yoda

Hmmm, from this morning LWX AFD The end of the week into this weekend is starting to look more interesting with each run of model guidance. Those two upper-lows may try to phase into one over the eastern CONUS during this timeframe. Should this occur, a powerful surface low could bring some impactful weather to the region. Lots of uncertainty at this point however, so going to keep it vague for now. Just know that this is a period to watch this week.

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 112 PM EDT Sat May 24 2025 MDZ509-VAZ503-WVZ501-505-250115- /O.NEW.KLWX.FR.Y.0005.250525T0500Z-250525T1300Z/ Western Garrett-Western Highland-Western Grant-Western Pendleton- 112 PM EDT Sat May 24 2025 ...FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY... * WHAT...Temperatures as low as 34 will result in frost formation, especially in valleys. * WHERE...In Maryland, Western Garrett County. In Virginia, Western Highland County. In West Virginia, Western Grant and Western Pendleton Counties. * WHEN...From 1 AM to 9 AM EDT Sunday. * IMPACTS...Frost could harm sensitive outdoor vegetation. Sensitive outdoor plants may be killed if left uncovered. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold

Did NWS Nashville lose power or shelter? All of their warnings and updates are coming from NWS Fort Worth the past 20 minutes

Sounds like another good soaking late Tuesday into Thursday... another 1-2"

New severe thunderstorm watch up for WV until 5am https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0273.html URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 273 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 PM EDT Fri May 16 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Far Southeast Ohio Western Virginia West Virginia * Effective this Friday night and Saturday morning from 1130 PM until 500 AM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Clusters of thunderstorms should spread eastward overnight while posing a threat for mainly scattered severe/damaging winds, with peak gusts up to 60-70 mph. Isolated hail and perhaps a tornado or two may also occur. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles east and west of a line from 35 miles east northeast of Parkersburg WV to 5 miles west southwest of Bluefield WV. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes.

@nrgjeff tornado watch coming https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0830.html Mesoscale Discussion 0830 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0818 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025 Areas affected...Middle and Eastern Tennessee Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 170118Z - 170215Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...A tornado watch will be need this evening for Middle and Eastern Tennessee, as a line of supercell thunderstorms has developed along a surface cold front and begun moving east-southeastward. Potentially strong tornadoes, damaging winds of 60-80 MPH, and large hail are all possible with severe storms this evening. DISCUSSION...Ongoing severe thunderstorms extending from southwestern Kentucky into northern Arkansas are expected to persist and move southeastward into Middle and Eastern Tennessee this evening. 00Z sounding data from OHX shows modest to strong low-level shear, with 0-1 km SRH of 220 m^2/s^2, little to no remaining capping, and a deep effective inflow layer -- all supportive of supercells capable of producing tornadoes. However, with shear vector components being largely boundary-parallel, and some recent trends in upscale growth evident on radar, a transition from isolated supercells to supercells embedded in a quasilinear convective system is anticipated. As this transition occurs, the threat will shift from tornadoes to a damaging wind threat, with wind gusts of 60-80 MPH possible with the strongest thunderstorm outflow. Any tornadoes that do develop have the potential to be strong, and tornado watch issuance will be needed soon. ..Halbert/Gleason.. 05/17/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...OHX...HUN...MEG... LAT...LON 35858806 36388807 36608766 36598578 36608489 36558386 36538364 36498350 36408346 36338347 36158361 35668392 35368416 35128446 35128641 35148706 35168755 35388792 35858806 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...140-170 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN

Mesoscale Discussion 0829 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0737 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025 Areas affected...Central and Eastern Ohio...Western Pennsylvania Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 170037Z - 170300Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...A tornado / wind-damage threat may develop across parts of central and eastern Ohio into western Pennsylvania later this evening. As a severe convective line organizes and approaches, weather watch issuance may be needed. DISCUSSION...The latest mosaic radar imagery shows a cluster of supercells in the lower Ohio valley. These storms are located along and near an axis of moderate to strong instability. The northern extension of the instability axis is located from central and northern Ohio into northwestern Pennsylvania, where MLCAPE is in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range, according to the RAP. As the convective cluster grows upscale, a linear MCS is expected to organize and move eastward through the remainder of the Ohio Valley this evening. Short-term model forecasts suggest the severe MCS will move eastward into the central Appalachians. Uncertainty exists concerning how far north this feature will track. If the severe part of the MCS ends up moving through central and northern Ohio, then a severe threat will be likely over parts of eastern Ohio and western Pennsylvania by mid to late evening. QLCS tornadoes and wind-damage will be the primary threats. ..Broyles/Gleason.. 05/17/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PBZ...CLE...ILN... LAT...LON 40358297 40198141 40508065 41238044 41808100 41838224 41648344 41468379 40908372 40358297 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN

Is this the area we are watching for our overnight threat? https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0269.html

New ones or from the MCS?

Now we wait to see what comes tonight

48 49 50 601 NWUS51 KLWX 162144 LSRLWX Preliminary Local Storm Report National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 544 PM EDT Fri May 16 2025 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0529 PM Tstm Wnd Dmg Alexandria 38.82N 77.09W 05/16/2025 City of Alexandria VA 911 Call Center Several trees down with multiple power outages reports in the City of Alexandria. && Event Number LWX2504863

Tornado Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 559 PM EDT Fri May 16 2025 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Tornado Warning for... East central Baltimore City in northern Maryland... Southeastern Baltimore County in northern Maryland... * Until 630 PM EDT. * At 559 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located over Dundalk, or near Sparrows Point, moving east at 35 mph. HAZARD...Tornado. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...For those in the direct path of a tornado touchdown, flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Damage to roofs, siding, and windows may occur. Mobile homes may be damaged or destroyed. Tree damage is likely. * This dangerous storm will be near... Dundalk, North Point State Park, Back River, Millers Island, and Essex around 605 PM EDT. Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include Edgemere and Eastpoint.

48 49 50 222 NWUS51 KLWX 162149 LSRLWX Preliminary Local Storm Report National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 549 PM EDT Fri May 16 2025 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0525 PM Tstm Wnd Dmg 1 N Franconia 38.78N 77.15W 05/16/2025 Fairfax VA Public Public report of multiple trees snapped near the intersection of Franconia Road and Beulah Street. && Event Number LWX2504865

Trees snapped and heavy power outages in city of Alexandria

Tornado Warning Baltimore city proper

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 527 PM EDT Fri May 16 2025 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Northeastern Carroll County in north central Maryland... Northwestern Baltimore County in northern Maryland... * Until 600 PM EDT. * At 526 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Westminster, moving east at 40 mph. THIS IS A DESTRUCTIVE STORM FOR NORTHERN CARROLL AND NORTHERN BALTIMORE COUNTIES. HAZARD...80 mph wind gusts and two inch hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Expect considerable damage to trees and power lines. Your life is at significant risk if outdoors. In addition to some trees falling into homes, wind damage is possible to roofs, sheds, open garages, and mobile homes. * Locations impacted include... Westminster, Glencoe, Carrollton, Upperco, Hunt Valley, Hampstead, Sparks, Boring, Bentley Springs, Patapsco, Reese, Parkton, Manchester, Phoenix, Hereford, Millers, Greenmount, Jacksonville, Butler, and Monkton. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... This storm is producing destructive winds and large damaging hail. SEEK SHELTER NOW inside a sturdy structure and stay away from windows! To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement agency. They will send your report to the National Weather Service office in Sterling Virginia. && LAT...LON 3962 7657 3960 7656 3959 7655 3948 7655 3951 7705 3967 7705 3971 7657 TIME...MOT...LOC 2126Z 268DEG 34KT 3960 7696 THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE THREAT...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...2.00 IN WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX WIND GUST...80 MPH

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 519 PM EDT Fri May 16 2025 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Central Montgomery County in central Maryland... * Until 545 PM EDT. * At 518 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Boyds, or near Germantown, moving east at 40 mph. THIS IS A DESTRUCTIVE STORM FOR POOLESVILLE, DAWSONVILLE, AND GAITHERSBURG. HAZARD...80 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Expect considerable damage to trees and power lines. Your life is at significant risk if outdoors. In addition to some trees falling into homes, wind damage is possible to roofs, sheds, open garages, and mobile homes. * Locations impacted include... Derwood, Gaithersburg, Washington Grove, Olney, Aspen Hill, North Potomac, Germantown, Boyds, Redland, Rockville, Laytonsville, Brookeville, Norbeck, Dawsonville, Rossmoor, Montgomery Village, Darnestown, Glenmont, Wheaton-Glenmont, and Clarksburg. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement agency. They will send your report to the National Weather Service office in Sterling Virginia. && LAT...LON 3908 7739 3918 7738 3922 7725 3923 7704 3907 7704 TIME...MOT...LOC 2118Z 266DEG 35KT 3913 7731 THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE THREAT...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX WIND GUST...80 MPH

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 512 PM EDT Fri May 16 2025 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Carroll County in north central Maryland... Baltimore City in northern Maryland... Northern Anne Arundel County in central Maryland... Northern Howard County in central Maryland... North central Montgomery County in central Maryland... Northwestern Harford County in northern Maryland... Eastern Frederick County in north central Maryland... Baltimore County in northern Maryland... Northwestern Cecil County in northeastern Maryland... * Until 615 PM EDT. * At 512 PM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line extending from Manchester to near Gamber to Mount Airy, moving east at 35 mph. HAZARD...Golf ball size hail and 70 mph wind gusts. SOURCE...Law enforcement has reported significant tree damage in Frederick County Maryland. A trained spotter reported golf ball sized hail in Westminster. IMPACT...Expect wind damage to trees and power lines. Hail is large enough to dent and damage vehicles. Some hail damage to roofs, siding, and windows is possible. * Locations impacted include... Nottingham, Carrollton, Henryton, Owings Mills, Parkville, Hampstead, Riderwood, Gaither, Dundalk, Eastpoint, Halethorpe, Mcdonogh, Sykesville, Street, Upper Falls, Rossville, Monkton, Ellicott City, Benson, and Lisbon. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement agency. They will send your report to the National Weather Service office in Sterling Virginia. && LAT...LON 3942 7636 3923 7652 3928 7743 3972 7721 3972 7623 TIME...MOT...LOC 2112Z 266DEG 29KT 3968 7687 3946 7704 3935 7713 THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE HAIL THREAT...OBSERVED MAX HAIL SIZE...1.75 IN WIND THREAT...OBSERVED MAX WIND GUST...70 MPH

-031-VAC059-061-107-153-162115- /O.CON.KLWX.SV.W.0083.000000T0000Z-250516T2115Z/ Montgomery MD-Frederick MD-Loudoun VA-Fairfax VA-Fauquier VA- Prince William VA- 446 PM EDT Fri May 16 2025 ...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 515 PM EDT FOR WEST CENTRAL MONTGOMERY COUNTY IN CENTRAL MARYLAND...SOUTHERN FREDERICK COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL MARYLAND...LOUDOUN...NORTHWESTERN FAIRFAX...NORTH CENTRAL FAUQUIER AND NORTHWESTERN PRINCE WILLIAM COUNTIES IN NORTHERN VIRGINIA... At 446 PM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line extending from near Brunswick to near Purcellville to near Middleburg, moving east at 50 mph. HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by downed trees. Localized power outages are possible. Unsecured light objects may become projectiles. Locations impacted include... Catharpin, Gleedsville, Waterford, Woolsey, Belmont, Aldie, Poolesville, Philomont, Lincoln, Herndon, Darnestown, The Plains, Saint Louis, Paeonian Springs, Lowes Island, Neersville, Lucketts, Brambleton, Lansdowne, and Great Falls. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. To report severe weather contact your nearest law enforcement agency. They will send your report to the National Weather Service office in Sterling Virginia. && LAT...LON 3922 7727 3903 7727 3882 7740 3883 7778 3903 7785 3908 7786 3927 7776 TIME...MOT...LOC 2046Z 261DEG 41KT 3925 7766 3913 7767 3904 7776 THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN WIND THREAT...OBSERVED MAX WIND GUST...70 MPH

New watch issued till 11pm

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0820.html Mesoscale Discussion 0820 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0314 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025 Areas affected...western/central PA to northern VA Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 263... Valid 162014Z - 162215Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 263 continues. SUMMARY...A mix of damaging winds and severe hail remains possible through early evening from western to central Pennsylvania southward into northern Virginia. A corridor of greater damaging wind potential is apparent in central Maryland, the District of Columbia, and far northern Virginia. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm coverage has steadily increased ahead of a minor MCV, and separately along a wavy outflow boundary. Measured strong to severe wind gusts have occurred along the outflow associated with the MCV. Very strong mid-level winds persist in the wake of this MCV, as sampled by recent RLX VWP data. With surface temperatures in the mid to upper 80s ahead of this outflow, yielding peak MLCAPE of 2000-2500 J/kg, damaging wind swaths are most probable into central MD to far northern VA. Farther north, convection has largely struggled, outside of a slow-moving supercell along the separate outflow boundary in south-central PA. Mixed severe hail and damaging wind will remain possible here, amid weak low-level shear/SRH. ..Grams.. 05/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...PBZ... LAT...LON 41077947 41107851 41097790 40777722 39657638 38947630 38457635 38177670 38587811 39107820 39617826 40137886 40727947 41077947 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN

Northern part warned for ping pong ball sized hail BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 400 PM EDT Fri May 16 2025 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Northwestern Montgomery County in central Maryland... Southeastern Frederick County in north central Maryland... Northeastern Loudoun County in northern Virginia... * Until 445 PM EDT. * At 400 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Point Of Rocks, or 7 miles northwest of Poolesville, moving east at 30 mph. HAZARD...Ping pong ball size hail and 60 mph wind gusts. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by downed trees. Localized power outages are possible. Unsecured light objects may become projectiles. * Locations impacted include... Clarksburg, Damascus, Doubs, Park Mills, Lucketts, Adamstown, Barnesville, Green Valley, Point Of Rocks, Laytonsville, Dickerson, Monrovia, Tuscarora, Taylorstown, Montgomery Village, Buckeystown, and Germantown. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. && LAT...LON 3939 7719 3935 7718 3934 7719 3931 7717 3918 7713 3921 7759 3928 7758 TIME...MOT...LOC 2000Z 267DEG 25KT 3924 7749 HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...1.50 IN WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

Right turn and rewarned looks like to me

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 332 PM EDT Fri May 16 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A warm front is expected to lift through and to the northeast of the region today into late afternoon. A low pressure system will move into the Great Lakes today with a trailing cold front pushing through the area on Saturday. High pressure will build in from the north Sunday and Monday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING/... A Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued for areas generally about a county north of the Interstate 64 corridor and areas north of that into PA until 10 PM this evening. This is in response to a combination of several key features. THe first of which is a remnant outflow boundary that was laid down this morning by a line of severe thunderstorms that passed to our northeast. This boundary is gradually washing out/drifting slowly towards the southeast into a hot and humid airmass, characterized by temperatures well into the 80s and dew points into the 70s. The result of this air mass is extreme instability values, with MLCAPE in the 2000-2500+ J/kg range. Lapse rates are going to continue to steepen into the afternoon in the low- levels, and they are already pretty high for Mid-Atlantic standards (around 7 C/km) in the mid-levels. The second key feature is a remnant MCV that is moving out of the KY/WV region, with ongoing convection moving into western portions of our forecast area. The expectation is that that ongoing MCS will move off towards the northeast, but outflow from this system will reignite convection as it cross the mountains into eastern WV/western MD. The one factor that does lead to some uncertainty is the presence of some pretty substantial westerly flow aloft. Oftentimes, this can squash a convective threat in this region. Guidance is generally leaning towards some development along the aforementioned boundaries however, so perhaps the remnant MCV is enough to overcome these mid-level westerlies. So, leaning more towards convection being able to develop than not. Once it does get going in our area, as mentioned previously, it is going to have a very favorable environment for explosive development and a substantial damaging wind threat into this evening as it drifts east. Additionally, given some very fat CAPE profiles, large hail would also be a substantial threat if more isolated convection is able to develop. This round of storms should move through pretty quickly into this evening, likely clearing the Chesapeake Bay by around 8-10 PM or so. Then most of the area should dry out, though a few lingering showers/storms may hang around if there are any remnant outflows hanging around. Outside of the severe component of all of this, there could be a non-zero flash flooding threat this afternoon/evening as well. Accompanying these threats will be very heavy rainfall rates at times and could occur over areas that had already taken on a lot of rainfall in the past few days. Additionally, there could end up being some training issues along that initial west-east oriented outflow boundary set down this morning. A Flood Watch wasn`t considered at this time, largely due to the uncertain nature of the convective evolution this afternoon. A marginal risk for excessive rainfall is also highlighted for our area today for the localized potential for some flash flooding. Another round of severe weather could be on the horizon later this evening into the overnight hours. This is still very uncertain though, and very dependent on yet another MCS developing to our west and tracking in such a way that would impact our area. Since we won`t have our daytime heating, the severity could be diminished some, but the humidity, nearby trough, approaching cold front on Saturday could be enough to make it interesting in terms of severe elements overnight. At this time, would feel more confident that this occurs across central/southern VA, but can`t be 100 percent certain at this time. This is very much a "wait and see what develops" scenario and will be much more in the way of NOWcasting later today. &&

1pm temps DCA 84 IAD 87 BWI 85