yoda

MRGL risk on new Day 2 from SPC for Saturday... 5% wind and 2% tor

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CST Thu Dec 09 2021 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...MID-SOUTH...AND LOWER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing several tornadoes and scattered to numerous damaging winds appear probable from mainly Friday evening into Friday night across parts of the lower/mid Mississippi Valley into the lower Ohio Valley and Tennessee Valley. Some of these nocturnal tornadoes may be strong. ...Synopsis... A highly amplified upper trough initially over the western states Friday morning will advance eastward across the Plains through the day, eventually reaching the MS Valley by late Friday night into early Saturday morning. A broad area of enhanced southwesterly mid-level flow will be present ahead of the upper trough over much of the lower/mid MS Valley and OH/TN Valleys. At the surface, a low over southeastern CO Friday morning will develop eastward across the southern/central Plains through the day, before turning northeastward while deepening across parts of the Midwest to Great Lakes Friday evening/night. Substantial low-level moisture, with surface dewpoints generally ranging from the mid 60s to low 70s, will likely already be established at the start of the period Friday morning across central/east TX into the lower MS Valley and Mid-South. As both the large-scale upper trough and related surface low move eastward, this moist low-level airmass is expected to spread quickly northward in tandem with a warm front into parts of the mid MS Valley, OH/TN Valleys, and Southeast by Friday evening. A cold front attendant to the surface low will sweep eastward from the southern/central Plains to the vicinity of the TX Coast and MS River by the end of the period early Saturday morning. ...Lower/Mid Mississippi Valley into the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys and Southeast... A low-level inversion should tend to limit robust thunderstorm development through much of the morning and afternoon on Friday. But, with continued low-level moistening and diurnal heating, between 500-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE will probably develop across the warm sector by early Friday evening. This instability will be more than sufficient to support severe, surface-based thunderstorms. Large-scale ascent preceding the upper trough will eventually erode the cap, and convective initiation appears increasingly likely around 00-03Z Friday evening. Even so, there is still some signal in guidance that surface-based thunderstorms may develop slightly earlier along a pre-frontal confluence band across the lower MS Valley and perhaps into the Mid-South as a subtle embedded shortwave trough overspreads this region through the day. Regardless of the timing of convective initiation, thunderstorms will increase in coverage and intensity by late Friday evening through early Saturday morning along/ahead of the cold front as strong forcing/mid-level height falls preceding the upper trough overspread the warm sector. Deep-layer shear will become quite strong by Friday evening owing to the broad area of enhanced mid-level southwesterly winds. 50-60+ kt of effective bulk shear will easily support updraft organization, including supercells. There remains uncertainty regarding dominant convective mode and overall evolution Friday night. Thunderstorms may develop ahead of the cold front along one or more pre-frontal confluence bands late Friday evening. If this occurs, then a broken band of supercells may develop, with additional thunderstorms forming later along the cold front farther west. Eventually, this convection should congeal into broken line segments and small clusters ahead of the front, while a squall line develops along the cold front itself. The southwesterly winds around 850 mb are still forecast to rapidly increase to 50-60+ kt Friday night across most of the warm sector. Even though winds may not veer much with height through the boundary layer, there will be ample speed shear. Strong 0-1-km SRH will likely support low-level rotation and the potential for tornadoes in any supercell than can develop, and with circulations embedded within the QLCS. Isolated large hail may also occur with any initially discrete storms. In addition, scattered to numerous severe/damaging winds appear likely given the strength of the low/mid-level flow, as it will not take much for convective downdrafts to bring the enhanced flow aloft to the surface. Confidence has increased in a more favorable corridor for organized severe thunderstorms Friday night into early Saturday morning from roughly the vicinity of the MS River in eastern AR and northern MS northward into parts of the lower OH Valley. Across this region, the best overlap of sufficient instability, strong low-level and deep-layer shear, and a potentially favorable supercell mode may overlap for several hours (generally around 03-09Z). Have therefore increased severe wind and tornado probabilities across this region and have introduced and Enhanced Risk. Various forecast soundings from the 00Z NAM across this region show around 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE, and effective SRH in excess of 300 m2/s2. This suggests some potential for nocturnal strong tornadoes. The northern extent of the severe risk across the Midwest and OH Valley remains uncertain. Some northward expansion of severe wind and tornado probabilities was made across this region based on latest guidance showing upper 50s to low 60s surface dewpoints possibly advancing a little farther north. The Slight Risk was also expanded eastward and southward across parts of the lower MS Valley into the TN Valley to account for a line of convection along or ahead of the cold front likely continuing to pose an isolated threat for damaging winds and perhaps a few tornadoes through the end of the period. ..Gleason.. 12/09/2021

I mean dusting to an inch will be nice... considering it will be near 70 on Friday

I'm taking the 6z GFS and holding it tight

I'll take the 3-4" 6z GFS shows for me lol... hr 60 would be fun

Euro is pretty much garbage for all of us from the MA up to NNE tonight

Hope everything is okay and you get better quickly @weathafella

EURO is yuck... maybe 6 hours of snow?

What's nice about the Canadian is that the entire column is cold enough for snow... -5c all the way down to around 900mb

00Z CMC is around a I66 and south event basically... 1-3"

More like 2 inches

I'd be wary most of that accumulated stuff TT shows is sleet... soundings at 90 are def sleety.... 96 is isothermal for a lot of the column

Lol 00z GFS at 78 and 84

Icon is meh... 1-2 for C VA... maybe an inch up to DC

Wouldn't mind the 12z CMC for Wednesday... 1 to 3... but even an inch would be nice to see

Lol next Sunday on 12z GFS... ripping fatties in Winchester while pouring in DC

12z GEFS mean looks good for BR and west for Wednesday

Snow is in the zones... all the way to east of i95 for Tuesday night into Thursday

00z EPS isn't too bad

Well damn lol URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Honolulu HI 326 PM HST Thu Dec 2 2021 ...BLIZZARD WARNING FOR THE BIG ISLAND SUMMITS... HIZ028-031430- /O.UPG.PHFO.WS.A.0004.211204T0400Z-211205T1600Z/ /O.NEW.PHFO.BZ.W.0001.211204T0400Z-211205T1600Z/ Big Island Summits- 326 PM HST Thu Dec 2 2021 ...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM FRIDAY TO 6 AM HST SUNDAY... * WHAT...Blizzard conditions expected. Total snow accumulations of up to 12 inches or more. Winds gusting over 100 mph. * WHERE...Big Island Summits. * WHEN...From 6 PM Friday to 6 AM HST Sunday. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. Blowing snow will significantly reduce visibility at times, with periods of zero visibility. See the High Wind Warning that is also in effect. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The strong winds will likely cause significant drifting of snow. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Travel should be restricted to emergencies only. If you must travel, have a winter survival kit with you. If you get stranded, stay with your vehicle.