yoda

Yeah... not happening lol

Looks like frost or freeze warnings will be needed Thursday night and Friday night... both days have highs of 40 to 45... yuck

Surprised MD eliminated in the Sweet 16

Tornado Warning MDC013-021-282100- /O.NEW.KLWX.TO.W.0002.210328T2036Z-210328T2100Z/ BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Tornado Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 436 PM EDT Sun Mar 28 2021 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Tornado Warning for... Northwestern Carroll County in north central Maryland... North central Frederick County in north central Maryland... * Until 500 PM EDT. * At 436 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located near Thurmont, moving east at 50 mph. HAZARD...Tornado. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...For those in the direct path of a tornado touchdown, flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Damage to roofs, siding, and windows may occur. Mobile homes may be damaged or destroyed. Tree damage is likely. * This dangerous storm will be near... Emmitsburg around 440 PM EDT. Taneytown around 450 PM EDT. Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include Harney, Keysville and Sabillasville. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. && LAT...LON 3964 7699 3963 7743 3969 7748 3972 7736 3972 7695 TIME...MOT...LOC 2036Z 263DEG 42KT 3967 7740 TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED

Tornado warning in Carroll and Frederick county in MD

Well seems like parts of the line in MD are verifying severe as the statement on the SWS says "history of producing damage and wind gusts to 60mph"

LWX morning disco re severe

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 416 AM EDT Sun Mar 28 2021 VAZ507-508-281630- /O.NEW.KLWX.WI.Y.0006.210328T1400Z-210329T0800Z/ Northern Virginia Blue Ridge-Central Virginia Blue Ridge- Including the cities of Big Meadows and Wintergreen 416 AM EDT Sun Mar 28 2021 ...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM EDT MONDAY... * WHAT...Southwest winds becoming west to northwest late this afternoon and tonight 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 55 mph expected. * WHERE...Northern Virginia Blue Ridge and Central Virginia Blue Ridge. * WHEN...From 10 AM this morning to 4 AM EDT Monday. * IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result.

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 416 AM EDT Sun Mar 28 2021 MDZ001-003-004-501-502-VAZ025>031-040-501-503>505-WVZ050>053-055- 501>506-281630- /O.NEW.KLWX.WI.Y.0006.210328T2200Z-210329T0800Z/ Garrett-Washington-Frederick MD-Extreme Western Allegany- Central and Eastern Allegany-Augusta-Rockingham-Shenandoah- Frederick VA-Page-Warren-Clarke-Rappahannock-Northern Fauquier- Western Highland-Eastern Highland-Western Loudoun-Hampshire- Morgan-Berkeley-Jefferson-Hardy-Western Grant-Eastern Grant- Western Mineral-Eastern Mineral-Western Pendleton- Eastern Pendleton- Including the cities of Mountain Lake Park, Oakland, Grantsville, Hagerstown, Frederick, Ballenger Creek, Frostburg, Cumberland, Staunton, Waynesboro, Stuarts Draft, Harrisonburg, Strasburg, Woodstock, Mount Jackson, New Market, Winchester, Luray, Shenandoah, Stanley, Front Royal, Berryville, Washington, Warrenton, Hightown, Monterey, Purcellville, Romney, Paw Paw, Martinsburg, Charles Town, Shepherdstown, Moorefield, Bayard, Mount Storm, Petersburg, Elk Garden, Antioch, Keyser, New Creek, Ridgeville, Russelldale, Headsville, Fort Ashby, Riverton, Brandywine, Franklin, Oak Flat, Ruddle, and Sugar Grove 416 AM EDT Sun Mar 28 2021 ...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EDT MONDAY... * WHAT...West to northwest winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 55 mph expected. * WHERE...Western Maryland, eastern West Virginia, the Allegheny and Potomac Highlands, and the Shenandoah Valley. * WHEN...From 6 PM this evening to 4 AM EDT Monday. * IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result.

Let's get rrrrready for more WIND! URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 416 AM EDT Sun Mar 28 2021 DCZ001-MDZ005-006-008-011-013-014-503>508-VAZ052>054-506-281630- /O.NEW.KLWX.WI.Y.0006.210329T0000Z-210329T0800Z/ District of Columbia-Carroll-Northern Baltimore-Cecil- Southern Baltimore-Prince Georges-Anne Arundel- Northwest Montgomery-Central and Southeast Montgomery- Northwest Howard-Central and Southeast Howard-Northwest Harford- Southeast Harford-Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park-Fairfax- Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria-Eastern Loudoun- Including the cities of Washington, Eldersburg, Westminster, Reisterstown, Cockeysville, Elkton, Baltimore, Bowie, Suitland-Silver Hill, Clinton, College Park, Greenbelt, Laurel, Camp Springs, Glen Burnie, Annapolis, Severn, South Gate, Severna Park, Arnold, Odenton, Germantown, Damascus, Bethesda, Rockville, Gaithersburg, Silver Spring, Lisbon, Columbia, Ellicott City, Jarrettsville, Aberdeen, Dale City, Manassas, Woodbridge, Lake Ridge, Montclair, Reston, Herndon, Annandale, Centreville, Chantilly, McLean, Franconia, Arlington, Alexandria, Falls Church, Leesburg, Ashburn, and Sterling 416 AM EDT Sun Mar 28 2021 ...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EDT MONDAY... * WHAT...West to northwest winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph expected. * WHERE...The Washington and Baltimore Metropolitan areas as well as north-central and northeastern Maryland and northern Virginia. * WHEN...From 8 PM this evening to 4 AM EDT Monday.

Hatched wind remains for our area in new Day 1 morning update... along with 5% tor

Very interesting re the Centreville storm from earlier that we were wondering why no TW

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 65 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 PM CDT Sat Mar 27 2021 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Northern Alabama Southern Middle Tennessee * Effective this Saturday night and Sunday morning from 1125 PM until 600 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 85 mph likely SUMMARY...Fast-moving bowing QLCS should spread across southern Middle Tennessee and far northern Alabama. A trailing QLCS with embedded bows may spread east from northern Mississippi across the rest of northern Alabama through the pre-dawn hours.

Good question. I went back to the earlier TW's from other offices and they do indeed have the word "CAPABLE" in there that the Memphis office does not. It does look really weird ETA: I know its a busy night for them... but I just tweeted them and asked.

They didnt even have TOR... POSSIBLE at all either

Still no TW

@nj2va Did I see you mention that you might go to Opening Day Nats? I might go with some family... but looking at the weather forecast, I'm casting doubt the game gets played

Um... what? Zone Forecast Product National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 439 AM EDT Fri Mar 26 2021 DCZ001-VAZ054-261200- District of Columbia-Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria- Including the cities of Washington, Arlington, Alexandria, and Falls Church 439 AM EDT Fri Mar 26 2021 ...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING... .REST OF THE OVERNIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms. Lows in the lower 60s. South winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent. .TODAY...Partly sunny with a chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms in the morning, then sunny in the afternoon. Highs around 80. Southwest winds 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph, becoming west with gusts up to 45 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent. .TONIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows around 50. Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 30 mph, diminishing to around 5 mph after midnight. .SATURDAY...Sunny. Highs in the mid 70s. Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph. .SATURDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy in the evening, then mostly cloudy with showers likely after midnight. Lows in the mid 50s. Southeast winds 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 60 percent. .SUNDAY...Showers with a chance of thunderstorms. Highs in the lower 70s. Chance of rain near 100 percent. .SUNDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 40s. .MONDAY...Sunny. Highs in the upper 50s. .MONDAY NIGHT...Clear. Lows in the lower 40s. .TUESDAY...Mostly sunny with a 30 percent chance of showers. Highs in the lower 60s. .TUESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of showers. Lows in the upper 40s. .WEDNESDAY...Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain and snow showers. Highs in the upper 60s. Chance of precipitation 30 percent. .WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers. Lows in the mid 40s. .THURSDAY...Partly sunny with a 50 percent chance of showers. Highs in the lower 50s.

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Fri Mar 26 2021 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM A PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS INTO THE CAROLINAS AND MIDDLE ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms are possible from the Carolinas into the Middle Atlantic region Sunday afternoon. A few strong to severe storms will also be possible from the central and southern Appalachian region into a portion of the Tennessee Valley and Southeast States. ...Mid Atlantic into the Carolinas... An intense low-level jet will shift from the southern and central Appalachians into the Carolinas and Mid Atlantic during the day in association with a progressive northern-stream shortwave trough. A warm front will move northward through the Mid Atlantic during the day prior to the arrival of a cold front. Upper 50s to low 60s F dewpoints will advect through the warm sector contributing to modest instability as the surface layer warms with up to 1000 J/kg MLCAPE possible. Thunderstorms are expected to develop along and just ahead of the cold front as it advances into this region during the late afternoon and early evening. This activity will be embedded within strong deep layer wind profiles that will support bowing structures as well as a few supercells. Damaging wind will be the main threats, but a few tornadoes and some hail will also be possible before the front moves offshore during the evening.

oh hello there hatching.... on Day 3 Day 3 Prob. Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area SIG SEVERE 59,374 15,628,657 Charlotte, NC...Washington, DC...Virginia Beach, VA...Raleigh, NC...Norfolk, VA...

And we begin

FWIW, 00z NAM shows intrigue for Sunday afternoon (18z to 21z soundings).... with some showing up at DCA/EZF

ENH risk with 10 percent TOR in W TN -- includes Memphis and is literally knocking on Nashville's door Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0105 AM CDT Fri Mar 26 2021 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A PORTION OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms are possible Saturday across the lower Mississippi through Tennessee Valley regions. All hazards are possible including large hail, damaging wind and tornadoes. Other severe storms are possible across a portion of the Midwest with isolated damaging wind and large hail the main threats. ...Lower Mississippi through Tennessee Valley regions... Early Saturday morning a warm front will likely extend across the central or northern portions of the Gulf Coast states. It is likely that elevated thunderstorms will be in progress within a broad warm advection regime north of this boundary, mainly across a portion of the TN Valley. Some of this activity could pose a risk for mainly hail before shifting northeast and weakening with time. Under the influence of a broad fetch of southwesterly low-level winds, richer moisture with surface dewpoints in the low to mid 60s F will advect northward into this region contributing to a corridor of moderate instability with up to 1500 J/kg MLCAPE along and south of the warm front. Additional storms are expected develop during the evening within an evolving warm advection regime accompanying a strengthening southwesterly low-level jet. Strengthening vertical wind profiles associated with an approaching northern-stream upper trough will favor organized storms including supercells. Some of these storms will be rooted close enough to the surface to pose a risk for tornadoes given expected favorable low-level hodographs. Otherwise damaging wind and large hail will also be possible. A cold front accompanying the northern stream shortwave trough will approach this region from the northwest and will contribute to the development of additional storms overnight, likely consolidating into lines and clusters with the primary severe threat eventually transitioning to isolated damaging wind.