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yoda

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  1. yoda
    Haven't seen the phrase "violent thunderstorms" in an AFD from LWX in a while SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... The stalled front to our south will begin creeping north as a warm front on Thursday. Early morning low clouds and drizzle may also slide north across southern Maryland and Tidal Potomac and farther into parts of the metro areas Thursday morning. As the day progresses, we should less and less of low clouds and drizzle as daytime heating should mix this out. The warm front will continue to march north during the day Thursday. Winds will become more southerly and increase both at the surface and a few thousand feet above the ground Thursday afternoon. With this increase in southerly winds comes an increase in low level moisture; thus, PWATs could rise quickly from 1.25 to near 2 inches from early Thursday morning through late Thursday evening. This moisture and increase in wind could set the stage for an increased threat for violent thunderstorms and possible flooding Friday into Friday night. The instability will increase through the day on Thursday with the added sunshine and warmth. Temperatures on Thursday will trend upwards with highs expected to reach the middle to upper 70s. A leeside trough of low pressure nearly in sync with a warm front pushing north of our region could be the zone in which showers and a rumble of thunder form Thursday night and mainly across the western zones. Showers and thunderstorms, some on the strong to severe side, could develop over the western zones Friday mid-morning and carrying eastward Friday afternoon with addition development into Friday evening. Heavy rainfall could lead to localized flooding, while the more intense thunderstorms Friday afternoon and evening could produce damaging winds and large hail. High temperatures will reach the upper 70s to lower 80s on Friday with dewpoint temperatures climbing into the middle to upper 60s.
  2. yoda
    Anyone else catch the error in that discussion? Didn't know EF-10 was weak lol
  3. yoda
    12z GFS was
  4. yoda
    Flood Watch National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 439 PM EDT Mon May 23 2022 VAZ025-036>038-508-240445- /O.NEW.KLWX.FA.A.0004.220524T0300Z-220524T1500Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Augusta-Nelson-Albemarle-Greene-Central Virginia Blue Ridge- Including the cities of Wintergreen, Staunton, Stanardsville, Lovingston, Charlottesville, Waynesboro, and Stuarts Draft 439 PM EDT Mon May 23 2022 ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING... * WHAT...Flooding caused by excessive rainfall is possible. * WHERE...Portions of central Virginia and western Virginia, including the following areas: in central Virginia, Albemarle, Central Virginia Blue Ridge, Greene and Nelson. In western Virginia, Augusta. * WHEN...From 11 PM EDT this evening through Tuesday morning. * IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - Moderate to heavy rain is expected to overspread the Central Shenandoah Valley late this evening through midday Tuesday. One to three inches of rain are likely with locally higher amounts possible. This could potentially lead to instances of flooding of small streams and creeks. - Please visit http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood for safety information.
  5. yoda
    12z Euro says near 90 at 18z Monday... while 12z GFS has lower 70s at same time
  6. yoda
    Severe Thunderstorm Watch until 9pm up
  7. yoda
    Hmmm... from the new Day 1 SPC OTLK this morning... its 0/5/5 right now with us in MRGL... but: Early this morning, a substantial amount of convection has progressed into the TN Valley and there is some indication a weak disturbance could evolve from the middle TN activity by sunrise. If so, this feature would progress northeast and likely contribute to renewed convection over the middle Atlantic later today. At this time will not extend SLGT Risk into MD/VA to account for this threat, as this feature may be more readily ascertained by late morning.
  8. yoda
    EF-3 with 150 mph winds
  9. yoda
    Reached 92... BWI did get to 96 I believe
  10. yoda
    at noon DCA 85 IAD 88 BWI 91 EZF 88 CHO 89 RIC 92
  11. yoda
    DCA hasn't really gone anywhere since sunrise... 82 at 11am... while BWI is already 89
  12. yoda
    BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Tornado Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1241 PM EDT Fri May 20 2022 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Tornado Warning for... Northwestern Washington County in north central Maryland... East central Allegany County in western Maryland... Northwestern Morgan County in the Panhandle of West Virginia... * Until 115 PM EDT. * At 1240 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located near Barnes Gap, or 9 miles west of Hancock, moving east at 50 mph. HAZARD...Tornado and quarter size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...For those in the direct path of a tornado touchdown, flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Damage to roofs, siding, and windows may occur. Mobile homes may be damaged or destroyed. Tree damage is likely. * This dangerous storm will be near... Hancock around 1255 PM EDT. Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include Little Orleans, Lineburg and Green Ridge. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris.
  13. yoda
    Tornado Warning for Allegheny County
  14. yoda
    ENH risk up... 30 wind on 1630z OTLK for E PA
  15. yoda
    40/20 tor probs 30/30 hail probs 70/20 wind probs
  16. yoda
    Tornado Watch up TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 251 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1135 AM EDT FRI MAY 20 2022 TORNADO WATCH 251 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM EDT FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS WVC003-027-037-057-065-202300- /O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0251.220520T1535Z-220520T2300Z/ WV . WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BERKELEY HAMPSHIRE JEFFERSON MINERAL MORGAN $$ TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 251 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1135 AM EDT FRI MAY 20 2022 TORNADO WATCH 251 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM EDT FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS MDC001-005-013-015-021-023-025-027-043-510-202300- /O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0251.220520T1535Z-220520T2300Z/ MD . MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLEGANY BALTIMORE CARROLL CECIL FREDERICK GARRETT HARFORD HOWARD WASHINGTON MARYLAND INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE BALTIMORE CITY
  17. yoda
    MRGL risk for just north of DC into most of N and C MD on new Day 1 OTLK... best chance in PA where there is slight risk... 2/5/15
  18. yoda
    Sneaky severe Friday afternoon? Updated Day 2 OTLK discussion from SPC... right now it's just north of DC into N MD including Baltimore and S PA into NJ/DE... ..Mid-Atlantic... A remnant MCV from earlier convection should be present over PA at the start of the period Friday morning. Some strong to perhaps isolated severe thunderstorms may develop ahead of this circulation across parts of southern PA/northern MD into DE and southern NJ Friday afternoon. If convection can form, it would pose a threat for all severe hazards given gradually increasing instability and a favorable kinematic parameter space related to the MCV. Confidence in thunderstorms redeveloping is not particularly high, but there is enough of a signal in guidance to include a small Marginal Risk.
  19. yoda
  20. yoda
    45 million SHIB and 100K DOGE... along with some ADA and GALA
  21. yoda
    Yes I have SHIB. And DOGE
  22. yoda
  23. yoda
    000 NWUS51 KLWX 162206 LSRLWX PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 605 PM EDT MON MAY 16 2022 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0513 PM HAIL 4 SSE CHESAPEAKE BEACH 38.63N 76.52W 05/16/2022 M3.00 INCH CALVERT MD COCORAHS && EVENT NUMBER LWX2203434
  24. yoda
    FWIW, 45 wind does include Baltimore
  25. yoda
    Woah... 45 wind added
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