcing for ascent. Additional banding is possible heading into the late afternoon hours as a weak mid-level impulse - and the primary precipitation shield - migrates into the region and to the north/northeast into northern MD and DE. Recent guidance suggests heavy snow potential will likely peak across the Chesapeake Bay area during the 21-00 UTC period. Although surface temperatures across this region remain near/above freezing, dewpoints in the 20s suggest that temperatures will likely fall to below freezing due to low-level evaporative cooling associated with the onset of precipitation, which should support heavier snowfall rates later this afternoon. ..Moore.. 02/11/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...

Light lava is currently falling

Hmmm Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 211 PM EST Tue Feb 11 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure tracking to our south will continue to bring snow to the region through tonight. Expect a lull in precipitation on Wednesday morning as a mid-level dry slot moves overhead. Another low pressure system brings additional wintry precipitation Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday night, mainly in the higher elevations. A cold front crosses the area Thursday afternoon, bringing blustery conditions. High pressure builds overhead Friday before yet another low pressure brings precipitation chances to the area for the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Current radar trends remain largely in line with the current forecast. Snow will continue to drift north and gradually overspread the region through this afternoon. For now, many areas are still battling dry air, especially north of the I-64 corridor. So, at least for the next hour or two, still going to have pretty light rates with small flakes and very little in terms of accumulation. Over central VA, along and just north of the I-64 corridor, some heavy snow is ongoing, with report of 6 or more inches up on the Blue Ridge. So, it seems that the heavier band is setting up about where it was expected to. Today`s guidance has shown a bit of an upward trend further north as well, owing to a secondary area of FGEN forcing that is pretty consistently showing up amongst the guidance. Still not quite clear where the heavier band of precipitation associated with this feature will set up, but seems likely that western MD will now get a few additional inches in response to this. So, have added them into the warning for the current storm. Elsewhere, generally between I-66 and I-70, there could be some isolated higher amounts if this band does develop. For now, amounts have been ever so slightly increased, but no northward expansion of Winter Storm Warnings are needed at this time. Generally speaking, expect a swath of 3-6 inches south of I-70 and 6 to 9 inches south of I-66, with localized amounts up to a foot up along the Blue Ridge. Additionally, could see some localized higher amounts towards Highland county on the ridges there. The bulk of precipitation will exit the region early Wednesday morning, but turn into a light drizzle/flurry situation into the day on Wednesday (see short term below).

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 115 PM EST Tue Feb 11 2025 DCZ001-MDZ013-014-016>018-VAZ053>055-057-526-527-120215- /O.CON.KLWX.WS.W.0006.000000T0000Z-250212T1200Z/ District of Columbia-Prince Georges-Anne Arundel-Charles-St. Marys-Calvert-Fairfax-Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria-Stafford- King George-Northwest Prince William-Central and Southeast Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park- 115 PM EST Tue Feb 11 2025 ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY... * WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations between 4 and 7 inches. * WHERE...The District of Columbia, central and southern Maryland, and central and northern Virginia. * WHEN...Until 7 AM EST Wednesday. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions could impact today`s evening commute, as well as the morning commute on Wednesday. Roads may become impassable due to the combination of heavy, wet snow through tonight, followed by significant icing Wednesday afternoon and evening. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The steadiest snow is expected late this afternoon and evening. Snowfall rates around 1 to 2 inches per hour and visibility below one half mile are possible during this time. A light wintry mix may continue into Wednesday

Loudoun 3 hr early closing Prince William 2 hour early closing

Stafford/Spotsylvania/Fauquier all closed tomorrow King George closed Warren is Virtual Learning only Prince George in MD 2 hour early dismissal Frederick County in MD 3.5 hr early dismissal

Schools are beginning to close outright for tomorrow

Will someone PLEASE... get this man a warning (taken from John Wick Chapter 2)

Dryslot comes charging through/precipitation ends just after 66

PW

Moves into MD at 63... DCA changes to rain

Heavy snow DC metro at 60 on 12z gfs

6" just south of DC metro on 10:1 maps by 03z