yoda

00z GFS is lulz tonight

Lol that will be gone at 06z

Bye Texas lol

Losing by 40 ftmfl lol

Penguins 5pts back after a win and Caps loss today

Alabama/Maryland on Monday

Looks like Maryland is the last team in the region still in lol ETA: forgot WVU still in

New Day 1... wow. The huge MOD risk from the Day 2 basically disappeared into a small MOD risk in SE NC/NE SC... even the ENH risk area is smaller. The 45 percent contour and hatched wind are gone... down to large 30 percent now. Large 30 percent hail gone... down to large 15 percent. Disco explains why pretty well too

Day 1 OTLK has 5% hail reach DC metro and south and southwest down into i81 corridor

Jeff disagrees strongly https://mobile.twitter.com/VORTEXJeff/status/1372373456629731330

Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Birmingham AL 248 PM CDT Wed Mar 17 2021 ALC073-172015- /O.CON.KBMX.TO.W.0015.000000T0000Z-210317T2015Z/ Jefferson AL- 248 PM CDT Wed Mar 17 2021 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 315 PM CDT FOR NORTH CENTRAL JEFFERSON COUNTY... At 247 PM CDT, a confirmed tornado was located near Cardiff, or near Sumiton, moving northeast at 30 mph. HAZARD...Damaging tornado and quarter size hail. SOURCE...Emergency management confirmed tornado. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. Locations impacted include... Gardendale, Adamsville, Graysville, Brookside, West Jefferson, Cardiff, Sayre and Partridge Crossroads.

Confirmed TOG SE of Miller, AL in Marengo County and another TOG near Quinton/Dora AL

**** Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Birmingham AL 241 PM CDT Wed Mar 17 2021 ALC125-172000- /O.CON.KBMX.TO.W.0016.000000T0000Z-210317T2000Z/ Tuscaloosa AL- 241 PM CDT Wed Mar 17 2021 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 PM CDT FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TUSCALOOSA COUNTY... At 241 PM CDT, a confirmed large and extremely dangerous tornado was located near Shelton State Community College, or 9 miles south of Tuscaloosa, moving northeast at 30 mph. This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW! HAZARD...Damaging tornado. SOURCE...Public confirmed tornado. IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris may be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be destroyed. Considerable damage to homes, businesses, and vehicles is likely and complete destruction is possible. Locations impacted include... Tuscaloosa, Moundville, Coaling, University Mall, McFarland Mall, Shelton State Community College, Tuscaloosa Amphitheater, Bryant Denny Stadium, Englewood, Little Sandy, Maxwell, University Of Alabama Quad, Taylorville, Hull, Mound State Park, Duncanville and Stillman College. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... To repeat, a large, extremely dangerous and potentially deadly tornado is on the ground. To protect your life, TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris.

evere Weather Statement National Weather Service Birmingham AL 235 PM CDT Wed Mar 17 2021 ALC091-172015- /O.CON.KBMX.TO.W.0014.000000T0000Z-210317T2015Z/ Marengo AL- 235 PM CDT Wed Mar 17 2021 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 315 PM CDT FOR SOUTHEASTERN MARENGO COUNTY... At 235 PM CDT, a confirmed tornado was located over Wayne, or 12 miles south of Linden, moving northeast at 35 mph. HAZARD...Damaging tornado and quarter size hail. SOURCE...Weather spotters confirmed tornado. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. Locations impacted include... Linden, Thomaston, Sweet Water, Dayton, Wayne, Freddie Jones Field, Miller, Dixons Mill, Consul, Magnolia, Calvary and Octagon.

Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Birmingham AL 234 PM CDT Wed Mar 17 2021 ALC037-172000- /O.CON.KBMX.TO.W.0013.000000T0000Z-210317T2000Z/ Coosa AL- 234 PM CDT Wed Mar 17 2021 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 PM CDT FOR NORTH CENTRAL COOSA COUNTY... At 234 PM CDT, a confirmed tornado was located over Weogufka, moving northeast at 30 mph. HAZARD...Damaging tornado. SOURCE...Radar confirmed tornado. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. Locations impacted include... Weogufka.

uh oh Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Birmingham AL 235 PM CDT Wed Mar 17 2021 ALC125-172000- /O.CON.KBMX.TO.W.0016.000000T0000Z-210317T2000Z/ Tuscaloosa AL- 235 PM CDT Wed Mar 17 2021 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 PM CDT FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TUSCALOOSA COUNTY... At 235 PM CDT, a confirmed tornado was located over Moundville, or 12 miles south of Tuscaloosa, moving northeast at 30 mph. HAZARD...Damaging tornado and ping pong ball size hail. SOURCE...Public confirmed tornado. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. Locations impacted include... Tuscaloosa, Moundville, Coaling, University Mall, McFarland Mall, Shelton State Community College, Tuscaloosa Amphitheater, Bryant Denny Stadium, Englewood, Little Sandy, Maxwell, University Of Alabama Quad, Taylorville, Hull, Mound State Park, Duncanville and Stillman College.

Mesoscale Discussion 0209 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Wed Mar 17 2021 Areas affected...Central AL Concerning...Tornado Watch 29...33... Valid 171924Z - 172100Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 29, 33 continues. SUMMARY...A corridor more favorable for the development of strong tornadoes may be evolving across central AL. DISCUSSION...Radar imagery from BMX, GWX, and MOB continues to show a cluster of supercells over west-central AL. The downstream air mass is characterized by temperatures in the low/mid 70s and dewpoints in the upper 60s. As noted in the recent BMX sounding, this air mass is less buoyant than farther west (along the central MS/AL border) where this cluster initially developed. However, in contrast to the slightly less favorable thermodynamics, surface winds here are more southeasterly, veering to southerly in the low-levels, and then southwesterly farther aloft. This is resulting in considerable low-level vertical shear. Recent VAD profile from BMX sampled 350+ m2/s2 of 0-1 km storm-relative helicity. Given the already organized character of these storms, potential exists for the development of strong tornadoes if a more discrete nature can be maintained. ..Mosier.. 03/17/2021 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...

Well hmmm -- from this afternoon's LWX AFD re the chance of some storms @high risk @Kmlwx

Well if I read the article I would know lol -- https://public.wmo.int/en/media/press-release/wmo-hurricane-committee-retires-tropical-cyclone-names-and-ends-use-of-greek

So... then we get Hurricane #21? Like after all the names are used, we just go to the next number in line? As in if William was the 20th name on the list that is

TOR Watch up for SW MO/NE OK/W AR till 8pm

True... hopefully the increase in the LLJ later this evening into overnight doesn't make the situation even worse

Written by Broyles Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1231 PM CDT Wed Mar 17 2021 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN GEORGIA INTO MUCH OF SOUTH CAROLINA AND NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... A regional outbreak of severe storms and tornadoes is possible on Thursday from parts of east-central Georgia northeastward across South Carolina and North Carolina. Significant tornadoes, wind damage and large hail will be possible from morning into afternoon. Severe thunderstorms will also be possible from parts of the eastern Gulf Coast into the southern and central Appalachians. ...North Carolina/South Carolina/Georgia/Virginia/Florida... A positively-tilted upper-level low will move into the Tennessee Valley on Thursday as a 75 to 90 kt mid-level jet moves across the Southeast and Carolinas. At the surface, a low will move eastward into the central Appalachians. At 12Z, a warm front will be located from northern Georgia eastward across northern South Carolina. This boundary will move northward across central and eastern North Carolina during the morning. To the south of this front, surface dewpoints across the warm sector will be in the mid to upper 60s F. As surface temperatures warm, a pocket of moderate instability is expected to develop to the south of the warm front across eastern North Carolina by late morning. Convective development will be aided by the low-level jet. Severe thunderstorms associated with large hail, wind damage and a tornado threat, is expected during the mid morning hours. Further to the west, a band of large-scale ascent associated with the approaching upper-level system will overspread the central Appalachians around midday. Thunderstorms are expected to initiate just ahead of this band of ascent around midday and move eastward into the Appalachian foothills during the early afternoon. Ahead of the storms, the environment will consist of MLCAPE in the 2000 to 2500 J/kg range, 0-6 km shear of 50 to 60 kt and storm relative helicities of 300 to 350 m2/s2. This will support intense supercell development. Tornadoes, wind damage and large hail will be likely with the stronger storms. A long-track tornado will be possible along or in the vicinity of the warm front. The time of maximum threat is forecast to be in the 18Z to 22Z time window. A regional outbreak of severe storms, along with several significant tornadoes are expected from discrete cells that develop across the warm sector from central North Carolina southward across much of South Carolina. Further to the southwest into Georgia, a line of strong to severe thunderstorms is expected to move into the area form the west during the morning. A corridor of moderate instability is forecast to develop just ahead of this line by late morning with instability continuing to increase through the afternoon. This line of storms will have access to a strong low-level jet, extending northeastward across south-central and eastern Georgia. the environment should have MLCAPE of 1500 to 2000 J/kg along with 0-6 Km shear of 60 to 70 kt. This will be favorable for supercell and severe bowing line segments. Supercells that form in the line may produce tornadoes, wind damage and large hail. A potential for significant tornadoes will exist with cells that form at the north end of gaps in the line. This band of storms is expected to be accompanied by widespread wind damage, moving across eastern Georgia and South Carolina during the mid to late afternoon. Wind gusts of greater than 65 kt will be possible with the more intense bowing line segments. The southern part of the band may extend as far south as the Florida Panhandle, where a severe threat will exist in the morning and early afternoon.

Real quick update -- New DAY 2 continues with large MOD risk from GA into NC 45% hatched wind introduced in E GA/SC into S NC