yoda

I think we are waiting for the WF to come through later

@Kmlwx you'd like the 08z HRRR helicity swath lol Sim radar looks pretty nice on that run as well

I'll take the 06z and 07z HRRR btw. Wonder if that severe squall line out west will be laying down boundaries for this afternoon 06z NAM NEST still not enthusiastic for really anything, 06z NAM now shows storms coming in around 21z 00z FV3 also not enthusiastic... 06z RAP seems its very enthusiastic lol

@high risk why would looping hodos suppress updraft development? Too much wind shear? NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... A warm front lifting north of the area today combined with southerly flow from high pressure offshore, will lead to plenty of warm and moist air in the forecast area. Additionally, a cold front approaching from the west will create an environment conducive to rain showers and possible severe thunderstorms. Moderate CAPE, strong shear, and the frontal boundary approaching during peak heating lead to possible strong to severe thunderstorms. That being said, model soundings show looping hodographs, due to wind shear,which may suppress updraft development.Showers and a few thunderstorms continue this evening and into the overnight as the cold front moves through the forecast area.

TORE Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Memphis TN 123 AM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025 MSC009-093-TNC047-069-030700- /O.CON.KMEG.TO.W.0085.000000T0000Z-250403T0700Z/ Marshall MS-Benton MS-Fayette TN-Hardeman TN- 123 AM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025 ...TORNADO EMERGENCY FOR SLADEN... ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 AM CDT FOR NORTH CENTRAL MARSHALL...NORTHERN BENTON...SOUTHEASTERN FAYETTE AND SOUTHWESTERN HARDEMAN COUNTIES... At 122 AM CDT, a confirmed large and destructive tornado was located over Slayden, or 12 miles north of Holly Springs, moving northeast at 50 mph. TORNADO EMERGENCY for Slayden. This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW! HAZARD...Deadly tornado. SOURCE...Radar confirmed tornado. IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris may be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be destroyed. Considerable damage to homes, businesses, and vehicles is likely and complete destruction is possible. Locations impacted include... Ghost River State Natural Area, Saulsbury, Mt Pleasant, Lagrange, La Grange, Moscow, Early Grove, Williston, Grand Junction, Michigan City, Lamar, Hays Crossing, Pattersonville, Slayden, Forty Five, Taska, Rossville, and Somerville. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... To repeat, a large, extremely dangerous, and potentially deadly tornado is on the ground. To protect your life, TAKE COVER NOW! Move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If in a mobile home, a vehicle or outdoors, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. Tornadoes are extremely difficult to see and confirm at night. Do not wait to see or hear the tornado. TAKE COVER NOW!

Day 2 1730z SPC OTLK disco for our region ...Kentucky to the Mid-Atlantic... Day 1 convection and cloud cover will significantly inhibit severe weather potential on Day 2 along the frontal zone from Kentucky to the Mid-Atlantic. Trimmed probabilities farther south near the Ohio River based on latest forecast front location. Otherwise, a moist airmass will remain in place along and south of the front/remnant outflow. Therefore, only minimal heating will be needed for some storms to develop which could be supercellular given 45 to 55 knots of effective shear along the frontal zone. Overall height rises should keep stronger storm coverage isolated to potentially scattered. Some damaging wind/large hail, and perhaps a tornado threat may exist within this corridor on Thursday, but the exact locations of this threat remains uncertain at this time.

Still 2/5/15 on 1730z SPC OTLK... but 15% hail was moved NE into W VA and WV

12z HRRR wasn't too bad either... 12z WRF-ARW looked decent in MD

Gleason/Leitman extended the HIGH risk further south into AR on 1300z update

Mod risk for tornadoes was considered for more of IN/W OH per 1300z SPC OTLK In addition to the tornado threat, large to very large hail (up to 2-3 inches in diameter) and severe/damaging wind gusts may occur with these supercells and bowing clusters. A linear mode appears more likely with northward extent across the mid MS Valley into the southern Great Lakes as the cold front continues eastward today. But, this area will also have less time to destabilize ahead of the ongoing convection, which casts some uncertainty on the northern extent of the substantial severe threat. Have trimmed the Marginal/Slight Risks some across the Upper Midwest, but the Enhanced Risk remains unchanged for now. Some risk for supercells ahead of the line/clusters will exist across the OH Valley/Midwest. But, confidence in this scenario occurring was not great enough to expand the Moderate Risk for tornadoes northward into more of IN and western OH.

SLGT risk up for Thursday 2/5/15 .OH Valley into the Mid Atlantic... Complications abound from overnight convection likely persisting into the daylight hours across the OH Valley. The front is forecast to continue to sag south and stall eventually across the OH Valley and Mid Atlantic by midday Thursday. South of the boundary low 60s F surface dewpoints and some filtered diurnal heating should support around 1000 J/kg of MLCAPE. Several embedded mid-level perturbations may provide enough ascent for additional convective development through the day. Vertical shear will remain strong as increasingly zonal winds aloft overspread the frontal zone. Several clusters of strong to severe storms are possible along the front with a risk primarily for damaging winds and tornado or two, given the relatively poor mid-level lapse rates and veered low-level flow.

Conditional risk on Thursday afternoon FWIW

ENH remains for you

Looks like @WxUSAF getting some goodies

Yuck

Well then

00z GFS really pushing the cold back in here after this upcoming weekend... frost advisories and freeze warnings would be required. Highs only in the 40s some days

DCA 86 and IAD 82

Wouldn't mind that 00z NAM sim radar at 00z/03z Tues... that looks nice Rather would take the 00z HRRR though lol

Pretty good looking sim radar on the 18z NAM at 00z/03z Tuesday 12z and 18z NAM NEST sim radars looked decent too

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 PM CDT Sat Mar 29 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS A LARGE PART OF THE EASTERN U.S. INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Strong/severe thunderstorms are forecast Monday from portions of the Northeast southwestward to the central Gulf Coast region. ...Synopsis... A surface low is forecast to intensify as it moves northeastward from the Lower Great Lakes into southeast Canada through the day Monday morning in tandem with a leading shortwave trough. A trailing cold front is expected to push east/southeast into the upper OH River Valley and lower MS Valley/Southeast early Monday morning as a second low-amplitude wave traverses the eastern CONUS. Thunderstorm potential will be focused along this front as it continues to push into New England, the Mid-Atlantic, and into the southeast states through the late afternoon and evening hours. ...Central Gulf States... Strong to severe thunderstorms may be ongoing by 12z Monday as a squall line forced along the cold front continues to push southeast across MS and AL. A combination of rich low-level moisture ahead of the line, diurnal heating, strong low to mid-level flow, and broad scale ascent ahead of the secondary upper wave should help maintain convective intensity into the afternoon hours. A corridor of damaging/severe winds, and potentially embedded tornadoes, appears probable from central MS into AL and western GA. ...Central Appalachians... Thunderstorm development along the front is expected by early to mid-afternoon from the upper OH Valley southward into the Mid-Atlantic region. Returning moisture through the Carolinas northward into eastern PA/western NY, combined with mid-level lapse rates around 7 C/km, should support sufficient buoyancy for deep convection, though buoyancy values should diminish with northward extent across the central Appalachians. Moderate flow within the lowest few kilometers should support a damaging wind threat as convection matures along the front across the upper OH Valley. Further south, stronger ascent ahead of the secondary upper wave should promote better storm organization, including the potential for semi-discrete cells and/or organized linear segments. Medium-range guidance suggests low-level winds will strengthen across the Mid-Atlantic region as a weak secondary low deepens through late afternoon in the lee of the Appalachians, which may support an enlargement of the 0-3 km hodograph and a locally higher tornado threat across the Carolinas into VA. ..Moore.. 03/29/2025

@high risk @George BM @Eskimo Joe @Kmlwx LWX talking up Monday severe threat in this morning's AFD: By Monday, the conglomerate upper trough will approach and then cross the Mid-Atlantic. The surface cold front is rather potent. There is some spread in the guidance as to the depth, speed, and amplitude of the upper trough especially by Monday night, with some suggesting a negative tilt. The more amplified guidance develops a stronger wave of low pressure nearby or overhead Monday evening, which would result in more widespread showers and thunderstorms with perhaps multiple rounds. This may also cause the surface front to slow a bit, which would mean more (beneficial) rain. Regardless of the exact trough evolution, guidance is in good agreement on (1) modest surface heating through broken clouds ahead of the trough resulting in 500-1,000 J/kg of MLCAPE, and (2) strong SW flow of 40-50 knots in the 850-700 hPa layer. These factors would lend to a risk of strong to severe thunderstorms along and ahead of the front. All severe modes (i.e. damaging wind, hail, and tornadoes) would be possible, but hail and tornadoes would be more likely if storms were to remain more discrete and/or surface winds were to become more backed (this is most likely in the more amplified scenario, as is a more organized line or lines of convection which would heighten the damaging wind risk).

I see its apparently from down near the CHO area https://fire.airnow.gov/#8/38.292/-77.684 Also, I thought smoke was FU... its K? Area Forecast Matrices National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 236 AM EDT Sat Mar 29 2025 DCZ001-292000- District of Columbia- Including the city of Washington 236 AM EDT Sat Mar 29 2025 Date Sat 03/29/25 Sun 03/30/25 Mon 03/31/25 EDT 3hrly 05 08 11 14 17 20 23 02 05 08 11 14 17 20 23 02 05 08 11 14 17 20 UTC 3hrly 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 Max/Min 84 63 78 63 79 Temp 57 57 68 80 84 75 69 66 64 63 73 77 77 71 67 65 64 64 71 75 77 71 Dewpt 45 46 48 45 46 51 53 53 53 54 55 55 56 57 55 57 58 59 61 60 61 61 RH 64 67 49 29 27 43 57 63 67 72 53 47 48 61 65 75 81 84 71 60 58 71 Wind dir SW SW SW SW SW S SW SW SW SW SW SW S S S S S S S S S SW Wind spd 8 6 8 11 10 6 6 6 6 8 10 12 11 9 9 10 10 10 13 14 13 10 Wind gust 18 20 23 21 26 27 26 20 Clouds B1 B2 B2 B1 B2 B1 B2 B2 B2 B1 B2 B2 B2 B2 B2 B2 B2 B2 B2 B2 B2 B2 PoP 12hr 10 10 20 30 80 QPF 12hr 0 0 0.01 0.03 0.16 Rain shwrs S S S S C C S S D D L Tstms S C C C Obvis K PF PF

Where is the smoke coming from? Its in the majority of the zones for this morning DCZ001-291000- District of Columbia- Including the city of Washington 234 AM EDT Sat Mar 29 2025 .OVERNIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 50s. Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph. .SATURDAY...Mostly cloudy in the morning, then becoming partly sunny. Patchy smoke in the morning. Highs in the mid 80s. Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph with gusts up to 20 mph. .SATURDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Lows in the lower 60s. Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph.