yoda

SLGT risk for everyone on new Day 2 morning update... 2/15/15 ENH introduced in SE VA into the Carolinas

The Twilight Zone?

Afternoon AFD from LWX on the severe threat An active weather day lies ahead on Wednesday with areas along and east of the Blue Ridge in a Day 3 Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms. The 12Z high-resolution model suite shows two possible rounds of convection. What remains of a line of severe thunderstorms tracking across the Tennessee Valley on Tuesday night will overspread the local area late Wednesday morning into the afternoon. Anticipate the Mid-Atlantic region being heavily clouded over which would limit the available instability. Heading into the remainder of the afternoon hours, temperatures should push into the low/mid 60s, with mainly 50s over mountain locales. Models show a dry slot pushing through the area which may allow for some breaks in the cloud cover. As this occurs, the 0-6 km vertical shear increases to some rather extreme values of 85 to 95 knots. Given enough residual buoyancy in the atmosphere, a discernible risk of severe weather would occur. However, as usual, a number of factors have to be ironed out in the next day. For now, prepare for a potential of damaging wind gusts, along with a tornado or two.

(from this afternoon AFD from LWX for the weekend) This coming weekend could get rather interesting across the area. Model guidance for a while now has hinted at a powerful storm system impacting some portions of the Mid-Atlantic. This has not gone away, and some of the deterministic guidance has painted a really interesting picture over our region. However, its important not to get to caught up in individual model runs at this juncture, as they will waffle around between different scenarios many times between now and then. There are several upper-level features that look to interact to make this system happen, which is often very poorly modeled at this time range. The key is, all hazards look to be in play with this system, it is just a matter of where. Our region could see anything from heavy rain, to perhaps even some areas seeing heavy snow, or this system could just straight up miss the area entirely. The uncertainty is just far too high at this point, and hopefully there will be a bit more consistency as these features work their way into the CONUS over the coming days. Additionally, we can`t ignore the fact that this is March we are talking about, and there will assuredly be questions regarding the thermodynamic environment and timing of precipitation. That all being said, have added some snow into the forecast for Saturday night into Sunday, but kept slight chance POPs at the moment, given the uncertainty. Continue to check the forecast for the latest updates each day, but next weekend is definitely something to watch.

About time https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/44093195/nationals-orioles-settle-lengthy-dispute-masn-tv-rights

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0215 AM CST Mon Mar 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging winds and a few tornadoes are possible across parts of the southern and middle Atlantic Seaboard on Wednesday. ...Discussion... Models continue to indicate that the center of a broad and deep, occluding surface cyclone will migrate from the Upper Midwest through the lower Great Lakes region into Quebec during this period. Associated strong lower/mid-tropospheric wind fields are likely to impact a broad area east of the Rockies through the Atlantic Seaboard. Models indicate that this may include, south to southwesterly flow on the order of 50-90+ kt within a moistening warm sector, east of deepening surface troughing to the lee of the Blue Ridge, and perhaps ahead of an eastward surging cold front across parts of the Allegheny Plateau into lower Great Lakes vicinity. Although more favorable low-level moisture return from the Gulf may become cut off by early Wednesday, moistening may be augmented somewhat by a developing return flow off a modifying boundary-layer offshore of the southern Atlantic Seaboard. Models still indicate that this may only become supportive of weak destabilization. However, given the strength of the wind fields and areas of stronger forcing for ascent, there appears at least a conditional risk for severe thunderstorm activity across a broad area. ...Southern through Mid Atlantic... Models indicate that surface dew points may increase into the 60s F in a corridor across the Carolinas through Virginia during the day. Latest NAM forecast soundings suggest that this might occur across parts of the Carolina Piedmont into coastal plain prior to the arrival of a remnant convective band emerging from the eastern Gulf States. Although lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates are forecast to be rather weak, weak near-surface destabilization might become sufficient to support a risk for tornadoes and/or damaging straight line wind gusts, given forecast very large, clockwise curved low-level hodographs. In the wake of this initial band of convection, beneath a developing dry slot, northward moisture advection and insolation to the lee of the Blue Ridge may contribute to modest destabilization by late Wednesday afternoon. It appears that this will be aided by the leading edge of stronger mid-level cooling spreading to the east of the Appalachians, and accompanied by increasing thunderstorm development in the presence of strong deep-layer shear. Although forecast soundings suggest that low-level hodographs may become more modest by this time as the stronger low-level jet core spreads offshore, the environment may still become conducive to supercells with potential to produce severe wind, hail and perhaps a tornado. ..Kerr.. 03/03/2025

SPC day 3 morning outlook makes it sound if there is two distinct threat periods on Wednesday - morning and then late afternoon

All 3 zone issued HWOs from LWX (issued at 411pm) now mention tornado chances for Wednesday DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday Isolated severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging wind gusts are possible on Wednesday. A tornado or two cannot be ruled out as well. Strong west to northwest winds, including gale conditions, are possible on Thursday behind a strong cold front.

Didn't know there will be a full lunar eclipse on the 14th in the very early morning hours

Mention of tornado and supercells in this morning's AFD from LWX .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... By Wednesday morning, a strong, occluded surface low will have tracked to near Chicago, with an accompanying deep upper trough/closed mid-level low occupying much of the eastern half of the CONUS. As large scale ascent downstream of the approaching upper trough starts to overspread the area, a strong low-level jet (around 60-80 knots at 850 hPa) will move in from the southwest. Warm advection driven precipitation associated with this strong low-level jet should move across the area from southwest to northeast during the morning to early afternoon hours. Model soundings within this warm advection regime show a deep moist neutral to slightly stable profile, with very long, curved hodographs. This would likely result in a period of stratiform rain, but a narrow convective line that`s strongly forced on the synoptic scale (by differential cyclonic vorticity advection driven ascent) can`t be ruled out on the back edge of the precipitation shield. If such a line were to materialize, it could pose a threat for strong to severe wind gusts, and possibly even a QLCS tornado. As the stronger low-level jet and associated warm advection depart off to our north and east during the afternoon, we should break out into the warm sector while a mid- level dry slot simultaneously works in aloft. This should enable daytime heating and development of some surface based instability from southwest to northeast during the late morning to afternoon hours. Within the dry slot, model soundings show straight, but very long hodographs, with ample deep layer shear available to any storms that form. Large scale forcing for ascent will be lesser both at low- levels (with the loss of warm advection) and aloft (with the strongest DCVA driven ascent departing off toward the east. The combination of surface heating and gradual height falls aloft may be enough for some additional showers or thunderstorms to form during the afternoon. Storms could also potentially form along the system`s surface cold front, but various models differ on the timing of the cold frontal passage, with some guidance (such as the GFS) moving the front into western portions of the forecast area prior to sunset, while others (such as the Euro and Canadian) hold the frontal passage off until after dark. If storms were to form during the afternoon within the dry slot, supercells primarily capable of producing damaging winds and hail could be possible. As of yesterday morning, SPC highlighted much of the forecast area in a rare day 5 Slight Risk to account for the potential of severe thunderstorms. With ongoing drought across much of the area and very dry conditions over the past week, rainfall with this system looks like it will be largely beneficial in nature, with most guidance showing around a half of an inch to an inch of precipitation. Outside of any thunderstorms, winds will be gusty out of the south, with high temperatures generally in the 60s.

FWIW, Cappucci from CWG has been talking this threat up and mentioned ENH possibility https://x.com/MatthewCappucci/status/1895852340663754874

Well LWX AFD this afternoon likes it LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... High pressure that builds over the region Sunday is forecast to slowly shift off the eastern seaboard through Tuesday. An increasing south to southeasterly flow will lead to the return of above normal temperatures on Tuesday with highs generally in the mid to upper 50s to lower 60s along with mostly dry conditions. A strong frontal system is forecast to impact the region late Tuesday through early Thursday morning. Ahead of the main cold front, a warm front will lift north of the region by late Tuesday evening. Showers may start affecting the region as early as late Tuesday evening, but are most likely on Wednesday. A strong upper level trough going nearly negative combined with strong jet support in both the upper and lower parts of the atmosphere will lead to an increased threat for severe weather on Wednesday. Increasing CAPE due to temperatures forecast to rise into the mid to upper 60s and a favorable shear environment suggests the primary severe threats at this time is damaging wind gusts. Based on recent model guidance, it seems the main threat window for severe weather will be Wednesday into early Wednesday evening when peak heating is maximized and the front is forecast pass through the region. SPC continues to highlight areas along and east of the I-81 in slight risk for severe weather. The cold front is forecast to pass through our region sometime late Wednesday evening. Behind the frontal passage, rising pressures will lead to threat for widespread strong to damaging wind gusts Thursday into early Friday. Wind advisories may be needed Thursday into early Friday. West to northwest winds along with an upper level trough passing overhead will lead to threat for upslope snow showers along the Allgheny front on Thursday. Gradient winds are forecast to slowly weaken on Friday leading to a return of drier and cooler conditions.

I forget, during our severe weather threats, was there a global model that stood out as being "better" than the others?

Morning AFD from LWX LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... High pressure will progress offshore on Tuesday, allowing low-level flow to become southerly. Those southerly winds will start to advect warmer air back into the area, with temperatures climbing into the 50s beneath mostly cloudy skies. By Tuesday night into Wednesday, attention will turn to a dynamic storm system approaching the area from the west. Model guidance is in good agreement that a potent shortwave will eject from the Desert Southwest onto the Central/Southern Plains during the day Tuesday. Strong cyclogenesis will ensue in response, with the resultant surface low tracking northeastward from KS/OK toward the Great Lakes by Wednesday. This system will have a very strong and broad wind field, with southerly winds in advance of the system drawing moisture northward across much of the eastern half of the CONUS. This increase in low-level moisture will result in the development of surface based instability, which when combined with a very strong wind field aloft, raises concerns about severe thunderstorms. Yesterday morning, SPC placed much of the forecast area in a very rare day 6 Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms. While the finer scale details are still yet to be worked out, this is a synoptically evident setup for cool season severe thunderstorms during the day Wednesday. Along with the potential for thunderstorms, we`ll also receive some appreciable rainfall Tuesday night into Wednesday. At the moment, most guidance is showing in the neighborhood of a half of an inch to an inch of rain. Given ongoing drought across much of the area, and dry conditions over the last week, this appears as though it will be a largely beneficial rain. Synoptic scale winds (background winds outside of thunderstorms) could also approach Wind Advisory criteria, both in advance of, and behind the system. Winds will be out of the south ahead of the system on Wednesday, and then west to northwesterly behind the system`s cold front Thursday into Thursday night. Forecast spread begins to increase a bit by Friday, but it`s possible that the strong northwesterly winds could linger a bit into Friday morning.

https://www.weather.gov/lwx/GarrettZoneSplit Garrett county MD is being split in two

Mention of severe thunderstorms in this afternoon's HWO for Wednesday

Yes I have

Thanks all... appreciate it

Heading to England for the first time (first time overseas actually) last week of March. Going to be in the London area... besides the usual touristy attractions, anything interesting to see or do?

Morning AFD from LWX talking it up LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Upper troughing will depart off to the east, and high pressure will build overhead at the surface on Monday. Sunny skies, light winds, and below normal temperatures are expected, with highs in the mid 40s for most (30s mountains). High pressure will progress offshore on Tuesday, causing winds to become southerly. This will lead to a warming trend in temperatures, despite an increase in mid-high level clouds. High temperatures are forecast to be in the 50s for most. A potent storm system will take shape over the center of the country during the day Tuesday, before tracking northeastward into the Great Lakes on Wednesday. Nearly all guidance shows a highly dynamic upper trough ejecting from the Four Corners region toward the Southern Plains Tuesday. As this upper trough closes off, rapid cyclogenesis will ensue over the Plains in response, with low pressure deepening rapidly as it tracks from near KS/OK Tuesday morning to near Chicago by Wednesday morning. A very strong wind field will accompany this storm system, with strong southerly low-level flow drawing moisture northward across much of the eastern half of the CONUS. This increase in low-level moisture is expected to lead to the development of surface based instability. The combination of strong winds aloft combined with surface based instability raises concerns for severe thunderstorms locally during the day Wednesday. Yesterday morning, SPC issued a very rare day 7 outlook for severe thunderstorms that clipped far southern portions of our forecast area. While there`s always a fair amount of uncertainty associated with the forecast this far out, this system checks a lot of boxes synoptically for cool season severe weather, and certainly bears watching over the upcoming week. While we`ll also receive a fair amount of rain Tuesday night into Wednesday, flooding doesn`t appear to be a major concern with this system. The strongest synoptic scale ascent with this system will pass to our northwest into the Great Lakes, and most ensemble members show around a half of an inch to an inch of rain. Even the highest end members show around an inch and a half, which shouldn`t cause major issues, given the ongoing drought, and continued stretch of dry weather we`ve had over the past week. Aside from the severe weather threat, synoptic scale winds may also be a concern. Most guidance shows a 60-80 knot low-level jet at 850 hPa moving through during the day Wednesday, suggesting that there`s some potential for gusts to near Wind Advisory criteria in southerly flow, even outside of any thunderstorms. A strong cold front will move through the area Wednesday night as the system tracks northeastward into the St. Lawrence Valley. Strong cold advection and gusty winds will ensue in post frontal west to northwesterly flow Wednesday night into Thursday. Dry conditions are forecast to the east of the mountains on Wednesday night into Thursday, but upslope rain showers will change over to snow in the Alleghenies as colder air filters in. It will be windy for all on Thursday, with northwesterly gusts potentially nearing Wind Advisory levels.

@Kmlwx

Also talk in this mornings AFD from LWX .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A large surface ridge over the OH Valley moves across the Mid- Atlantic, then out to sea Sunday into the start of next week. Cold and brisk conditions Sunday as highs struggle to reach the upper 30s to low 40s, and northwest winds gust around 25-35 mph. Dry conditions likely through Tuesday. Very cold Sunday night as lows drop to the upper teens to low 20s, with wind chills in the single digits to teens. Temperatures gradually warm through mid week, going from 40s on Monday to 60s on Wednesday. The next chance for widespread precipitation looks to be Wednesday into Thursday when a potent upper trough and strong cold front approach the area. There are still timing differences between the global models, though all show a strong weather system impacting the region. If these trends continue and given the strong kinematic environment in the model guidance, it is possible our area is affected by strong winds, heavy rainfall, and strong to possibly severe thunderstorms. There is still too much uncertainty to speak with much confidence given this is a week away, but it is worth monitoring as we head into next week.

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0402 AM CST Thu Feb 27 2025 Valid 021200Z - 071200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...D6/Tue - East Texas into the Mid/Lower Mississippi Valley... A compact mid-level low will translate east across the Southwest on Sunday which will result in lee cyclogenesis in the southern/central High Plains. As surface high pressure across the Midwest translates east, favorable low-level trajectories and strengthening flow across the Gulf and southern Plains will initiate significant moisture return across Texas. The initial mid-level low will weaken as it moves across the Plains and into the Mid-Mississippi Valley on D5/Monday. However, lee cyclogenesis will likely strengthen Monday afternoon as a larger scale trough approaches the southern Plains. Shortwave ridging will likely keep the dryline capped on Monday with continued moistening beneath the capping inversion as low-level moisture advection continues. By 12Z Tuesday, moisture recovery across the western Gulf should be complete with 70F dewpoints forecast near the Gulf Coast by both GFS and ECMWF ensembles. Confidence in the upper-level pattern is increasing as the ECMWF and EC Ensembles have been consistent with an amplified mid-level pattern across the central and southern Plains now for several consecutive runs. In addition, the GFS/GEFS has trended toward the more amplified ECMWF solution. As the confidence in the overall pattern increases, the confidence for a significant severe weather threat has also increased and 30% severe weather probabilities have been added from East Texas to central Mississippi. While specifics will remain uncertain until the event draws closer, the potential for multiple rounds of severe convection including supercells, clusters, and likely an eventual squall line will likely bring a threat for all severe weather hazards including strong tornadoes. ...D7/Wed - Carolinas into the Southeast... The ECMWF/ECS, which has been several days ahead of other extended guidance on with this upcoming pattern, has trended toward greater moisture penetration into the Southeast US and east of the Appalachians. Low to mid 60s dewpoints in the presence of a very strong wind field will support a large area of severe weather threat from the Southeast to the Carolinas and perhaps into parts of the Mid-Atlantic. Storm mode and specific hazards will be impacted by prior day convection and the overall evolution of the deepening surface low and associated cold front, but a great enough threat exists for 15% severe weather probabilities for D7/Wednesday. ..Bentley.. 02/27/2025

SE portion of the LWX CWA outlooked on the Day 7 from SPC

Until the playoffs