yoda

Tropical Storm Sam Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182021 500 PM AST Thu Sep 23 2021 Sam could be in the beginning stages of developing a small inner-core this afternoon as a central dense overcast is beginning to take shape. On geostationary visible satellite imagery, the storm has occasionally exhibited a clear area, though this feature has been tilted a bit southeast of the estimated low-level center position. In addition, overshooting convective cloud tops have been recirculating cyclonically around this feature, suggesting convective symmetrization that may help shield the low-level vortex from dry-air intrusion as seen earlier on the northwest side of Sam. Unfortunately, I have not received a high resolution microwave pass over Sam in 9-12 hours, so there remains some uncertainty on the structure underneath the cirrus canopy. The latest subjective Dvorak estimates from SAB and TAFB were 55-kt and 45-kt respectively. Taking a blend of these intensity estimates yields 50-kt for this advisory. Sam's estimated motion is nearly identical to this morning, moving north of due west at 280/14 kt. A large and anomalously strong mid-level ridge is located poleward of Sam and should maintain the current west to west-northwest heading over the next 2-3 days. However, this ridge-axis is forecast to build in to the northwest ahead of Sam, which is likely to gradually slow down this forward motion over the next few days. In fact, Sam is forecast to move unusually slow for a tropical cyclone in the deep tropics east of the Lesser Antilles. Afterwards, a weakness in the ridge to the northwest is forecast to gradually develop as a broad deep-layer trough parks itself just offshore of the eastern United States by early next week. This could potentially allow Sam to gain a bit more latitude at a somewhat faster forward motion as the ridge axis shifts back east. The track guidance this cycle has slowed down a bit compared to this morning and is also a bit further south in the early portion of the forecast. The NHC official track will follow suit this advisory, though is not quite as slow as the GFS model. It is interesting to note that both the GFS and ECMWF ensemble guidance this afternoon shows a significant spread in track solutions by day 5 in the cross-track direction, so this track forecast is a bit more uncertain than usual. With the apparent improvement in inner-core structure inferred on satellite today, Sam appears poised to rapidly intensify in the short-term. In fact, the latest GFS-SHIPS guidance is now explicitly forecasting rapid intensification over the next 24-48 hours. This seems feasible given that the guidance is forecasting 5 kt or less vertical wind shear over the next 60 hours as the cyclone traverses over warm 28-29 C sea-surface temperatures. Thus, the intensity guidance in the short-term has been raised once again, now showing a 50-kt increase in intensity over the next 48 hours taking Sam to major hurricane intensity by Saturday afternoon. Remarkably, this rapid intensification is still below the latest HCCA and LGEM guidance over this time span. After this period, Sam is likely to start undergoing inner core fluctuations, related to eyewall replacement cycles that are challenging to forecast far in advance. A modest increase in southwesterly vertical wind shear could also occur in the day 3-5 period. Thus, the NHC intensity forecast still tops off Sam as 110-kt hurricane by the end of the forecast period, which is on the high end of the intensity guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/2100Z 11.1N 39.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 24/0600Z 11.5N 41.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 24/1800Z 11.9N 44.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 25/0600Z 12.3N 46.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 25/1800Z 12.6N 47.4W 100 KT 115 MPH 60H 26/0600Z 13.1N 48.7W 105 KT 120 MPH 72H 26/1800Z 13.7N 50.0W 110 KT 125 MPH 96H 27/1800Z 15.2N 52.5W 110 KT 125 MPH 120H 28/1800Z 17.5N 55.5W 110 KT 125 MPH $$ Forecaster Papin

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sam was located near latitude 11.1 North, longitude 39.7 West. Sam is moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h) and a general west to west-northwest motion is expected to continue over the next several days, with a gradual slowdown in forward motion. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid intensification is forecast during the next several days. Sam is forecast to become a hurricane tomorrow morning and could become a major hurricane by Saturday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).

the cutoff h5 in the SE at 216 retrogrades west at 240 and looks like it opens just enough of an escape route for Sam to recurve. 216 to 240 movement of Sam is NW to N

Begins to recurve at the last possible moment lol

Tropical Storm Sam Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182021 1100 AM AST Thu Sep 23 2021 Overnight and this morning, the satellite structure of the tropical cyclone has been improving, with prominent curved bands, and obvious low-level cloud motions that indicate the circulation is becoming established within the convection. In particular, an SSMIS microwave pass at 0653 UTC indicated a substantial improvement in the convective structure, with a well-defined curved band wrapping three-quarters of the way around the center in both the 91- and 37-GHz channels. ASCAT-B wind retrievals at 1234 UTC also indicated a tight, well-defined circulation had formed, with peak winds of 44-kt on the north side of the vortex. Subjective Dvorak satellite intensity estimates are now T3.5/55-kt from SAB and T2.5/35-kt from TAFB. In addition, the latest objective intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS ADT and SATCON were at 35-kt and 43-kt respectively. Given the recent scatterometer data, the intensity has been set to 45-kt for this advisory. Thus, Tropical Depression 18 has been upgraded to Tropical Storm Sam. It is noteworthy that this is the 2nd earliest formation of the 18th named storm in the Atlantic basin, moving ahead of the 2005 hurricane season, and only trailing last year. Sam continues to move to the west-northwest with an estimated motion at 280/14 kt. A prominent mid-level ridge remains entrenched to the north of the cyclone, and this feature should continue to steer Sam to the west-northwest over the next 2-3 days. Over this period, the ridge orientation actually shifts more westward ahead of the cyclone as a deep-layer trough digs in well northeast of Sam. This gradual change in the synoptic pattern should also result in a slowdown in Sam's forward motion over the next 72 hours. While the track guidance remains in good agreement over this period, larger spread begins to take shape beyond the day 3 forecast. Similar to yesterday, the ECMWF model and its ensemble mean flanks the southwest side of the guidance envelop, while the GFS is on the northeast side by day 5. These differences appear to be partially related to the mid-level ridge intensity on the western end, which could begin to be eroded by a mid-latitude trough off the eastern United States in 120-h. In addition, differences in both the size and intensity of Sam may also play a role in its ultimate track evolution. For this advisory, the latest NHC track forecast remains close to the consensus aids TCVN and TCVE, which represents a slight shift westward and a bit faster motion compared to the previous forecast. Because Sam is forecast to slow down, it remains too early to determine what impacts, direct or indirect, could be felt by the Lesser Antilles by this cyclone. The previously mentioned SSMIS microwave imagery also indicated that the low-level center has become better aligned with the mid-level vortex, perhaps a bit earlier than anticipated given the scatterometer data from last night. This improvement in structure, combined with favorable low vertical wind shear under 10 kt and warm 28-29 C sea-surface temperatures, argues for significant intensification. In fact, the GFS-SHIPS rapid intensification index now give Sam a 39 percent chance of a 65-kt increase over the next 72 hours, which is more than 7 times the climatological value. Thus, the NHC intensity forecast has been raised quite a bit from the prior one, especially in the short-term. The latest forecast now makes Sam a hurricane in 36 hours, and a major hurricane in 72 hours. This intensity forecast is just a shade under the latest HCCA consensus aid. Thereafter, a more gradual intensification rate is forecast. By this period it is possible that Sam could undergo hard to predict inner-core changes such as eyewall replacement cycles. In addition, the ECMWF-SHIPS suggests that the shear may also increase a little in days 4-5 which also argues for a bit slower rate of intensification for this period. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/1500Z 10.9N 38.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 24/0000Z 11.3N 40.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 24/1200Z 11.9N 42.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 25/0000Z 12.3N 45.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 25/1200Z 12.7N 46.7W 80 KT 90 MPH 60H 26/0000Z 13.2N 48.2W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 26/1200Z 13.7N 49.4W 100 KT 115 MPH 96H 27/1200Z 15.3N 52.1W 105 KT 120 MPH 120H 28/1200Z 17.4N 55.2W 110 KT 125 MPH $$ Forecaster Papin

BULLETIN Tropical Storm Sam Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182021 1100 AM AST Thu Sep 23 2021 ...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM SAM, THE 18TH NAMED STORM OF THE SEASON... ...NOW FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE TOMORROW... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...10.9N 38.1W ABOUT 1745 MI...2805 KM ESE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sam was located near latitude 10.9 North, longitude 38.1 West. Sam is moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue over the next several days, but with a gradual slowdown in forward motion. Recent sallite wind data indicates maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast over the next several days, and Sam is now forecast to become a hurricane tomorrow and be near major hurricane intensity by the end of the weekend. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).

So....

Almost there... 60 at MRB... 48 at Oakland...

Day 10 00z Euro would definitely suggest a EC LF if it were to be correct

00z Euro would definitely suggest a hit nearby if it's Day 10 position were to be correct of soon to be Sam

Hmmm Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0734 PM CDT Wed Sep 22 2021 Valid 230100Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...MID-ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with a marginal tornado and wind-damage threat will be possible this evening into tonight from the central Appalachians into the Mid-Atlantic. A few strong wind gusts may also occur in the Carolinas this evening. ...Central Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic... The latest water vapor imagery shows a high-amplitude upper-level trough located over the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley with south-southwesterly mid-level flow over much of the Northeast. At the surface, a 1003 mb low is located in far northwestern Pennsylvania. A pre-frontal trough extends southeastward from the surface low into west-central Pennsylvania and then southward into central Virginia. Thunderstorms are ongoing along and near the pre-frontal trough. Ahead of the storms, surface dewpoints are in the 65 to 70 F range and weak instability is present. The strongest instability is located from southeast Pennsylvania southward into far eastern Virginia where the RAP is estimating MLCAPE to be in the 500 to 750 J/kg range. In addition, the WSR-88D VWP near Washington D.C. has strong speed shear and veering winds with height in the lowest 1 km. This is resulting in 0-1 km shear in the 35 to 40 kt range suggesting that a marginal tornado threat could develop as the thunderstorms along the pre-frontal trough move eastward. The marginal tornado threat could affect much of Pennsylvania, Maryland and central Virginia along and near the axis of a 40 to 55 knot low-level jet. Any storm that rotates may also produce strong wind gusts.

Looks like the 00z Euro at Day 10 would suggest that Sam would feel some tug northwest with the trough moving through in NE US... but not enough for a recurve imo.

Last chance saloon tomorrow night into Thursday?

00z Euro at 240 looked interesting

Flood Watch National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1006 AM EDT Tue Sep 21 2021 VAZ025>027-029-036>038-503-504-507-508-WVZ055-501-502-505-506-212215- /O.EXT.KLWX.FF.A.0018.210922T0300Z-210923T1200Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Augusta-Rockingham-Shenandoah-Page-Nelson-Albemarle-Greene-Western Highland-Eastern Highland-Northern Virginia Blue Ridge-Central Virginia Blue Ridge-Hardy-Western Grant-Eastern Grant-Western Pendleton-Eastern Pendleton- Including the cities of Mount Storm, Sugar Grove, Woodstock, Petersburg, Charlottesville, Luray, Moorefield, Harrisonburg, Staunton, New Market, Shenandoah, Hightown, Bayard, Waynesboro, Mount Jackson, Stuarts Draft, Riverton, Big Meadows, Franklin, Oak Flat, Monterey, Wintergreen, Stanardsville, Ruddle, Brandywine, Strasburg, Stanley, and Lovingston 1006 AM EDT Tue Sep 21 2021 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING... The Flash Flood Watch is now in effect for * Portions of Virginia and eastern West Virginia, including the following areas: in Virginia, Albemarle, Augusta, Central Virginia Blue Ridge, Eastern Highland, Greene, Nelson, Northern Virginia Blue Ridge, Page, Rockingham, Shenandoah and Western Highland. In eastern West Virginia, Eastern Grant, Eastern Pendleton, Hardy, Western Grant and Western Pendleton. * From this evening through Thursday morning. * Showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected late tonight into Thursday morning across the watch area. Given the local enhancement of the higher terrain and a very moist air mass, widespread rainfall amounts of three to five inches are expected by Thursday morning. However, localized amounts could exceed that, especially along the ridges. Flash flooding is possible.

Flood Watch National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1006 AM EDT Tue Sep 21 2021 MDZ001-003-004-501-502-VAZ028-030-031-039-040-501-505-WVZ050>053-503- 504-212215- /O.EXB.KLWX.FF.A.0018.210922T1200Z-210923T1200Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Garrett-Washington-Frederick MD-Extreme Western Allegany-Central and Eastern Allegany-Frederick VA-Warren-Clarke-Madison-Rappahannock- Northern Fauquier-Western Loudoun-Hampshire-Morgan-Berkeley- Jefferson-Western Mineral-Eastern Mineral- Including the cities of Shepherdstown, Purcellville, Charles Town, Cumberland, Winchester, Romney, Martinsburg, Keyser, Ballenger Creek, Berryville, Antioch, Front Royal, Russelldale, Grantsville, Frederick, Hagerstown, Mountain Lake Park, Frostburg, Fort Ashby, Elk Garden, New Creek, Madison, Paw Paw, Washington, Headsville, Warrenton, Oakland, and Ridgeville 1006 AM EDT Tue Sep 21 2021 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING... The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has expanded the * Flash Flood Watch to include portions of Maryland, Virginia and West Virginia, including the following areas: in Maryland, Central and Eastern Allegany, Extreme Western Allegany, Frederick MD, Garrett and Washington. In Virginia, Clarke, Frederick VA, Madison, Northern Fauquier, Rappahannock, Warren and Western Loudoun. In West Virginia, Berkeley, Eastern Mineral, Hampshire, Jefferson, Morgan and Western Mineral. * From Wednesday morning through Thursday morning. * Showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected Wednesday into Thursday morning across the watch area. Given the local enhancement of the higher terrain and a very moist air mass, widespread rainfall amounts of two to four inches are expected by Thursday morning. However, localized amounts could exceed that, especially along the ridges. Flash flooding is possible.

National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 304 AM EDT Tue Sep 21 2021 VAZ025>027-029-036>038-503-504-507-508-WVZ055-501-502-505-506-211515- /O.NEW.KLWX.FF.A.0018.210922T0300Z-210922T1200Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Augusta-Rockingham-Shenandoah-Page-Nelson-Albemarle-Greene-Western Highland-Eastern Highland-Northern Virginia Blue Ridge-Central Virginia Blue Ridge-Hardy-Western Grant-Eastern Grant-Western Pendleton-Eastern Pendleton- Including the cities of Mount Storm, Sugar Grove, Woodstock, Petersburg, Charlottesville, Luray, Moorefield, Harrisonburg, Staunton, New Market, Shenandoah, Hightown, Bayard, Waynesboro, Mount Jackson, Stuarts Draft, Riverton, Big Meadows, Franklin, Oak Flat, Monterey, Wintergreen, Stanardsville, Ruddle, Brandywine, Strasburg, Stanley, and Lovingston 304 AM EDT Tue Sep 21 2021 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING... The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Flash Flood Watch for portions of Virginia and eastern West Virginia, including the following areas: in Virginia, Albemarle, Augusta, Central Virginia Blue Ridge, Eastern Highland, Greene, Nelson, Northern Virginia Blue Ridge, Page, Rockingham, Shenandoah and Western Highland. In eastern West Virginia, Eastern Grant, Eastern Pendleton, Hardy, Western Grant and Western Pendleton. * From this evening through Wednesday morning. * Showers and thunderstorms are expected late Tuesday night into Wednesday across the watch area. Given the local enhancement of the higher terrain and a very moist air mass, expecting an inch or two of rain with locally higher amounts possible. This could lead to instances of flash flooding.

Into NF most likely

Tropical Storm Odette Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152021 500 PM EDT Fri Sep 17 2021 The circulation associated with the area of low pressure off the U.S. Mid-Atlantic coast has become better defined today, with a new center having developed near a persistent cluster of deep convection. This system has some non-tropical characteristics, with a developing frontal boundary draped around the northern and western side of the circulation. Although the convection is being sheared off to the northeast of the center, the structure still resembles that of a tropical cyclone. An ASCAT-C pass from a few hours ago showed that maximum winds were 30-35 kt to the north of the center, thus advisories are being initiated on Tropical Storm Odette with 35-kt winds. With the re-formation of the center, the initial motion is uncertain but is estimated to be northeastward, or 045/13 kt. Odette is embedded between the subtropical ridge over the western Atlantic and a deep-layer trough over the U.S. Upper Midwest and central Canada. The approach of this trough should cause Odette to accelerate toward the northeast and then east-northeast during the next few days. After about day 3, there is significant divergence among the models. The GFS ejects the system northeastward and stalls it over the north Atlantic, south of Greenland. The ECMWF, UKMET, and Canadian models, however, stall the cyclone sooner and have it meandering south of Newfoundland on days 4 and 5. For now, the NHC track forecast shows Odette slowing down significantly on those days (less than 5 kt on day 5) and is a blend of the TVCA and HCCA consensus aids. Odette's transition to an extratropical cyclone is probably already underway. The storm is also centered over the Gulf Stream, where water temperatures are about 28 degrees Celsius, so in the short term it is likely that a combination of baroclinic and convective forcing will cause some intensification, despite deep-layer shear strengthening to near 30 kt. The global models suggest that Odette should become fully extratropical by 36 hours, and the intensity models indicate that the post-tropical low should peak in intensity in 48-60 hours. The low is then likely to occlude by day 3, a process which typically leads to gradual weakening, which is indicated in the official forecast. Odette is expected to affect portions of Newfoundland with strong winds and heavy rainfall Sunday and Sunday night as a post-tropical cyclone. Please refer to products from Environment Canada for additional information on potential impacts in Newfoundland. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/2100Z 36.7N 71.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 18/0600Z 38.3N 69.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 18/1800Z 39.9N 65.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 19/0600Z 41.6N 61.7W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 19/1800Z 43.6N 57.1W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 20/0600Z 45.0N 52.8W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 20/1800Z 46.0N 49.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 21/1800Z 47.0N 47.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 22/1800Z 47.5N 45.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Berg

BULLETIN Tropical Storm Odette Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152021 500 PM EDT Fri Sep 17 2021 ...TROPICAL STORM ODETTE FORMS OFF THE U.S. MID-ATLANTIC COAST... ...FORECAST TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL BY SATURDAY NIGHT SOUTH OF ATLANTIC CANADA... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...36.7N 71.8W ABOUT 225 MI...365 KM SE OF CAPE MAY NEW JERSEY ABOUT 325 MI...525 KM SSW OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Please refer to products issued by Environment Canada for Odette's potential impacts to Newfoundland as a post-tropical cyclone. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Odette was located near latitude 36.7 North, longitude 71.8 West. Odette is moving toward the northeast near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue into tonight. A turn toward the east-northeast with an increase in forward speed is expected to begin on Saturday and continue through Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Odette will move away from the U.S. Mid-Atlantic coast and pass south of Atlantic Canada over the weekend. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Odette is expected to become a strong post-tropical low by Saturday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) to the north of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches

And PT tomorrow night lol