yoda

@RodneyS looks like 0.2" was the total FYI -- https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=lwx&issuedby=LWX&product=PNS ...Loudoun County... Bluemont 1 WSW 1.8 309 PM 1/03 Since 130 PM Hughesville 1 ESE 0.8 235 PM 1/03 Trained Spotter Arcola 3 S 0.3 330 PM 1/03 Trained Spotter Dulles International 0.2 437 PM 1/03 Official NWS Obs Purcellville 0.2 748 PM 1/03 Co-Op Observer Ashburn 1 W 0.2 319 PM 1/03 NWS Employee

We'll just skip and toss the 06z UKIE lol It did increase QPF a tad and snow amounts... but shifted south about 50 miles more

Still a nice 3-6/4-8... nothing to sneeze at

Nice storm.... heaviest still a tad SE of us.. but still very nice 06z GFS run

Ripping snow again at 03z TUES due to excellent h5/h7 pass south of us... done by around 07z

light snow returns 21z MON. Mod snow across most of the region at 00z TUES

all snow DC metro through 15z MON. thermals touch 0c at 800mb at 15z... precip is lighter... so maybe some sleet in there... but should still be snow

Ripping snow at 09z MON... thermals all systems go

Snow moves into DC metro around 05z MON on 06z GFS

06z RGEM 00z RGEM

north with its snowfall totals. I only have the regional view though. Will post 00z and 06z in a min. Also increased amounts

06z RGEM is all snow for DC metro once again

06z ICON took a 50 mile jog north with its snowfall totals compared to 00z FWIW (i.e. increased them in C MD)

FXUS61 KLWX 040904 AFDLWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 404 AM EST Sat Jan 4 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will briefly build in by tonight. A strong low pressure system will bring wintry precipitation late Sunday into Monday. Below normal temperatures continue through next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Strong high pressure is building southeastward from central Canada with low pressure situated over Quebec. Broad troughing encompasses the eastern US. Upslope snows are dwindling this morning with additional accumulations of an inch or two at most. However, winds are still strong which will reduce visibility in falling snow and result in blowing/drifting of the snow on the ground. A Cold Weather Advisory also remains in effect for the high peaks due to wind chills less than -10. Elsewhere, expect cold and blustery conditions today, with winds gusting 20-35 mph. This will result in wind chills in the teens and 20s through the day with highs only in the upper 20s and mid 30s. Stratocumulus may tend to expand across the northern half of the area through the day before clouds finally retreat tonight. Temperatures will drop into the teens to lower 20s tonight for much of the area with single digits in the Alleghenies. Additional Cold Weather Advisories for the high Alleghenies may need to be considered, although winds will be gradually diminishing. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... The focus for Sunday and Monday will be the potent low pressure system moving from the Mid Mississippi Valley to the east coast. Precipitation will spread into the area late Sunday afternoon and into the evening (perhaps not reaching northeast Maryland until late Sunday night). While not a classic cold air damming set up, the antecedent cold airmass will be plenty supportive of wintry precipitation across the entire area. With 00Z guidance, there are essentially two camps, although both offer the potential for a heavy frontogenetic snow band to the north of the warm nose. A northern solution would result in mixed precipitation up to the Potomac River/US-50 or so, with the heaviest snow across the northern half of the area (and close to a quarter inch of ice south of I-64). A southern solution would result in the heaviest snow across the southern half of the area, with far northern/northeast Maryland receiving a minimum of snow. It`s also worth noting temperatures could warm enough Monday for Nelson and St. Marys Counties to change to rain. In the end, there`s a strong signal for the potential of heavy snow and/or a mix that includes significant sleet and freezing rain across most of the forecast area. Therefore, Winter Storm Watches have been issued. For worst-case scenario planning, the potential band of 8-12 inches of snow could set up nearly anywhere within the forecast area. Precipitation will wind down Monday night. However, there is an increasing signal for wrap- around snow. Steepening lapse rates through the dendritic snow zone in a cooling column could result in another round of locally heavy, fluffy snow on the back end. Hopefully some of these details can be refined in the next 24 hours.

I thought 7H FGEN was better to look at then 85H in regards to rates?

All of MD (excluding SE MD)/S PA/DE clean up well. reason why DC metro and most of VA being don't do as well is because there is a warm nose centered around 800mb that shows up

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 328 AM EST Sat Jan 4 2025 DCZ001-MDZ013-014-016>018-502>504-VAZ027>031-039-040-051-053>055-057- 501-502-505-506-526-527-WVZ050>053-055-502-504-041630- /O.NEW.KLWX.WS.A.0002.250106T0000Z-250107T0600Z/ District of Columbia-Prince Georges-Anne Arundel-Charles-St. Marys-Calvert-Central and Eastern Allegany-Northwest Montgomery- Central and Southeast Montgomery-Shenandoah-Frederick VA-Page- Warren-Clarke-Madison-Rappahannock-Culpeper-Fairfax- Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria-Stafford-King George-Northern Fauquier-Southern Fauquier-Western Loudoun-Eastern Loudoun- Northwest Prince William-Central and Southeast Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park-Hampshire-Morgan-Berkeley- Jefferson-Hardy-Eastern Grant-Eastern Mineral- 328 AM EST Sat Jan 4 2025 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT... * WHAT...Heavy snow possible, with potential for some sleet and freezing rain. Total snow and sleet accumulations of 5 inches or greater and ice accumulations up to one tenth of an inch possible. A localized band with up to 10 inches of snow is possible. * WHERE...Washington DC, and portions of central, southern, and western Maryland, central, northern, and northwest Virginia, and eastern West Virginia. * WHEN...From Sunday evening through late Monday night. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions could impact the Monday morning and evening commutes.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 328 AM EST Sat Jan 4 2025 VAZ025-026-036>038-050-056-504-507-508-WVZ506-041630- /O.NEW.KLWX.WS.A.0002.250105T2100Z-250107T0300Z/ Augusta-Rockingham-Nelson-Albemarle-Greene-Orange-Spotsylvania- Eastern Highland-Northern Virginia Blue Ridge-Central Virginia Blue Ridge-Eastern Pendleton- 328 AM EST Sat Jan 4 2025 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING... * WHAT...Heavy snow, sleet, and freezing rain possible. Total snow and sleet accumulations of 5 inches or greater and ice accumulations up to one quarter of an inch possible. A localized band with up to 10 inches of snow is possible. * WHERE...Portions of central, northwest, and western Virginia and eastern West Virginia. * WHEN...From Sunday afternoon through Monday evening. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions could impact the Monday morning and evening commutes.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 328 AM EST Sat Jan 4 2025 MDZ003>006-008-011-505>508-041630- /O.NEW.KLWX.WS.A.0002.250106T0300Z-250107T0600Z/ Washington-Frederick MD-Carroll-Northern Baltimore-Cecil-Southern Baltimore-Northwest Howard-Central and Southeast Howard-Northwest Harford-Southeast Harford- 328 AM EST Sat Jan 4 2025 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT... * WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 5 inches or greater possible. A localized band with up to 10 inches of snow is possible. * WHERE...Portions of central, northeast, and northern Maryland. * WHEN...From Sunday evening through late Monday night. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions could impact the Monday morning and evening commutes.

Watches up from LWX

DCA barely holding on to heavy snow at 12z MON

heavy snow at DCA at 09z MON. However, EZF is pinging

Snow moves in around 05z MON for DC metro... snowing moderately DC south at 06z MON on 06z NAM. Also mod snow for WV/MD west of HGR/NW VA

06z NAM precip shield is a bit norther (as in bigger) at 39 compared to 00z 45. See in WV/OH